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  • #11,661
  • Edited 10:56am May 21, 2009 10:47am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting kk007
Anyone can take a few seconds to give me some suggestion for this please? I don't know how to handle this kind of situation.... Thanks.
First, looking at a daily chart, you can see that the 130 area has been a key level to regain after the Oct 08 turmoil.

Second, looking at a 4 hour chart, you can see that 129.85 has been in play a number of time over the past few months.

So it's a key support level for the long-term direction of the pair, and zooming down to 5 minutes misses this entirely. It is not unexpected to see lots of consolidative buying at such a level, which would only confirm the reversal rather than be a cause of concern. Trends and reversals start slowly.

Hope that helps.

PS. The 94.50 area plays a similar role for USDJPY, and both have been in play simultaneously. So expect this kind of behaviour. And take a look at a USDJPY 5 minute chart of today and try to make sense of it without the long-term picture.
  • #11,662
  • May 21, 2009 11:02am May 21, 2009 11:02am
Quoting sam0182
I don't trade this pair because it's so volatile but if you longed at 1.2985, aren't you looking at 70-100points of profit right now?

I would take it and get out, you're looking at descending triangle of sorts on the hourly and it looks like it will be back down to test the support again soon and if the EUR falls out (EUR/USD has been pushing through it's short term support, US equities are down = dollar rally), it could push this through.

[font=Verdana][color=black]IMO,...

Thanks. I was not talking about right now. I was talking what I would do after seeing multiple hittings of the support on 20 May. When I see that many times of hitting I was worried that it might have been a breakout.
  • #11,663
  • May 21, 2009 11:03am May 21, 2009 11:03am
Quoting medici
First, looking at a daily chart, you can see that the 130 area has been a key level to regain after the Oct 08 turmoil.

Second, looking at a 4 hour chart, you can see that 129.85 has been in play a number of time over the past few months.

So it's a key support level for the long-term direction of the pair, and zooming down to 5 minutes misses this entirely. It is not unexpected to see lots of consolidative buying at such a level, which would only confirm the reversal rather than be a cause of concern. Trends and reversals start slowly.

Hope...
So you think the multiple hittings of the level was normal in the preparation for reversal. Thanks for your opinion!
  • #11,664
  • May 21, 2009 11:07am May 21, 2009 11:07am
Just shorted GBP/USD at 1.5784. Think its pretty high probablity at least for a scalp.
  • #11,665
  • May 21, 2009 11:31am May 21, 2009 11:31am
Quoting kk007
Anyone can take a few seconds to give me some suggestion for this please? I don't know how to handle this kind of situation.... Thanks.
KK, in your earlier post, you said: "Will you hold the long position until the very end?" Here's a thought on this: Look at it from a Risk/Reward standpoint. If you are in a long position, how much further to your target profit? And what is your risk if it goes the other way ie. where is your hard stop? Calculate your R/R at that point in time and compare to your trading criteria. Usually, you will find that it is very small, maybe even negative. That should help you make a sound decision.

SR
  • #11,666
  • May 21, 2009 11:47am May 21, 2009 11:47am
Quoting seattlerust
KK, in your earlier post, you said: "Will you hold the long position until the very end?" Here's a thought on this: Look at it from a Risk/Reward standpoint. If you are in a long position, how much further to your target profit? And what is your risk if it goes the other way ie. where is your hard stop? Calculate your R/R at that point in time and compare to your trading criteria. Usually, you will find that it is very small, maybe even negative. That should help you make a sound decision.

