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Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

  • #1,141
  • May 14, 2009 3:05am May 14, 2009 3:05am
Thanks for the charts Tatton. Get well Buddy!

Well folks, another choppy day today. Not getting the movement in the ranges that I like to see. Consolidations are happening quick and the moves are small. I'm still kicking myself about that Cable trade earlier. I need to learn to be happy and take 20 pips. I was almost sure it wasn't going to make the break under 1.51, and I was right. I figured break even was fine, and I do that too often. If I'd take those 15-30 pip moves more often, I'd have banked a bunch more pips! Forex Traders, especially us that do it for a living, have to keep retooling our trade plans. The main thing is to swallow our pride and admit when we do dumb things! LOL!

Profit = profit = profit

Going into this next hour is when the London market starts to make larger moves. So watch close. No big news events today until NY. PPI and some other stuff coming out for the Dollar. EUR looks like it wants to break 1.36, and if it does, could make a 40-80 pip move.

GBPJPY hovering near the 144.50 area and not showing anything that grabs my attention. Won't have my interest until it wants to break 144 or 145.

  • #1,142
  • May 14, 2009 3:31am May 14, 2009 3:31am
I drew the range in for the CAD in between the red lines. See how for the past 9 hours, it is making a move from top to bottom? That's the PA I like to see when watching for a range break. Decisive swings, top to bottom. Almost wanted to make a break below, but may take another hour or 2 to develop when the CAD market opens, and volume will push it around. Very easliy could get pushed up and break the top range, but I think USD and JPY will see a little retacement from the moves seen yesterday.
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  • #1,143
  • May 14, 2009 4:00am May 14, 2009 4:00am
Hey All,

I'm not real interested in anything to stay awake. It is 01:55am my time. I do like the CAD range I talked about and also the ERUSD to break and possibly hold above 1.3612. Also a possible retracement on the GBPJPY to 146-146.30. Nothing I feel like staying awake for. I'm sure I will want to kick myself in the morning. LOL. We can't grab them all.

Have a good one, and I may check in after a few hours.

Ciao

PS>>>>> Desperate, thanks for the email and info! I wrote you back. Take care.
  • #1,144
  • May 14, 2009 4:03am May 14, 2009 4:03am
LOL! There goes the Euro!
  • #1,145
  • May 14, 2009 4:15am May 14, 2009 4:15am
The reason I mentioned it needed to push and hold above 1.3612 was that I see a lot of support and resistence on the orange line, back about 18-24 hours. Can you see it? It made the move up, but didn't hold support. That's what I'd like to see before entering a long.

Ok....... Nite!
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  • #1,146
  • May 14, 2009 7:20am May 14, 2009 7:20am
thanks for the work here fxdad good stuff, hope you guys caught the sell on gj when retest trendline, i left a pending order in and 100pips tp, good trade. wish i was still in that sell, tp too small.

ging to the doctor, wont be here much sorry. laters, good luck.
  • #1,147
  • May 14, 2009 6:30pm May 14, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting FX Dad
Hey All,

I'm not real interested in anything to stay awake. It is 01:55am my time. I do like the CAD range I talked about and also the ERUSD to break and possibly hold above 1.3612. Also a possible retracement on the GBPJPY to 146-146.30. Nothing I feel like staying awake for. I'm sure I will want to kick myself in the morning. LOL. We can't grab them all.
Retracement to the 146.30 area was hit, as I discussed in the London session. Now I'm watching for a continuation of the downtrend with a bounce off of 146.30. I will enter a sell if it falls below146, and if PA looks like it will stay below. I will place my stop just above 146.30, probably 146.40. There will probably be some support at 145/50 and at the Daily pivot of 145.33. IF fall continues past there, the will be resistence at the 145, and looks clear the 144.70-144.50. Another key to a move down is a break of the bottom red trendline (marked with the X). Bottom blue line is marking the bottom of the down trend's range.

Hope this helps.

I hope the Doctor was good to you today Tat! Take Care Buddy!
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  • #1,148
  • May 14, 2009 6:41pm May 14, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting FX Dad
The reason I mentioned it needed to push and hold above 1.3612 was that I see a lot of support and resistence on the orange line, back about 18-24 hours. Can you see it? It made the move up, but didn't hold support. That's what I'd like to see before entering a long.

Ok....... Nite!
Euro did make the retracement I was looking for, but it didn't develop until the NY session, after falling back to the bottom of the range at 1.3530. The resistence at the 1.3612 area proved stronger than I though, and had to take a bounce off the bottom and made a nice run, starting at the midday of London, and carrying through NY open. I watch the time of trade sessions in the Major markets to also make my decisions. Especially market open times, is when all the new volume floods the market and starts driving price action. If anyone wants, let me know and I can do the detailed chart of this move.
  • #1,149
  • May 14, 2009 9:05pm May 14, 2009 9:05pm
FXDad, I don't know about you, but I usually avoid the early Asian session all together. I start looking about 5:30GMT and try to ride the London open.

interested your thoughts...
TULKAS
  • #1,150
  • Edited 10:59pm May 14, 2009 10:33pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting Tulkas
FXDad, I don't know about you, but I usually avoid the early Asian session all together. I start looking about 5:30GMT and try to ride the London open.

interested your thoughts...
Tulkas,

I don't avoid it because it can make some moves, but they are shorter lived and not as profitable. The setup I talked about earlier broke, but only moved about 30 pips. Good scalp, but didn't set up to be an intraday trade which I look for, it is one I would have had to sit and watch to cash out any pips. If you look at the trend lines, they are still holding up. The market is moving sideways so they may need to be adjusted in the next hour to reflect the sideways move. It is starting to form a consolidation squeeze, and looks good so far.

