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  • #11,521
  • May 19, 2009 2:44am May 19, 2009 2:44am
Quoting PLooB
lol I realise that. But if you go back to about 25th Nov and late Oct there is resistance or do you think those points are not significant because they are too old?
Ok I see what you mean.

The last time price was at this level is likely to have the most influence so I would say that Dec invalidates Oct/Nov levels.

BRV always says look at the last wave.

It is December's highs that are being discussed on the news wires.
  • #11,522
  • May 19, 2009 3:18am May 19, 2009 3:18am
Can I just emphasize a point - there is no right or wrong in a thread like this, only opinions that can be discussed.

Don't be afraid to post your charts/opinions/questions, we are dealing with probabilities here not certainties.
  • #11,523
  • May 19, 2009 3:56am May 19, 2009 3:56am
Quoting RedCabbage
You're on the right track.

What other evidence is there for a reaction at this price other than RBS/SBR?
Hey sorry for taking so long to reply. The reason I was hesitant about this trade is that I had little other evidence than a RBS/SBR (that means Resistance becomes Support / vice versa right?). Other evidence I had was the downward pressure the market would receive to continue the daily pattern and I believed that it would take the first opportunity to sink down a couple points.
  • #11,524
  • May 19, 2009 4:10am May 19, 2009 4:10am
Quoting Sam's Voice
Hey sorry for taking so long to reply. The reason I was hesitant about this trade is that I had little other evidence than a RBS/SBR (that means Resistance becomes Support / vice versa right?). Other evidence I had was the downward pressure the market would receive to continue the daily pattern and I believed that it would take the first opportunity to sink down a couple points.
It was a 38 Fib, and the reaction last time price was at this level was strong.

It gave 30-40 pips so there was enough room for an entry and a move to b/e to see if this was the right train to be on!
  • #11,525
  • May 19, 2009 4:21am May 19, 2009 4:21am
Sorry this is a bit late.

I'm getting bored of seeing mostly my own posts on here.

Stop now at b/e and at risk.
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  • #11,526
  • May 19, 2009 4:36am May 19, 2009 4:36am
Hey, guys!

Back in town. Today I'm an FX trainee at a romanian firm and I'm trading GBPJPY. Wish me luck. I'll be reading and posting to the forum soon . Today I took a nobrainer short on GBPJPY @ 149.40 with a 60 pip Take profit that was hit.
  • #11,527
  • May 19, 2009 4:56am May 19, 2009 4:56am
Dear all,

I tried to fade H1 GBP and AUD today with significant R/S (.77, 1.535) and expect both S/R give a good rebound, but both hit my stop loss immediately. Anyone can give me your opinion?
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  • #11,528
  • Edited 5:41am May 19, 2009 5:06am | Edited 5:41am
Quoting kk007
Dear all,

I tried to fade H1 GBP and AUD today with significant R/S (.77, 1.535) and expect both S/R give a good rebound, but both hit my stop loss immediately. Anyone can give me your opinion?
IMO some times the magic doesn't work. Seriously though, It looks to me like you attempted to trade against the trend, which is ok, except the levels have been used and abused by multiple hits; at least three hits on each chart.

PS, I think on both these charts, you have an opportunity. The price will probably come down and form a Zone on both of these levels you drew and will probably bounce up if they do come down for the touch; the bounce up would be with the trend.
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  • #11,529
  • May 19, 2009 5:10am May 19, 2009 5:10am
Hi guys. eurusd took off with most of the others earlier, an although I had a great line marked, and it hit to the pip, I did not take the sell because I did not feel comfortable with the announcements and the pace it was moving. Now it has quietened down I have reassesed and will take the sell if it comes up to my line again, and stalls. If it continues down I would take a buy at 1.3570 if the line holds as this was a major line also. easier to see on 4 hr chart. This top line has been held tightly over a long period of time, which is also easier seen on 4 hr.
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  • #11,530
  • May 19, 2009 5:15am May 19, 2009 5:15am
crikey, put the wrong eurusd chart on. having trouble uploading it. will be shortly
  • #11,531
  • May 19, 2009 5:19am May 19, 2009 5:19am
Quoting kk007
Dear all,

I tried to fade H1 GBP and AUD today with significant R/S (.77, 1.535) and expect both S/R give a good rebound, but both hit my stop loss immediately. Anyone can give me your opinion?
Hi kk007 -AUD aside for a minute and only looking at GBP, there was a quick retrace on the hourlies and an immediate visit back up to the level (1.5350).

