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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,181
  • May 15, 2009 8:21pm May 15, 2009 8:21pm
Welcome, Leebar.

Nice chart. I believe that most people here prefer to take BUOBs at swing lows. The current BUOB is not close enough to the swing low, but that's just my rookie opinion.

EDIT: I am not saying that this is not a valid setup, just that I would prefer to see the BUOB at a swing low.

Quoting Leebar
Hi All,

Been mostly a lurker on this thread - just reading and learning when time permits.Have notice a BUOB as per the attached chart. Would look to enter just above blue ppz circa 1.834, red lines are TP's.The weekly shows a bullish bar as part of a double bottom off a PPZ. Would be grateful for any comments on my analysis - be gentle! Have a great weekend all.
  • #30,182
  • Edited 9:50pm May 15, 2009 9:01pm | Edited 9:50pm
I see a lot of interesting setups today and wanted to share my thoughts and see what others think. My favorite at this time is NZD/JPY. There is a BEOB on the daily and weekly charts. The weekly BEOB is at a swing high. The bar has breached what I consider to be PPZs near 60.0 and 56.0. There seems to be enough space for a safe entry. Also, price has bounced below a 23.6 fib that I drew. If I am not mistaken, I think we have bearish divergence (Please correct me if I am wrong). The first possible "area of concern" that I can see is near 54.00 (over 100 pips away from entry). If I were to take this trade, I would consider putting stop loss 10 pips above the daily BEOB, because is would be above the 23.6 fib and the PPZ I have identified near 56.0. My profit targets might be near 54.0, 50.0 and/or 48.0.

I am still holding on tightly to the EUR/AUD long I took off of the recent BUOB, which is currently a risk free trade. I also shorted the AUD/USD and am still riding that rollercoaster without having moved SL or taken profit.

I have a stong feeling that stock markets are due for a correction, which means that we will likely see more risk aversion as well as a stronger USD, stronger JPY, weaker commodity currencies, etc.

Right now I am leaning towards staying out of this trade, because if stock markets/risk aversion/etc. do not play out as expected, I would probably lose on the AUD/USD and NZD/JPY trades. I have a feeling that most people here would recommend against having two similar positions open at the same time, but wanted to see of someone(s) could provide feedback on this.

Here are some other setups I spotted and reasons why they do not seem as appealing as NZD/JPY:

 

  1. CAD/JPY BEOB weekly/daily - It appears that shorting this pair would risk a bounce off of PPZ near 80.0.
  2. EUR/JPY BEOB weekly/daily - Not as much space as NZD/JPY. A little bit too close to PPZ near 132.00.
  3. EUR/CHF BUOB on daily - Too much traffic.
  4. AUD/JPY BEOB on weekly - Too close to a PPZ near 70.0?
  5. NZD/CAD pinbar on weekly - Maybe the low of this pinbar is not below the PPZ near .6900? Also, it appears to be too close to the recent swing low.
  6. GBP/CAD BUOB on weekly - Too much traffic.
  7. USD/CAD BUOB on daily - EDIT: Not at a swing low, in my opinion.
  8. USD/JPY BUOB on daily - Not at a swing high.
  9. CHF/JPY BEOB on weekly/daily - This is my second favorite setup. I would probably consider this tradeable if not for NZD/JPY. It has confluence with a 38.2 fib. Bounce off of a PPZs near 86.0. and 85.0. The first trouble spot I see for this one is near 84.00. This might require profit to be taken and SL moved to BE quickly, but I consider 84.0 to be a minor PPZ. It does not appear to have any divergence. Also, the R:R is not as appealing as what I see with NZD/JPY.

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  • #30,183
  • May 15, 2009 9:34pm May 15, 2009 9:34pm
Welcome to the thread, aLLerGic.

From one newbie to another, I would like to say that you have come to the right place to learn about forex trading. Many people here would recommend reading the whole thread. By doing that, you will find the answers to most of your questions. Yes, there are over 2000 pages of posts (I have not read the whole thread myself, but would like to someday.), but you are off to a good start after reading 150 pages. Post #1 is the most important of all posts and should be read over and over.

Maybe I am wrong, but if you are wondering if you have been lucky after making 200 pips/day, then you probably have been lucky. As us newbies learn the methods taught here, we should reach a point when we realize how to take trades with a high probability of success. At that point we would realize that it does not have that much to do with luck.

