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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,721
  • May 21, 2009 1:39pm May 21, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting Ryanmcd

The problem I have now is to try to trail them out with psar. Would be nice to get that 40pip risk into a 100+ win but then you have all the others that get stopped out @ cost trying to run'em lol. Never ends.

good to see you Ryan.

that is the same dilemma I have. Getting into a nice run happens too infrequently for my liking.
  • #30,722
  • May 21, 2009 1:51pm May 21, 2009 1:51pm
Nice to be back, I just had to get off the forums I was on them about 10+ hours a day and was missing trades due to posting lol
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #30,723
  • May 21, 2009 1:53pm May 21, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting Jankone
big Ryanmcd is back? I'm still doing your business man :-)
Ya it all works and I mix it up, sometime I play the 1min sometimes 5min. Really depends on the market for me, I am doing trend stuff now and it works well just have to use the other times 15-30min stuff to make sure you are going with the trend.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #30,724
  • May 21, 2009 1:59pm May 21, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting bundyraider
My intentions were to point out that going into the "long run" slash "have faith in your original stop" style, NEEDs you to be very picky. Otherwise you will more than likely be negative ROI .
No worries, Bundy, I think we are talking abour diff. things.

There is nothing wrong with aiming "high" (RR2+), and there are ways of trading in that manner indeed.

My point was different: (a) to illustrate Mike's win rate and RR via equity curve, and (b) to confirm that you don't need more that RR1, if your win rate is 60%+, to make (good) money (subject to the a/c size being adequate, of course )

On the former, I personally think it' easier to achieve 60-65% win rate (than something like 80-90%); once that win rate is achieved on a consistent basis, it's not hard to start hitting RR1 on a regular basis (i.e. if you (not you personally ) aim specifically at RR1, like Ryanmcd does, and exit your position there rather than start playing around with SL and TP).

Starting with a win rate of <50% and hoping to compensate with large RR (3+) is way much harder (in MY view).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #30,725
  • May 21, 2009 2:29pm May 21, 2009 2:29pm
Hi,

After lurcking quite a while on this thread I have decided to go to action (in demo) and try for myself.
I am decided to trade only weekly/daily PA for the next 3 months until I am pretty confident with trade entries and exit strategies.

On my feed (alpari UK) there was this PB on the daily for AUD. It is not a A+ PB, but I would still clasify it as A.

Things I like:
- Location: Just at a weekly/daily PPZ
- Location: PPZ is a round number 0.7700
- Low of the PB is below the PPZ

Things I don't like:
- Nose is not long enough
- There is not any other confluence (neither fibs nor divergence)

Since the nose is not long enough, I have risked 1% of my capital on the trade with an entry few pips below the low and the stop at the PB high (instead of using the fib retracement).

Right now it does not do great, but am I on the good direction at least in the state of mind/decision making process?

Cheers
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  • #30,726
  • May 21, 2009 2:35pm May 21, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting Lapin
Hi,

After lurcking quite a while on this thread I have decided to go to action (in demo) and try for myself.
I am decided to trade only weekly/daily PA for the next 3 months until I am pretty confident with trade entries and exit strategies.

On my feed (alpari UK) there was this PB on the daily for AUD. It is not a A+ PB, but I would still clasify it as A.

Things I like:
- Location: Just at a weekly/daily PPZ
- Location: PPZ is a round number 0.7700
- Low of the PB is below the PPZ

Things I don't like:
- Nose is not long enough
- There is not...
Hey Lapin,

Your "things I don't like" should have kept you out of this one. If you look at the bar by itself it will tell you a lot where you won't even have to dig deeper into it. The lack of nose shows really no significance. Instead this small bar takes on the look of a more neutral looking bar, or a bar that simply "paused" so to speak. We want to look for the clear indications of a reversal at a point like this. If you look your chart is clearly in a strong trending market. So a small bar with no nose would equal no trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  • #30,727
  • May 21, 2009 2:38pm May 21, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Lapin,

Your "things I don't like" should have kept you out of this one. If you look at the bar by itself it will tell you a lot where you won't even have to dig deeper into it. The lack of nose shows really no significance. Instead this small bar takes on the look of a more neutral looking bar, or a bar that simply "paused" so to speak. We want to look for the clear indications of a reversal at a point like this. If you look your chart is clearly in a strong trending market. So a small bar with no nose would equal no trade.

Hope that...
LOL @ Mike, man you are the FF BEAST!
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #30,728
  • May 21, 2009 2:39pm May 21, 2009 2:39pm
Thanks
I still have to learn to be more patient so...
  • #30,729
  • May 21, 2009 2:41pm May 21, 2009 2:41pm
good to see you Ryan,

Jim

Quoting Ryanmcd
Nice to be back, I just had to get off the forums I was on them about 10+ hours a day and was missing trades due to posting lol
  • #30,730
  • May 21, 2009 2:43pm May 21, 2009 2:43pm
no problem,

hit me the wrong way for sure.

he probably meant nothing by it but we dont play those games in my thread.

