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Naked S/R intent trading

  • #1
  • First Post: May 25, 2009 5:24pm May 25, 2009 5:24pm
I am confused. I have been a member on another forum for some time and been looking and lurking here for a while and to be honest, am confused, shocked and amused.

1: Volume

This one really gets me... For a start, metatrader covers only that brokers volume. Esignal on the other hand, 'covers 300 brokers'. Yet, their own website states its only a proportion of the market. I don't know what the general concensus on this site is for movers of the market, but, IMO, the volume that matters (CB's, IB's and HF's) will not go through the brokers e-signal has data for.

Sure, you may be able to profit from it, but you aren't profiting from volume analysis or true VWAP. It's just impossible. It's like refereeing a football match only watching one half the pitch.

2: Naked trading

As traders, I am sure you have all seen 'wall street' and 'rogue trader'. At their disposal is the ticker, a pen, a pad and others reactions. Sure, we have charts now but volume, fibs and moving averages are not naked trading. Naked trading is price. That's it. Volume means squat in spot currencies and if you need a moving average you're too thick to be trading. As for fibs, yeah right!

-----------

Whilst a member of the other forum, there was a member on an old thread for live calls on cable who came along, faded everyone's positions (their stops were his targets) and he raped the lot of them...

There seems to be very few pro's on here (bank or hedge or prop traders) to question and point out to members errors of their ways, so if I was to suggest anything, go over to t2w or elite trader, run searches for prop firm and bank traders, check out people like gammajammer and wasp (me); Trader_dante, TWI, and go back a few years and see the bigger picture and pro views.

If I were a newbie, that's just what I'd do here. Been watching and you don't even need a chart whilst watching the herd here (not exclusive to just here either).

I am sure I will get slated and asked to prove myself etc as I have only one 'voucher', which, I could if I have too through varying means but I would seriously like to know if someone could answer my confusion.

Just a view from a lurker new to here (but certainly not trading). In the meantime, thank you, your crowd behaviour, herd mentality and bad analysis provides the greatest indication of what position to take the opposite side of, so cheers!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #2
  • May 26, 2009 4:37am May 26, 2009 4:37am
Hi Wasp,

I'm surprised you haven't had any responses to this yet - maybe a few people are looking at themsleves in the mirror after reading your post!

I've read a lot of your posts on T2W, and have lurked on Dante's thread for a while. I even tried reading Socrates posts this weekend but they just seemed to never actually get anywhere.

Your approach appears very simple (S/R & price) but i expect your thought process and experience is far removed from 'simple'.

I am always impressed by people who cut through the BS and was wondering whether you would be willing to discuss your method/approach further on here? I don't mean support/resistance, but more how you interpret those areas into a reaction/order?

Do you simply use price action formations (pins, engulfing patterns etc) at these levels, or are you looking at an entry based purely on the level? Perhaps you are not even conforming to these traditionaly accepted patterns but instead are just reading the bars on individual merit. Or even further, perhaps you don't even care about the bars but the 'pure' market behind it.

Either way, it would be great to hear more from you.

Cheers
Dan
  • #3
  • May 26, 2009 5:03am May 26, 2009 5:03am
Quoting thewasp
[color=Navy]I am confused....
Well said. Is that why you're posting in the brain-dead gbp/jpy-thread trying to grasp the sentiment of amateurs? Seems like fun
Measure twice, cut once
  • #4
  • May 26, 2009 8:52am May 26, 2009 8:52am
It's all to do with the journey into trading. This is my opinion for why most people don't just use S/D S/R.

I guarantee, 50+% of this forum typed into Google "get rich quick" saw a trading advert (FAPturbo or some rubbish) then once they realised that the system was rubbish continued their search for an easy trading system which requires no effort. To support this fact all you have to do is look here and see how many people are reading the system section compared to other parts of the site. (t2w in particular had this problem after they increased their Google rank to #1 for most phrases).

Now this is completely different to what people managing real money went through. My opinion is most people had two or more paths to riches;

They grew up in a bad background - these people had nothing, know the real worth of money and the key ingredient - worked very hard to get where they are.

