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  • #3,221
  • May 20, 2009 4:36pm May 20, 2009 4:36pm
For you guys who are still learning PATIENCE to trade in the direction of the trend, here is a little trick that I used to do to force my DISCIPLINE.

Draw the THICKEST RED line you can above prices in a downtrend and the THICKEST GREEN line you can below prices in an uptrend.

This is your visual indication to ONLY trade in the direction of the trend.

See attached chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend trading.gif Size: 25 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,222
  • May 20, 2009 5:18pm May 20, 2009 5:18pm
Thanks to AstonDan, LEM and Srat for the reply. All were very helpful.
Strats post realy got through my thick head what the Dr. Joe story was trying to teach, so thank you.
I am printing that post as it is a great template for "big picture" analysis when I get too focused on the daily.
-Rick
  • #3,223
  • May 20, 2009 9:59pm May 20, 2009 9:59pm
Hey Baba I just looked over your charts from the weekend very interesting, post more

just wondering what makes you stick to those plain bars? I find it harder to recognize PA with those bars, I guess I'm just not used to it
  • #3,224
  • May 20, 2009 10:05pm May 20, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting strat
But today's bar just shows you how strong that trend is
I now feel bad for not taking it, would have been a good trade
I get more dissapointed when I miss trades on the daily because its so hard to find a decent trade setup
  • #3,225
  • May 20, 2009 11:49pm May 20, 2009 11:49pm
We see strong USD downtrends on majors. Some majors penetrated important SR levels and some are still trying while sitting at important crossroads. So what is next? Are the penetrations real or fake?

At such times, I prefer to check USD Index chart to guide me. As you can see from the attachments, 81 is a very important SR level, and I'll be watching PA around this level to get clues if current USD bearishness is over or not.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index.jpg Size: 148 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index Daily.jpg Size: 181 KB
  • #3,226
  • May 21, 2009 12:00am May 21, 2009 12:00am
Quoting AminAS
Trading against the trend is hard. I want to see USD/CAD go through that long term trendline and then try and retest it. The great thing about trading with the trend is that even if the PA turns out to be wrong, you chances of coming out on top are still good because your in the right direction.

Is there such a thing as a bond hanging man?
You're right... My trend-countering EA doubled my account last month, but still can't survive in the US dollar weakness trend these few days... Damn... Really need to stick to trend following style...
  • #3,227
  • May 21, 2009 12:12am May 21, 2009 12:12am
Quoting ppc123
You're right... My trend-countering EA doubled my account last month, but still can't survive in the US dollar weakness trend these few days... Damn... Really need to stick to trend following style...
Yes, stick with the trend and you will win more, and your trades will go farther. I am trying to be like Baba G and go as long as possible without losing.

Less is more now, and what is taken is with the trend.
Bang.
  • #3,228
  • May 21, 2009 12:15am May 21, 2009 12:15am
Quoting ppc123
You're right... My trend-countering EA doubled my account last month, but still can't survive in the US dollar weakness trend these few days... Damn... Really need to stick to trend following style...
Are you sure you're posting on the correct thread? This thread is for traders using Price Action at Support and Resistance and has nothing whatsoever to do with Expert Advisors or other non - human trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,229
  • May 21, 2009 12:19am May 21, 2009 12:19am
Quoting AminAS
Yes, stick with the trend and you will win more, and your trades will go farther. I am trying to be like Baba G and go as long as possible without losing.

Less is more now, and what is taken is with the trend.
Find your own style, don't try to be someone else AND it is IMPOSSIBLE to go without losing. WE ALL LOSE - the trick is to manage your losses so that they are miniscule compared with your winners. Many professional traders use systems and methods that only win 40% to 45% of the time!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,230
  • May 21, 2009 12:57am May 21, 2009 12:57am
I have just started reading this thread and thought I would say a quick Hello. So here goes....Hello.

I currently like the look of EUR JPY lower. Price is below both the 20 and the 50 and PA action looks like it is having trouble going higher so I guess this means it will go lower.

I'm not sure if you have an opinion as I'm still working through the earlier pages of this thread. If you have an opinion then let me know. I'd be thinking of a Sell order below yesterdays Low or would you wait until price got below the previous low at 12700?

PP
  • #3,231
  • May 21, 2009 2:10am May 21, 2009 2:10am
Quoting strat
Find your own style, don't try to be someone else AND it is IMPOSSIBLE to go without losing. WE ALL LOSE - the trick is to manage your losses so that they are miniscule compared with your winners. Many professional traders use systems and methods that only win 40% to 45% of the time!
Whats wrong with trying to be like Baba G? He's a very succcessful trader like how I want to be.
Bang.
  • #3,232
  • May 21, 2009 2:12am May 21, 2009 2:12am
Quoting strat
AND it is IMPOSSIBLE to go without losing. WE ALL LOSE - the trick is to manage your losses so that they are miniscule compared with your winners. Many professional traders use systems and methods that only win 40% to 45% of the time!
Yeah I know but the trick is to go as long as possible without losing right?
Bang.
  • #3,233
  • May 21, 2009 2:38am May 21, 2009 2:38am
Quoting pi piper
I have just started reading this thread and thought I would say a quick Hello. So here goes....Hello.

