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  • #3,101
  • May 16, 2009 9:00am May 16, 2009 9:00am
Hi All,

GBPUSD the turning point?

Big Boss has been free fall for the last few months but it stops falling in March. April candle closed higher than March candle closed.

Boss is making higher low and for last two weeks price has closed above 20 and 1500 level.

Daily is making a broad bottom H&S. Price is making stair steps on right shoulder. Price is stalling and 150ema has been supporting price ATM. Will look for PA to sneak in and ride to next resistance 1.5570 and boss 50.
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  • #3,102
  • Edited 9:14am May 16, 2009 9:02am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting One14
Evening Team Strat,

Feedback would be appreciated on this one.

Analysis:
Big Boss - Triangle has formed. Price is at the lower trendline of the triangle and at major support. The recent downtrend has retraced to the 61.8% fib of the Dec 2008 to March 2009 Uptrend.
Boss - Same story as Big Boss.
Daily - Hammer formed and closed at major support (111.00). Price has moved significantly away from the 20 MA. Hammer dipped below support and came back to close above it and it also hit the bottom of the triangle.

The Plan (already in motion):
Buy...

Looks to be a risky trade, a lot like my Eur/Aud trade a few days ago. Counter trend, looks like a poor R/R ratio. Looks like roughly 100 pip gain for 150 or so risked, and that with a counter trend trade. Also it is bouncing off of the 20 on your chart, at a resistance level.

Looks like it will turn and go south on you from here, looking at what it has ran into and the fact that it is in a down trend. You managed it right, took profit early on a portion and got stop to BE quickly. 2.5% risk is a little high for me, I believe Strat recommends less than 2%. Personally I like to risk less than 1% at this point, until I build my confidence and technical skills a bit. I did not have a hammer on my data, not even close to one, so I did not even give this pair a second glance.

These are just a couple things I noticed from your chart, I am currently not following this pair very closely. There are other reasons not to buy as well, price is below the MA's on the worker and boss, most of which are pointing down. I am sure there are other reasons as well not to take this trade.

Hopefully someone more experienced than myself will come along and give you more feedback.
  • #3,103
  • May 16, 2009 10:41am May 16, 2009 10:41am
Quoting rgrace
Looks to be a risky trade, a lot like my Eur/Aud trade a few days ago....
Thanks for the feedback. I am eager to hear what Strat and Black Eagle have to say on this too (and of course others).

On my data, the MAs have flattened out on the upper TF (except the Boss 20) and price was below them. I took that risk factor into account when analyzing this trade. I also took into account the elastic band theory on the Daily.

I didn't mention my targets, but my calculated RR was over 1:1 (130 pips risk to a 140+ reward) based on my first resistance area (112.40ish). This is definitely an area to keep an eye on. Lots of traffic in this zone and as you said we may have topped out. I'll keep you posted on my results.

I am basing my exit on price action and SR AFTER the daily closes, following my plan.

Thanks Again.
  • #3,104
  • May 16, 2009 12:19pm May 16, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting rgrace
Alright, this brings up an interesting question....
Think of the two price reversal bars as magnets with like poles pointing to each other.

Remember what magnets with like poles do?

When one magnet is outside the magnetic field of the other, it loses it's effect - so the same with close by opposing price bars.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,105
  • May 16, 2009 12:26pm May 16, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting KillPhil08
Sorry but;
double top = resistance.
Inverted Head and Shoulders = support (speaking of which look at cable H&S).

What way are you saying it's going?

Do you mean the I-H&S formed in february?
double top = resistance
Agree 100% - but are you saying resistance is NEVER broken?

Inverted Head and Shoulders = support
Yes, if your thinking is ALWAYS inside the box

What way are you saying it's going?
I have NO idea. I do not make predictions. Ask the people that foresee the future. The market is the ONLY one that knows where it's going. I wait and let it show me the sign and then jump on
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,106
  • May 16, 2009 12:30pm May 16, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting 30XTCi
Hi strat, and team.
Just finished reading the thread, it's longer than I first thought, but well worth every minute. Some great synergy working here.
Hope you have room for one more learner.

Roy
Glad you joined us, Roy and look forward to more PMs. "Learner" - come on, you know more than most, especially in our "beyond the walls of trading" approach!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,107
  • May 16, 2009 12:32pm May 16, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting AminAS
I guess it is finally happening. EUR/CHF is breaking to the upside. With a solid close above BOSS 20 and the 20, I am a buyer. Close is in 5 hours.

Where is the volume?

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5107/eurchf.gif

Observe how Dr. Joe's theory is proven yet again with the long lower wick.