They went through a university - these people worked hard to get their degree and after getting into a graduate scheme got taught what their fund wanted them to know (however one or two places allow them to employ their own techniques, most would be laughed at for sticking an indicator on).

These are the main ones, of course there are other like growing up in a rich family and getting educated by their mother/father etc however their mother/father would probably have been in one of the other categories hence the information flow continues from the funds / hard work.

Back to the point, people use these indicators because they want an easy way to interpret the charts (even though a trend line is the simplistic form of TA). They don't understand that the market "can" be random (although it isn't); they want reasoning behind a chart moving up and down. In essence the indicator relieves them from stress and they can just stick an indicator on thinking "wow that must have rejected because CSI just hit the overbought area" instead of - "Nice rejection there, we've been in a rally for the last 5 days perhaps the big guys are taking profits and shorting" or "Sony needs to transfer it's money from JPY to GBP, they waited for R then got in".

The problem with this is that system traders won't make exceptional traders. Why? Anyone can replicate the system, and overtime you can become profitable and even very rich if the system stays in tune with market sentiment. However, without basic discretionary trading they will never become the next Soros, Livermore etc. You need to have a view on the price, not your indicator to get to this level.

-------------

For the volume part of your post wasp, it's easy. They were taught by someone through the internet that this is the way to trade (the original person most likely meant stocks however someone along the line some bright spark applied it to MT4 forex).

So when you get a group of these people using the same technique (whether they are making money or not) they will get touchy with the fact that they spent days, weeks, months using it and was taught by a guru and they kick over the hurdle without waiting for a response from them.

Furthermore, most people don't like to admit when they are wrong, especially not on the internet - it enhances their ego always being right.

I only woke up 10minutes ago so please ignore bad grammar, spelling and overuse of commas.

PS. The reason you aren't getting slated is because you didn't intrude someones thread, you made your own and the people reading this are in denial . hehe.
  • #5
  • May 26, 2009 9:24am May 26, 2009 9:24am
...you have opened this thread for what exactly? To let some readers know that you have made a not so new discovery somewhere else?

regards
daytrading
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  • #6
  • May 26, 2009 9:27am May 26, 2009 9:27am
Quoting daytrading
...you have opened this thread for what exactly? To let some readers know that you have made a not so new discovery somewhere else?

regards
daytrading
Actually, if you read the original post you would have seen 2 questions
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #7
  • May 26, 2009 9:33am May 26, 2009 9:33am
Quoting thewasp
Actually, if you read the original post you would have seen 2 questions
...which you have seemingly answered already all by yourself.

regards
daytrading
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  • #8
  • May 26, 2009 9:36am May 26, 2009 9:36am
Quoting daytrading
...which you have seemingly answered already all by yourself.

regards
daytrading
No one seems to be able to grasp the theory behind 'discussion' board here.

I didn't come to show off, a fight or to ridicule, I came to see if I could learn anything new, discovered a half dozen journals based on volume, voiced my thoughts, and everyone has just got defensive....

Its a simple query....
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #9
  • May 26, 2009 9:41am May 26, 2009 9:41am
The questions are explained in statement form, however I am pretty certain that wasp wanted to see other people's opinions and start a discussion. Hence the point in the "trading discussion" section.

For example, if people know volume is only half the playing field, why do they use it? Why aren't there more naked traders on this forums? Etc.

Phil.

edit: beat me to it wasp.
  • #10
  • May 26, 2009 9:44am May 26, 2009 9:44am
Quoting thewasp
Actually, if you read the original post you would have seen 2 questions

naked trading, u can look
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=80290
  • #11
  • May 26, 2009 9:45am May 26, 2009 9:45am
Not picking on you here, but what the hell did you expect? Youve been a member at T2W for long enough to know that the Rubbish festers at the forums and the good stuff is locked away (method-wise).

The good stuff pops up in the discussion forum when you manage to get the infrequent posters Involved.

