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  • #3,201
  • May 19, 2009 4:58pm May 19, 2009 4:58pm
Strat cause you broke all the rules on your sunday night trading bonanza...will you break another rule and tell us your pip total......
  • #3,202
  • May 19, 2009 5:05pm May 19, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting hans356
Hi, Strat!

I do not know when these positions were opened, but I assume the majority of those positions were opened at the beginning of the trading week.

Strat, I understand that many of the yen/crosses all headed north the past few days....
Hans356,

Do NOT post pip count on this thread - please edit your post and delete them.

If you don't know when I opened these trades, that means you are not reading every post which is what you are supposed to be doing. Now go back and find the post that showed those trades.

As I have said many times, do as I say not as I do and I do not trade the way I am teaching on here. I am a few steps further along The Path than those on here.

The yen crosses all lining up where they did was one of the reasons for taking them all. I took them all because they all lined up and because each pair has different volatility.

Had you read my post you would have known my overall risk was low.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,203
  • May 19, 2009 5:19pm May 19, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting GregB
Hi Strat

Could you share some of the reasoning behind closing ALL the positions.

We know that the USDJPY was a countertrend ATM trade and so would be closed quickly.

Was it mainly because nothing showed much promise on the Boss charts or maybe because of your MM plan with so many trades open at once (or maybe something else)?

For example the AUDUSD and GBPUSD seem to be in a strong up move and it may have been worth leaving something on these or stop loss to break-even or a trailing stop.

Just trying to learn a little more about the process.

Thanks

Greg...
Greg,

I was only going to take 50% profit on each pair and then move my SL on all them and had already figured out the stop for each.

Within the last hour, the strength in the JPY pairs disappeared and with them all at levels I consider to be near the top of this rally, did not want to get caught in a big downbar so decided to pull the plug on them.

EURCAD & USDCAD seemed to be finding buyers where they are now so thought it the right time to pull the plug.

AUDUSD & GBPUSD I was going to put a SL on as they are still bullish but after doing some Gann resistance lines, and with them finding sellers in the last hour, decided I would pull them too. I could have let AUDUSD run a little more but didn't want to get caught in a huge downbar that GBPUSD sometimes produces.

The markets, for me, are not set up right yet to hold positions in anticipation of jumping on a trend which is another reason.

Another reason was that they were "not looking right" (gut feel)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,204
  • Edited 5:21pm May 19, 2009 5:20pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting baba g
strat cause you broke all the rules on your sunday night trading bonanza...will you break another rule and tell us your pip total......:d
Absolutely not - NO, never!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,205
  • May 19, 2009 5:59pm May 19, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting strat
Greg,

I was only going to take 50% profit on each pair and then move my SL on all them and had already figured out the stop for each.
Thanks Stat for your reply - it helps to have some insight into how you look at managing a situation with so many trades open at once. I don't plan to attempt to do the same in the near future, I'm still working through the previous posts - but one day ....

Greg
  • #3,206
  • May 20, 2009 1:08am May 20, 2009 1:08am
Quoting strat
Absolutely not - NO, never!
I have experienced people posting pips gained (sometimes also pips lost, but not so frequently posted) on other threads and other sites. It can be very destructive.

1. It encourages comparison between people who inevitably have accounts of different sizes. Some trades can ONLY be taken by people with large accounts. Many people on threads are starting out and are easily tempted to distort their MM in order to grow their accounts quickly, with destructive results.

2. Rather than take ultra safe trades while learning basic trading techniques, it encourages people to take riskier trades before they have the understanding and skills to monitor them properly, again with destructive results. Better to focus on an individual's skill level, as this thread does, rather than risk distortion with goals that are unrealistic at the early stages.

3. People learning to trade have no shortage of ambition or 'greed' about increasing their returns or they wouldn't be trying it in the first place. Examples of successful trades and their technical details are much more important than statements of financial success. The potential pip gain is able to be read from the charts anyway. Financial success is already known and understood, it is the technical means of achieving that success which should be the centre of focus.

So Stat's focus on careful training seems to me to be the way to go and something which marks this thread out from many of the others. If people want to know the pips gained (lost?) then they can read the charts!

I for one am VERY happy to be learning in this thread and don't need pips dangled in front of me for motivation purposes. If I really need to know I can practice my chart reading skills and work it out for myself.