PS - I haven't really drawn S/R on this chart.
Be very careful, it's in the 20/50 trap.

Remember my cautions about you using volume - until you know PASR inside and out, forget it - it will lead you down the WRONG path
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,108
  • May 16, 2009 2:58pm May 16, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting Baba G
Is anyone into naked bars and nothing else?
Well, I use minimal trend lines and S/R levels. That's about it. Not fully naked, but much more naked-like than most.

P.S. I am still writing up my "cycle," as you call it. I hate to post garbage and unthought-out-information on FF. So, I'll make sure it's good (at least in my eyes) before posting it.

Thanks for your help.
  • #3,109
  • May 16, 2009 3:09pm May 16, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting KillPhil08
I don't think anybody who actually trades has the time to go through this properly, I have read your site and that should be enough, after all there is a lot of waffle and chit chat in this thread.
Hi, Mr. Kill.

I kindly and respectfully disagree with your statement above. I have printed off three threads on Forex Factory (the only three threads I follow), and study those the old-fashioned way: with pen in hand. I then compile the information most prevalent to me in a "journal," for lack of a better term. One of the reasons I do this is to remove the chit-chat.

I wouldn't say I have "more time" than most. We all have been given 24-hours in a day. It just depends on what we choose to do with our allotment of 24-hours.
  • #3,110
  • Edited 4:04pm May 16, 2009 4:04pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting One14
Evening Team Strat,

Feedback would be appreciated on this one.

Analysis:
Big Boss - Triangle has formed. Price is at the lower trendline of the triangle and at major support. The recent downtrend has retraced to the 61.8% fib of the Dec 2008 to March 2009 Uptrend.
Boss - Same story as Big Boss.
Daily - Hammer formed and closed at major support (111.00). Price has moved significantly away from the 20 MA. Hammer dipped below support and came back to close above it and it also hit the bottom of the triangle.

The Plan (already in motion):
Buy...
OK, whatever you do, now, STICK WITH YOUR PLAN - it's very important for your trading psyche.

What was your goal in taking this trade - was it an ATM trade or?

This is another COUNTER TREND trade - don'y you like the trend?

It's much easier AND PROFITABLE with FAR LESS STRESS, to SELL RALLIES in an established downtrend.

You're in it now, so stick with your PLAN
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,111
  • May 16, 2009 4:06pm May 16, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting AminAS
I see two that really jump out at me. The first is EUR/CHF, which today busted out of the massive triangle it has been confined to for 2 months. The second is EUR/AUD, sporting a nice shooting star into the 1.8000 psycho S/R, the 20, and a 50% fib retrace.

Let's go a tad bit more in depth and add some charts...

EUR/CHF

We have a break of the most recent upper trendline on the daily and weekly, with a strong close above the 20 and BOSS 20. Notice how this bar also closed over the 38.2% retrace of the massive upward move 2...
Sorry, can't help you on this, I don't do EURAUD and EURCHF - help anyone?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,112
  • May 16, 2009 5:55pm May 16, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting strat
OK, whatever you do, now, STICK WITH YOUR PLAN - it's very important for your trading psyche.

What was your goal in taking this trade - was it an ATM trade or?

This is another COUNTER TREND trade - don'y you like the trend?

It's much easier AND PROFITABLE with FAR LESS STRESS, to SELL RALLIES in an established downtrend.

You're in it now, so stick with your PLAN
Sticking to the plan and with the trend on the next trade (dah!).

I Hit my first target and am setting my stop according to plan.

My intent before entering was to eliminate my risk as soon as possible and let my second contract run until PA tells me otherwise. ATM trade.

Thank You.
  • #3,113
  • May 16, 2009 6:20pm May 16, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting hans356
Hi, Mr. Kill.

I kindly and respectfully disagree with your statement above. I have printed off three threads on Forex Factory (the only three threads I follow), and study those the old-fashioned way: with pen in hand. I then compile the information most prevalent to me in a "journal," for lack of a better term. One of the reasons I do this is to remove the chit-chat.

I wouldn't say I have "more time" than most. We all have been given 24-hours in a day. It just depends on what we choose to do with our allotment of 24-hours.
This is a good idea. Someone should make a book using all the best parts of the posts in all this forum. It would be a best seller
  • #3,114
  • May 16, 2009 6:21pm May 16, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting strat
OK, whatever you do, now, STICK WITH YOUR PLAN - it's very important for your trading psyche.

What was your goal in taking this trade - was it an ATM trade or?

This is another COUNTER TREND trade - don'y you like the trend?

It's much easier AND PROFITABLE with FAR LESS STRESS, to SELL RALLIES in an established downtrend.

