Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

I'm also watching GBPUSD, USDJPY and EURJPY. These move a little more steady, and can confirm the direction of the GBPJPY, since thay are related pairs. Making a run down now.

Candle looks like a jackhammer, trying to bust through 144.50! I love it! LOL

If you look at those other pairs. They are stuck at key support areas formed at the psychological ("psyche") levels. They are poking through, but not staying below.... news in 4 minutes.

GBPUSD Daily Pivot 1.5180
EURJPY 129.00
USDJPY 95.00
GBPJPY 144.50

Moving my stop to 144.84 to guarantee 110 pips, before the news.

EUR Flash GDP was a little worse than expected. If this move doesn't sustain the down move, I think profit taking will cause a retracement. May close my position if it looks like it will.

The other pairs are retracing fast, while the GBPJPY lagged behind a bit. I closed the second half of my trade with 150 pips, and 110 on my first. I'm thirsty, and with the PA as it was, I didn't want to get up from the computer! LOL!

...........after I typed that, they stopped retracing. That's Forex! 150 pips is a 150 pips! I'm happy with that, and can't cry about what could have been! Even though I probably will.

Yes FxDad you're right I did mean GBP/JPY!

Appreciate the comments!

Your Welcome Links!

So, before I closed my trade, my target T/P was 143.50..... lets see if it makes it. It's almost there... then I can cry over it. Hahaha

One thing that always puzzles me is knowing which way it will go!

Looking at the 1hr chart this morning I can see that the previous uptrend stopped with more or less a double top at 146.45 because of 2 things it seems to me..... It hit the downtrend line dating back to May 8th and also the low of the 5 & 6pm candles (London Time) of May 12th.

Now with the London Opening it's going to go one of 2 ways up or down, but which one! Will it break through the trend line and go up or bounce and go down.

How do you read these things FxD? I have both Stochastics and MacD on my chart and they both looking high tending to south. Do you use an indicator like those or is it experience and gut feeling? Or do you look for a particular shape of candle?

Links, I will be right back to answer your question...... give me a few minutes.

I think it is getting ready to possibly bottom out for today. It could start ranging between 143.33 and any of the orange S/R lines above 144.50. 143.00 will be the next level to the downside to watch for support. I might take a small buy at or near 143.33, but I caution doing this because of all the news coming out of NY in the next few hours. (check the calendar for times on the FXFactory home page.) Would put my stop at 142.90. More than likely will walk with my pips from earlier and call it a day.

Links,

It is 50/50 at best trying to predict the direction of a move. Some guys like to squeeze every pip they can out of a move, and want in on it before it happens. I know some traders can do it with success. Tatton is very good at it with the GBPJPY. I've tried many different methods and indicators, and found them to just add more to an already full plate of things to watch. Stochastics, MacD, RSI, volume, can give you an idea, but I found them to be tedious at best, so I've done away with them.

The market is like a living, breathing, biological organism. After you have studied it a while, you kind of get a feel for it's behavior. So yes, I think experience has a lot to do with it. But, my style of trading isn't to predict the move before it happens. My style is to decide when it happens. Patience, and the ability to not sweat about capturing the first few pips of a move. My temperment is better suited to know that move has happened, and enter the move with more confidence that it will go my way. I am more comfortable entering a trade, when I'm pretty damn sure it will continue in a certain direction, rather than hoping it will go in a certain direction.

This is why I look at a chart, look for patterns of movement. Then I draw out my trendlines lines, where I see them, as everyone has their own vision of where they are. Then I look for S/R levels, and the psyche levels. Then I watch for the patterns that develop, and then I wait for a break in the pattern, rather than try to predict before hand, when the pattern will break. I always have a good idea of when it will break, by the time of day in each trading region, watching all the lines and trends, and PA. But, I would rather wait for confirmation of the break before I enter a trade. I find that I have a lot less stop out for losses that way.

Rembember 80% or more of the FX markets volume, is money traded by the "big boys." Banks, governments, and the huge trading and hedge funds. They create the larger moves. The volume of money in which they trade, dictates where us little guys can profit. Stochastics, RSI etc, can all be thrown out the window when the big boys make a trade. When they move millions at a time, it moves the price. No matter what the indicators say. They primarily watch long term trends and Macroeconomic news. I rather follow the big moves they create and get a peice of it, rather than trying to get all of every move in the market.

Hope this sheds some light for you.

Looks like 143.62 wants to hold up as the bottom of the range. Could be some room for a nice move, but I am going to bed, while most of you, I know are just starting your day, or ending it. It is 04:04am my time. I really need to move to Europe..... If you decide to take any trades, just remember to tighen up stops when news events are about to break. USD news events start in 1:20. Hope you all learned something from my ramblings...... I know I learn more everyday too.

Take care, and trade safe!

Thanks for taking the trouble for your thoughtful post appreciate it. Yes it does help, I know I have a lot to learn yet!

I know it's late there, I have a daughter in the States, so good night have a great wkend watch for your insightful posts next week

Thanks again Links! I really enjoy doing this. It has become my new hobby without effecting my trading too much. Where's your daughter live? She going to University here, or just living life?

I definately live life on European time. I really enjoy being over there and the hours I can keep while trading. Have a good safe weekend everyone! See you Sunday/Monday. Cheers!

"Dad", I really love what you said about GJ making other pairs boring! I do think there is an "instinctual" aspect to trading and last night was a perfect example.

I get my cues from the 4hr chart and the descending channel was simply too convincing. Add to that the stall in the Asian at the 4hr 382 fib, the hints were there. I wish it was always this clear.

But what kills me with the GJ is the size of the consolidation times...just enough to fool ya!...

(Fib should be reversed to reflect above)

Like your chart Tulkas, and your trading method! I totally believe in keeping it simple, especially for the new traders. Bankers keep it pretty simple too.
You're right, this move was nice and clear. The downtrend is easy to see and the range/channel is near perfect. I think for the rest of the day, being Friday, it will move sideways and then the down trend will continue into next week with the next key area of support being 139.

As for the consolidation, you mean how long it takes a consolidation pattern to develop, or the actual times they develop? I like watching for consolidations just before Tokyo/Sydney open, and especially London.

OK, now I'm really going to bed! Goodnight/day everyone!

It started to range bounce after I went to sleep last night. I wish all moves could be this decisive and clear! The institutional portfolio managers like to clear short term trades before going into the weekend. I think there was some heavy profit taking, on these clear moves, by the "big boys." It takes huge volume to pust the pirce around like this, so clearly. All black candles going up, and all white bear candles going down. The market knew where it wanted to go and did not hesitate. Here's what I wrote to LinksMan about the "Big Boys."

"Rembember 80% or more of the FX markets volume, is money traded by the "big boys." Banks, governments, and the huge trading and hedge funds. They create the larger moves. The volume of money in which they trade, dictates where us little guys can profit. Stochastics, RSI etc, can all be thrown out the window when the big boys make a trade. When they move millions at a time, it moves the price. No matter what the indicators say. They primarily watch long term trends and Macroeconomic news. I rather follow the big moves they create and get a peice of it, rather than trying to get all of every move in the market."

It's the quality of trades made, not the quantity.

The trendlines are putting the squeeze on the PA for now. Watch for the direction of the break at week's open. One of the trends will break, either the blue or the red, so watch for a break, and watch for it to hold the break.

Hope you all have a great weekend. Get some rest Tatton.

Just expanded the view of the trendlines so you can see the whole move, and where it might be headed. The red line is a shorter term trend drawn on a 1H, so that is why it looks out of place, but on the 1H, it coinsides pretty well.