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Naked S/R intent trading

  • #21
  • May 26, 2009 10:09am May 26, 2009 10:09am
Quoting daytrading
My personal view is that this way of decision making is very vague.
Mine too, and whilst cannon fodder is needed in the markets, its a shame it is touted so widely on these boards as newbies would be led to believe it is sufficient to use as a representation.

My highlighting of the subject was twofold. 1) to see if I had missed something new and 2) to hopefully make any new traders realise it is not the whole picture.

1) is not looking likely!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #22
  • May 26, 2009 10:14am May 26, 2009 10:14am
eSignal volumes are very comparable to many MT4 broker volume feeds

furthermore, futures volumes (exchange traded) are also very comparable in scope and pattern to spot tick volumes on many MT4 brokers

feel free to check them out for yourself of course it's still not the whole picture, but I think they're (tick volumes) extremely helpful, most importantly around S/R levels
  • #23
  • May 26, 2009 10:20am May 26, 2009 10:20am
Quoting thewasp

My highlighting of the subject was ... to hopefully make any new traders realise it is not the whole picture.
I'm a relatively new trader Wasp. My own view is s/r and price action are all that is needed, although i am only looking at the daily at the moment.

I do however include the 20EMA on all my charts as i think it gives/can give supporting indication of where price is heading. However the 20 (as all MA's) is only really relevant in a trending market IMO.

KillPhil is absolutley right about systems. A squiggly line cross system was my first real experience of forex, and it was obvioulsy BS, but i don't think many people are immune to the 'get rich quick' sales patter which this industry suffers from, and what new traders like myself need (or should recognise they need) is a wake up call.

I think i've had mine, but i'm only beginning to learn, so i think this discussion is relevant.

If you get the time to share your approach in more detail, i'll be listening.

Cheers Wasp

Dan
  • #24
  • May 26, 2009 10:21am May 26, 2009 10:21am
I have two brokers (MT4) charts to hand... volume comparison time..

The similarity is uncanny
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Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #25
  • May 26, 2009 10:22am May 26, 2009 10:22am
Quoting thewasp
Mine too, and whilst cannon fodder is needed in the markets, its a shame it is touted so widely on these boards as newbies would be led to believe it is sufficient to use as a representation.

My highlighting of the subject was twofold. 1) to see if I had missed something new and 2) to hopefully make any new traders realise it is not the whole picture.

1) is not looking likely!
Since the retail trading community seems to spread like an infectious disease (excuse the analogy), it would seem an almost impossible endeavour to cure all newbies simultaneously from committing the most stupid beginners mistakes.

This fact alone is the markets greatest inefficiency. Just imagine all traders around the globe had the same information in order to trade the 'right' direction at the same time in all markets - EMH would set in and consequently nobody would profit from any transaction.

My premise is that although it fills me with satisfaction to every now and then get a new participant on the right track, I know at the same time that one hundred new traders pop up who keep paying for it.

As you mentioned in your first post - we should be grateful for the others mistakes (without rubbing it in too hard, of course).

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #26
  • May 26, 2009 10:26am May 26, 2009 10:26am
Quoting thewasp
I have two brokers (MT4) charts to hand... volume comparison time..

The similarity is uncanny
Put an MA on the same two charts and you find the same uncanny similarity....or any other indicator for that matter.

Trade execution volume or tick volume is nothing more than another indicator - good if you know how to read it, bad if you're looking for a foolproof way to enter/exit trades.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #27
  • May 26, 2009 10:26am May 26, 2009 10:26am
Quoting AstonDan
I do however include the 20EMA on all my charts as i think it gives/can give supporting indication of where price is heading. However the 20 (as all MA's) is only really relevant in a trending market IMO.
open a 2nd chart exactly the same as the first. Remove the MA, look hard, can you not see the same thing that the MA is telling you?
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #28
  • May 26, 2009 10:29am May 26, 2009 10:29am
Quoting daytrading
Put an MA on the same two charts and you find the same uncanny similarity....or any other indicator for that matter.

Trade execution volume or tick volume is nothing more than another indicator - good if you know how to read it, bad if you're looking for a foolproof way to enter/exit trades.

regards
daytrading
Open an NQ chart through IB and again with another broker and the volume will be EXACTLY the same.... gives a whole new (better, properly informed) perspective, IMO!