SR
Agree. R/R evaluation is important. But it sounds that the confidence of a sure reversal is not very certain at some point, after seeing the multiple hittings in this case.
  • #11,667
  • Edited 12:05pm May 21, 2009 12:04pm | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting kk007
So you think the multiple hittings of the level was normal in the preparation for reversal. Thanks for your opinion!
My pleasure. And it is not so much an opinion as trying to understand how the market works. Put yourself in the shoes of somebody who wants to buy a billion EUR at 129.85. You wouldn't place a market order when the level gets hit, as that would result in a huge move and getting filled at bad levels. Neither would you place a limit order disclosing your intentions to other big accounts, thereby getting a worse fill as well if at all. You would perhaps drip feed the market with 'market-if-touched' orders at 129.85 maybe with randomized entries around the level, resulting in the patterns that you see as multiple hittings. If I have an opinion it would be that you should always, in reading the charts, try to understand how those who move the markets act.
  • #11,668
  • May 21, 2009 12:14pm May 21, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting medici
My pleasure. And it is not so much an opinion as trying to understand how the market works. Put yourself in the shoes of somebody who wants to buy a billion EUR at 129.85. You wouldn't place a market order when the level gets hit, as that would result in a huge move and getting filled at bad levels. Neither would you place a limit order disclosing your intentions to other big accounts, thereby getting a worse fill as well if at all. You would perhaps drip feed the market with 'market-if-touched' orders at 129.85 maybe with randomized entries around...
Agree. We have to think what is happening in the market.
Sometimes, the reversal is very clear and sharp. For this kind of sharp reversal, I would imagine that the force of touching the S/R is so weak that even a small limit order placed on the S/R can defense the S/R very well, and so no multiple hittings of the S/R at all.
But this time I see multiple hittings, and no sure if the strength of the S/R can persist until the end.
  • #11,669
  • May 21, 2009 1:34pm May 21, 2009 1:34pm
Geither speaks and big money shorts the dollar. Could trading be any easier?

I had $83 in my pocket before he spoke. Now it's down to $42.50
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #11,670
  • May 21, 2009 1:45pm May 21, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Iron-man
Geither speaks and big money shorts the dollar. Could trading be any easier?

I had $83 in my pocket before he spoke. Now it's down to $42.50
He's the only fundamental indicator I might play regardless of technicals, lol. I shouldn't have been worried. He's worked for me every time.
  • #11,671
  • May 21, 2009 1:53pm May 21, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting zegakai
He's the only fundamental indicator I might play regardless of technicals, lol. I shouldn't have been worried. He's worked for me every time.
Not that I'd advocate the approach. It's just pretty cool that the one time I was in a trade before he spoke, he didn't let me down. The other times, I shorted the dollar afterwards.
  • #11,672
  • May 21, 2009 1:55pm May 21, 2009 1:55pm
EUR/USD, watching 1.3965-1.40 resistance zone. Nice points on the monthly/weekly.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...x/eurmay21.jpg
  • #11,673
  • May 21, 2009 4:43pm May 21, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting Iron-man
Geither speaks and big money shorts the dollar. Could trading be any easier?

I had $83 in my pocket before he spoke. Now it's down to $42.50
Looks like BRV's UK visits are on hold at these rates. You guys seem to have had fun while I was off today!

At least Geithner has had some relevant career experience, have you seen Alistair Darlings resume?
  • #11,674
  • May 21, 2009 5:21pm May 21, 2009 5:21pm
Anyone notice the flag pattern breaking out on EURUSD?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd flag pattern.gif Size: 16 KB
deg
  • #11,675
  • May 21, 2009 5:28pm May 21, 2009 5:28pm
I thought that was called the Loch Ness pattern.
  • #11,676
  • May 21, 2009 7:24pm May 21, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting seattlerust
I thought that was called the Loch Ness pattern.
Does that mean.... seldom seen by a few? Will dive deep when recognized?
  • #11,677
  • May 21, 2009 7:28pm May 21, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Looks like BRV's UK visits are on hold at these rates. You guys seem to have had fun while I was off today!

At least Geithner has had some relevant career experience, have you seen Alistair Darlings resume?
Man I tell ya. You misplace the personal information of +25 million British citizens once, just once and they never let you forget it.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #11,678
  • May 21, 2009 7:31pm May 21, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting zegakai
Not that I'd advocate the approach. It's just pretty cool that the one time I was in a trade before he spoke, he didn't let me down. The other times, I shorted the dollar afterwards.
Absolutely, trading the foreign exchange carries great risk, women who are nursing, pregnant or may become pregnant should use extreme caution
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #11,679
  • May 21, 2009 7:39pm May 21, 2009 7:39pm
Ok,maybe we have a new lochness pattern.....I like it.....It;s working.
deg
  • #11,680
  • May 21, 2009 10:25pm May 21, 2009 10:25pm
Hey guys,

Could somebody put up a daily usd/cad chart. Im away from my workstation and have a short position running and need to take a look at it.

Thanks
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