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No Brainer Trades

  • #11,701
  • May 22, 2009 8:56am May 22, 2009 8:56am
Just go to longer timeframes and use some orders. Siam is very good at this approach I believe./////////////////

I am doing just this, but got stopped using orders. Last week, left 2 orders, both went in profit, but missed T/P by 1 pip and then moved to stop loss, picked it by 1 pip and went into profit again.
I have been scalping all the time and it is hard to break this psychology.
Right now opened short at E/J at 131.86 and picked 5 pips , closed it went more than 20. E/U opened 2 positions at 140.19 and 140.30, picked 5-10 pips. it went 50. Just finger clicks itself when see some profit but I do use BRV stop loss of 40 pips and open only positions that can be good also for longer term. picking S/R at 1H to 1 week charts.
I am thinking may be setting goal of 20 pips T/P and then leaving PC when trade opened is a good idea, but cannot force myself to do this
  • #11,702
  • May 22, 2009 9:22am May 22, 2009 9:22am
Quoting bumasoft
I know. I don't usually play breakouts, but... I banked 60 pips on this one
Had you done it 3 bars earlier (H1), you would have had a loss.
  • #11,703
  • May 22, 2009 2:53pm May 22, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting shiko
Just go to longer timeframes and use some orders. Siam is very good at this approach I believe./////////////////

I am doing just this, but got stopped using orders. Last week, left 2 orders, both went in profit, but missed T/P by 1 pip and then moved to stop loss, picked it by 1 pip and went into profit again.
I have been scalping all the time and it is hard to break this psychology.
Right now opened short at E/J at 131.86 and picked 5 pips , closed it went more than 20. E/U opened 2 positions at 140.19 and 140.30, picked 5-10 pips. it went 50....
Using a stop loss of 40 pips and target of 5-20 pips is a quick way to ruin your account unless you are right way more often than you are wrong. Of course you are free to trade any way you like, but I think most of the traders here who use SLs of 40+ pips have significantly higher targets (I'm talking 100-300 pips) usually, but will also take money off the table at smaller targets if things don't look too good. Letting profits run is one of the more difficult lessons to learn though, and I really think experience is the only way you can improve it.
  • #11,704
  • May 22, 2009 2:55pm May 22, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting kk007
Had you done it 3 bars earlier (H1), you would have had a loss.
London open (3AM EST-- when he traded it) can have pretty predictable breakouts, certainly more consistent than when just Asia is open.
  • #11,705
  • May 22, 2009 9:19pm May 22, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting smittens4212
London open (3AM EST-- when he traded it) can have pretty predictable breakouts, certainly more consistent than when just Asia is open.
Yes. You are right. But still I think his trade was very risky (at least for me perhaps) even very quick-profitable. It could be a very brief false breakout.
  • #11,706
  • May 23, 2009 4:12am May 23, 2009 4:12am
Hi all

I'm new to forex, and I love the method of these "no brainer trades". I've read the pdf, the blog, and most of this thread. I'm going to be demo-ing for the next two months, then hopefully start trading with a micro account.

However, this method does not work well for backtesting.

It may be a bit presumptuous of me, but I'd love some advice from the experienced traders: is there any way for me to speed up my learning curve?

Thanks everyone for your posts, even if I dont get any new advice, I've already learnt heaps from the thread!
  • #11,707
  • May 23, 2009 4:27am May 23, 2009 4:27am
[quote=pricey;2752507]Hi all



It may be a bit presumptuous of me, but I'd love some advice from the experienced traders: is there any way for me to speed up my learning curve?


Hi pricey

you cant speed up the learning curve, I'm relatively new as well and you have to endure all the ups and downs that will eventually turn you into a good trader. You've found an awesome thread and system, stick with it and don't get bogged down with too many suggestions to try other systems. It happened to me and all it did was confuse me even more. To my mind finding the right system and time frame that will suit your personality is the key. The rest is patience and endurance and when you have a loss, stand up and start again.