So good on you Strat for resisting the temptation to boast!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #3,207
  • May 20, 2009 6:27am May 20, 2009 6:27am
Hey Strat and team,
USDCAD is at 50% retrace, near long term TL and 1.1420 support.
Big Boss has been bearish, Boss bearish/sideways.
If we get a hammer at around 1.1400, would that not be tradeable because Big Boss and Boss are not in agreement?
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  • #3,208
  • May 20, 2009 6:37am May 20, 2009 6:37am
Quoting shoestring
Hey Strat and team,
USDCAD is at 50% retrace, near long term TL and 1.1420 support.
Big Boss has been bearish, Boss bearish/sideways.
If we get a hammer at around 1.1400, would that not be tradeable because Big Boss and Boss are not in agreement?
Hi Shoestring, it wouldn't be one for me personally as until we see a close above 1.1850, immediate trend is still bearish and so trading a hammer at the 1.14 level would, in my opinion, be a short term trade only.

I think 1.1 is a stronger level to expect a pullback from, at least on my data.

Full disclosure: I'm bearish on this pair anyway so my opinion is biased, so would be good to hear how others are reading this pair.

Thanks
Dan
  • #3,209
  • May 20, 2009 9:34am May 20, 2009 9:34am
Quote
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USDCAD
Hey Strat and team,
USDCAD is at 50% retrace, near long term TL and 1.1420 support.
Big Boss has been bearish, Boss bearish/sideways.
If we get a hammer at around 1.1400, would that not be tradeable because Big Boss and Boss are not in agreement?
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Shoestring, it wouldn't be one for me personally as until we see a close above 1.1850, immediate trend is still bearish and so trading a hammer at the 1.14 level would, in my opinion, be a short term trade only.

I think 1.1 is a stronger level to expect a pullback from, at least on my data.

Full disclosure: I'm bearish on this pair anyway so my opinion is biased, so would be good to hear how others are reading this pair.

Thanks
Dan
Well my take on the USDCAD set up is that the Big Boss has been in a strong DT for 3 months, the Boss similarly and the one bull candle last week is already shadowed by a long bear candle for this week if confirmed on Friday, which has established a LL even though there are two days to go before completion- a BEOB? . I don't really see much of a clash with the B Boss on this.

Daily is also in a strong DT and has broken through Support at 1.14900, also the 50% retrace from the Fib drawn from the end of Sept 2008 and the shorter term up TL from July 2008. The longer term TL going back to October 2007 is a long way below.

From my reading of MY chart - and charts can vary - there is strong Bearish momentum to continue the DT. I wouldn't trade a bounce up at the moment but wait for the current break down to be confirmed further with PA. Certainly any hammer is likely to be a bond imo.

Just my view for the general pot!
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  • #3,210
  • May 20, 2009 10:30am May 20, 2009 10:30am
Trading against the trend is hard. I want to see USD/CAD go through that long term trendline and then try and retest it. The great thing about trading with the trend is that even if the PA turns out to be wrong, you chances of coming out on top are still good because your in the right direction.

Is there such a thing as a bond hanging man?
Bang.
  • #3,211
  • May 20, 2009 10:32am May 20, 2009 10:32am
Quoting AminAS
The great thing about trading with the trend is that even if the PA turns out to be wrong, you chances of coming out on top are still good because your in the right direction.
Amen brother
  • #3,212
  • May 20, 2009 10:44am May 20, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I have experienced people posting pips gained (sometimes also pips lost, but not so frequently posted) on other threads and other sites....
Christopher,

You always post 'Common sense", thank you.

To all
One last word on pip count - it serves no purpose other than to boast and inflate the ego of the person posting. "Ego" has no place in professional trading. There is not one Professional Trader I know or have known, that had "Ego".

When you have practiced and practiced and acquired the necessary trading skills and can do it on "automatic pilot", pip count is irrelevant - it will always come as a function of what you do. The priority is, and always will be, preservation of capital and managing risk.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,213
  • May 20, 2009 11:32am May 20, 2009 11:32am
I just wanted to say that in my short time on this forum so far, this has been one of the better threads I've encountered, in my opinion. A lot of good traders congregate here and it has helped me with pairs I don't normally look at, immensely.

I'm still a fledgling part-time trader (off and on some months). All I can say about myself is that I'm profitable for the last 14 months. However, I'm dissatisfied with my inconsistency. Hopefully, I can learn more from you all and others like you on this forum and get to the point where I can also contribute to the discussion at a higher level.

