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  • #3,061
  • May 14, 2009 10:01pm May 14, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting rgrace
Hmm.....
What and where was the last price reversal bar?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,062
  • May 14, 2009 10:02pm May 14, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting One14
Would you be talking about the BUOB?
What and where is the last price reversal bar?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,063
  • May 14, 2009 10:09pm May 14, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting strat
What and where was the last price reversal bar?

It was a hammer near my support line, 1.7722. Should that concern me? I am planning on being at break even with part, and profit on the other part around that level.

It looks like a retrace, bouncing off the 20 MA and 50 fib line. Does the hammer make that null and void?
  • #3,064
  • May 14, 2009 10:11pm May 14, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting strat
What and where is the last price reversal bar?
Well...on my data we have a hammer on 5/07 and then a couple of IB, and then a bar that breaks the top of the hammer.

We are trading into that bar and possibly the hammer.
  • #3,065
  • May 14, 2009 10:16pm May 14, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting AminAS
I'm still short on EUR/GBP and its givin me the willies. I don't like that confluence at .8950. May the Queen have mercy on my soul.
Well, the good thing is it made a swing top.

Then it made a swing bottom

Then you have a FAILED BEEB

Then you have an unconfirmed swing top

Finally, you have an IB

Everything is FLAT

So, you are gambling on EUR to be weaker than GBP right?

Watch for it tomorrow to explode................

Do you remember why I didn't take the trade - you might want to re-visit that again Oliver!

(Another fine mess you've got me in said Stan Laurel to Oliver Hardy)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,066
  • May 14, 2009 10:20pm May 14, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting rgrace
It was a hammer near my support line, 1.7722. Should that concern me? I am planning on being at break even with part, and profit on the other part around that level.

It looks like a retrace, bouncing off the 20 MA and 50 fib line. Does the hammer make that null and void?
You need to go back in your data (I can't do it as I have no data) to see which support and resistance meant the most to this pair.

I would not trade a hammer and shooting star so close to each other.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,067
  • Edited 11:06pm May 14, 2009 10:34pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting strat
You need to go back in your data (I can't do it as I have no data) to see which support and resistance meant the most to this pair.

I would not trade a hammer and shooting star so close to each other.
Alright, this brings up an interesting question. How close would you consider too close? I know every trade is different, but are there any guidelines to go by on this. And, btw, I did see the hammer, but did not give it much thought,because of the confluence between S&R, 20 MA, and price action. The 1.7743 looks like a fairly strong support, was the high for quite a while, price bounced here 3 or 4 times. 1.8053 is a relatively recent SR area. Has consolidated once at it and reversed once at it.

So I guess the answer is staring me in the face. Take the order out, and wait for the next one.
  • #3,068
  • May 14, 2009 10:41pm May 14, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting strat
You need to go back in your data (I can't do it as I have no data) to see which support and resistance meant the most to this pair.

I would not trade a hammer and shooting star so close to each other.
that 1.7700-1.7800 area is a strong S/R going back to 2004
  • #3,069
  • May 15, 2009 12:12am May 15, 2009 12:12am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting strat
I don't have enough data (only to Feb 2009) on my chart so using yours:

Everything you say is good BUT you are missing the MOST IMPORTANT part.

Look at what you will be trading in to - please tell me you can see it.

Another view - look for longs

Big boss charts only, 1 is using the open/close price to set the fib's, 2 is using high/low of swing

either way at point A we had a DBLHC to set us of on the bull run, we then had at point's B hammers in support. Good bull run and then a massive fight for control at the top Bulls became exhausted and have taken a break - price has now retraced into the 50% fib retracement zone and the bull are back putting pressure on the situation, 1.77 held, a close above 1.80 would look to me like the bulls have taken control again.

daily hammer at the low is also in support of this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eaud oc.gif Size: 22 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eaud.gif Size: 22 KB


view to support both side = stay the hell out until june


'I'm so afraid' 'Don't be Cruel' I'm the 'new kid in town' i'll 'get over it', so is it just 'A trick of the tail' it may be 'over my head'.

ok ok enough of that, it just a variation on the view.
  • #3,070
  • May 15, 2009 1:28am May 15, 2009 1:28am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Swami S
Thanks Sid it was designed to help YOU. sorry if it upset anyone else.
no worries swami - i get it. sorry it got you into trouble.

