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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,081
  • May 15, 2009 11:54am May 15, 2009 11:54am
Quoting 30XTCi
Hi strat, and team.
Just finished reading the thread, it's longer than I first thought, but well worth every minute. Some great synergy working here.
Hope you have room for one more learner.

Roy
welcome 30XTCi.....where are you in the cycle?tells us your story........g
  • #3,082
  • May 15, 2009 3:37pm May 15, 2009 3:37pm
Volume on forex should be ignored. Metatrader volume is derived from the broker which it is from (which is totally useless); some people use esignal which has 300 brokers although this is still less than a fraction of the market (i heard estimates of less than 10%).

Would you trade an indicator if you only had 10% sight? It's like looking at candle's but only seeing every 10th one printed.

Just something to think about. This is completely my opinion and I don't want to start an argument.
  • #3,083
  • May 15, 2009 4:30pm May 15, 2009 4:30pm
[quote=strat;2735519][quote=golfer27;2735275]

You are NOT disagreeing with me and instead are agreeing with me 100%. In a previous post I said demo does not work for me - I have to put money on the line to see how my emotions react.

My mistake Sir,
I've trawled back through the thread, and absolututely, we are in a 100% agreement on demo vs live.
Sincere apologies.
Off to NZ, so catch up in a few weeks.

Regards
  • #3,084
  • May 15, 2009 9:38pm May 15, 2009 9:38pm
Quoting KillPhil08
Volume on forex should be ignored. Metatrader volume is derived from the broker which it is from (which is totally useless); some people use esignal which has 300 brokers although this is still less than a fraction of the market (i heard estimates of less than 10%).

Would you trade an indicator if you only had 10% sight? It's like looking at candle's but only seeing every 10th one printed.

Just something to think about. This is completely my opinion and I don't want to start an argument.
You obviously didn't read MY post way back where I explained ALL this and further said don't anyone waste their time telling me what YOU think because I don't give a rat's ass!

If you are going to post on here then I suggest you read the whole thread first BEFORE jumping in half baked!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,085
  • Edited 10:00pm May 15, 2009 9:55pm | Edited 10:00pm
Evening Team Strat,

Feedback would be appreciated on this one.

Analysis:
Big Boss - Triangle has formed. Price is at the lower trendline of the triangle and at major support. The recent downtrend has retraced to the 61.8% fib of the Dec 2008 to March 2009 Uptrend.
Boss - Same story as Big Boss.
Daily - Hammer formed and closed at major support (111.00). Price has moved significantly away from the 20 MA. Hammer dipped below support and came back to close above it and it also hit the bottom of the triangle.

The Plan (already in motion):
Buy 2 mini lots above top of hammer (111.00+).
Set initial stop below hammer (109.70)
Take profit on one contract @ 50 pips (Cuts my risk and secures some profit).
Move stop on #2 to break even if first resistance level is encountered (around 112.20-40)

Total risk on this one is about 2.5%.

I was filled on the trade Wednesday evening. Gave me a bit of a scare on Thursday and early today as price dropped back down to support at about 110.30. Price then took off and my first contract was closed. I don't have access to my trading platform while at work, so I could not set my stop to BE on contract #2. It hit my first target today. So, I have to wait until Sunday night to do that.

So far this has been more of a realistic psycho test for me as price went against me before going for me. Didn't doubt the plan, just waited to see what happened. Now I am in management mode, watching what happens on the daily close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-bigboss-05-15-2009.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-boss-05-15-2009.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-worker-05-15-2009.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,086
  • May 16, 2009 1:15am May 16, 2009 1:15am
[quote=golfer27;2738027][quote=strat;2735519]
Quoting golfer27

You are NOT disagreeing with me and instead are agreeing with me 100%. In a previous post I said demo does not work for me - I have to put money on the line to see how my emotions react.

My mistake Sir,
I've trawled back through the thread, and absolututely, we are in a 100% agreement on demo vs live.
Sincere apologies.
Off to NZ, so catch up in a few weeks.

