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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,241
  • Edited 6:10pm May 17, 2009 5:45pm | Edited 6:10pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Jduester

no objection to what BJohn's comment, it is absolutely correct, giving the market of nonlinearity a frame of linear objective is no different than a trading strategy by moving average or so forth, which I gave up already.
taking whatever the market is willing to give and make oneself available is the proper way to react to any opportunity one can persue. I fully understand the point.

so, basically, I am not setting a monthly target to achieve. what I am referring to is what goal one can achieve in 5 year time, by going through monthly ups and downs, but, with compound monthly rate of 7% on average in the end. my bad , I didn't express this point in an explicit manner.

I don't believe in you might be motivated enough to take higher risk but end up with much less reward as a business goal. we are in business, right? so, we need to see a business reason, otherwise, just concentrate on the job working for an organization, unless one has no choice.

Edit: when one has a prelimiary long term goal which is convincingly realisable and worthy the effort, he would know a reasonable ground anywhere near around, then won't feel panic and be urged to overtrade, after seeing a flat equity curve for months, for instance, coz he knows what the edge is capable of bringing into his account in long run.


Quoting Jduester
Krue
I would fully agree with what BJohn wrote on this topic. I have an idea of what is possible for my specific strategy based on my demo results, but I don't focus on the results. I focus on being patient and disciplined to only take the best setups. By doing that, the results will speak for themselves.

Your post reminds me of something Jarroo wrote a while back... Always remember this quote...
  • #30,242
  • May 17, 2009 6:34pm May 17, 2009 6:34pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
i won't call the pin like bar in your case as a pinbar, coz, by definition, a pinbar has a nose extruding outside surrounding bars, if i am correct.

ghous may give a warning about this, he is fan of inverted pinbar, see his posts earlier. of course, there were failed inverted pinbar setup, as he stated.

i am shorting this pair right now, wish it is a continuation. but, i don't take this as a sign to follow through. what concerns me is the two matching low D1 tf, if it be broken, then, I will have the confidence to see it move some distance down.



Quoting scott087
For everyone in the daily AUD/USD BEOB short, it looks like there is a 2 day pinbar which could serve as a continuation signal. I haven't looked into using pins as continuation signals, but this seems like a good sign for those of us that are short.

Does anyone here use pins as a sort of continuation signal when you are currently in a trade?
  • #30,243
  • May 17, 2009 6:58pm May 17, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting krue
i won't call the pin like bar in your case as a pinbar, coz, by definition, a pinbar has a nose extruding outside surrounding bars, if i am correct.

ghous may give a warning about this, he is fan of inverted pinbar, see his posts earlier. of course, there were failed inverted pinbar setup, as he stated.

i am shorting this pair right now, wish it is a continuation. but, i don't take this as a sign to follow through. what concerns me is the two matching low D1 tf, if it be broken, then, I will have the confidence to see it move some distance...
How i viewed this was that if this low is broken on this pinbar-like bar, we would see a nice move down. For me, a break of .7460 (also the "pin" low) would serve as confirmation of the move down.
  • #30,244
  • May 17, 2009 7:04pm May 17, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
that was for one specific system he used exploit a rare occurring inefficiency. He later ditched due to lack of trades. His main system was run at 2% risk and had a very high expectancy.


Mike
Thanks Mike
  • #30,245
  • May 17, 2009 7:25pm May 17, 2009 7:25pm
Just going to have some patience and watch price action at 1.1800 level
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  • #30,246
  • May 17, 2009 7:27pm May 17, 2009 7:27pm
My analysis in AUDUSD show me a BEOB in the 4h and a continuation of a down trend from last week. In the daily I see also a BEOB wich give me more confidence to be short. I sell at 7466 with stop loss at 7516 and TP1 at 7410 and TP2 at 7360. Any commentes about this analysis will be appreciate.
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  • #30,247
  • May 17, 2009 7:50pm May 17, 2009 7:50pm
Quoting krue
so, basically, I am not setting a monthly target to achieve. what I am referring to is what goal one can achieve in 5 year time, by going through monthly ups and downs, but, with compound monthly rate of 7% on average in the end. my bad , I didn't express this point in an explicit manner.

I think i know what you're trying to get at krue.

If you're trying to conduct some kind of feasibility study, you've got to take in more factors.

For instance. (This is if you're planning to trade for a living, if you're just going to trade in addition to regular job, thats different again)

Your goal is $100,000 a year.

I would say you need a year of live trading (in addition to consecutive 3 profitable months on demo) while keeping your daily job. So you'll progress, so you'll become consistently boring, and so you'll define and understand the volatility of your returns. Keeping a detailed record of your trading. Analyse results, make conservative conclusions.

Then - how much are you going to require for starting capital:-

 

  1. Will this require you to borrow in order to fund account?
  2. Can i psychologically handle a large account?
  3. Conservative forecasts

    1. $100,000 starting capital
    2. 20%per annum return
    3. Rate of interest(depending on country, 9%p.a. (australia, good credit rating))
    4. Thats a return of ~$11,000 per year(if borrowing)~$20,000(no borrowing), with no reinvestment - is that enough?

So now we'll assume a couple of things and make some conclusions.

You're a profitable trader, and can make at least 20%p.a.
You're gonna need at least a $500k account that is not borrowed. This then assumes no re-investment.


So if this is the case, i'd throw this in the mix. If you can make 20%p.a., you're better off going for a job where you can trade someone elses money. And that opens other questions. (and this depends largely on your own personality in relation to your trading)


I don't think you can just take % returns into account. There's many other things you will have to think about to get a real picture of what to expect and aim for. The whole time, you need to be conservative so as not to put pressure on your trading and push yourself backward.