As KillPhil said somewhere, its like seeing a tenth of each candle, sure, with enough skill, you could make something with what you have, but why make things more difficult. IMO!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #29
  • May 26, 2009 10:42am May 26, 2009 10:42am
Wasp,

I don't like to be the fly in the ointment here but this sounds to me as the typical 'confirmation bias' employed by traders.

Even Newtonian theories are nowadays believed to be only very close approximations (in contrast to the previous assumption of absolute correctness). The reason for that is that each new test is based on different conditions - even if the difference is miniscule. For the same reasons in the field of TA, it pays to try and falsify rather than to confirm. The more a theory (or method) holds up against attempts to refute it, the more chance it has to work over the long run.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #30
  • May 26, 2009 10:47am May 26, 2009 10:47am
Quoting daytrading
Wasp,

I don't like to be the fly in the ointment here but this sounds to me as the typical 'confirmation bias' employed by traders.

Even Newtonian theories are nowadays believed to be only very close approximations (in contrast to the previous assumption of absolute correctness)....
I appreciate your point, but its not always minuscule is it. A slight difference in futures volumes is a far cries difference to a whole bar or two difference daily between 2 metatraders.

One member on the VSA thread yesterday (I think) said how his volume didn't come close to anybodies who had posted charts. That's a bit much.

Splitting hairs over futures volumes is a whole different kettle of fish when it comes to metatrader tick volume.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #31
  • May 26, 2009 10:56am May 26, 2009 10:56am
Quoting thewasp
Why thanks there Leonlorenzo, cheers for the answer, explains a thing or two.

you CAN get real volume from a large bank or broker, but you have to be an institutional type trader and be willing to fork out forty-fifty grand a year for it. just saying.
  • #32
  • May 26, 2009 10:57am May 26, 2009 10:57am
Quoting thewasp
I appreciate your point, but its not always minuscule is it. A slight difference in futures volumes is a far cries difference to a whole bar or two difference daily between 2 metatraders.

One member on the VSA thread yesterday (I think) said how his volume didn't come close to anybodies who had posted charts. That's a bit much.

Splitting hairs over futures volumes is a whole different kettle of fish when it comes to metatrader tick volume.
I think I have explained myself slightly wrong here. What I meant was not the difference of a specific occasion between brokers (or data providers), but the difference of each occasion when trading - regardless of brokers (even assuming they all show the same data - like a 50SMA for example).

Each new sample (or trade) in a test series underlies (slightly) different conditions. The more precision (through confirmation bias) you are trying to squeeze out of it mathematically, the higher the error rate will be.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #33
  • May 26, 2009 11:11am May 26, 2009 11:11am
Quoting blacksun1
you CAN get real volume from a large bank or broker, but you have to be an institutional type trader and be willing to fork out forty-fifty grand a year for it. just saying.
Nah, don't believe it.. I have it on good authority that a large speculator in sterling/yen is the Russian CB (don't ask me why). You really think they are going to hand over that data? Russians! Its just too widespread to get the full picture anyhow. IMO!

On t2w, next to me, the biggest advocater of the irrelevance of volume is a 25 year bank trader, he can't and doesn't use it and will tell you you can't quite emphatically. The only thing they have more than us is the order books of the bank clients.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #34
  • May 26, 2009 12:11pm May 26, 2009 12:11pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
If you go here you'll see all the Volume contributors for esginal GTIS volume data feed: http://kb.esignalcentral.com/display...RL=&r=0.233349. If that doesn't work just go here: http://kb.esignalcentral.com/ and search GTIS.

I was impressed when I saw the list which includes Credit Suisse, Lloyds, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, ABN-Amro, and a multitude of other banks. True I didn't see EBS or Reuters, but given the amount of banks on there, I assumed that Volume would be reprentative of what other banks are doing.

VSA is attempting to track smart money by using Tick Volume, so while the Volume received from esignal might not be the true accurate volume, VSA is looking at the volume relative to price and relative to the effect that volume had on price in the past.