Regards
dont send apologies to that rock n roller......look forward to your stories..........g
  • #3,087
  • Edited 1:34am May 16, 2009 1:20am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting One14
Evening Team Strat,

Feedback would be appreciated on this one.

Analysis:
Big Boss - Triangle has formed. Price is at the lower trendline of the triangle and at major support. The recent downtrend has retraced to the 61.8% fib of the Dec 2008 to March 2009 Uptrend.
Boss - Same story as Big Boss.
Daily - Hammer formed and closed at major support (111.00). Price has moved significantly away from the 20 MA. Hammer dipped below support and came back to close above it and it also hit the bottom of the triangle.

The Plan (already in motion):
Buy...
your in now.....stay strong..... stick to your plan......may the force be with you!!!!
  • #3,088
  • May 16, 2009 1:32am May 16, 2009 1:32am
i cant comment on your analysis....as you know im a naked bar chart man(strat will)

i trust your in demo? if not send me your money!

Now stick to the plan 100% and after you can go over it....

nice one,one14
  • #3,089
  • May 16, 2009 1:44am May 16, 2009 1:44am
I see two that really jump out at me. The first is EUR/CHF, which today busted out of the massive triangle it has been confined to for 2 months. The second is EUR/AUD, sporting a nice shooting star into the 1.8000 psycho S/R, the 20, and a 50% fib retrace.

Let's go a tad bit more in depth and add some charts...

EUR/CHF

We have a break of the most recent upper trendline on the daily and weekly, with a strong close above the 20 and BOSS 20. Notice how this bar also closed over the 38.2% retrace of the massive upward move 2 months ago, which has acted as support and even resistance multiple times previous. It has also closed above the 1.5080 S/R. Keep in mind the 50 and some strong S/R at 1.5160 sit just above any possible entries.

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/9056/eurchfg.gif


EUR/AUD

As stated above, Thursday's bar showed a nice Shooting Star up into the 1.8000 psycho S/R and the 20, as well as the 50% fib. Today's bar consolidated a little, but still broke the low of the SS by 14 pips, enough to get any entry order triggered. This means some people are in the trade already, waiting for the move to happen. The trend is down, and it carries strong momentum, leaving me with a good feeling about this one. I will try for a cheaper entry on Sunday.

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/9817/euraud.gif
Bang.
  • #3,090
  • May 16, 2009 3:04am May 16, 2009 3:04am
Quoting Baba G
welcome 30XTCi.....where are you in the cycle?tells us your story........g
Baba G, thanks for the welcome.
I'm not really sure where I am at the moment,other than being on a learning curve that never seems to want to end. Lucky for me i have an insatiable appetite for it.

My first year was taken up learning the basics, with Demo and real account running side by side. Demo up live down small.I found myself, towards the end of the year drawn into wanting to look inside the OHLC data, to try and find something inside the data that just could not be seen on the charts.

The second year consumed me with experimental trials with the data obtained, to the point where I became aware of the waves within waves, that make the markets move the way they do. Slowly the pieces fell into place. This is still ongoing and every month I become aware of more ways to incorparate what I've learnt into my trading.

My third year was really frustrating, up one minute and eating humble pie the next. Every time I traded my new found method it worked perfectly (on Demo). Every time I put my money where my mouth was, the Queen chopped off my head. I know, I know (NOW) fear and greed, no real faith in it, no real plan etc,need I go on. My method worked but I didn't.

Formulate a plan and stick to it.

I went 14 for 14 trades. Took a live account up 600% with compounding and agressive MM. THIS IS IT! the HG. After all this time I've cracked it!!

The next trade, because of a miscalculation on my part, blew the account!!

I realised later I had missed trade No 15 and jumped to the 16th trade in a sequence. I ran out of money 20 pips from the top of the spike on Eur/Usd on 18th Dec 2008. Yum Yum Humble Pie.