When you see a quick move like that back up into an area expect a breakout at that point. Its a common pattern.

Price was used in recent history (in this case may 12), comes back up to it again (earler today), fades it a little bit, and then comes charging for it again only a few hours later 90% of the time means breakout of some form.
  • #11,532
  • May 19, 2009 5:19am May 19, 2009 5:19am
EUR has been struggling against 3620 now. I believe the pair has downward pressure to continue the trend and if it breaks 3620 will continue downwards. The pair almost hit my sbr/78/bb/r at 3667, coming 10 pips away.

I'm going to be keeping my eye on stops at 3615, 3590 today if it heads down. Hopefully it keeps on going.

Comments are always welcome.
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  • #11,533
  • May 19, 2009 5:20am May 19, 2009 5:20am
so sorry. something wrong with my file management. I will give you lines and look yourselves on 4 hr chart.1.3655 is major line I would sell at, and 1.3570 buy if it holds eurusd chart
  • #11,534
  • May 19, 2009 5:31am May 19, 2009 5:31am
But dailies are stong - buying campaign headed into this zone has been relentless the past couple of days. Its just ahead of the 50% retracement, as well.

Fading an area? If you look at a zone like this one, just look at price leading into it. Getting buyers to hose themselves off is going to be very tough here. Trend trading has been the name of the game the past couple of days, with strength on GBP and AUD pretty fierce one.

It could pause but I wouldnt expect a full-fledged reversal at this marker.
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  • #11,535
  • May 19, 2009 5:35am May 19, 2009 5:35am
Finally have my chart, albeit a bit late. Just have to get it done properly.
eurusd
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  • #11,536
  • May 19, 2009 5:44am May 19, 2009 5:44am
Thanks Tori. I put my shorts on around the 3625 area but I think I'll let them ride until 3655, should be coming up soon actually. I see the market begging to drop in price, think it's too risky to let it go to 3655?
  • #11,537
  • May 19, 2009 5:51am May 19, 2009 5:51am
Quoting RedCabbage
Sorry this is a bit late.

I'm getting bored of seeing mostly my own posts on here.

Stop now at b/e and at risk.
Stopped out at b/e. Market not in agreement.
  • #11,538
  • May 19, 2009 5:52am May 19, 2009 5:52am
Quoting Sam's Voice
Thanks Tori. I put my shorts on around the 3625 area but I think I'll let them ride until 3655, should be coming up soon actually. I see the market begging to drop in price, think it's too risky to let it go to 3655?
Well this is where you would go to smaller timeframe, watch the turn of the hour, and check other charts for direction also. Then you would determine when to enter, dont expect it to come back to exact point, it has already been there, but the closer the better.
  • #11,539
  • May 19, 2009 6:27am May 19, 2009 6:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
But dailies are stong - buying campaign headed into this zone has been relentless the past couple of days. Its just ahead of the 50% retracement, as well.

Fading an area? If you look at a zone like this one, just look at price leading into it. Getting buyers to hose themselves off is going to be very tough here. Trend trading has been the name of the game the past couple of days, with strength on GBP and AUD pretty fierce one.

It could pause but I wouldnt expect a full-fledged reversal at this marker.
Thank BRV and smjones.
I understood that both are counter-trend trades. I expected both would rebound a bit to let me set breakevens.
For the GBP case, yes, it was my omission, I remember that I have been told to expect a breakout in this kind of case. Thank BRV for your reminding me again and your teaching material.
The AUD case is a bit unexpected that the breakout goes without any pause or post-breakout pullback, anyway a probability game.
  • #11,540
  • May 19, 2009 6:33am May 19, 2009 6:33am
hello
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