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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,681
  • May 21, 2009 4:41am May 21, 2009 4:41am
Quoting bundyraider
Pricey is on to it.

There are two major options. As you probably realise....

High win rate low targets.
Low win rate higher targets.

A rookie mistake to forget that sometimes, but you need to realise that the 60% method NEEDS picky entries. It's the super picky entries that have the "large run" potential.

I'm not comfortable saying "NEEDS picky" is exclusive to that method og management, as you should always be picky. But you really need to be ultra-conservative when aiming for those long-run trades. Some can go...
60% win rate is a great result if your trades take you to beyond 5:1 R/R, which is possible with good setups. if you can catch the bottom of a wave then there are higher chances, if you can stomache that, of catching in excess of 10:1. My latest trade on the USD/JPY short was about a 24 pip risk which I exitted last night at support for a total of close to 9:1 R/R.

Ive seen some guys around, a couple in particular who have managed trades with greater than 25:1 R/R on some trades. It takes a good setup and some luck for things like that too happen, but when it does it can make a 50/50 (or worse) strategy pay off with dividends.
  • #30,682
  • May 21, 2009 4:43am May 21, 2009 4:43am
I'm sure you know this but...This bar isn't a pinbar. It's only an inside bar. To be a pinbar, we must satisfy each of the following criteria...

Quoting Jduester
Thanks Jim and Jarroo for pointing those out. Through what I've read thus far, this is what I have for determining the definition of a pinbar. Any other bar is simply a bar that has it's O/C in the top 1/3 of it's range.

Assume bullish pinbar.
Pinbar Criteria
1. O/C in the top 1/3 of its bar range.
2. The O/C is within the previous bar range.
3. The low of the bar protrudes below the previous bar (the more it protrudes, the better).
4. The bar forms at a swing low, thus after we have had lower highs and lower lows.
5. The high of the bar is within...
I don't mean to call you out on this. Just trying to help you and others not make this mistake again. I remember making it early on...

Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF 052109_4hour.GIF Size: 37 KB
  • #30,683
  • May 21, 2009 4:52am May 21, 2009 4:52am
Hi Josh

Thanks for your reply - I actually meant about going short on the next bar (after the one you pointed out, at about 1.7330) right before the news came out and would have made the price move drastically in my favour.

But I guess I've got to just learn to chalk moves like this as "the one that got away".... or maybe as I demo I might learn to notice these kind of moves as something signalling an upcoming move? And of course the bar I was looking at isn't a good PB by itself. It doesn't even look that good in retrospect - only the fact that maybe it was pre-signalling the drastic move about to come. O well, I'm moving on, maybe if I had gotten in I would've only been lucky. But I think I should keep upcoming news in mind from now on.
  • #30,684
  • May 21, 2009 5:00am May 21, 2009 5:00am
Quoting pricey
Hi Josh

Thanks for your reply - I actually meant about going short on the next bar (after the one you pointed out, at about 1.7330) right before the news came out and would have made the price move drastically in my favour.

But I guess I've got to just learn to chalk moves like this as "the one that got away".... or maybe as I demo I might learn to notice these kind of moves as something signalling an upcoming move? And of course the bar I was looking at isn't a good PB by itself. It doesn't even look that good in retrospect - only the fact...
Relieved to hear your weren't talking about the pinbar I pointed out! Careful about those weak pinbars though, especially trading on 4 hour...Yep, moving on is a great plan...
  • #30,685
  • May 21, 2009 5:04am May 21, 2009 5:04am
Haha, thanks Josh! And I'm still on demo - long way to go before I even touch my micro account, so it hurts less. Good luck with your own trading
  • #30,686
  • May 21, 2009 5:12am May 21, 2009 5:12am
Quoting KissFan
Long USD (Two Positions) @ 1.1445. Take Profit#1 @ 1.1470 and Take Profit #2 @ 1.1536. Reasons for long here are 1. Pin at swing low--2. Pin formed off support @1.1373 and major fib level.--3. Divergence on this four hr chart and daily--4. Room to run north for profit with sane R/R.

I will move second position to BE as soon as I take profit on first.

K.I.S.S.
hi kiss, is that some kind of harmonics indicator you have on your chart??
if so could you post it?

cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,687
  • May 21, 2009 5:20am May 21, 2009 5:20am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi kiss, is that some kind of harmonics indicator you have on your chart??
if so could you post it?

cheers
jon
It's a Tesselated Rock Pattern indicator.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,688
  • May 21, 2009 6:04am May 21, 2009 6:04am
Quoting bundyraider
It's a Tesselated Rock Pattern indicator.
KISS? I think not.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,689
  • May 21, 2009 6:09am May 21, 2009 6:09am
Quoting bundyraider
It's a Tesselated Rock Pattern indicator.
cheers......lets leave it that then!! i have enough on my plate,
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,690
  • May 21, 2009 6:18am May 21, 2009 6:18am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi kiss, is that some kind of harmonics indicator you have on your chart??
if so could you post it?

cheers
jon

It's a dynamic fibs indicator. It's just a tool not a grail. I'll try to post it. I know that some trade exclusively with it but I just use for confluence. I had to have help putting this indicator on my MT4 as I am a computer idiot. I hope this helps you like it has helped me.

