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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,381
  • May 19, 2009 4:01am May 19, 2009 4:01am
Quoting marcelnyo
IMO you should not be trading like this,and the only thing that interests me today were the USDJPY BUOB, which turns out breaking weak therefore not a good setup IMO.
Quoting markmm
I agree with you, I am only looking at pin bars from now on, good 1,2,3 day pin bars at swing high low for A+ setups. I will then look at other good looking pin bars not at optimal locations but look to move stop to BE quickly. I think outside bars work, but as you say they need to be at the swing high low, not a few bars after. I took a loss on this one also and wiped out my profits from last trade and more (using small account size though, demo for me). Learning costs, we should be glad we are here only losing a few % than using some crazy system...
Good stuff guys. You both are on the right path.

Isn't it crazy. We get a BEOB on the Auzzie that's at a swing high. (I agreee with you marc, the best ones look like this 4 hour Nzd/Jpy from last week), and It gives up a tough 30 or so pips. Then we have a BUOB on G/U, G/J, etc, that's not in the ideal location (which is at swing low) and it breaks hard for 100+ pips.
But this how we do it. We look for the best PA setup that give the highest probability of success. They have to meet our strict criteria because when they do we know that the odds are in our favor.

You have to get use to seeing some PA setups go to the moon without you its all part of the learning experience. It's still tough for me to see. lol


Jim
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,382
  • May 19, 2009 4:02am May 19, 2009 4:02am
Quoting markmm
I agree with you, I am only looking at pin bars from now on, good 1,2,3 day pin bars at swing high low for A+ setups....
AUDUSD was swing high, 5 pips from the previous bar high doesn't make any difference especially on daily timeframe. I think the trade didn't work due to fundamentals and we can expect the same result with NZDUSD BEOB from couple of days ago.
  • #30,383
  • May 19, 2009 4:12am May 19, 2009 4:12am
Quoting alter
AUDUSD was swing high, 5 pips from the previous bar high doesn't make any difference especially on daily time frame. I think the trade didn't work due to fundamentals and we can expect the same result with NZDUSD BEOB from couple of days ago.
What I mean is I want it to protrude like a pin bar, in fact I wont look at outside bars as I am concentrating on Pin Bars. I'm not saying OB's don't work, but I want to master the PB and all its variations (multiple day, proxy, in traffic etc).
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,384
  • May 19, 2009 4:26am May 19, 2009 4:26am
I also took a 2% hit on this trade. IMO the setup was good but not all setups will go in our favour...we have to learn to live with losses and move on to the next trade.
One thing I am trying to get right is mananging the trade once in it. On reflection it may have been prudent to limit the loss by moving the sl to above the bar that closed below the 9500 level...this still would have resulted in a loss but by about 100pips less aprox.

It is no easier to actively manage a trade when in a profit or drawdown.

Possible pin forming at swing high on 4Hr June Crude with MACD Divergence...closes in about 35mins...will post a chart in a sec.
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  • #30,385
  • May 19, 2009 4:29am May 19, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Jeev121
I also took a 2% hit on this trade. IMO the setup was good but not all setups will go in our favour...we have to learn to live with losses and move on to the next trade.
On thing I am trying to get right is mananging the trade once in it. On reflection it may have been prudent to limit the loss by moving the sl to above the bar that closed below the 9500 level...this still would have resulted in a loss but by about 100pips less aprox.

It is no easier to actively manage a trade when in a profit or drawdown.

Possible pin forming at swing...
Yeah you are right. People focus on making a profit when managing trades, its also important to cut losses also as you will have losing trades from time to time. I did exactly as you said and moved my stop to above that bar cutting my loss in half.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,386
  • May 19, 2009 4:32am May 19, 2009 4:32am
Chart as below
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  • #30,387
  • May 19, 2009 4:42am May 19, 2009 4:42am
Quoting Jeev121
I also took a 2% hit on this trade. IMO the setup was good but not all setups will go in our favour...we have to learn to live with losses and move on to the next trade.
One thing I am trying to get right is mananging the trade once in it. On reflection it may have been prudent to limit the loss by moving the sl to above the bar that closed below the 9500 level...this still would have resulted in a loss but by about 100pips less aprox.

It is no easier to actively manage a trade when in a profit or drawdown.