I just want to say I'm with you on this one, Aston. My entry points are rather elementary (round numbers) so I simply entered a short below 1.1400 after that first touch. It just broke through.
  • #3,214
  • Edited 12:14pm May 20, 2009 12:09pm | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting shoestring
Hey Strat and team,
USDCAD is at 50% retrace, near long term TL and 1.1420 support.
Big Boss has been bearish, Boss bearish/sideways.
If we get a hammer at around 1.1400, would that not be tradeable because Big Boss and Boss are not in agreement?
Shoestring, AstonDan and LEM have provided very sound analysis for you. Let me address your points:

""USDCAD is at 50% retrace"" - This is where you have to be very careful with fib retracements - it all depends on the swing you use. I can pull a fib to justify about any trade I want to take. You must make sure you pull fibs at points where there was a definite and substantial rejection of price, so at swings and the longer the swing or more major the swing, the more powerful the retrace is.

If I pull my fibs from the September 2008 low to the March 09 high, the Worker is almost at 61.8% retrace. The 61.8% retrace is a critical level and considered by many to be the "turning point". They believe it is still a retrace until it gets to 61.8%. If price continues beyond 61.8%, it is no longer considered a retrace and instead, a new trend.

So, that being so, the Worker is almost at this critical level, or the turning point.

""Big Boss has been bearish""
A quick glance at time frames is OK when everything lines up and we are in cruise control BUT when we are nearing TURNING POINTS, it is always better to dig deep and focus on each time frame systematically. Also, ALWAYS remember that even within one time frame, there are MANY trends. Let's do it and dig deep and focus.

BIG BOSS:
The BIG BOSS was in an uptrend until the low of Nov 2007 changed all that. She then recovered and took out the key level of Oct 1991 so now, technically she is in an uptrend WITHIN the bigger downtrend. Pulling fibs from the most recent swing, she is below 38.2% and above 50% so not much help there. She is also just below the 20. She is also at support at 1.1360
We now need to know the IMMEDIATE trend and momentum. So, the immediate trend from March 2009 is down and therefore in alignment with the bigger downtrend. The momentum is shown by the current month which is down BIG TIME. She made a confirmed swing high in March 2009 so we are now expecting a swing low - but where and when? This is as far as we can go with WHAT THE BIG BOSS IS TELLING US.
So now, we have our picture of the BIG BOSS right?

BOSS:
The BOSS is doing EXACTLY as she is told by her BIG BOSS. She is in the same trends. Right? Obviously, the fib retrace is the same and the resistance level is the same. The immediate trend and momentum is down, right?
So now, we have our picture of the BOSS.

WORKER:
We now look at the Worker, knowing that everything on the BOSS and BIG BOSS is DOWN. Where is price? It is below the 20, it is stair-stepping down at about 45 degrees (an important Gann angle), it has broken our TL with a vengeance (when you see a TL or S&R broken like that, it tells you it has a lot of energy (strong trend)). It is now at 1.1360, a line of both support and resistance. Below this is 1.1020ish, lets use psycho 1.1000, which has been a consistent level of support for this pair. The immediate trend is down and momentum is down. What else do we know? USDCAD broke down through some very important levels higher up meaning she has no respect for these levels at these prices. What does this mean? It probably means that external forces (crude, Bank of Canada etc) are wanting CAD lower. Why? I don't know or care.

So now you have a full, thorough analysis? Do you still want to stand in front of this TRIPLE header?

Yes, the train may call in the station at 1.1360 to let passengers off (profit taking) and more get on. Price may recover as the sellers take a break and count their "lolly" letting the novice traders and those eager to part with the money in their wallet get in.

Now, shoestring, are you going to jump in or are you going to exercise PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE along with what you have learned on The Path of Learning?

Again, the MOST profitable and stress free trades are those WITH THE TREND.

How do we trade in established trends? SELL rallies in a downtrend and BUY dips in an uptrend

AstonDan and LEM, you did good with both your analyses. Good job.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,215
  • May 20, 2009 12:17pm May 20, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting zegakai
I just wanted to say that in my short time on this forum so far, this has been one of the better threads I've encountered, in my opinion. A lot of good traders congregate here and it has helped me with pairs I don't normally look at, immensely.