This is a very simple scenario, and misses lots of things. I could write an essay on a real feasiblity study

  • #30,248
  • May 17, 2009 8:18pm May 17, 2009 8:18pm
Quoting krue
Jduester

no objection to what BJohn's comment, it is absolutely correct, giving the market of nonlinearity a frame of linear objective is no different than a trading strategy by moving average or so forth, which I gave up already.
taking whatever the market is willing to give and make oneself available is the proper way to react to any opportunity one can persue. I fully understand the point.

so, basically, I am not setting a monthly target to achieve. what I am referring to is what goal one can achieve in 5 year time, by going through monthly...
Question: What percentage return can you expect in future?

Doesn't matter.
Eventually your account will get to a size where even the smallest return in percentage terms will be a LOT of money.
James points this out often. ...About how much easier it gets when a couple of awesome trades a month is all you need.

You should just focus on your competency as a trader. Are you running your business prudently? Have you proven that you can do that month after month after month? You'll find that your results get better over time naturally.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,249
  • May 17, 2009 9:24pm May 17, 2009 9:24pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
i wrote this question, since i feel lost some guidline to serve me a direction in controlling my recent crazy money management style. i don't know if this is a good reason to ask the question about reward level. probably it is not a good question in itself from the beginning. whatever the result it might be, bundy said it correctly, concentrate on the competency is the dominant target. i need to settle myself down a bit, it is a journey fighting against oneself, who is the biggest enemy.
  • #30,250
  • May 17, 2009 11:13pm May 17, 2009 11:13pm
Quoting krue
i wrote this question, since i feel lost some guidline to serve me a direction in controlling my recent crazy money management style. i don't know if this is a good reason to ask the question about reward level. probably it is not a good question in itself from the beginning. whatever the result it might be, bundy said it correctly, concentrate on the competency is the dominant target. i need to settle myself down a bit, it is a journey fighting against oneself, who is the biggest enemy.
You're right on the money with that one, I'm quite the same and I believe this is one of the neccessary step that a trader for live has to go through, since mike wrote that he once were in this condition too.

Best.

Marcel.
  • #30,251
  • May 18, 2009 12:34am May 18, 2009 12:34am
Quoting bundyraider
Question: What percentage return can you expect in future?

Doesn't matter.
Eventually your account will get to a size where even the smallest return in percentage terms will be a LOT of money.
James points this out often. ...About how much easier it gets when a couple of awesome trades a month is all you need.

You should just focus on your competency as a trader. Are you running your business prudently? Have you proven that you can do that month after month after month? You'll find that your results get better over time naturally.
.
Sage advice Bundy....don't focus on your return.

Just concentrate on trading your plan with strict money management.....write out a business/trading plan and slap it on the wall above your monitor/s if you have too...use it as a checklist for entering a trade. If all the boxes aren't checked when looking at a potential trade....scrub it and forget about it.

Cheers

Dave
  • #30,252
  • May 18, 2009 1:39am May 18, 2009 1:39am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
i am wondering if this is a good location, no pa setup though.
very attractive to go long, isnt' it?
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  • #30,253
  • May 18, 2009 2:27am May 18, 2009 2:27am
Really like this one:
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  • #30,254
  • May 18, 2009 2:34am May 18, 2009 2:34am
Quoting Jigsaw
Mike,

Can you post the link to the Monte Carlo simulation thingy, I somehow deleted the link ( )

Regards.
Jig
Try this:
http://www.financialpicks.com/simulator.html


RM
  • #30,255
  • May 18, 2009 3:42am May 18, 2009 3:42am
Its got a long way to go see what happens? U/J approaching 96 nice place to go short I am going to watch for pa.
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  • #30,256
  • May 18, 2009 3:55am May 18, 2009 3:55am
Quoting pipmyride
Really like this one:
Nice catch bro the 50 fib the 365ema I am a sleep at the helm would of played that myself
  • #30,257
  • May 18, 2009 4:01am May 18, 2009 4:01am
Quoting 4fun
Nice catch bro the 50 fib the 365ema I am a sleep at the helm would of played that myself
Got coffee
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  • #30,258
  • Edited 5:29am May 18, 2009 5:15am | Edited 5:29am
was thinking of a strategy at the weekend related to pinbars, a good hourly pin will usually break hard for 10-20 pips, so basically this strategy involves going in big for 10 pips a day, 5 days a week. thats all you need to live nicely.

anyone tried this ?

probelm I see is that you need big account to practice proper risk/reward but if the pinbar breaks fast...
  • #30,259
  • May 18, 2009 5:28am May 18, 2009 5:28am
Gmornin guyz,have anyone have a look at the new 30min fibs..they show g/j is to test 143.02..from testing 0.0 at 146.12..and heading to 100%fibs at 143.02..nice 300pips range to play
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #30,260
  • May 18, 2009 5:42am May 18, 2009 5:42am
Quoting advfntrader
was thinking of a strategy at the weekend related to pinbars, a good hourly pin will usually break hard for 10-20 pips, so basically this strategy involves going in big for 10 pips a day, 5 days a week. thats all you need to live nicely.

anyone tried this ?

probelm I see is that you need big account to practice proper risk/reward but if the pinbar breaks fast...
Might be some possibility on 4hr or above, where you could be aiming for at least 30 pips or so... I think 10 pips is just to little though, especially when paying at least 2 for entry, you'd need such a high win percentage just to breakeven
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