jim

Quoting markmm
Thanks Jim!
  • #30,731
  • May 21, 2009 2:47pm May 21, 2009 2:47pm
Theres a small pin bar on AUDCAD daily, it has good confluence, 38 fib, ppz 0.880 and 365 ema as support. I think it should run to the those bar highs and its a with long term trend. One thing I dont like is size (and it is not closed so this all may be in vain).
Attached Image
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,732
  • May 21, 2009 2:56pm May 21, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting markmm
Theres a small pin bar on AUDCAD daily, it has good confluence, 50 fib, ppz 0.880 and 365 ema as support. I think it should run to the those bar highs and its a with long term trend. One thing I dont like is size (and it is not closed so this all may be in vain).
Every daily chart is chop, chop, chop. Best thing to do is call it a week. There's a US holiday on Monday and tomorrow will be light trading for sure. Best to pack it up and call a week. I haven't taken a trade in almost two weeks and it's killing me, but when I finally make that trade, I intend to win. Let the market come to you . . . (I'm saying this more to myself than you buddy )
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #30,733
  • May 21, 2009 2:59pm May 21, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting Flem26
Every daily chart is chop, chop, chop. Best thing to do is call it a week. There's a US holiday on Monday and tomorrow will be light trading for sure. Best to pack it up and call a week. I haven't taken a trade in almost two weeks and it's killing me, but when I finally make that trade, I intend to win. Let the market come to you . . . (I'm saying this more to myself than you buddy )
Yeah nothing will move much, better to sit it out till next week.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,734
  • May 21, 2009 3:36pm May 21, 2009 3:36pm
Thanks for sharing your numbers Mike.

I think I'm realizing more and more that the huge 5:1 R:R and 90% win rate are not within reach of us regular mortal traders.

However, I think that when you find your edge in trading it will be a small edge. Sort of like the casinos having a 51% edge on the Roulette wheel. They lose a lot of times...but they always come back on top due to their small edge. I feel that this might be the "secret" of trading if there was one. If you give a small trader a nice but small edge he won't know what to do with it because making a few $ on his small account won't make a difference. So the small trader needs a huge edge (like a 5:1 R:R many dream of) in the markets which if you had would make you a billionaire in a few short months. The pro larger trader has much more $ so he only needs a tiny edge that he can take advantage of over and over and he'll make a small % but that will be more than enough for him to live nicely.

Rubin.



Quoting mbqb11
5:1 on a 60% win rate would be absolutely phenomenal. At a 60% win rate your trades could go 1:1 and you would still make good money. You don't need 5:1 and beyond on a 60% winrate or even close.

To be honest I don't think most people really understand their methods or win/rate and R:R on the long run of a system.

Mike
  • #30,735
  • May 21, 2009 3:52pm May 21, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting markmm
Yeah nothing will move much, better to sit it out till next week.
Same here... nothing even close.

Josh
  • #30,736
  • May 21, 2009 4:00pm May 21, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting Jduester
Same here... nothing even close.

Josh
Im going to do some exciting back testing on daily pins. F12 key here I come.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,737
  • May 21, 2009 4:07pm May 21, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting james16
good to see you Ryan,

Jim

Nice to be back Jim, Just needed some time off the forums but I should be back for now.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #30,738
  • May 21, 2009 4:12pm May 21, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Nice to be back Jim, Just needed some time off the forums but I should be back for now.
RyanMCD !

Welcome back to the thread, I have enjoyed reading your old posts brah.

Jig
  • #30,739
  • May 21, 2009 4:29pm May 21, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting markmm
Im going to do some exciting back testing on daily pins. F12 key here I come.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #30,740
  • May 21, 2009 4:36pm May 21, 2009 4:36pm
I think I might just have had my first aha moment so I thought I'd share it on here in case it helps other rookies like myself.

A bit of history:
Like many people, I came to forex expecting to make easy money daily. I had purchased some software that threw out indicators and all I had to do was watch the money grow.

You can guess what happened. The software threw out as many bad indicators as good and I soon ended up with a loss. Luckily, the software came with a 30 day money back guarantee so I returned it and got my money back. Undaunted, I carried on trying to scalp on 15 minute charts.
Guess what? I lost. Not hugely, but I lost. I then had my second piece of luck. I found this thread.

At last, I thought, it all makes sense.
Just wait for a pinbar at a swing high and the pips are in the bag. Sure enough, my first trade netted over 200 pips. Great, I thought, 2 or 3 of these each month and I've cracked it.

However, the last month or so has been rather lean in the way of pinbars and has seen me getting more and more frustrated. I even tried taking an outside bar - lost 50 pips. So I resorted to simply watching the charts and trying to work out where I would enter on an outside bar and where I expected the price to run to. In other words, what would be the minimum I could 'scalp' on each outside bar. It was while doing this that I had my aha moment.

Price action is not the key to success. The key to success is spotting the PPZs so that I can work out where I might enter a trade and where I can expect my first TP. Price action is simply the confirmation the price is reacting to a PPZ. I know this is said elsewhere in this thread and even in the videos on the website but until now I just didn't get it. Maybe its because I came into this looking for indicators and so I was simply swapping my software generated ones for pinbars. Having found a pinbar,
or outside bar, I would look for PPZs, fibs etc, to justify it and there is usually something, however tenuous, that can be used to confirm the trade.

I now realise that I should not be looking for pinbars, or any other kind of PA, until I have identified the PPZs. Then I can look for PA to confirm that the PPZ is acting as support or resistance.

First plot where you expect the price to react, plot where you expect it to run to then simply wait for PA to confirm your setup. KISS!

I know many of you out there already know this but maybe there are other beginners like myself who will benefit. I hope so.
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