Possible pin forming at swing high...
Another good location for a stop loss is above/below the high or low of the bar that actually broke the trigger or the break.

Examples:
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,388
  • May 19, 2009 5:03am May 19, 2009 5:03am
I have been watching some candlestick/price action videos this morning from this website.

http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Vide...ng-Videos.html

They are not called Pinocchio bars (hammers)... but overall, the same method of trading is being explained. Might help some of us...

Of course, the J16 Guest Section videos are always worth watching over and over...

http://www.james16group.us/

Josh
  • #30,389
  • May 19, 2009 5:14am May 19, 2009 5:14am
Quoting Jduester
I have been watching some candlestick/price action videos this morning from this website.

http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Vide...ng-Videos.html

They are not called Pinocchio bars (hammers)... but overall, the same method of trading is being explained. Might help some of us...

Of course, the J16 Guest Section videos are always worth watching over and over...

http://www.james16group.us/

Josh
I watched some of Steve Nisons dvd's on Candlesticks and he basically says the exact same things Jim/Mike etc say. He goes on about how candlesticks provide more information, even although they both show open/close/high/low. he overstates the fact that the information is easier to visualise, maybe at first but you get used to whatever representation of data you use.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,390
  • May 19, 2009 5:26am May 19, 2009 5:26am
this guy on youtube uses the J16 methodology too, some good videos :

http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader
  • #30,391
  • May 19, 2009 5:44am May 19, 2009 5:44am
Quoting advfntrader
this guy on youtube uses the J16 methodology too, some good videos :

http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader
Yeah, Nial Fuller's videos are certainly worth watching. I get them via email ( free subscription from his website). Pinbars and false breaks (fakeys) are his two favorite setups.

Steve.

Btw, anyone else having FF problems this week?
"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
  • #30,392
  • May 19, 2009 6:04am May 19, 2009 6:04am
I have not taken this trade...when I tried to put in my order I noticed that July contract had become the new front month...this chart shows the pin, but the price it closed at was above the critical $60 round number...so trade sidelined for a better setup and entry...shame as looked good to go on the June contract...may still fall but will do so without me.
  • #30,393
  • Edited 7:01am May 19, 2009 6:07am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting mrsingha
Yeah, Nial Fuller's videos are certainly worth watching. I get them via email ( free subscription from his website). Pinbars and false breaks (fakeys) are his two favorite setups.

Steve.

Btw, anyone else having FF problems this week?

Man, this guy stole all of Jim's material even the same language.

Yeah, I have had problems logging in.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,394
  • May 19, 2009 6:11am May 19, 2009 6:11am
Noticing bearish divergence on 4h for AU. Now waiting for some PA to appear here.
  • #30,395
  • May 19, 2009 6:17am May 19, 2009 6:17am
Quoting ffbk
Noticing bearish divergence on 4h for AU. Now waiting for some PA to appear here.
Yeah I'm watching it as well. This is where patience will pay off. Either by keeping us out of a loss or getting us in when the time is right.

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,396
  • May 19, 2009 6:21am May 19, 2009 6:21am
Quoting raczekfx
I hear ya my friend...
I see people come to this thread thinking they have found a holly grail, blindly trade pins, be-buovb, lose some money, get disappointed and and leave...
They don't understand, j16trading is not a system, but only a method. A VERY POWERFUL method, which can catapult your trading to the highest level possible if you use it to complement your own trading system. Having said that, you still have to use your brain... Many are chosen, but only a few will survive.... . Oh well, you can't save every soul. Everyone has different...
Do you think its worthwhile spending time just watching price action at S/R with Vhands? Im sure you could see a pattern for scalping, like Jeffs retrace.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,397
  • May 19, 2009 6:21am May 19, 2009 6:21am
Might sound kind of far out there, but I was wondering, has anyone ever considered making a PA system? I know when you see a nice pinbar, or buob or whatever, in the right location, with room to run, etc etc, it becomes a trade. But what if that data was chopped up in a way that made absolutely visible signs of any PA, yet all of the other factors that would have made the trade good, are still there. I made a PA system that was devised by studying a few months worth of data on gbp/jpy very close. I then took the requirements I made and tested it for the last 4 months of this year. The requirements I found, that actually worked, were a little far out there, and made little sense... but the resulsts for the last 4 months were very good. In total, between feb-now, the GBP/JPY would have produced 62 PA trades, with 31 wins, 17 even, and 14 loses, not to shaby. R:R is slightly above 1:1. The time frame reversal required, is at least 2 hours, but usually 4-6 hours, and requires at least 100 pt reversal. The same system (some slight adjustments to account for range) I tested on the EUR/USD, and the futures market, both worked, though not quite as well (used a different exit strategy, will have to test with new one)... old strategy for eur/usd produced 56 trades, only 34 wins, and 27 loses, but the R:R was 2:1, so still similar results. My main purpose behind this was to take all of the thinking out of trading. I honestly just can't sit there and make smart decisions, I need something completely in stone, so I can't mess things up. The cash side of the game has really caused me problems. Anyway, I was wondering before I go on in my testing, is there anyone that has tried hard at this, and found it to be impossible? Been pouring some good amount of time into this, and don't want to chase what isn't possible. Also does anyone know of a broker that offers more then 8 months worth of 30 min bars?