I currently like the look of EUR JPY lower. Price is below both the 20 and the 50 and PA action looks like it is having trouble going higher so I guess this means it will go lower.

I'm not sure if you have an opinion as I'm still working through the earlier pages of this thread. If you have an opinion then let me know. I'd be thinking of a Sell order below yesterdays Low or would you wait until price got below the previous low at 12700?

PP...
Hi Pi piper,

EURJPY discussion purpose.

After a strong leg up, price is taking a break waiting for the 50 boss to flatten a bit. The slope of 50 boss has been holding price down. Unless 125.50 taken out, up trend still intact.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #3,234
  • May 21, 2009 6:11am May 21, 2009 6:11am
Standard and Poors downgraded the UK this morning from stable to negative outlook because UK Government debt could reach 100% of GDP. Very negative for the UK's credit rating outlook.
Sterling crosses had a big reaction with cable dropping almost 300.
Despite the news the UK Gilt auction held up.
The next few days will tell us whether this has a big effect on sterling strength or not.

Not much good news anywhere, The world bank said that enthusiasm about recovery in China may be premature and the US Fed issued a warning yesterday that the economy was likely to shrink by more than anticipated this year, causing a sell off in the indices that looks to be continuing today. Unusually this is not yet translating into USD strength.
US weekly unemployment numbers are at 8:30 NY time
  • #3,235
  • May 21, 2009 6:26am May 21, 2009 6:26am
Quoting pi piper

I currently like the look of EUR JPY lower. Price is below both the 20 and the 50 and PA action looks like it is having trouble going higher so I guess this means it will go lower.

I'm not sure if you have an opinion as I'm still working through the earlier pages of this thread. If you have an opinion then let me know. I'd be thinking of a Sell order below yesterdays Low or would you wait until price got below the previous low at 12700?

PP
Hi PP,

EURJPY is practice in patience for me at the moment. It has been in a strong uptrend until 28th April when it posted a lower swing low followed on the 8th May by a lower swing high.

To me, this would signal a potential turnaround, however on Monday this week it posted a higher swing low, so the trend is balanced at the moment.

The 20 and 50 are also pretty flat although as a i look now, the 20 has crossed below the 50, signalling the potential to look for a short entry.

However, for me personally, until price breaks either of the thick lines on my chart below, i'll be sitting on my hands.

As always, this is just my reading of it and would welcome a discussion in it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euryen.gif Size: 16 KB


Thanks
Dan
  • #3,236
  • Edited 6:46am May 21, 2009 6:40am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting elitejets
The next few days will tell us whether this has a big effect on sterling strength or not.
Cable hasn't even broken below yesterday's open yet so i think this morning's moves may have just been an over reaction, but i agree completely with what you say - the next few days will tell us a lot.

We also had news from quite a few analysts this week (yes i know what we all think of anal-ysts!) that stirling is oversold and it's true value isn't represented in its price (about 15% oversold they say).

Who said trading the dailies couldn't be exciting!

Addition: And to quote the BBC's resident muppet-voiced business editor Robert Peston: "So the (UK) government has been put on notice to reduce public sector debt by one of the agencies widely regarded as having exaggerated the safety and quality of all manner of investment products that turned out to be toxic..."

Can you hear the irony?
  • #3,237
  • May 21, 2009 7:38am May 21, 2009 7:38am
Geithner will be speaking again later this morning. I'm going to warn anyone thinking about longing the dollar that this might not be an opportune time. I'm only going to look for opportunities to short it. I know this is mostly a technical thread, but even on the technical side, I think it lines up better to short the dollar unless I'm missing something?
  • #3,238
  • May 21, 2009 8:58am May 21, 2009 8:58am
Quoting zegakai
I'm going to warn anyone thinking about longing the dollar that this might not be an opportune time. I'm only going to look for opportunities to short it. I know this is mostly a technical thread, but even on the technical side, I think it lines up better to short the dollar unless I'm missing something?
Can you be missing USD Index 81.00 level? I suggest watching PA around this level.
  • #3,239
  • May 21, 2009 9:13am May 21, 2009 9:13am
Quoting Blackeagle
Can you be missing USD Index 81.00 level? I suggest watching PA around this level.
You're right. It is concerning me. My stance should be neutral but I have a trade open right now. I might have been premature. But, my rule is to never second-guess myself until after a trade closes. I got into trouble micro managing some trades months back.
  • #3,240
  • May 21, 2009 11:50am May 21, 2009 11:50am
Quoting Naws
I now feel bad for not taking it, would have been a good trade
I get more dissapointed when I miss trades on the daily because its so hard to find a decent trade setup
NEVER feel bad about missing any trade or getting out early or, for that matter, a losing trade. There is always another trade being set up - somewhere.

This is your psyche (demons, gremlins, little man in your head) playing with you and testing you. They want you to "feel guilty" and push you into making a "losing" trade.

Think how bad you would have felt if you had taken the trade and it sold off on one of those big red bars!

The markets are pretty directionless and therefore frustrating right now - this is where we learn and practice our PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE.

We need to keep focused and vigilant because the markets WILL change - they ALWAYS have and ALWAYS will - history ALWAYS repeats itself.

Hang in there, Naws, my friend
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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