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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,641
  • May 20, 2009 8:54pm May 20, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - Indeed, that makes a market! Good to have spirited debate here. Not sure I follow that flagpole business, but I do recall an old Candlestick expression - "what do you call a 2-day reversal candle in an uptrend?............a retracement."....i.e buy the third day. A one day move of similar proportion would indicate a sentiment change and be sold on retracement the other way.

Indeed, love a good thought provoking discussion!

Attached: Flagpole continuation pattern(extracted from the market in my head)

And indeed just taken by themselves, 2 candles that stand tall next to each other are fairly meaningless to me. Give me a few years of history to the left of them, and then i'll come up with "good idea" or "bad idea"
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  • #30,642
  • May 20, 2009 9:01pm May 20, 2009 9:01pm
Quote
Mike, out of curiosity, if you don't mind, are you ever interested in how a bar was formed? For instance, you see a daily bar, are you going to lower time frames, to see how exactly it was formed. I notice a lot of the really clean looking set ups, in terms of how the bar was formed, hold a lot of power. Whereas some of the daily trades, when going to lower timeframes, and not forming in such a clean manner, don't seem to work as well. For

Jlr,
our buddy bundy speaks gold again...

the "candle development" (as some call it) tells a lot of tales. it may, for example, explain why a huge Daily bullish PB or BUOB was followed by an immediate reversal. in this particular example, u might see in a lower time frame, 4-hour or even 1-hour, that price has stalled/ranged for several bars (around the highs of the bullish PB or BUOB) as price was not able to penetrate an immediate resistance, which in turn caused an immediate reversal on the next Daily bar/candle. if in this case, u were in this trade, & u checked the lower timeframes, u would have had a (/an additional) heads-up/warning sign of what lies ahead of your trade. this is just a hypothetical example, but i hope u get the picture.
  • #30,643
  • May 20, 2009 9:04pm May 20, 2009 9:04pm
Ahhh...a pennant....that is a consolidation pattern. The bar on Dec 4 is not a pennant - it's a rejection....the flag wasn't even at half mast.....they buried it.
  • #30,644
  • Edited 9:17pm May 20, 2009 9:07pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting KissFan
With all respect that is due and sincerity would you kindly post a chart or give some reasons why this trade is not an "A" set-up in your opinion? I value good traders opinions on this thread and your perception is appreciated. Thank you.

K.I.S.S.
Indeed, the market has run a long way down, so looking for supportive counter trend PA is reasonable, but what is your target? The daily low at 1.1475? Not a great R/R overall.

Given how far it has run though, you will look like a genius if the oversold nature gives you a bounce, but why not wait and sell the retracement?

You could wait and buy closer to the bottom on another intra-day PB, but that type of thing gives me wrinkles.
  • #30,645
  • May 20, 2009 9:17pm May 20, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting Alexandra
Ahhh...a pennant....that is a consolidation pattern. The bar on Dec 4 is not a pennant - it's a rejection....the flag wasn't even at half mast.....they buried it.

The pennant itself is a consolidation agreed.

The fact that the pennant's top was flat leading up to Dec 4 would have many people thinking that this kind of consolidation pattern was about to turn into a continuation pattern. Hence when they saw it reject, the idea of going "counter-trend" was silly... And missed a great PA trade
  • #30,646
  • May 20, 2009 9:21pm May 20, 2009 9:21pm
KissFan,
Am , but let me take a shot at this, if i may..

1. that is a non-strict $cad PB. (close is lower, instead of higher, than the open)
2. the trend is down. taking that PB long is counter-trend
3. oil is sort of in the upmove. it might go to 63 or 71+ (based on Fib)
4. $ is down... moving down/weakening again. (is this the next leg of major downmove? )
5. immediate resistance is around 1.15, 1.1530-50. so, r/r might not be ideal. else u should be quick to take profits or go to BE.

These are not set in stone, so we shall see soon..
  • #30,647
  • May 20, 2009 9:23pm May 20, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting Blackinc
The pennant itself is a consolidation agreed.

The fact that the pennant's top was flat leading up to Dec 4 would have many people thinking that this kind of consolidation pattern was about to turn into a continuation pattern. Hence when they saw it reject, the idea of going "counter-trend" was silly... And missed a great PA trade
What? I like the debate, but you lost me. I took that trade actually - it was a rejection at the top of a market in a large triangle, i.e., it was an early Christmas present.

The large downmove preceding it lead to the conclusion that things were likely down rather than consolidative. Upsloping triangles are often consolidative, but they can be reversal formations too. Wait - I see what you are saying now. Yes, we differ on the implication of the large triangle.....to me the PB was supportive and the trend was sideways to down. Note the trendline break on 11/24.
  • #30,648
  • Edited 9:36pm May 20, 2009 9:23pm | Edited 9:36pm
Quote
And missed a great PA trade

Blackinc,
That's alright.
Next train please
  • #30,649
  • May 20, 2009 9:36pm May 20, 2009 9:36pm
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed, the market has run a long way down, so looking for supportive counter trend PA is reasonable, but what is your target? The daily low at 1.1475? Not a great R/R overall.

