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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,561
  • May 20, 2009 10:53am May 20, 2009 10:53am
Quoting Jlr
Just out of curiousity, which trades did you have problems with? I only real noteable daily that has totally failed lately was that AUD/USD from my memory. I would think with your exit strat, you would have protected yourself in most situations. Perhaps my memory is just bad though. Personally, my biggest problem is the lower TFs. Its really pretty tough with a small account not to be tempted, but with my failures, I am QUICKLY getting over that lol. I may just instead of demoing, wait for the absolute best trades, total james style, at least until...
There are some more trades that failed apart from AUDUSD also NZDUSD BEOB, and USDJPY doesn't look great neither and so on...
  • #30,562
  • May 20, 2009 10:55am May 20, 2009 10:55am
Quoting alter
There are some more trades that failed apart from AUDUSD also NZDUSD BEOB, and USDJPY doesn't look great neither and so on...
Why I am sticking to Pin bars, outside bars require more experience.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,563
  • May 20, 2009 11:06am May 20, 2009 11:06am
Quoting alter
There are some more trades that failed apart from AUDUSD also NZDUSD BEOB, and USDJPY doesn't look great neither and so on...
THese aren't failed trades. All of these went to where we would have expected, since none of them were A+++ trades. For that reason, we have to be much more careful how we manage. We can't just enter and assume they will blast off.

So IMO, there are very few flat out failed trades, only mis managed trades. Yes we all will have losses, but we can't blame the charts.


usd/jpy went to a lot of clear bar lows. A lot of people asked me if I was taking this and I told them no b/c of the mess above. Now that doesn't mean others didn't take it and get out with some profit, or out at b/e. But if you held past this area, you have to respect the fact that it could have been rejected here. So in other words, you have to make a consious decision to hold past this type of area. A great example of this was the recent NZD/USD daily bar, that was tradingi into a few bar highs, but I held through it believing the area was stronger to work past. There was an initial bounce that almost invalidated my trade. I recorded this trade live in real time, and said prior to entering that it IS entirely possible our trade bounces there, and if it does we HAVE to understand why. Maybe I will put that up in the guest section. So yes the trade turned around in my favor, but I knew going into it , it could have bounced at that point. It is up to the individual trader to determine there trade mgmt, that fits them.

I thought this was important to point out

Mike
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  • #30,564
  • May 20, 2009 11:10am May 20, 2009 11:10am
Quoting alter
There are some more trades that failed apart from AUDUSD also NZDUSD BEOB, and USDJPY doesn't look great neither and so on...
NZD/USD one was basically the same trade. They are very very similar pairs, and the trade occured at the exact same time. USD/JPY was not an A+ trade, trading into 96.50 with the bar lows, and bar highs. Maybe not a bad trade? But I really can't imagine that is an A+ trade
  • #30,565
  • May 20, 2009 11:20am May 20, 2009 11:20am
Quoting mbqb11
THese aren't failed trades....
Mike, out of curiosity, if you don't mind, are you ever interested in how a bar was formed? For instance, you see a daily bar, are you going to lower time frames, to see how exactly it was formed. I notice a lot of the really clean looking set ups, in terms of how the bar was formed, hold a lot of power. Whereas some of the daily trades, when going to lower timeframes, and not forming in such a clean manner, don't seem to work as well. For instance, xyz shots up during a stretch of 23 hours, completely 360 the next hour, forms a pinbar.... these trades don't seem to work as well, oppose to say, 11 hours of buying, 13 hours of selling etc.
Anyways just an observation, could, and probably am totally off.
  • #30,566
  • May 20, 2009 11:34am May 20, 2009 11:34am
Hi PipGator,

I have been exactly in your shoes. I completed 3 profitable months (barely) but still in the black at the end of April. I say I'm in your shoes because my profitable months were similar to yours a 1-2% here and there...nothing too exciting...but still better than losing money.

In May I decided for whatever reason that I will change my exit strategy to something I had not thoroughly tested in 3 months but believed was better (read over-optimizing based on past results). That by itself can spell disaster. On top of that most set-ups that we've had for May haven't worked out. And the ones that would have worked with my old exit strategy didn't work now that I had the "new and improved" exit strategy. So my loss is similar to yours for May as well. Needless to say I have reverted back to my initial exit strategy.

