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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,761
  • May 18, 2009 4:11am May 18, 2009 4:11am
Quoting Marubozu
Hello guys! Quite a bit of time has passed since I last posted here. In the meantime I kinda took a semi-break from forex for personal reasons (lack of time) and backtesting some new strategies (still this 4H one is the best, btw).

So anyway, this morning I was looking to taking a long trade on GU, but in the end decided not to because I didn't quite like the way 8 & 21 MAs were (and still are) tangled. I just want to hear (read) your take on this... would you have entered this trade?

Reasons for the trade would be:
1) Morning star followed...
Marubozu,

well done, you understand the method and market. I to was looking at this setup, however like you didn't take it. A couple of reasons why I didnt take it:
- Candle formation on my charts is slightly different to your attached image. This is just from the MIG 1H time difference and therefore didn't form your reference to a morning star. (I wouldn't actually class this as one - in my mind its more of a hammer, still a valid bottom reversal signal)
- The resistance zone around 1.5240 would prove to be too small of a potential reward.
- 1H chart shows a low high which is the 1st time thats happened in about 8 trading days.
- 1D seems to be losing upward pressure and the trend seems to have changed from up to sidewards. Waiting for a clear confirmation of direction.

As some of you have asked - I will continue with the lesson serious and will be uploading lesson 2 tomorrow.

Cheers WG
  • #19,762
  • May 18, 2009 4:25am May 18, 2009 4:25am
Thanks for the input, xeneric and WG.
Quoting welshguy2000
- 1D seems to be losing upward pressure and the trend seems to have changed from up to sidewards. Waiting for a clear confirmation of direction.
Forgot to mention this aspect in my analysis (only referred to the 4H chart), but yeah, didn't seem like it's got a clear direction on the daily.
Quoting welshguy2000
As some of you have asked - I will continue with the lesson serious and will be uploading lesson 2 tomorrow.
Great! I'm looking forward to it since your last vid on Friday. Fell like I still got a lot of things to learn and it never hurts to go through the basics again, helps freshen things up and maybe get a new perspective on certain things.

One thing I want to ask of you though... if you can, try to keep the videos in HD or at least HQ, cause it's a pain to spot some of those fibs, trendlines or wicks on an YT video, even if I go fullscreen.

Cheers!
  • #19,763
  • May 18, 2009 3:44pm May 18, 2009 3:44pm
Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to post a quick update on the trade we discussed earlier, the one I decided not to take. In hindsight, it would've been a profitable trade. So had I took it, my profit target, like I said, would've been around 1.5350.

I would've probably closed my position somewhere around 5340 because it was very close to 5350, so basically well within my target zone and this happened later in the evening and I would've looked for a chance to bank it and finish for the day.

As I'm writing this, the high was at 1.5347 and the 1H is forming what looks like a RT, and also previous 1H candle made a lower low compared to the preceding candle and formed a bit of a hanging man.

But enough dribble, you can see it on the charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_18may_4h.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_18may_1h.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #19,764
  • May 18, 2009 5:18pm May 18, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting Marubozu
Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to post a quick update on the trade we discussed earlier, the one I decided not to take. In hindsight, it would've been a profitable trade. So had I took it, my profit target, like I said, would've been around 1.5350.

I would've probably closed my position somewhere around 5340 because it was very close to 5350, so basically well within my target zone and this happened later in the evening and I would've looked for a chance to bank it and finish for the day.

As I'm writing this, the high was at 1.5347...
Yes, WG does have a very good system based on Phil's.
Next time you do a similar analysis, you should demo trade it or trade it on a very small micro account. Keep testing your results until they are consistent.
  • #19,765
  • May 18, 2009 6:43pm May 18, 2009 6:43pm
wg, can you post your macd indicator please. I think mine has diferent settings then the one in your video. thanks
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #19,766
  • May 19, 2009 3:17am May 19, 2009 3:17am
Quoting sevejose
wg, can you post your macd indicator please. I think mine has diferent settings then the one in your video. thanks
everything you need can be found here:

http://www.fxtradeblog.com/tools.html

cheers WG
  • #19,767
  • May 19, 2009 2:04pm May 19, 2009 2:04pm
Evening everyone,

I have taken a long TC (trend continuation) on the close of the 19:00 (BST) candle. I entered on a pull back to the 8EMA on the 1H, the reasons for the trade are as follows:

1) 4H closed above the bearish engulfing candle on the 15-05-2009 (16:00).
2) Belt holding signal candle close on the 4H chart which has found support off the 8EMA.
3) Price action placed a higher high on the 1H (by 2 pips) .
4) Hammer formation on the 1D which has found support on the 21EMA showing momentum to the upside.

Entry @ 1.3635
TP: 1.3737 (Just below 100% fib retracement line)
Sl: 1.3425

I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade tomorrow - in the mean time please take a look at the attached image.

To receive updates of my videos please subscribe to my channel in my signature: http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur4h(19-05-09).gif Size: 23 KB
  • #19,768
  • Edited 5:40pm May 19, 2009 5:26pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Evening everyone,

I have taken a long TC (trend continuation) on the close of the 19:00 (BST) candle. I entered on a pull back to the 8EMA on the 1H, the reasons for the trade are as follows:

1) 4H closed above the bearish engulfing candle on the 15-05-2009 (16:00).
2) Belt holding signal candle close on the 4H chart which has found support off the 8EMA.
3) Price action placed a higher high on the 1H (by 2 pips) .
4) Hammer formation on the 1D which has found support on the 21EMA showing momentum to the upside.