London open is the best time to trade GBPJPY, and most of the major pairs. So I do agree with you. London is money time. I don't even bother with NY anymore. Too much news, and if you are techinical trading as we do here on this thread, it can be frustrating at times. Anytime Obama, the Fed or Treasury speaks, the market reacts, and it drives me nuts! I hate when any of them open their mouth! The world also watches what Wallstreet is doing, ie. the DOW. Way too many factors come into play. London is pretty straight forward, accept for a few major news announcements... so yes, LONDON is best!

I appreciate your post!
  • #1,151
  • May 15, 2009 1:22am May 15, 2009 1:22am
Hello everyone,

Sorry, I just now had the chance to get back to my desk and saw the move starting to happen. I took a short at 145.94, and have my stop at 146.26, but iwll probably move to B/E soon. Moved so quick I didn't have time to post anything. As I stated earlier, I adjusted the trendlines to show the sideways move (only about a 2hr adjustment). broke briefly and then when the the current 1H candle held below the trend and the 146 "psych" level, I entered a short. Bouncing off the daily pivot right now.

Still early as London is not open yet. European market is driving this one right now and hopefully will continue into London.
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  • #1,152
  • May 15, 2009 1:26am May 15, 2009 1:26am
If the down trend continues past the daily pivot of 145.30, it could continue to 143.50. London opens in 35 minutes. It will make a push, up or down, we'll have to see.
  • #1,153
  • May 15, 2009 1:35am May 15, 2009 1:35am
Just updated myself on the News Calendar. Bad German GDP data, showing worse than expected driving down the Euro and driving up the Dollar and Yen. Bad news = risk aversion, which drives eveyone to buy Dollars and Yen. Another potential move with French French NFP at 7:45GMT. Everyone expecting bad news there, so if it is worse than forcasted, will drive Yen and Dollar prices up. Just a minute before, I will move my stop to capture at least 20 pips profit (If it is still there), just in case it goes back up.

FYI: I broke one of my cardinal sins..... I entered a trade before knowing the News Calendar. I'm lucky this time, that it went my way, or else I probably would have been stopped out with a 50 pip loss!
  • #1,154
  • May 15, 2009 1:49am May 15, 2009 1:49am
Closed half my trade with 110 pips. Keeping the other half on to see what London will do, with my stop set at +30 pips.
  • #1,155
  • May 15, 2009 2:24am May 15, 2009 2:24am
More EUR news coming out for the next 2 hours, so today is a little more volitile than usual. CHF retail sales just came out, way better than forcasted, and that is why prices across the board have pulled back. EUR CPI and Italian GDP coming later too. None of it can be good, but if it is worse than forecasted, this trend should continue down.

I'm moving my stop down to just above the 145.30 daily pivot level, to guarantee I capture at least 50 pips on the second half of my trade.
  • #1,156
  • May 15, 2009 2:49am May 15, 2009 2:49am
This is from the move leading into the NY session I discussed yesterday. Someone asked for the detailed chart, so I figured I'd post it, just details the move and how it reacted to trend/range lines.

Chart will make more sense if you go back to post#1141, that is where I start to talk about the possible move.

(Des, I replied to your email
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  • #1,157
  • May 15, 2009 3:05am May 15, 2009 3:05am
This is the hour when London usually starts to get busy. Italian GDPq/q just came out considerably worse than expected. So may push down a little more. The next hour we have EUR Flash GDP, and it will have a little more importance than the Italian, alone. Price needs to get back below 145 and hold, for move to continue.
  • #1,158
  • May 15, 2009 3:06am May 15, 2009 3:06am
Quoting FX Dad
More EUR news coming out for the next 2 hours, so today is a little more volitile than usual. CHF retail sales just came out, way better than forcasted, and that is why prices across the board have pulled back. EUR CPI and Italian GDP coming later too. None of it can be good, but if it is worse than forecasted, this trend should continue down.

I'm moving my stop down to just above the 145.30 daily pivot level, to guarantee I capture at least 50 pips on the second half of my trade.
Hi Chuck

Been learning from your posts and made a few pips, thanks! Just a quick thought...do you only trade USD/JPY you don't bother with Cable or anything. Only wondered why, is it more predictable or suit your time zone?

Brian
  • #1,159
  • May 15, 2009 3:32am May 15, 2009 3:32am
Hey Brian!

I hope you meant to type GBPJPY? But if you traded the USDJPY, you'd be doing ok too! LOL! I watch the majors, and trade the best opportunities that I see. I post mostly about the GBPJPY, because that is what Tatton trades when he is actively on the thread... so basically I try to stick with that currency pair, as the main pair I post about. I will admit, which I posted in a previous post#1105. Most of what I learned in my earlier days with FX, most seasoned traders scoffed at the idea of trading the GBPJPY. "Too volitile" is what you would mostly hear. Since finding the thread and following Tatton's trades, I find find the other pairs, a tad bit boring. I like the big moves the GBPJPY makes. Lots of room for profit, but also loss too. You must be diligent at using and setting stops to minimize losses, and as Tat says, "Strict money management is key!" This is probably the most important rule of FX trading! Go back and check out that post #1105, as I think I explained a lot there, and I think I showed that layout of one of my monitors, on how I keep an eye on 8 pairs. Thanks for the questions! Keep em coming.
  • #1,160
  • May 15, 2009 3:40am May 15, 2009 3:40am
PA is all over the place! As I said this is usually a very active hour. I'm tempeted to clear my other half of the trade for another 110 pips, but if my stop at 145.40 can hold, I think the news at the top of the hour, may drive it down some more. I've got my T/P set ar 143.50. This kind of PA is where you learn to keep your nerves in check. What helps, is to keep your trades small, and it keeps your emotions out of it.
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