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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,441
  • May 19, 2009 11:33am May 19, 2009 11:33am
Quoting pdean123
Here is a Reversal with the "standard" DBLHC definition tied to an RSI Positive Reversal.
Looks interesting. Why don't you start a thread on FF explaining your strategy? I am sorry if you have already. I have not been visiting much of FF beyond this thread.
  • #30,442
  • May 19, 2009 11:56am May 19, 2009 11:56am
Just been looking at EurGbp on the 4H ( will close at 17h00 GMT )

We could see a good Pin form here. I don't see a good price pivot but this area has provided support previously. Also looks like a channel is forming on the Daily and this may bounce off the bottom. If so 9000 could be tested again.

The break would be around 8000 but there are some bar lows to the left to worry about on the 4H.


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  • #30,443
  • May 19, 2009 12:10pm May 19, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting ljr
Just been looking at EurGbp on the 4H ( will close at 17h00 GMT )

We could see a good Pin form here. I don't see a good price pivot but this area has provided support previously. Also looks like a channel is forming on the Daily and this may bounce off the bottom. If so 9000 could be tested again.

The break would be around 8000 but there are some bar lows to the left to worry about on the 4H.


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This probably will not go anywhere as most of the momentum on price is to the downside. My opinion only.
  • #30,444
  • May 19, 2009 12:10pm May 19, 2009 12:10pm
Not sure if gc on the 4h is a valid pin bar, would like advise please.
  • #30,445
  • May 19, 2009 12:16pm May 19, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting driulis
Not sure if gc on the 4h is a valid pin bar, would like advise please.
It doesn't protrude enough for me (If I traded 4hr).
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,446
  • May 19, 2009 12:35pm May 19, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting driulis
Not sure if gc on the 4h is a valid pin bar, would like advise please.
This would not be an "A" trade for me. Here's why-- The good: 1. At round number 1.7200. 2. At swing high. The bad: 1. No other confluence example--divergence, fibs. 2. Pin is deformed in the sense that the nose is too short. 3. I need room to make money after the break of the bar and before I get into an area where there has been consolidation. I see 30 pips before that happens. Not good R/R. Not a very convincing bar either.

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,447
  • May 19, 2009 12:58pm May 19, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting mbqb11
This is only to help you asking the following questions.

How long have you been trading successfully at 1% risk?

How many trades was it total?

What makes you think after x months, moving to 2% risk is a good idea? How about 3%?

What were your motives for upping to 3% risk? Greed? You want more now?

Did you know every time you double your risk you double your max drawdown? So if you have a method that historically has a max drawdown of 20%, at 1% risk per trade, when you now risk 2% per trade effectively that max drawdown becomes 40%.

Again...
Hi Mike, and all that are reading.

Like I said, I have been trading successfully without any loss since February and that was about three months ago it was a total 13 trades now that I remember.
Some of them produce a small profit and some of them are stopped out at breakeven.
And as always as a beginner I always start at 1% of my account as a risk factor, I position size my trades accordingly, and train myself to solve money management issues that I'm having a first, and after seeing those positive results, I'm beginning to say to myself that maybe this is the time that I am already consistently profitable. So out of none other than greed I increase my risk to 2 percent.
And, honestly said, that was my only and sole motivation.
When I finally get to 3% then came the euphoria, I was thinking that "I can no longer fail" especially when the last trade came out positive.
And to answer the question did I want more now? I can answer you yes I did. And the rest is history.
Sure, there are also considerations on how the stop loss on a weekly time frame can be rather large but now I can issue myself that no other reasons besides the desire to have more quickly and instantly.
And along the journey I have also pointed to myself that I have to make at least 5% each month, which also led to taking less than best trades, also includes kicking myself when I didn't take a setup that turns out very profitable. I think that along with everything else is one of the reason for my latest loss.
I've wrote an e-mail to Jim to talk about trading for a living, and he has reminded me time after time after time that everything will fall into places in due time, and trying to live off my trading at the moment is playing with fire. And even with all the warnings, I did exactly what he told me not to.