And one last suggestion, come to grips with money management - FAST

All the best.
  • #11,708
  • May 23, 2009 7:33am May 23, 2009 7:33am
Using a stop loss of 40 pips and target of 5-20 pips is a quick way to ruin your account unless you are right way more often than you are wrong./////


I do not think there is a danger of this. This week I made 27 trades. 24 wins and 3 losses. Plus I usually do not risk more than 0.5% per trade and in most cases even only 0.25% and trade with no leverage or even negative leverage. Actually, 2 losses were those trades when i left limit orders and trades happened without me. They both were profitable but did not reach take profit by 1 pip. so, I actually had 1 losing trade when I personally supervised trades. The problem is that I can become very profitable with very little risk if I let profit run evben not 100 pips but say 20-30 pips which happenes with huge regularity with BRV method.
Without few months experience I am afraid I cannot break this habit. It sems everything requires time.
It is also a reply for the guy asking about learning curve I think unless someone is a discipline freak of nature there is no substitute for father time.
  • #11,709
  • May 23, 2009 7:36am May 23, 2009 7:36am
E/U is closing on 1.4126 -1.4145 resistance of last December., I wonder, will it break this level as easy as it broke through so many other good levels or will reverse and give us some nice pips. I do want to try and let the profit run Those lower resistances happened to be good only for small scalps.
I wonder, it must retrace down somewhere.
  • #11,710
  • May 23, 2009 8:21am May 23, 2009 8:21am
after some research I guess 1.4150 is the best choice for resistance with latest hit and reverse been at 1.4145.
It is simply amazing how those big guys sit in ambush and patiently wait while price is coming towards them. I remember 6 months ago i always wondered as to why suddenly when the trend and everything was going in one direction and I was thinking I was going for a kill, suddenly the price like hit the wall and went against me 20-50 pips killing my position even despite following trend. It happened on many occasions. Now the reason is clear
I guess after reading and starting following BRV method the number of my trades fell probably 5-6 times. I do now 3-6 trades per day and hit rates is increased with much lower occurance of price ever moving against me after opening more than 3-5 pips.
I am trying to keep things simple as BRV described using only horizontal S/R levels and use no indicators now.
  • #11,711
  • May 25, 2009 1:28am May 25, 2009 1:28am
Quoting shiko
Using a stop loss of 40 pips and target of 5-20 pips is a quick way to ruin your account unless you are right way more often than you are wrong./////


I do not think there is a danger of this. This week I made 27 trades. 24 wins and 3 losses. Plus I usually do not risk more than 0.5% per trade and in most cases even only 0.25% and trade with no leverage or even negative leverage. Actually, 2 losses were those trades when i left limit orders and trades happened without me. They both were profitable but did not reach take profit by 1 pip. so, I...
VeryVery Well Done!! 90% is really achievable!!!
  • #11,712
  • May 25, 2009 8:54am May 25, 2009 8:54am
VeryVery Well Done!! 90% is really achievable!!!//////


Now I guess it is achievable with BRV principles. I used to make up to 75% winning trades but not like this. The problem is to let profits run at least to 10-20 pips per trade. i would feel safer then. Right now. 1 losing trade and I can lose half of weekly earning. Not good.
I guess it will take some time.
It is really so good I found this thread.
  • #11,713
  • May 25, 2009 11:04pm May 25, 2009 11:04pm
Hope you had a good time this weekend while the bank traders did their jobs and hedged.

People seem to be targeting the top of this channel in the high 43's-44's alot lately, after this break of the 1.3740 area. Buyers went heavy in last week and hard to tell otherwise over the holiday weekend.

Bad news out tonight about further banking downgrades made a good dent in EUR/USD, sinking it past yesterdays lows before banks and Asian speculators came in and started buying again.

I think a retracement is due before we see the trend keep kicking at this point, if it does, but you're not going to find me selling just yet.

Depending on how the news turns out this week, I'm looking for longs in the 1.3865 (spike base) region, down to 1.3840. If I can latch onto something, great. If not, it was worth the effort and pat me on the back for a good attempt. Here's what my chart looks like, nothing special:
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  • #11,714
  • May 25, 2009 11:11pm May 25, 2009 11:11pm
I caught people trying to compare this move with the one that happened at the beginning of December. Let me make this clear and say that you CANT compare them. That move was driven by the US decreasing its interest rate to virtually nothing, and we're in a new ballgame now.

That being said, killing a trend like this after key areas get taken out is not going to be easy, but bad news from Europe could keep putting pressure on the pair for the short term

The dollar index is bouncing overall, and people expect it to extend recent losses.