(I think I'm about here).

Forth year, Learn Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading, rinse and repeat ad infinitum.


Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #3,091
  • May 16, 2009 4:44am May 16, 2009 4:44am
Quoting One14
Evening Team Strat,

Feedback would be appreciated on this one.......
I haven't got much in the way of constructive feedback, but certainly a comment.

Thanks for your account of the analysis and subsequent trade on USDCHF. It is good to read details from the initial analysis at the start, through the trading plan to the trade in progress. I hope you will post again to update us on the finish. I learnt a lot from reading it.

Now you are in the trade from about 1.1100 are you bothered about 20MA being above you at 1.12689 (on my feed) and also the SR at 1.1300? You also have the 50MA and Boss 20 above - on my chart anyway.

Are you hoping the rise will break through those? I notice that you will take some profits when/if you get to the SR. Do you feel the R:R was enough for the trade? Presumably you did or you wouldn't have entered it.

As I said at the start, not much in the way of constructive feedback but mainly just thanks! Please post again with the endgame.
  • #3,092
  • May 16, 2009 6:13am May 16, 2009 6:13am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Thanks for your account of the analysis and subsequent trade on USDCHF. It is good to read details from the initial analysis at the start, through the trading plan to the trade in progress. I hope you will post again to update us on the finish. I learnt a lot from reading it.

Now you are in the trade from about 1.1100 are you bothered about 20MA being above you at 1.12689 (on my feed) and also the SR at 1.1300? You also have the 50MA and Boss 20 above - on my chart anyway.

Are you hoping the rise will break through those? I notice that you will...
I took the USDCHF long trade too (for the second time this week , chart will tell you why) and it gave me the same scares!

If you have momentum and price action on your side then you must not be put off trading into the 20ema. SR levels and price action will always win. The moving average is a guide ...
When the price gets to a moving average it might well cause your trade to wobble when it hits it but it should not keep you out of a good set up.

When the price is a long way from the moving average then the "elastic band" effect is a good supporting factor for your trade, it will pull the price back towards it.

Thanks to my friend James I recently learned how to trade those big long Marabuzo candles. USDCHF has retraced and is sitting at exactly 50% of last weeks one and so the direction from here is key. It has not just bounced off the 20ema but last weeks lows which could mean support has become resistance.
I would take some profit off and see where we go from here, the weekly is short term bearish, although the daily says the trend may be changing, the Boss may win.

Nicola
  • #3,093
  • May 16, 2009 7:12am May 16, 2009 7:12am
Quoting strat
You obviously didn't read MY post way back where I explained ALL this and further...
I don't think anybody who actually trades has the time to go through this properly, I have read your site and that should be enough, after all there is a lot of waffle and chit chat in this thread.


Quoting strat
said don't anyone waste their time telling me what YOU think because I don't give a rat's ass!
You obviously didn't read the rules, I suggest you read them or post constructive cristism to my posts in future;

"Rule #1: Respect Thy Fellow Trader
As a Forex Factory member, you are expected to treat others with respect and kindness. Mean-spiritedness, fighting, racism, offensive comments, and slander are all subject to removal. Healthy debate is welcome."

Quoting strat
If you are going to post on here then I suggest you read the whole thread first BEFORE jumping in half baked!
For everyone who doesn't have the time I dug it up for you (see I'm being constructive...)

Quote
"For volume, I use the standard MT4 volume indicator. Volume in Forex opens up a can of worms. Since there is no central exchange as in stocks we get a sampling of volume through our brokers. This brings us to two schools of thought - 1) Forex volume is useless and unreliable and 2) Volume can be used as PART of a trading method.

Think about elections - there are always sampling polls taking a small percentage of the population BUT they have been proven to be somewhere in the region of 90% to 95% accurate. To me, and it's my opinion only, Forex......
You are entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine. I was talking to the poster not you. Please don't get so uptight.