I believe that James16 has used 150, 200 and 365 EMAs applied to the close of the bar. These are only used for confluence, or another reason to take a trade (like a fibonacci level a round number, etc.). EMAs are by no means the reason to enter a trade, they are just one factor that increases your confidence and probability of success. The most important factor in taking a trade is the location of the bar (Is it at a strong PPZ level?) The next important factor, if I am not mistaken, is the size of the bar relative to the bars before it. (Others might disagree with this, but I am sure that almost everyone here considers the location to be the most important factor.)

One of the most important lessons taught here is to learn patience. This means that you should only trade the best pinbars, outside bars, etc. For newbies, it is recommended to only take about 3-5 trades per month. Learning to be picky is the best way to succeed using the methods taught here.

I am not one of the best people here to give advice, being a beginner myself, but my advice to you is to treat forex like a business. Trade on demo until you are successful for 3 months and try to read this thread every day. Do not be shy if you have questions, because there are many experienced traders here who are willing to help beginners like ourselves.

Good luck on your journey.

Quoting aLLerGic
Hello,

Im a newbie here, i have read this thread from page 1 until 150, im a slow learner, can anyone please help me?? now im currently in demo, 2 days straight win is not bad for me and ive got 200pip per day using this pin bar method. Now, my question is weather im lucky on that trade or correct in making decision. Anyone please tell me the MA setting?? 150 200 365 rite?? but what is the setting below this?? my mean is applied to what...
  • #30,184
  • May 15, 2009 9:42pm May 15, 2009 9:42pm
Hi guys thanks for the reply and the welcome.

As for the currency quote EUR/USDm, the "m" stands for mini account. I'm using IBFx demo.

Man the thread moves really fast
  • #30,185
  • May 16, 2009 1:01am May 16, 2009 1:01am
Ok- I am so happy - I have found a way to never lose at Forex!
Never buy or sell anything!

Ok- that being said- I think the next best thing I have learned is to pull back to the daily and weekly time frames-

My indicators seem to work but the lower the time frame the less frequently they work- This is of course because they all have to line up on the longer time frames or there is too much battling of various cycles going on-
-Eventually I will have that metered so I will know when the confluence happens I guess-

The daily and weekly is so much less stressful-

On to the 3 months of demo at that level of TF-

Thanks for the suggestion James16-
  • #30,186
  • May 16, 2009 1:16am May 16, 2009 1:16am
Quoting raczekfx
Read your statement again and again..... and again.

Then ask yourself one question: Why am I trading, is it for adrenaline rush or because I want to be a successful business owner?

If you had $500,000 on your plate would you leave your house thinking...'G.. I think, i'm gonna get stopped out'... and do nothing..

If you don't stop treating trading like a video game, might as well donate your money to some good charity org. now...
Trading on 1hr, eh....

p.s.
I also shorted fiber (aussie and...
1. If I had $ 500,000 on my plate for trading purposes, that means I would have at least 25 times that much as my income. If that were so, I quite possibly would not be trading at all. Rather I would be managing the charitable foundation I had set up.
2. Having said #1 , some of us still must work 9 to 5 and more. And cannot access charts, possibly not even see any during the day. What constructive suggestions would you have for those who need to 'set and step away' ? I could have said set and forget, but that is hardly the case.
  • #30,187
  • May 16, 2009 1:19am May 16, 2009 1:19am
Oanda on a mobile device?
That way you can take the trade with you?
  • #30,188
  • May 16, 2009 1:46am May 16, 2009 1:46am
Thanks bidie,

I will have to check that out.
  • #30,189
  • May 16, 2009 2:08am May 16, 2009 2:08am
The high level of people ready to help each other on this forum is quite heart warming for sure- most forex forums in fact-

-Once I turn all that I have learned into real hard cash i think I will become verklempt or something-

Until then I shall hold on to my junior gold exploration companies and ride the gold bull that seems inevitable-
  • #30,190
  • Edited 7:27am May 16, 2009 5:00am | Edited 7:27am
Good morning to all James16 followers!

I was doing my daily and weekly analysis and i noticed this setup. I like it, we've confluence og triple top with divergence and 61.8 Fibo ret; in addition to these elements, looking at the 2-day chart, we've 2 consecutive pin bars.
Look at the charts below! In my opinion first TP could be at about 0.8685; if broken hard free ride to 0.85.
I personally appreciate this setup, but i'm already short on AudUsd (with the Daily Beob), so i don't know what to do. What's your view regarding this???