I think I will be using 1% risk until the end of the year or until I can prove myself I can do it flawlessly in six months. I need to retrace my steps and re-study everything.

Mike has always been the one to offer his advice when I am about to derail myself, and there's something I'd like to tell you mike, I know now that there will be a very long learning curve for me through this business, so I hope you can cope with my e-mails, because I feels so uneasy that I haven't had any progress since the first time I came in here.

Lord knows that I am very thankful to you and Jim and everyone else here in ways that words alone cannot describe.

Best.

Marcel Nyo.

PS: I am using a speech recognition program to write this... so please bear with the weird sentences
  • #30,448
  • May 19, 2009 1:28pm May 19, 2009 1:28pm
anyone short the GBP/CHF 4H pin? i see there is divergence on the 1H too.
  • #30,449
  • May 19, 2009 1:33pm May 19, 2009 1:33pm
Wanted to share a video I made for my blog. Basically I made a PA system and these are the trades it produced. Pretty nice, but the main point is, PA does work. Even a stupid system that I made over the weekend actually worked. One that is completely rules based, and has absolutely no discretion whatsoever. I took it over to a few other pairs and it worked too. I still can't believe it. Anyway, not trying to promote taking stupid random trades, just wanted to show the power of PA. With some better discretion, and a long period of time, I believe PA will crush. Hope someone enjoys it (PS MUTE IF YOU DON'T LIKE WEIRD MUSIC)
http://www.motionbox.com/external/hd...c6b2218439350c
  • #30,450
  • May 19, 2009 1:53pm May 19, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting Jlr
Wanted to share a video I made for my blog. Basically I made a PA system and these are the trades it produced. Pretty nice, but the main point is, PA does work. Even a stupid system that I made over the weekend actually worked. One that is completely rules based, and has absolutely no discretion whatsoever. I took it over to a few other pairs and it worked too. I still can't believe it. Anyway, not trying to promote taking stupid random trades, just wanted to show the power of PA. With some better discretion, and a long period of time, I believe...
Am interested,

I know nothing about EA's or whatever, but if you had a parameter that was like.

Trade when PA is x y and z - fine thats the easy part.

And then if you could draw in horizontal lines to represent PPZ it only takes trades when the PA has the horizontal lines going through it . . if you get me ?

Is that possible in the world of EA's ? lol I dunno.

It would be a semi-automatic EA I guess, requiring just the lines to be put in at the start of the week.
  • #30,451
  • May 19, 2009 1:53pm May 19, 2009 1:53pm
Going to watch price action at 1.1500 seems like this could push on down to 1.1300 area if support can flip to resistance
  • #30,452
  • May 19, 2009 2:05pm May 19, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting raczekfx
It's a ZERO sum game after all.
Not quite so with FX: there is certain (and not small) amount of non-trade transactions, i.e. when clients need to convert currencies irrespective of the rates to pay for large commercial orders to buy stock in local currencies.

Also, DarkStar (I believe) gave an example of one trader exiting, say, Long is(profitably) - on the other side of that transaction is a trader who is going Short (which could be profitable too), and so on.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #30,453
  • May 19, 2009 2:07pm May 19, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting raczekfx
I shorted 4 yen crosses without blinking my eye
Raczek, do you take into consideration correlation when you open such positons, i.e. do you open 4 x 1% or 4 x 0.25%? Many thanks!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #30,454
  • May 19, 2009 2:10pm May 19, 2009 2:10pm
The aren't any bars in the daily timeframe that interests me today I guess I'll take a nap for a few hours and then evaluate the charts later, it is already 2 AM here.
  • #30,455
  • May 19, 2009 2:15pm May 19, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Am interested,

I know nothing about EA's or whatever, but if you had a parameter that was like.

Trade when PA is x y and z - fine thats the easy part.

And then if you could draw in horizontal lines to represent PPZ it only takes trades when the PA has the horizontal lines going through it . . if you get me ?

Is that possible in the world of EA's ? lol I dunno.

It would be a semi-automatic EA I guess, requiring just the lines to be put in at the start of the week.
Hmm to be honest I never really thought about making it into an EA. I might ask my brother, see if he can help me out. I'm probably the last person that could get that working.