I'm still a fledgling part-time trader (off and on some months). All I can say about myself is that I'm profitable for the last 14 months. However, I'm dissatisfied with my inconsistency. Hopefully, I can learn more from you all and others like you on this forum and get to the point where I can also contribute...
""Hopefully, I can learn more from you all and others like you on this forum and get to the point where I can also contribute to the discussion at a higher level""

There is no ""get to the point"" level on here - you are welcome to join in and contribute at any time so please continue.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,216
  • May 20, 2009 12:31pm May 20, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting strat
""Hopefully, I can learn more from you all and others like you on this forum and get to the point where I can also contribute to the discussion at a higher level""

There is no ""get to the point"" level on here - you are welcome to join in and contribute at any time so please continue.
Thanks. I wasn't sure if there was a convention to use your trading method's terminology (i.e. "BOSS") and analysis template. This is your trading method/thread after all. I like the format though. It's very concise.
  • #3,217
  • May 20, 2009 1:12pm May 20, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting AminAS
Trading against the trend is hard. I want to see USD/CAD go through that long term trendline and then try and retest it. The great thing about trading with the trend is that even if the PA turns out to be wrong, you chances of coming out on top are still good because your in the right direction.

Is there such a thing as a bond hanging man?
Oh yes, and with any recognition candle.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,218
  • May 20, 2009 1:12pm May 20, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting strat
Good lad, see if you can manage this as a "trend" trade then. I will watch your progress with interest.
Well Strat I got stopped out at 96.70 I had my stop closer than I originally thought I was going to having seen your warning about the BOJ possibly stepping in at any time to weaken the yen because I would of hated to give back all my profits during the asian session whilst in bed. However I think my stop was hunted somewhat as the price touched it by 1 pip before forming a bearish daily bar at a 61.8 and 38 fib lines, I still like this short for the reasons I put on my initial short trade...the golden cross etc so I entered again on the break of the low of yesterdays bar and am currently back in the trade.
I have attatched the chart to show you

Thanks
haircut
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  • #3,219
  • May 20, 2009 2:04pm May 20, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting haircut
Well Strat I got stopped out at 96.70 I had my stop closer than I originally thought I was going to having seen your warning about the BOJ possibly stepping in at any time to weaken the yen because I would of hated to give back all my profits during the asian session whilst in bed. However I think my stop was hunted somewhat as the price touched it by 1 pip before forming a bearish daily bar at a 61.8 and 38 fib lines, I still like this short for the reasons I put on my initial short trade...the golden cross etc so I entered again on the break of...
Haircut, be VERY careful - price is approaching 94.50 which is a VERY IMPORTANT and CRITICAL level. It has been a PROVEN level of support in the past and was the one from which I bought this pair on for my ATM trade. This level is also the level of the swing which will determine whether we stay in an uptrend or change to a downtrend. In other words a close below the March 19 & 20 closes, puts us in a downtrend BUT if support holds AGAIN , we will likely see a challenge of psycho 98.00
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,220
  • May 20, 2009 2:26pm May 20, 2009 2:26pm
I can always tell when the markets are boring and direction-less - I start looking at funny mentals.

Here is more on Japan:

Japan's economy during the first three months of 2009 shrank at its quickest pace since records began, as exports slumped, officials figures have shown.

The latest contraction is the biggest since records began in 1955.
Output in the world's second largest economy contracted by 4% during the period, or by 15.2% on an annual basis.

Japan's economy, which depends heavily on exports, has been hit hard by the global downturn.

The figures from the Cabinet Office show that this is the fourth quarterly fall in gross domestic product (GDP) in a row, after a 3.8% contraction between October and December 2008.

In the first quarter of this year, Japanese exports declined by 26%.

"This is a very serious situation, so we need to respond appropriately", Prime Minister Taro Aso said during a budget hearing to Parliament.

Beware the words in bold when trading USDJPY and to a certain extent the JPY pairs.

I fully expect BOJ, under instructions from the PM, at any time, to BUY USD and US Treasury Bonds to weaken their Yen (to make their heavily dependent exports cheaper and more competitive since the USA is their biggest market). The Japanese are very protective of their economy and have always, stopped at nothing to keep the wheels turning. They don't care what such an impact would have on any other country since they are so determined to do what is best for Japan.

Remember, the Yen is the second strongest World Currency after the USD.

If you go back in history there are two levels for the USDJPY:

200 to 280 in the 1980s and

80 to 150 in the 1990/2000s

And, look what happened at 80 - very firmly and quickly rejected to a median 125 level.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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