Take care strat.
  • #3,094
  • May 16, 2009 7:34am May 16, 2009 7:34am
Quoting elitejets
I took the USDCHF long trade too (for the second time this week , chart will tell you why) and it gave me the same scares!

If you have momentum and price action on your side then you must not be put off trading into the 20ema. SR levels and price action will always win. The moving average is a guide ...
When the price gets to a moving average it might well cause your trade to wobble when it hits it but it should not keep you out of a good set up.

When the price is a long way from the moving average then the "elastic band" effect is...
Thanks Nicola. That's what I was thinking. Well except for the Mara...mama bar you mentioned. Not to lose focus, but we are more than 50% into that bar (on my data).

Lotus...
One other thing I didn't put on my Daily chart is a trendline of the recent downtrend. Go back and have a look...you'll see that we closed right on that trend line and the 20, so it is a concern. We will see what price action brings.
Once I get my stop in Sunday, I walk away with a profit no matter what. As Baba G mentioned, I am sticking to the plan.
  • #3,095
  • May 16, 2009 7:50am May 16, 2009 7:50am
Quoting KillPhil08
I don't think anybody who actually trades has the time to go through this properly, I have read your site and that should be enough, after all there is a lot of waffle and chit chat in this thread.




You obviously didn't read the rules, I suggest you read them or post constructive cristism to my posts in future;

"[i]Rule #1: Respect Thy Fellow Trader
As a Forex Factory member, you are expected to treat others with respect and kindness. Mean-spiritedness, fighting, racism, offensive comments, and slander are all subject to removal....
Hey killphill,baba here......your opinions are more than welcome on our thread....Strat can be a little grumpy sometimes we have all felt the lash of his whip.....its just cause he cares so much about peoples losses.He really is dedicating so much NRG to get people off the boom and bust cycle.Speaking of cycle, where are you in yours?
Your looking on a daily bar thread so what is it your looking for?....let me know if i can help.......g


p.s. like i said to one14 i only trade naked ohlc bars....nothing else,no indis,trendlines,fibs nothing.... so i cant help on the whole volume thing or even candle formations ect....but if your into naked PASR i can share what i know.....g
  • #3,096
  • May 16, 2009 8:00am May 16, 2009 8:00am
Hi Team

Just saw on the calandar page on FF a reference to the SNB buying Usd & Eur so that they don't get deflation. Key area EurChf they have stated is 1.5000..and has been suggested that they will take action to stop it falling below this level...

http://www.reuters.com/article/compa...47461420090515

one to keep an eye on..Nicole
  • #3,097
  • May 16, 2009 8:03am May 16, 2009 8:03am
All these "blackswans" that are so common now that its almost a "situation normal" i have started to treat them like NFPS.....stay away.....just my take anyway...thnx hun....g
  • #3,098
  • May 16, 2009 8:22am May 16, 2009 8:22am
Cool Baba G... I know we trade just PASR, just thought it was interesting as some of the previous posts had been discussing Eurchf trades, but for me when looking at that chart, it's just going sideways with no real PA...apart from the higher close yesterday..

Just my 2 cents worth...
  • #3,099
  • May 16, 2009 8:26am May 16, 2009 8:26am
Is anyone into naked bars and nothing else?


maybe im the only one......oh well its only ever my own tickets i fill in....

anyway 2 trades last month...4.2%........that may be a bit boring just 2 trades but for excitement i dont look to FX for that,i like my trading very very boring......In the words of yoda
"Action,adventure a Jedi craves not these things"...anyway enough chit chat and waffle.......Q.E.D as always.....g(here to serve)
  • #3,100
  • May 16, 2009 8:27am May 16, 2009 8:27am
Quoting FxPippy
Cool Baba G... I know we trade just PASR, just thought it was interesting as some of the previous posts had been discussing Eurchf trades, but for me when looking at that chart, it's just going sideways with no real PA...apart from the higher close yesterday..

Just my 2 cents worth...
never stop posting...i like your 2 cents
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