EurChf: I think there is "someone" who doesn't want a weak CHF and is building a brick wall at 1.50-1.51...Look at the chart below with that Buob and at this link http://http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=169265
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  • #30,191
  • May 16, 2009 6:58am May 16, 2009 6:58am
Quoting bakko85
...
I personally appreciate this setup, but i'm already short on AudUsd (with the Daily Beob), so i don't know what to do. What's your view regarding this???
A lot of people have been talking about the daily beob on AUDUSD and are in it but it's not expected to run far.

Re AUDCAD I can't see any great PA - pin bars are usually much larger than the surrounding bars.
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #30,192
  • May 16, 2009 8:04am May 16, 2009 8:04am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
no worries, g_j_hook, to be frank, neither of us trade h&s, do we? coz it's too late to get into an entry after the fact becomes obvious, that's the reason why we are so dedicated to jim16 here. keep up the good work



Quoting g_j_hook@yah
it seems you are correct,my mistake was believe that an upward lower TL was nesesary but it seems that it is only the most probable senario for price to react as expected. cheers.
jon
  • #30,193
  • May 16, 2009 8:09am May 16, 2009 8:09am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
jarroo, I am 100pips in the money. thanks for the encourage.

Quoting jarroo
Yeah krue. How's that BEOB Aud/Usd trade coming along? With your entries, it should be looking pretty good.
  • #30,194
  • May 16, 2009 8:48am May 16, 2009 8:48am
Was looking long time for good PA and S/R strategy thread, and I find this one with over 2000 pages....wooow, that must be it I said . I'm at page 12now, so excuse me, if asking questions that has been answered already. I trade daily within channel, which lines usually represente strong S or R.

My question is: Could be pattern circled, treated as DBHLC, regardles channel line is not horizontal like Pivot or Fib??

Thanks all contributors, and James for the thread.

Regards
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  • #30,195
  • Edited 9:39am May 16, 2009 9:09am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting bundyraider
That'll happen many many more times. lol

hey Jon
I don't even have an EA as Moneybags mentions. It'd be a smart move, but doesn't help with orders on other brokers.

Other options are...

1. Split your order into two or three or whatever separates every time you enter. Allows you to set a TP on your first part. I know exactly where the first trouble spot will be everytime and if I'm going to be away...

I dont use ea's either.

I do something similar to Bundy. If its a longer term looking trade I will split the position with different tp's & sometimes entries.

If Its a short term trade or if I have to run out unexpectedly I will set the first & tightest tp on the whole position with the original sl & forget about it till i get back...
I have quite a few where i'm in a trade & need to go to bed so i set the tp & when I get up the trade is done.. I love making money while i'm asleep..

the main point is. work out a plan that your comfortable with to deal with these situations. It will give peace of mind & help with your confidence level as you have taken control of what you can & not left things to chance or luck. You will start to feel like a trader. at least thats what I noticed when I started doing those type of things..
  • #30,196
  • Edited 9:15am May 16, 2009 9:12am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting bakko85
Good morning to all James16 followers!

I was doing my daily and weekly analysis and i noticed this setup. I like it, we've confluence og triple top with divergence and 61.8 Fibo ret; in addition to these elements, looking at the 2-day chart, we've 2 consecutive pin bars.
Look at the charts below! In my opinion first TP could be at about 0.8685; if broken hard free ride to 0.85.
I personally appreciate this setup, but i'm already short on AudUsd (with the Daily Beob), so i don't know what to do. What's your view regarding this???

EurChf: I think...
Dear Bakko,
I do not have any trade in aud/cad now, I think that this pair is at the breaking point as shown on the weekly over the important round nr pivot,
over fibo 61%, so it looks like trend reversal to up, but still below ema 150 and 365, we can see also rather an indecision bar,
on daily the price has gone above 365 ema, but also I can see div,
but the key I think there is on h4 - I mean the channel,
so even if it goes down some pips I would watch PA at the lower TL ?

Peter
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Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #30,197
  • Edited 12:45pm May 16, 2009 12:25pm | Edited 12:45pm
Bakko,

I did not notice this setup when I was scanning the charts yesterday. I believe this one might fall in the A category. Personally, the sizes of the pinbars look large enough compared to the previous bars, but that appears to be the only possible weakness of the setup that I can see (as pointed out by hipcio). The diagonal trendline drawn by hipcio may be another area to watch out for. The PPZs I have drawn do not look the same as hipcio (still trying to practice to improve my ability to draw these), and I do not see the area immediately below entry as a trouble area, but I could be wrong. I am seeing weakness in AUD against many of the major currencies. I wonder if such weakness can be seen in the AUD index.