Given how far it has run though, you will look like a genius if the oversold nature gives you a bounce, but why not wait and sell the retracement?
You make an excellent point Alexandra about waiting for the retrace and I do trade peaks for downtrend profits as well as dips for uptrend profits. However, I will not trade a reversal bar on a "peak" or "dip" just because it is at a swing high/low. A general way to describe my style of trading is that I make selections by looking at the bars at-around S/R . If I have couple of trusty tools fibs/oscillators showing me confluence I will have success the vast majority of the time the trade gets executed. When I post a trade here I do so before the trade plays out so that I can get some feedback from all that I respect here. This is a learning process for me. I used to keep a journal in the journal section and did pretty well but have come a long way. So far, no blown account and I have traded from day one with money that means a great deal to me. I trade very conservatively and while I respect and your view on "trend trading", I choose to trade the chart any way it traverses when it shows a high probability set up. I'm no genius if this trade goes my way nor am I wrong if the stop gets triggered. I'm just trading with the odds in my favor on every trade. I really have no idea what will happen when i set up a trade and make no claims as to what will happen. While the odds of any of my trades are 50/50 that it will profit or get stopped, the odds of my trades over time are much better because I only take the high probability set-ups. The risk is the same for every trade based on my mm allowance. More will go to TP than will get stopped out. Thanks for the back and forth here. So many of us learn from this type of discourse.

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,650
  • Edited 10:12pm May 20, 2009 9:44pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting KissFan
You make an excellent point Alexandra about waiting for the retrace and I do trade peaks for downtrend profits as well as dips for uptrend profits. However, I will not trade a reversal bar on a "peak" or "dip" just because it is at a swing high/low. A general way to describe my style of trading is that I make selections by looking at the bars at-around S/R . If I have couple of trusty tools fibs/oscillators showing me confluence I will have success the vast majority of the time the trade gets executed. When I post a trade here I do so before...
I like that rationale...one can make pips in either direction with good money management I think, and you try to get good setups. If you are countertrend with no blown account you are choosing wisely. I like your openness to discuss as well...not bad for a Kiss fan! Here is your USDCAD chance though....against the low. You do have some weekly support coming at 1300 and some rather tenuous fibo support in here now. The weekly double top, though measures to 1.06 to me. It has to breathe at some point - I am moving stops based on thoughts similar to yours, though I doubt that I will reverse.

Chaos..this is the same train!
  • #30,651
  • May 20, 2009 9:45pm May 20, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting supremeChaos
KissFan,
Am , but let me take a shot at this, if i may..

1. that is a non-strict $cad PB. (close is lower, instead of higher, than the open)
2. the trend is down. taking that PB long is counter-trend
3. oil is sort of in the upmove. it might go to 63 or 71+ (based on Fib)
4. $ is down... moving down/weakening again. (is this the next leg of major downmove? )
5. immediate resistance is around 1.15, 1.1530-50. so, r/r might not be ideal. else u should be quick to take profits or go to BE.

These are not set in...
Thanks for your take SupremeChaos. I will admit that fundies are my weak point. Besides the fact that this trade may be invalidated before it starts (pin nose may be breached as I post), I do take profits rather quickly as I do not take my eyes off a trade once is is executed. I do not have an issue trading counter trend if I like the look of the chart. Now for the gold nugget-------I did not realize that a "grade A" pin at swing low needed to have a higher close than open but it certainly makes sense doesn't it? Excellent info and mucho appreciated! I'll say it again, I stand on the shoulders of you guys here at J16!

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,652
  • May 20, 2009 9:52pm May 20, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting Alexandra
I like that rationale...one can make pips in either direction with good money management I think, and you try to get good setups. If you are countertrend with no blown account you are choosing wisely. I like your openness to discuss as well...not bad for a Kiss fan! Here is your USDCAD chance though....against the low.

Chaos..this is the same train!
I don't get to post like this every time but it's cool to have all the stars line up like this once in a while. We might print some wisdom that touches someone in such a way that it helps them to realize their goals and dreams. Thanks guys!

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,653
  • May 20, 2009 9:58pm May 20, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting KissFan
I don't get to post like this every time but it's cool to have all the stars line up like this once in a while. We might print some wisdom that touches someone in such a way that it helps them to realize their goals and dreams. Thanks guys!

K.I.S.S.
Agreed - this kind of conversation is healthy - I'm with you though - can only do it occassionally. Thanks!
  • #30,654
  • May 20, 2009 10:14pm May 20, 2009 10:14pm
KISS I had the close at 1.1423 and the open at 1.1411.

What did you have?
  • #30,655
  • May 20, 2009 10:33pm May 20, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting Rosco_P
KISS I had the close at 1.1423 and the open at 1.1411.

What did you have?
1.1433 open and 1.1405 close. This trade came within 4 pips of me canceling my order. It's still ranging within the 4 hr pin. We shall see how she plays out bro!

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,656
  • May 20, 2009 10:48pm May 20, 2009 10:48pm
Mine actually went up and broke the top of the pinbar by 2 pips and then crashed to where it is now. For once, I am glad I bought the retrace and not the break
  • #30,657
  • May 20, 2009 10:53pm May 20, 2009 10:53pm
That's one of the problems with intraday charts - different brokers have different timeslots.

Man's best invention - fire; man's worst invention - the intraday chart. Both will burn you.
  • #30,658
  • May 20, 2009 11:05pm May 20, 2009 11:05pm
Mike,

I was very surprised to hear that your win rate is in the upper 60%, because you are so picky about your entries. I imagined that your win rate would be closer to 90%. Is this because you aim for higher R:R and/or do not move your stop to BE quickly.

Quoting mbqb11
my win rate hovers in the upper 60%, while I know traders in the 90%. Doesn't make one more right then the other in terms of profitability. Trade mgmt is an individual thing. Calling any trade failed without digging deeper into the chart first is likely to place blame on the charts, when we need to just keep studying to get better at our business.
  • #30,659
  • May 20, 2009 11:06pm May 20, 2009 11:06pm
Whats about USD_JPY PB confluent with fibo 50?
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  • #30,660
  • May 20, 2009 11:08pm May 20, 2009 11:08pm
Yesssss! It's a dicey one though. Weekly support as well.
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