I have fully realized my mistakes for May and I'm fully aware that changing my exit method too quickly as I go along can be deadly. I hope to learn from these mistakes.

I really liked the highlighted part of your post. I also believe that R:R is an important part. I don't understand why everone here downplays R:R so much. If nothing else it is important psychologically. If you have 3 small winners and then 1 loser wipes them all out...psychologically that is not good and doesn't leave you feeling like a success. Now, maybe Jim would say that he wins 90% of the time so there are 9 winners and 1 loser...but realistically how many of us here can claim to win 90% of the time? So I think that you need to be aware of what can you expect from your winners and your losers in real life trading...and see if you are comfortable with that R:R whatever that is.

Another point that I never see discussed here is moving to B/E and how that can hurt you. I understand that many times by moving to B/E you avoid a loss. However many times by moving to B/E too quickly you also avoid a nice winner. I'm sure many of you have heard the saying let your profits run and cut your losses short. How are we doing that if we move to B/E so quickly? We are NOT. We do cut our losses but we also cut our winners at the first resistance and/or problem area. Has anyone done any research of what the results would be if you didn't move to B/E at all and had fixed TP and Exit levels? And does using B/E improve or worsen the results? I did a very small back test of my first 3 months of live trades and the results would have been better without ever using B/E but just having a TP and SL level in place. I guess I just feel that B/E is such a wild card that it can maybe work for some...but it can also not help for others.

I guess I just wanted to share my thoughts and my experience so far. Any comments are welcome as I don't expect everyone to agree with me.

Rubin.





Quoting PipGator
It has been a tough month for me trading and I wanted to share some of my experiences.

I decided at that point to experiment with different exit strategies. [b]I also wanted to improve my R:R ratio. I wanted to get out of the habit of losses amounting to 2% of my account while wins were a much smaller percentage of my account. I know that some veterans here do not consider R:R as a high priority, but I felt that my winning percentage was not high enough and my ability to recongize A+ setups was not strong enough for me to be successful without...
  • #30,567
  • May 20, 2009 11:38am May 20, 2009 11:38am
Looks like suppot has failed 4 now if 94.50 breaks becomes resistance will add on.Could be a head fake 4 now thought 95.60 was the spot if anyone else is bearish patience is key, really feel this could be a big pip maker in due time.Just going to watch pa take it from there.
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  • #30,568
  • May 20, 2009 11:40am May 20, 2009 11:40am
Quoting gorubin
Hi PipGator,

I have been exactly in your shoes. I completed 3 profitable months (barely) but still in the black at the end of April. I say I'm in your shoes because my profitable months were similar to yours a 1-2% here and there...nothing too exciting...but still better than losing money.

In May I decided for whatever reason that I will change my exit strategy to something I had not thoroughly tested in 3 months but believed was better (read over-optimizing based on past results). That by itself can spell disaster. On top of that most set-ups...
Nothing scientific, but I do notice quite a few setups that just shot and run. I notice a lot of other ones that stall, and still turn out to be good trades. I really can see the benefits of both sides, though I can't say for certain which is more profitable, I think either can be used effectively, and both suit different styles
  • #30,569
  • May 20, 2009 11:59am May 20, 2009 11:59am
Hello Every1

There seems no A+ trades lately ---> may be a sign for something big coming?

ALM
"""" --- -- - << ..:: ALM ::.. >> - -- --- """"
  • #30,570
  • May 20, 2009 12:09pm May 20, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting Jlr
Mike, out of curiosity, if you don't mind, are you ever interested in how a bar was formed? For instance, you see a daily bar, are you going to lower time frames, to see how exactly it was formed. I notice a lot of the really clean looking set ups, in terms of how the bar was formed, hold a lot of power. Whereas some of the daily trades, when going to lower timeframes, and not forming in such a clean manner, don't seem to work as well. For instance, xyz shots up during a stretch of 23 hours, completely 360 the next hour, forms a pinbar.... these...
Nope I don't really personally do anything like that, as my focus is on location first. But I have seen others do that.

Best
Mike
  • #30,571
  • May 20, 2009 12:55pm May 20, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting Almfx
Hello Every1

There seems no A+ trades lately ---> may be a sign for something big coming?