Entry @ 1.3635
TP:...
Hi WG,

My chart is different from yours. It doesn't have the beltholding candle and seems to be showing some indecision. Are u expecting a breakout from EU like with GU ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #19,769
  • May 19, 2009 6:57pm May 19, 2009 6:57pm
WG, thank you. I notice your charts have an earlier signal then mine. What broker do you use? tks
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #19,770
  • May 20, 2009 12:14am May 20, 2009 12:14am
He uses MIG. You can see the broker on the bottom-left corner of the charts.
Quoting xeneric
Hi WG,

My chart is different from yours. It doesn't have the beltholding candle and seems to be showing some indecision. Are u expecting a breakout from EU like with GU ?
Yeah, same here. I'm using IBFX too.
  • #19,771
  • Edited 1:26am May 20, 2009 1:07am | Edited 1:26am
Quoting Marubozu
He uses MIG. You can see the broker on the bottom-left corner of the charts.

Yeah, same here. I'm using IBFX too.
It is clearly a long now so good trade WG but lots of resistance close by.
We'll have to see what price does around resistance, whether it breaks through it.
  • #19,772
  • May 20, 2009 1:48am May 20, 2009 1:48am
Morning All,

Yeh MIG charts do look slightly different, this only occurs on the 4H time frame due to them being on CET with is +1 GMT (I think) I've sent them a mail to find out exactly what timezone their servers are on.

What does this mean for you? Pretty much nothing to be honest, if you look back through the thread there are many questions about whether the time zone actually matters, in my mind it doesn't. For chart comparison this does make it slightly confusing, but if you are aware of the candle patterns and how they respond to the EMA's / MA's / fibs & trend lines then you should have no problems.

I'm guessing my signal just got my in the market slightly earlier than you guys? This morning would have given you a better entry than myself.

There was a point this morning in which a few people would have questioned the signal which might have caused a few of you to exit at a loss, I will go through this on the video and show you the signals which would have given you confidence in the upward momentum.

Hope that helps!

Cheers WG
  • #19,773
  • May 20, 2009 1:56am May 20, 2009 1:56am
Eagerly awaiting your next 4H lesson video as well as actual trade videos.
  • #19,774
  • May 20, 2009 2:30am May 20, 2009 2:30am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning All,


I'm guessing my signal just got my in the market slightly earlier than you guys? This morning would have given you a better entry than myself.

There was a point this morning in which a few people would have questioned the signal which might have caused a few of you to exit at a loss, I will go through this on the video and show you the signals which would have given you confidence in the upward momentum.

Hope that helps!

Cheers WG
Thanks WG. Always appreciate your videos.

I avoided EU because of the resistance. However I traded EJ during the Asian session when it bounced off support and netted 69 pips.
  • #19,775
  • May 20, 2009 2:30am May 20, 2009 2:30am
Hi where do I get to read all the pdf as you mention? I keen to learn your MACD strategy. Thanks You.


Quoting Phillip Nel
I am using this 4 Hour strategy only for the last month(Jan2007) as I have papertraded for 2 years trying everything and or system I could find. (I am trading equities for almost 10 years)I have decided that I will only go live(after some losses-not to serious) after I have studied the field of forex and are satisfied that I have a system that works. I do believe that we are trying to make it to impressive and difficult. This system is simple and easy to understand. I have backtested and forward tested it over more than 200 trades and it gives 300+...
  • #19,776
  • May 20, 2009 2:40am May 20, 2009 2:40am
Quoting johnnyyong
Hi where do I get to read all the pdf as you mention? I keen to learn your MACD strategy. Thanks You.
Hi Johnny,

Welcome to the thread. Most of the lessons are on www.fxtradeblog.com under "the method". It is a site dedicated to this strategy. You can also get the MACD indicator there. Also Welshguy is currently making some lessons on youtube.
  • #19,777
  • May 20, 2009 3:45am May 20, 2009 3:45am
Hi,

Did anyone use philip combo system
  • #19,778
  • May 20, 2009 5:16am May 20, 2009 5:16am
wow, I took this TC
morning star bounce off 8 EMA
TP is previous high 1.3730

Dhalsim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 20090520 01.gif Size: 24 KB
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #19,779
  • May 20, 2009 6:41am May 20, 2009 6:41am
Quoting welshguy2000
Evening everyone,

Entry @ 1.3635
TP: 1.3737 (Just below 100% fib retracement line)
Sl: 1.3425

Cheers WG
I have just closed this trade @ 1.3729 + 94 pips

I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade tonight. To receive updates of my videos please subscribe to my channel in my signature: http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith
  • #19,780
  • May 20, 2009 4:22pm May 20, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting welshguy2000
I have just closed this trade @ 1.3729 + 94 pips

I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade tonight. To receive updates of my videos please subscribe to my channel in my signature: http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith
Congrats guys WG and Dhalsim .
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