One thing that I like about this setup if that the low of the most recent 2-day pinbar is below .8800. This appears to be under a nice strong PPZ in my opinion. Personally, I see the region near .8700 as the first possible "trouble area" on the chart. A break below this level makes .8500 seem like a likely target to me. You may have already noticed, but I think I see bearish divergence on the daily chart. Also, I drew a fib on the monthly chart from the high in Feb 2004 to the low in Oct 2008. The 50% level of this fib conincides with the PPZ of your setup, so I think you can add one more fib to your list of confluences.

I currently do not know how to make a 4-day chart, but I wonder how this setup would look as a possible 4-day pinbar.

Have you seen my post about the NZD/JPY? I think this one would be in the same A category as your setup. Would you agree?

Like yourself, I am in the AUD/USD trade and am unsure about whether to open another position. I suppose the answer to such a dilema has to do with how aggressively we trade. Right now I am thinking that it's better to stay out when in doubt. Other setups like this will come along soon enough. I am also curious to see what others have to say about this.

Quoting bakko85
Good morning to all James16 followers!

I was doing my daily and weekly analysis and i noticed this setup. I like it, we've confluence og triple top with divergence and 61.8 Fibo ret; in addition to these elements, looking at the 2-day chart, we've 2 consecutive pin bars.
Look at the charts below! In my opinion first TP could be at about 0.8685; if broken hard free ride to 0.85.
I personally appreciate this setup, but i'm already short on AudUsd (with the Daily Beob), so i don't know what to do. What's your view regarding this???

EurChf: I think...
Attached Images
  • #30,198
  • May 16, 2009 1:29pm May 16, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting PipGator
Bakko,

I did not notice this setup when I was scanning the charts yesterday. I believe this one might fall in the A category. Personally, the sizes of the pinbars look large enough compared to the previous bars, but that appears to be the only possible weakness of the setup that I can see (as pointed out by hipcio). The PPZs I have drawn do not look the same as hipcio (still trying to practice to improve my ability to draw these), and I do not see the area immediately below entry as a trouble area, but I could be wrong. I am seeing weakness in...
Hi Pipgator,
I read about your NZDJPY setup, and found it very interesting. Sincerly, i don't know what to do, because i went short on nzdjpy with the beob on Monday, and exited few days later (damn, too early ). So i think i will wait (if it will appear) a nice setup on the 4h to confirm this short.
Just my 2cents!
  • #30,199
  • May 16, 2009 3:17pm May 16, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting Lou
1. If I had $ 500,000 on my plate for trading purposes, that means I would have at least 25 times that much as my income. If that were so, I quite possibly would not be trading at all. Rather I would be managing the charitable foundation I had set up.
2. Having said #1 , some of us still must work 9 to 5 and more. And cannot access charts, possibly not even see any during the day. What constructive suggestions would you have for those who need to 'set and step away' ? I could have said set and forget, but that is hardly the case.
Re:1
Perhaps my bad, I really meant controlling $500k (not having 500k account), which is about 5std lots… I bet you would be trading, but you’d be waiting for a setup like we had on Cad on Nov 11.07, since you would not have the urge/need to trade every day/week...

Re:2.
A) trading only the best probability setups with reduced risk to about .05%. They don’t come often, but they do from time to time and it’s hard to lose money if they’re also supported by confluence and some fundies.

B) If you work during Euro session, I’d spend a couple days a week trading US or Asia session. It’s hard to trade and work 9to5 at the same time, but it’s possible with some sacrifices..

C) Trading off of daily only with .05% risk. Even if you work full time, you should be able to do quick chart scan at the end of a day and make your trading decision. With some analysis/homework on the weekends, It used to take me about 15min to check charts at 6PM est and decide: trade it or leave it

I understand your point about having 9 to 5 job and not being able to watch the charts. I'm at the liberty of watching markets whenever I want (wife permitting), and i don't leave my trading desk until stops are at
BE (most of the time, especially true for larger positions). It was much harder when I had to work 9 to 5.
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  • #30,200
  • May 16, 2009 4:14pm May 16, 2009 4:14pm
Raczekfx why would you risk just 0.05% if there is the best probability setup. You get 3 or 4 such a setups per month so even if they all are winners and your RRR would be 2/1, you would make just 0.4 % per month or 4.8% per year.
Regarding point B , would you recommend to trade H4 or H1 charts?
Obviously , one would find much faster if system works or it does not , then on the weekly.
Thank you
alter
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