Its basically just a very very simple system that has very set in stone requirements. For instance, price has to have traveled at least 300 pips, before retracing more then 200 points, while the PA is forming, to be considered a trade. I only made this requirement because of the take profit I was trying to implment which was take 3/4ths at .3:1, take pips and use against S/L, and aim for 4:1 RR on the last lot. If price is just ranging, it'll be a lot harder to get there on the last lot. Also requires at least 6 30 min bars, as I really don't want to be taking PA on a smaller timeframe. There are a lot of other sillier ones I won't even try to explain. If I get a EA going, or discover anything interesting, ill update. I still don't believe such a system can actually work, but I'm open to anything.

Oh ya the main one is the respect for the 100 even numbers. I look for PA to form in that range, and I play the break of it a few points out.
  • #30,456
  • May 19, 2009 2:18pm May 19, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Hi Mike, and all that are reading.

Like I said, I have been trading successfully without any loss since February and that was about three months ago it was a total 13 trades now that I remember.
Some of them produce a small profit and some of them are stopped out at breakeven.
And as always as a beginner I always start at 1% of my account as a risk factor, I position size my trades accordingly, and train myself to solve money management issues that I'm having a first, and after seeing those positive results, I'm beginning to say to myself that...

Marcel,

I would not want to pretend to advise you on your risk level -- moving back to 1% is probably a good idea, especially considering your state of mind. But you should not be so discouraged by a single loss. 13 trades since February without a loss is great trading, even if the wins weren't so big. Keep it up.
"A is A"
  • #30,457
  • May 19, 2009 2:22pm May 19, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting Forex007
Not quite so with FX: there is certain (and not small) amount of non-trade transactions, i.e. when clients need to convert currencies irrespective of the rates to pay for large commercial orders to buy stock in local currencies.

Also, DarkStar (I believe) gave an example of one trader exiting, say, Long is(profitably) - on the other side of that transaction is a trader who is going Short (which could be profitable too), and so on.
it's actually a zero sum(negative zero sum with spreads/commissions). What DS was simply saying is just b/c it is a zero sum doesn't mean the trader closing his short, that there has to be a direct loser on the other side(ie someone else could just be intiating a buy order and closes it later on for a profit also). The idea is when someone is buying someone has to sell. There is always someone on the other side making it a zero sum game. Then you add in spreads and commissions and it is negative zero. Every transaction works the same in that way.

Mike
  • #30,458
  • May 19, 2009 2:32pm May 19, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting driulis
Not sure if gc on the 4h is a valid pin bar, would like advise please.
i actually quite like this setup. i have two feeds and on one it shows a 4h pin and the shows an 8h pin..ish bar.i have a fib confluence @ about 73-7340 which is a lttle way up but i like the location.could be a possible tripple top?? i also have a tl price might respect??
right now im not sure if its gonna breakout or reverse??
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,459
  • May 19, 2009 2:36pm May 19, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
it's actually a zero sum(negative zero sum with spreads/commissions). What DS was simply saying is just b/c it is a zero sum doesn't mean the trader closing his short, that there has to be a direct loser on the other side(ie someone else could just be intiating a buy order and closes it later on for a profit also). The idea is when someone is buying someone has to sell. There is always someone on the other side making it a zero sum game. Then you add in spreads and commissions and it is negative zero. Every transaction works the same in that way....
Thanks for the clarification, Mike! From the perspective of money not coming from anywhere, I agree (indeed, if ALL trades on a particular day made profit, where would the money come from )
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #30,460
  • May 19, 2009 2:37pm May 19, 2009 2:37pm
Yes, a triple top.+ some divergence in 1hr.

Quoting g_j_hook@yah
i actually quite like this setup. i have two feeds and on one it shows a 4h pin and the shows an 8h pin..ish bar.i have a fib confluence @ about 73-7340 which is a lttle way up but i like the location.could be a possible tripple top?? i also have a tl price might respect??
right now im not sure if its gonna breakout or reverse??
jon
Attached Image
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
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