Its just the way it is.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #12
  • May 26, 2009 9:48am May 26, 2009 9:48am
Quoting thewasp
No one seems to be able to grasp the theory behind 'discussion' board here.

I didn't come to show off, a fight or to ridicule, I came to see if I could learn anything new, discovered a half dozen journals based on volume, voiced my thoughts, and everyone has just got defensive....

Its a simple query....
...why don't you approach it as such?

The way your initial post is constructed appears like you wanted to achieve precisely what you are denying now.

I guess eveyone is different somehow but if I want to know something, I take the risk of sounding stupid and ask outright questions.

Anyway, it is your thread - so I leave it to those who might like to answer your queries.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #13
  • May 26, 2009 9:50am May 26, 2009 9:50am
Okay, going to rephrase...

'It is my understanding volume for spot FX cannot be used as it is unregulated. I have joined this forum to look around and see plenty of volume based threads and journals (volume, VWAP, VSA). Could someone kindly explain please how they do this since there is no true representation of volume in spot FX?'

Also, lots of members say they 'trade naked' yet have volume, fibs and even MA's on their charts. Is naked trading not just price alone?

thanks
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #14
  • May 26, 2009 9:52am May 26, 2009 9:52am
Quoting thewasp
Okay, going to rephrase an stick with just one question for now...

'It is my understanding volume for spot FX cannot be used as it is unregulated. I have joined this forum to look around and see plenty of volume based threads and journals (volume, VWAP, VSA). Could someone kindly explain please how they do this since there is no true reprensatation of volume in spot FX?

thanks
They dont.

They are using Tick volume.

They swear it works.

I iz not 2 sure.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15
  • May 26, 2009 9:54am May 26, 2009 9:54am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
They dont.

They are using Tick volume.

They swear it works.

I iz not 2 sure.
Why thanks there Leonlorenzo, cheers for the answer, explains a thing or two.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #16
  • May 26, 2009 9:57am May 26, 2009 9:57am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Not picking on you here, but what the hell did you expect? Youve been a member at T2W for long enough to know that the Rubbish festers at the forums and the good stuff is locked away (method-wise).

The good stuff pops up in the discussion forum when you manage to get the infrequent posters Involved.

Its just the way it is.
Not sure, debate, discussion, questions, answers, arguments, disagreements, comparisons, inquisitiveness, idea swapping, thought provoking theories.... the usual stuff you'd expect on a discussion board, with whoever!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #17
  • May 26, 2009 9:58am May 26, 2009 9:58am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Wasp,

I'm surprised you haven't had any responses to this yet - maybe a few people are looking at themsleves in the mirror after reading your post!

I've read a lot of your posts on T2W, and have lurked on Dante's thread for a while. I even tried reading Socrates posts this weekend but they just seemed to never actually get anywhere.

Your approach appears very simple (S/R & price) but i expect your thought process and experience is far removed from 'simple'.

I am always impressed by people who cut through the BS and was wondering whether you...
you have to read between the lines with Socrates, but he is worth listening too.

I will, when I have time in the early hours of Asia occasionally impart some thoughts. Maybe!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #18
  • May 26, 2009 9:59am May 26, 2009 9:59am
Quoting aediaz1
Well said. Is that why you're posting in the brain-dead gbp/jpy-thread trying to grasp the sentiment of amateurs? Seems like fun
It has its benefits! Herd mentality is useful!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #19
  • May 26, 2009 10:00am May 26, 2009 10:00am
Quoting MJurban
naked trading, u can look
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=80290
Impressed, will take a proper look later, cheers.
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #20
  • May 26, 2009 10:04am May 26, 2009 10:04am
Wasp,

Overall volume like in exchange traded product does not exist - Open Interest in currency futures is as close as you get to real volume.

Some ECN's provide market depth with real size volume behind orders - as far as desired to show by the submitting participant.

What traders try to achieve is a derived representation of how volume segments might influence price behaviour. My personal view is that this way of decision making is very vague.

regards
daytrading
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