You're in it now, so stick with your PLAN
  • #3,115
  • May 16, 2009 7:13pm May 16, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

GBPUSD the turning point?

Big Boss has been free fall for the last few months but it stops falling in March. April candle closed higher than March candle closed.

Boss is making higher low and for last two weeks price has closed above 20 and 1500 level.

Daily is making a broad bottom H&S. Price is making stair steps on right shoulder. Price is stalling and 150ema has been supporting price ATM. Will look for PA to sneak in and ride to next resistance 1.5570 and boss 50.
GBPUSD is in a strong bull trend having blown through what should have been a down cycle. Look for PA to get in
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,116
  • May 16, 2009 7:15pm May 16, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting rgrace
Looks to be a risky trade, a lot like my Eur/Aud trade a few days ago....
""Hopefully someone more experienced than myself will come along and give you more feedback"".

No need, young Mr Grace - you did very well by yourself. Good job
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,117
  • Edited 7:22pm May 16, 2009 7:22pm | Edited 7:22pm
[quote=KillPhil08;2738307]I don't think anybody who actually trades has the time to go through this properly, I have read your site and that should be enough, after all there is a lot of waffle and chit chat in this thread.

Come on, what is your real reason for posting on here? Are you here to learn, lurk or cause trouble? If it is to learn, as everyone else posting on here, kindly tell us how we can help and what you need help with and we will do our best, as we always do.

Lang may yer lum reek, laddie
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,118
  • Edited 5:53am May 17, 2009 5:34am | Edited 5:53am
Price action on dailys.........

So you have just dragged yourself out of the lower time frames.....for only one of 2 reasons:

1.It was boom and bust
2.It is boom...but your ill(unsustainable)

Now all our info on the daily(worker bar) takes its orders from the Boss (weekly) who in turn take orders from the BIG BOSS (monthly).

So we know from the monthly we aint gonna get a great trending style run in price....as the monthly on all my pairs are channeling or sideways or consolidating,broadly speaking that is.On some the big boss has broken but "oozed" back down ie NZDUSD pin short(shooting star?) a few days ago would have needsd a "full daily bar stop managemen system" to still be in,which in current market conditions is out of the question for me for reasons i mentioned before.Aussie is the same as Kiwi with its beob 3 days ago only a "daily bar stop management"would do it....but we have had a boss price action engaged long( boss buob) with the monthly channel break long......see?

We have this confirmed on the boss by....for example the bullish and NOW bearish Price action we got.....(nuzyen/euryen weekly chart)

On the daily we have beobs on these two pairs....but we got that weekly battle going.......So i look to the Daddy yen (USDYEN) and i get a "close but know banana beob"....so no help there....

Baba s sentiment:

I dont want to get invovled in a battle and have to take sides.Right now price is showing me a battle ground...so id be at break even so quick i think any ticket i filled would be strangled and as i have said i know a 500 pip move when i see it....shizzer id take a nice 150 pip move...but dont forget i swing 3%....so i dont want any tired,second hand bars or "battle bars" on the time frame above me............

Does this make sense?....take a look and let me know.......g
  • #3,119
  • May 17, 2009 5:49am May 17, 2009 5:49am
Strat - please note 'Not Me!'

Monthly is showing a degree of consolidation since the SH in December 08 at 0.95670 (close) which came after a long rise from August 07 at 0.6740 (close). Since the SH it has been making LHs but last month made a HL on a bear candle. So far the current candle is a bear with a LL than last month but we must wait until the end of the month before any trade can be based on it. But previous candles were closing at the 0.88300 level which is very strong SR for each of the three TFs and the low of the present (unfinished) candle is at 0.87621 showing a LL.

Weekly shows a similar consolidation period with the last three weekly candles resting on the SR of 0.88888. on the 61.8 Fib and just under the MA20. Last week's candle was a bear with too much body to be a SS...but..

Dairly shows a similar situation with Friday's candle resting on the 0.8888 and Fib 61.8 level. MAs are all above the close of that candle. A break down through the 0.88888 SR may lead to the next major S of 0.88007 which is the SL of the last two retracements and also the point where the TL intersects this S.

Trade would be a short-term ATM trade with opening price below the Low of Friday's candle at 0.88792 with SL above the High at 0.89606 a risk of 814 (ouch!) and a possible rewards of 785. A R:R of around 1:1.

Definitely not for me!

Comments anyone?
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  • #3,120
  • May 17, 2009 5:52am May 17, 2009 5:52am
Uploaded wrong Daily chart. Please substitute this one.

sorry!!!!!!!!!!!
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