On a side note, did anyone respect this 12 hr pin? I got nailed on that AUD/USD trade, when all of the signs could have told me we were in for a rough day today... Ah well live and learn, hopefully
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  • #30,398
  • May 19, 2009 6:44am May 19, 2009 6:44am
A great deal of traders get disillusioned with loses, yet moving the stop with tp1 when we have a small run of say 30 or 40 pips will reduce the risk. I am not sure who subscribes to this or whether it is in the rules for this strategy, yet I know a few of the more successful traders do subscribe to this. It makes sense and makes for less stress, which is why I have come to this thread and believe in this stop plus tp1 strategy around 30 odd pips, I have read it on this thread, and it looks sound. The AUDUSD was a classic example of limiting loses with the move of 30 pips below that signal. As it turned out the AUDUSD was heading into the fib number of 38.2 (not exactly) but close enough in what is an overall uptrend and the round number of 7450. The main problem as I see it , as those that still have the "day job" like myself, is protecting this stop in the early stages of the move. Using this strategy you will "live" to trade another day, and again, the very next day brought us a BUOB which we happily took rather than licking the wounds from the day before and hesitating about what to do
Just a few thoughts on risk management....

Chart below...
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Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #30,399
  • May 19, 2009 6:53am May 19, 2009 6:53am
Quoting mattfx
A great deal of traders get disillusioned with loses, yet moving the stop with tp1 when we have a small run of say 30 or 40 pips will reduce the risk. I am not sure who subscribes to this or whether it is in the rules for this strategy, yet I know a few of the more successful traders do subscribe to this. It makes sense and makes for less stress, which is why I have come to this thread and believe in this stop plus tp1 strategy around 30 odd pips, I have read it on this thread, and it looks sound. The AUDUSD was a classic example of limiting loses...
Might sound crazy, but I tested a exit strat that involves taking 3/4ths off at .3:1 the risk, and using it all against the S/L on the 4th lot, meaning if takes me out on the 4th, ill be at even. The 4th lot I target for 4:1 RR. The results were pretty much similar to a lot of the other exit strats I had tested, but this one was easy, and definately the most stress free. Definately aiming for stress free, thats for sure. Everyone has their own style though, and I think before they determine what it may be, backtesting isn't a bad idea... (its a lot more fun then losing $ trading, as a newer trader)
  • #30,400
  • May 19, 2009 6:55am May 19, 2009 6:55am
Quoting Jlr
Might sound kind of far out there, but I was wondering, has anyone ever considered making a PA system? I know when you see a nice pinbar, or buob or whatever, in the right location, with room to run, etc etc, it becomes a trade. But what if that data was chopped up in a way that made absolutely visible signs of any PA, yet all of the other factors that would have made the trade good, are still there. I made a PA system that was devised by studying a few months worth of data on gbp/jpy very close. I then took the requirements I made and tested it...
I have thought a great deal about this, yet I have discovered another system, that is not the subject of this thread that I have been analysing for over 100 trades now. It uses a very simple technique on the weekly charts, btw it has proved 1:1 win/loss ratio yet the winners are 1.44 of losing trades. The very thread existed on this forum, yet has been kicked by the moderators for whatever reason they had....maybe chat in private about it ?

Cheers....Mat
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
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