K.I.S.S.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ZUP_files.zip   393 KB | 725 downloads
  • #30,691
  • May 21, 2009 6:23am May 21, 2009 6:23am
Quoting pricey
was watching GBPCHF, was expecting a pullback due to the distance from ema (from Alexander Elder) and the PB... But I thought it wud go upto 74 before a retrace... missed the big move... *sigh*

if this had been realtime and I'd gone short at the bottom of the PB, would my order even have been filled? I know, not every trade is mine... but still...

should I have watched out and been aware of the upcoming news, or was I just unlucky?

EDIT: I'm talking about the bar just before the drastic down move, I realize now that my post is a bit rambling...
hi pricey, the pinbar you have indicated is a very poor pinbar ,imho, have a look at the size of the previous bars.. this one is far smaller in comparison.it also has a very short wick/shadow and so for me doesnt show strongs signs of reversal.The close is way up in the bar and it close outside the previous bars o/c. also to echo the sentiments posted today about the trend, price had quite an upward momentum to reverse with only one poor looking pin! in this case the next big down bar is again only mo,just coincidence. you would have been better to pass the trade.
hang in there the "big" move may just be happening!!??
hope this helps
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,692
  • May 21, 2009 6:31am May 21, 2009 6:31am
Quoting KissFan
It's a dynamic fibs indicator. It's just a tool not a grail. I'll try to post it. I know that some trade exclusively with it but I just use for confluence. I had to have help putting this indicator on my MT4 as I am a computer idiot. I hope this helps you like it has helped me.

K.I.S.S.
cheers,
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,693
  • May 21, 2009 6:32am May 21, 2009 6:32am
Thanks for the explanation.

Quoting bundyraider
Pricey is on to it.



A rookie mistake to forget that sometimes, but you need to realise that the 60% method NEEDS picky entries....
  • #30,694
  • Edited 7:13am May 21, 2009 7:01am | Edited 7:13am
The best thing I've read related win loss % etc is Chapter 6 Understanding Expectancy and Other Keys to Trading Success in Trade your way to Financial Freedom by Van K Tharp. He has an analogy with a snowball fight and trading related to expectancy and money management that is very good. A must read for a new traders. In fact I think the holy grail is a positive expectant system and money management.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,695
  • May 21, 2009 7:32am May 21, 2009 7:32am
Stopped it to the pip on my feed a positive for the bulls.
Attached Image
  • #30,696
  • May 21, 2009 8:05am May 21, 2009 8:05am
Quoting markmm
The best thing I've read related win loss % etc is Chapter 6 Understanding Expectancy and Other Keys to Trading Success in Trade your way to Financial Freedom by Van K Tharp. He has an analogy with a snowball fight and trading related to expectancy and money management that is very good. A must read for a new traders. In fact I think the holy grail is a positive expectant system and money management.

Ironically, I am in the middle of Chapter 5! This book is one I wish I'd have read a long time ago...
Planning to outside shortly and read through a few more chapters.

Josh
  • #30,697
  • May 21, 2009 8:12am May 21, 2009 8:12am
Quoting Jduester
Ironically, I am in the middle of Chapter 5! This book is one I wish I'd have read a long time ago...
Planning to outside shortly and read through a few more chapters.

Josh
Good stuff Josh, I am at work and its raining here , otherwise I would do the same.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,698
  • May 21, 2009 8:38am May 21, 2009 8:38am
Mike (and anyone else who wants to answer),

Did you take the EURAUD trade? I am wondering if I am being too picky.

The EURAUD trade gave a two day pin bar, off what looked like a strong PPZ (1.7500), a double bottom with MACD (standard settings) bullish divergence.

Sounds like a good trade set-up to me. But I passed on it, due to expecting EUR weakness. Right now, if I took the trade, I would be out at BE +1 or something like that. I will watch to see where it goes.

I am just wondering if I am being too picky with my set-ups.

Thank you!
  • #30,699
  • May 21, 2009 8:44am May 21, 2009 8:44am
Thanks for the words of encouragement Mike, always means alot. But I am just seeing things differently as I learn each day.

Also I know you hear this alot but: HOW BOUT THEM YANKEES! I was there on Monday and Tuesday, great games. My friend even got on the Modells Trivia lolol

Quoting mbqb11
THis post is awesome Dave has a lot of points that I 100% agree with!

Keep at it

Mike
  • #30,700
  • May 21, 2009 8:51am May 21, 2009 8:51am
Quoting unlv_tj
Mike (and anyone else who wants to answer),

Did you take the EURAUD trade?...
Just curious, but why did you expect eur weakness, and why did you let this effect your trade? Honestly, from my limited experience, everytime I speculate on such things, I get nailed. Unless you have a really good reason, such as totally conflicting PA, or something else that you've come to accept as a good baramoter, I'd personal avoid letting such things get in your way. The trade itself, I'll let an expert respond, won't ruin the fun on that one. Personally I wanted a close above 1.78, maybe this was to picky, I wonder also.
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