I've only been trading live for a little over a year, so I'm still a newbie at Forex, but I don't like unknowns in trading strategies. Thus, if any of you guys find fault in the above reasoning, please do comment. So I don't think the potential flaw in VSA is the lack of trusting the tick volume displayed, I think the potential flaw with VSA could be dark pools which I asked in the VSA thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1442) and response was here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1460).

In any case, personally I feel developing naked trading techniques is the best way to go, because pure price is what everyone sees (so believe me I have no problem tossing Volume out the window even though I've spent quite a few months studying it if in the long run I see a potential issue with it and risk losing my capital). Price is constant and cannot be interpreted any differently.

By the way, I did go over to the T2W forum, and registered and am looking for naked trading threads. Are there any specific ones that are your favorite wasp?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #35
  • May 26, 2009 12:35pm May 26, 2009 12:35pm
Potential setups is a good one for calls. When they are potential not hindsight...

I would go to the journals or look at the threads he made for ones for insight/education.
  • #36
  • May 26, 2009 12:54pm May 26, 2009 12:54pm
What's the one Nic likes Phil about S/R I did? I can't remember and of course have no multinick to login as I was banned!

For price based styles, insights from pro's and general info, look at posts and journals by people like...

KillPhil
Firewalker
dbheonix
Trader_Dante
Omni
Gammajammer
Mr Gecko
Gooseman
myself

Firealker and dbpheonix are both students of Wyckoff essentially and not really forex traders (e-mini traders) but technically amazing.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #37
  • May 26, 2009 1:04pm May 26, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting thewasp
Okay, going to rephrase...

'It is my understanding volume for spot FX cannot be used as it is unregulated. I have joined this forum to look around and see plenty of volume based threads and journals (volume, VWAP, VSA). Could someone kindly explain please how they do this since there is no true representation of volume in spot FX?'

Also, lots of members say they 'trade naked' yet have volume, fibs and even MA's on their charts. Is naked trading not just price alone?

thanks
Wasp,

I think you have asked the correct answer. I like people asking the straight answer or spit it directly to the face. [Tell 'em wasp!] emm...but I however hope you'll get your answers.


My short experience with forums ----> This forum is just like other forums, full with people want to make a name from it (very slowly..and strategically...and i am not saying that you are the one, wasp) and at a later time then will make money from our uninitiated new friends. That's the motive..nothing else.
I am bored..
  • #38
  • May 26, 2009 1:20pm May 26, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting thewasp
Nah, don't believe it.. I have it on good authority that a large speculator in sterling/yen is the Russian CB (don't ask me why). You really think they are going to hand over that data? Russians! Its just too widespread to get the full picture anyhow. IMO!

On t2w, next to me, the biggest advocater of the irrelevance of volume is a 25 year bank trader, he can't and doesn't use it and will tell you you can't quite emphatically. The only thing they have more than us is the order books of the bank clients.
There are people using it successfully, so uh.. he's wrong? Unless they're just getting consistently lucky on the same entries for the same reason over and over.

Btw, appeals to authority are a logical fallacy
  • #39
  • May 26, 2009 1:49pm May 26, 2009 1:49pm
Are we on page three already and I missed out.
The thread of yours I learned SR from was called Trading By Price Wasp Stylee.

I am happy to go and fetch the material, put it in a doc and put it here for people to download if you like? Seeing as you need to be a member to read it. Let me know.

Here's my 10cents for what its worth.
Traders like people are all different, and everyone has to develop their own style, timeframe and rules. The only thing consistently true of all good traders is money management, perseverence and hard work.

Too many people think they can come to these forums or websites or schools, copy someone elses strategy and then instantly make money.
It just doesnt happen. You have to learn stuff for yourself and then find a way to make it work for you and if it doesn't then you discard it.
You have to work, read, learn, try, work harder and keep going and never, ever, quit. And it takes time, a lot of it and lots of patience too.

Nic
  • #40
  • May 26, 2009 1:50pm May 26, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting smittens4212
There are people using it successfully, so uh.. he's wrong? Unless they're just getting consistently lucky on the same entries for the same reason over and over.

Btw, appeals to authority are a logical fallacy
Well thanks for that, you have convinced me. Good argument. Way to go showing me the truth.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
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