AUD/USD

I don't think that is the whole picture though. 8 years ago, Clinton was in office and had run a Federal budget surplus from 1998-2001. At the time of Bush’s first inauguration in 2001, the federal debt stood at $5,727,776,738,304.64.

Wikipedia state "As of May 1, 2009, the total U.S. federal debt was $11,208,076,192,300.55".

If you knew a company was that much in debt, would you invest in it? Until I see the US making a concerted effort to reduce the deficit I'll be thinking twice (or not at all) about any short AUD positions.

And Australia has China on it's shoulder anyway. I know where I'm going to put my money and it won't be in the US$. Any pullbacks and I'll be in with a grin. If AUD gets to 50 cents I'll be staking my house on it.

Thanks for your in put.

fxst

I'm short from 0.75. Targeting 0.71 and 0.68-0.69. SL above 0.775. The trade is based on daily and weekly charts, so it make take a while to complete.

7519 which is the close of the low bar, I will be putting my stop on this trade around here once I take profit.

you are welcome

In these two/three sessions I will be watching the 0,7550/70 and 0,7505 areas to cover my shorts and reverse to a long position.

Not sure it will go any lower before going up again

First off, there are plenty of companies heavily in debt with rather perky share price trends - the market looks at what they're doing with the debt and how good their chances are to get out of it.

I would not bet too intensely against USD until there is significant evidence of major U.S. debt holders reducing their bond positions. Think China, oddly enough. FWIW, the huge deficit runup you are mentioning had largely occurred prior to the changing of the guard in DC this year, and of course due to a huge trade imbalance, our Chinese friends have been only too happy to lend dollars back to their primary trading partner. It is not likely that this trend will fall off a cliff, as it is not in their best interest to abruptly dump the U.S. debt. Yuan's weakness is key to their economic growth.

Secondly, as you may remember AU nearly reached parity last year, on speculations and hopes of the crazy yield spread between the currencies to continue. That appeal is no longer there, and it is conceivable that RBA will cut rates some more.

Third, Aussie is heavily short-term overbought, just like the world's equity markets.

AUDUSD still neutral on the 0,765 level, and over the support at 0,7615

I still see some chances for a pullback in the area 0,746 - 0,75, that could be a chance for longs to buy at lower levels

in case of strenght, we should watch 0,7715 and go long above for 0,78 - 0,782

good trading!

We could bounce back and forth about this all day long. China doesn't have to dump their US holdings, just reduce their purchases of it. They would be better off spending the money internally to increase domestic demand rather than trying to keep the Yuan weak. They have already stated their concern about their US holdings.

Personally I think Helicopter Ben and Capitol Hill would prefer to have a weak dollar. The interest payments must be crippling as it is. Why not inflate themselves out of debt?

I don't recall the Reserve Bank intervening in the market when it was at 0.98 but I sure remember them intervening when it was at 0.63.

Thursday's market reaction to the ECB was interesting to say the least. Friday's blow out was outstanding. Until the fear factor returns, I'm going with the trend.

Divergence Patterns



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Stochastic Secret

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0.7690 is very likely to be broken targeting 0.7750-60 area.

I am short on AU at 7794 targeting 7500 area.........

already take 55 pips



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Stochastic Secret

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u mean .7704 ?

Yep and I have locked in 80 pips already

I have tried a long on the 0,7505 support but damn I missed it for 1 pip...

I see good chances for a rebound from these levels to 0,76 -761 and then the recent highs at 0,7714

cuurent price 0.7592

AUDUSD will up to around 0.7700

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forexinterval

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I see it going at least to 0.7860, am going long since 0.7558 and watching 4h candles closely but It looks up.

AUDUSD still strong with equities positive tone supporting again

pair now going to push the 0,76/0,7620 area with stoplosses above
buying the dips is what I still notice on AUD

therefore on the upside, watch the resistance at 0,7650/60 whose break would lead to the test of 0,7714 (would not be surprised to see it during US session today)

first support at 0,7530/40 should contain the downward pressure and could be a new chance to go long
back to test 0,75 and yesterday lows 0,748 in case equities would turn negative again

trade safe

AUD is simple tracking the USD weakness along with all other currencies, namely NZD and EURO.

Watch for kety data in the coming weaks. The current rally will taper back and the Aussie will be back under 70 cents

Watch the Yen closely. If the YEN/AUD drops below 70 - watch a bit of a free fall happen.

the fundamentals dont support a weak USD. Let's see how long the specualtors can play the game to keep it there. Interesting times again.

Closed my long, It did not go the way I thought it would. Now I wait and see how things go.