Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

Hello everyone,

GBPJPY has taken a nice break below the red trendline since Tokyo open. It is finding good support at 143.33 for now. I'm not in any trades right now, as I have mentioned before, I like to watch the market to see how it will settle in to start the week. If I do make a trade, it is much smaller than my normal trade size, the stop is tighter and I will take profit quicker. I treat it more as a scalp.

I'll check back in later. I know Tatton likes to wait and see what the markets does before he jumps in too. Hopefully he is feeling bettter after the weekend.

After breaking below the red trendline, it found support at 143, and took a little bounce, back to 143.62 S/R area. I think it is going to move sideways in a range between the red trendline and support at 143. London should produce wome what of a decisive move. Usually between the hours of 08:00 and 09:00 GMT, is when a good move starts to happen.

Looking at the Daily chart, you can see 2 significant gaps that formed (red arrows). It shows that 138.50 was a key area, first on the break up, and then on the break down. Looking at the bigger picture, you can see the clear range it has been trading in since it made that first gap at 138.50. Top of the range is the psych level of 151. I think the downtrend will continue to the 138.50 area, unless there is some spectacular bull run on US equities, and it drives risk appetite back up.

Here's what I'm looking at on the 1H. I adjusted the red trendline to reflect todays movement. It is forming a hook pattern right now. A hook is when it breaks the trendline, and hooks back. A good percentage of the time, it makes another bounce off the trendline, or if it breaks through, it will hook again in the opposite direction. EURJPY has a hook forming too.

Morning Dad

Back for a wkend away, looks a pretty quiet start to the week. A hook eh, not heard of that before except on the golf course!

Or at the fishing waters

Charle and LinksMan,

I love to fish and golf, so now you know where I got the term from! Haha! No, actually when I was first learning tech trading, the guy teaching the trend stuff called them hooks, so that is where I got it from.

Crazy day so far. Nice spike up to 146 which has been a pretty good resistence level, and past that up to 146.40. 8-9:00GMT is where I said the market usually moves, but wasn't expecting that much of a move. With that high of a bounce, I'm looking for it to retrace. Watching PA to see if it will reach up to 146.40. As I said before, I'm not crazy about forcing trades, especially on a Monday. I wasn't sitting in front of the comp for this move either. Since it has broken the blue trendline, I'm gonna sit back ansd watch how it plays out. I may take a very small short, in this 146-146.40 area, with a short stop above 146.60. We'll see what develops.

hi all i have just shorted the gbp/jpy ,it has come to the 61.8 fib lets see how it goes but if it breaks the 61.8 its over

john

I shorted also Des. I shorted because all the related pairs seemed to stall out also. 146 has been a tough barrier the past few trading days.

Mornin, Folk... Is this thing a Beast or what?! 100% retrace from Friday. The Daily and 4hr overlapping fibs are right around FXDads' 146.40 area. If this breaks, it could be explosive, but I don't see a driver from the fundamental side...

Tatton! Where are ya?! Missin' ya...

Hey Tulkas!

I see no reason for it to continue up either. I'm not liking this PA right now. Maybe it will range today between 146 and 143. Would be nice to catch a 300 pip down move right now! Mondays are definately NOT my favorite trading days.

A new hour candle has just opened, I'll see where the PA goes on this one, if it looks like it will go up, I will close out before my stop is hit.

I stopped out, -50. I kept the trade small, because I generally don't like to trade on Mondays, and this PA is a bit unusual for a Monday with no major news events on the schedule. 400 pips already today. Maybe the down trend is wanting to end.

Tomorow is a new day guys, take care and trade safe!

Hey Folks,

Didn't have time to make a post today. Hope the resistance, at the psyche level, of 148 was recognized, and some of you might have caught the break. The past 2 days, big moves have happened an hour before London open. Usually it happens an hour into London open. 3 important news items for GBP in one hour, at 09:30 gmt. Tighten the stops just a minute or two beofre the news. Hate any profits to get wiped.

Morning Dad

Yes I did notice the flattening out at 148 but for me usual case of didn't know which way it was going to go. Never sure when to enter a trade if it starts moving in a direction, ie will it reverse, guess I'm just scared about losing! So haven't made a trade on it.

ARRGH!!!!! I have been typing for the past 20 minutes, clicked "submit" and I got an error message saying the the site was too busy!!!! My point I was trying to explain, was make sure you keep your trades sizes small and use stops to minimize your losses. In the beginning of trading live, try and keep your risk below 2% per trade/per currency pair. Then the losses won't hurt so much. We all have losses.... it just need to be less than the wins.

Getting a feel for PA will come with time. I watch candles, not the wicks when deciding when to get in. It all depends on your comfort level. Confidence comes with time, and that is why you are here, to get a feel, and learn a style your comfortable with. Hope this helped. Sorry my first post didn't come through. If you'd like more help with your money management, please feel free to ask.

Dad...

All your posts are informative and helpful thanks, I do appreciate the time it takes to write them etc. If I get over your way will take you out on the golf course in return and give you some pointers! I'm a golf pro by trade, used to have 2 shops at 2 courses but got fed up of working 60 hrs a week & every wkend. Still play and teach some though.

I will get there, know it takes some time though! Lol

Thanks Links! I shoot in the low to mid 90's so I could use some help. A few years ago, I use to work at Primm Valley Gold Club, MGM Grand's golf course in Las Vegas. I miss it. I only played one round of golf last year. So any golf would be nice now. I understand the grind of the golf business.

I enjoy talking about FX. So I'm glad my babble is of some use. Heading to bed now, so I'll be back after a few hours. Take care!

hope you guys caught the ride up on the gj, i am late for the sell but im not 100% that this bear is really a bear, i will wait on the trade, will update on wha im doing

Hello Everyone,

I was watching earlier before the fall, and didn't have a chance to post anything or get in on the move. I hope you all anticipated the break down as it boucned off 148.41, as the tops pushed lower and lower, until it finally broke through the support. Not a huge move but it is an obvious break of the support.

Just thought I'd point it out, so you new traders can see the chart and see the pattern on your own. I added S/R levels in orange, to watch for the next few hours as we go into London.

Good to see you Tatton! Hope you're feeling better! See you back soon.

thanks was real sick.. good now. i had a buy sunday night, wish i put u guys in on it, now im really thinking sells but will wait on market.