ALM
Definitely. Always a great opportunity around the corner
  • #30,572
  • May 20, 2009 1:18pm May 20, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting mbqb11
THese aren't failed trades....
If somebody took profit on USDJPY I would be very surprised as it gave maybe 10 pips, which is nothing in compare to 200pips SL. The same with NZDUSD but what is important to say , there is always some bar high or bar low and of course we can use it to justify failed bars.
However, there is never discussion about bar high or low if trade is a winner and price didn't bounce from it. It is very subjective and lets be honest, ambiguity is not very good if we are looking for consistency.
  • #30,573
  • May 20, 2009 1:19pm May 20, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting markmm
Why I am sticking to Pin bars, outside bars require more experience.
Could you send me a link, where you have this information from?
Thank you
alter
  • #30,574
  • May 20, 2009 1:32pm May 20, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting alter
If somebody took profit on USDJPY I would be very surprised as it gave maybe 10 pips, which is nothing in compare to 200pips SL. The same with NZDUSD but what is important to say , there is always some bar high or bar low and of course we can use it to justify failed bars.
However, there is never discussion about bar high or low if trade is a winner and price didn't bounce from it. It is very subjective and lets be honest, ambiguity is not very good if we are looking for consistency.

While this may feel like the case to you the better setups are not close to this. Consistency comes from practice and experience many of us uave spent years getting. I know from your PMs and posts you are in a very frustrated state but you have to let that go to better absorb and put into practice the info. All three of your mentioned trades i passed on due to the exact situation occuring. Is it possible it wouldnt? Of course but my experience kept me out. Eventually you will be able to distingush these things before hand and will see the difference b/w trades.

Best
Mike
  • #30,575
  • Edited 1:54pm May 20, 2009 1:44pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting alter
Could you send me a link, where you have this information from?
Thank you
alter
I don't have a link it's my opinion. Are you expecting every PA bar to run to 1:1 min, regardless of the location or confluence? No one promised this, if this method doesn't work for you it doenst mean the method doesn't work, theres plenty of traders who make profits from it.

It's good to be cautious and to question any method, and to prove it works yourself. I am in the process of backtesting daily pin bars, I will try and test 2000 to get a small error margin. I will also be recording the data to a database and catching 4-5 different exit strategy results as well as location, confluence divergence, retracement etc. I am developing a small application to make it easier to input the data to the database although it will still be done be eye.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,576
  • May 20, 2009 2:03pm May 20, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting markmm
I don't have a link it's my opinion. Are you expecting every PA bar to run to 1:1 min, regardless of the location or confluence? No one promised this, if this method doesn't work for you it doenst mean the method doesn't work, theres plenty of traders who make profits from it.
Do you have some proof or it is also your opinion?
  • #30,577
  • May 20, 2009 2:06pm May 20, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting alter
Do you have some proof or it is also your opinion?
What is it you are trying to say? If you think PA is BS then thats fine. Why have you came to this conclusion?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,578
  • May 20, 2009 2:11pm May 20, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting mbqb11
While this may feel like the case to you the better setups are not close to this. Consistency comes from practice and experience many of us uave spent years getting. I know from your PMs and posts you are in a very frustrated state but you have to let that go to better absorb and put into practice the info. All three of your mentioned trades i passed on due to the exact situation occuring. Is it possible it wouldnt? Of course but my experience kept me out. Eventually you will be able to distingush these things before hand and will see the difference...
I sent you just one non trading related PM. Buy I wouldn't say these setups were not valid. Why is it so difficult to accept that this method gives also losers ?
alter
  • #30,579
  • May 20, 2009 2:15pm May 20, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting markmm
What is it you are trying to say? If you think PA is BS then thats fine. Why have you came to this conclusion?
I'm just asking if you have proof of your statement above or it is just your opinion {plenty of traders who make profits from it}.
What you mean by BS, please?
  • #30,580
  • May 20, 2009 2:19pm May 20, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting alter
I'm just asking if you have proof of your statement above or it is just your opinion {plenty of traders who make profits from it}.
What you mean by BS, please?
BullS**t is what I meant with BS. I can't give you proof but look at the amount of posts this thread has and people posting regularly for years, would that happen if no one was making any money?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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