So I'm sticking with the trend for now, given nothing earth shattering gets released, but at better levels than the ones we see this second. The pair is still vulnerable short term, especially with the recent disconnect to world stock markets. Giving this one a little breathing room.....there are alot of trendlines below that have yet to get touched.
  • #11,715
  • May 25, 2009 11:41pm May 25, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I caught people trying to compare this move with the one that happened at the beginning of December....
Great analysis as usual.

Just thought id ask what your take is on cable at the moment. I'm planning something similar to what you just posted on the Euro and as these two tend to follow each other around i guess it makes sense.

I'm looking for the 15550 area to buy it if the thing retraces after all the frenzied buying that went on last week.

Any thoughts?
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  • #11,716
  • May 26, 2009 12:33am May 26, 2009 12:33am
Quoting Siam
Great analysis as usual.

Just thought id ask what your take is on cable at the moment. I'm planning something similar to what you just posted on the Euro and as these two tend to follow each other around i guess it makes sense.

I'm looking for the 15550 area to buy it if the thing retraces after all the frenzied buying that went on last week.

Any thoughts?
Honestly the first thing that hits my mind is its going to take a really good push to get it back down there, and I'm not sure if its going to anytime soon.....

Speaking from the heart here:

Whenever you have a runaway market like this, any cyclical nature of the currencies is hard to reinstate without a pounding of poor fundamental data.

The people buying into lows like the ones we see tonight are just banks and large speculators, looking to exploit the current environment. A drop of 300 pips could be seen as significant and further losses to come.

EUR doesnt have that far to go, but cable does (for your level to get hit vs. mine, which is also pretty far away and 'iffy', I'll admit)......

The weekly close above the 1.5720 area is pretty significant, so I would try to push for something sooner, and if it doesnt work out, just take the hit and admit reversal, keep on trying unless you see things changing fundamentally. GBP long targets are still intact and not going anywhere unless we see currencies fade last weeks pre-holiday move, which I'm prepared for. The harder they come, the harder they fall many times.

In situations like this I look for false breakouts on local lows, just like the one on EUR tonight (typical stop-poking scenario), for instance, and also double zero trend-continuation plays (like 5800, 5700, etc)
  • #11,717
  • May 26, 2009 1:07am May 26, 2009 1:07am
BRV I'd love to hear more about your experiences in the institutional trading environment, with respect to the manner in which they interact with the markets. Did the institutions you worked for trade in the same manner as yourself, ie. no brainer long term s&r, with near term supplimental trades when they appear? I'm sure what goes on in the institutional environment is quite a bit different to what the retail crowd gets up too. Were there any resources you studied, or were you mentored by a trader in the fund? Or is it top secret and your now in hiding since leaving ... lol. I think I speak for everyone when I say that we really appreciate you sharing your knowledge.
  • #11,718
  • May 26, 2009 1:15am May 26, 2009 1:15am
Quoting Ferrari
BRV I'd love to hear more about your experiences in the institutional trading environment, with respect to the manner in which they interact with the markets. Did the institutions you worked for trade in the same manner as yourself, ie. no brainer long term s&r, with near term supplimental trades when they appear? I'm sure what goes on in the institutional environment is quite a bit different to what the retail crowd gets up too. Were there any resources you studied, or were you mentored by a trader in the fund? Or is it top secret and your now...
Maybe someday I'll write a long story about it but for now, they lose money too unless they're offsetting the right people .

Hey....EUR numbers came in bad but pretty much as expected....consolidation for now; there are buyers on this last dip to look out for and theyre likely to protect unless anyone bigger comes along.

GBP making a sharp rebound from upper resistance....I'm sitting on the sidelines for now until I see something clearer.
  • #11,719
  • Edited 1:31am May 26, 2009 1:19am | Edited 1:31am
You guys should really look at this:

This is the website for FX Concepts, one of the, if not the, biggest hedge funds in the world specializing in currencies, and take a look at how they trade and mine for ideas. http://www.fx-concepts.com/index.php

They publish research, which you can subscribe to....no idea how much but it cant be cheap. Here is a sample they have posted on their website. Its good to take a good look at it and get a feel for how they think in general.
http://www.fx-concepts.com/researchproducts.php
  • #11,720
  • May 26, 2009 1:30am May 26, 2009 1:30am
Thank you for the links. Good material to study.
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