Sid, TRADING IS SIMPLE. The psychology that goes with it is SIMPLE - USE A PLAN!

You are reading WAY TOO MUCH into this and making it FAR MORE COMPLICATED than it is. Give it a rest!

i am hearing you strat.
  • #3,071
  • Edited 2:20am May 15, 2009 2:05am | Edited 2:20am
I have two major support levels; 1.7700 and 1.7450. May 7th daily bar was a real hammer on my data with low at 1.7477 and close at 1.7707, once again proving how important those levels are.

The SR level at 1.8600 is very important and, even on big boss chart, I still believe trend is down (this can be argued for Big Boss chart, depends on how you evaluate it, this is just my opinion) after 1.8600 penetration. So, one could take long trade above May 7th hammer by taking trend direction into consideration (countertrend trade) and could target 1.8000 and 1.8600 respectively. 1.8000 was hit but MA20 didn't allow further up.

As a trade management, since it is a countertrend trade, you can immediately bring stop to BE after exiting some percentage of the trade size at 1.8000 and let the remaining run until 1.8600. There is a good chance of reaching the target if and only if MA20 is cleared.

Please do remember that every trade is different.
  • #3,072
  • May 15, 2009 2:58am May 15, 2009 2:58am
'There is a way around the minimum trade size. Anyone wanting to know can PM me.'

i Second Baba G....how can you do this...?
  • #3,073
  • May 15, 2009 4:05am May 15, 2009 4:05am
Hi Gang,
as soon as I dragged up my euraud chart I was horrified at what that SStar would be trading into. Yes, there is downward momentum but most importantly you'd be trading into a large hammer on 7 May that bounced off the 61% Fib level from the monthly swing low to high. Many deep retraces often fall back into the 50-61% Fib area and then resume back north.

The week previous also bounced off the ascending TL and the SR level at 17270 area.

Could be a trade for some with higher risk tolerance, but not for me!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 29 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,074
  • May 15, 2009 4:08am May 15, 2009 4:08am
Quoting FxPippy
'There is a way around the minimum trade size. Anyone wanting to know can PM me.'

i Second Baba G....how can you do this...?
There is a way, I've been doing it for a while but if we post it here then IG may get to know about it and then pull the ability - so if you need to know PM us -or look at your ticket as if you were gonna close the trade and you should be able to work it out from there
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,075
  • May 15, 2009 5:49am May 15, 2009 5:49am
Quoting strat
That's the nature of the beast that is GBPJPY. She has put in a double top and formed an almost perfect reverse head and shoulders.

Whether it's 700 pips, 7 pips or 7000 pips, the recommendation stays the same, watch what it does at the TL support and S&R support she is on right now.
Sorry but;
double top = resistance.
Inverted Head and Shoulders = support (speaking of which look at cable H&S).

What way are you saying it's going?

Do you mean the I-H&S formed in february?
  • #3,076
  • May 15, 2009 6:18am May 15, 2009 6:18am
Quoting golfer27
Tell more ?
Trust me , I'll have you short n curlies straightened in no time!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
To be honest ,the point of the post was not to give it the bigun, but to illustrate the difference between having no money on the line, and risking real money.
Remind me to tell you the tale about TAKESUM, it went down it the annals of history in the london mkt.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
I'm with Baba...tell us more.
  • #3,077
  • May 15, 2009 8:56am May 15, 2009 8:56am
What a great place this is when you get old boys like Golfer27 coming along to tell stories to us newbies.Im glad he feels comfortable enough here to share his pain.

I know there is alot of you still just reading the thread from the begining and thats good but i really want you all to share your good and bad stories about and around your trading.

Im gratful for Sid for bringing up the psch side and its a topic id like to discuss in more depth.

And im glad your all looking at the Right account to reflect your system of trade/ money management.

All these aspects are vital to the growing of a yeild curve.

Im working to create a fun and friendly thread here which deals with the nitty gritty but in a relaxed and stress free way.....id like to thank all who have participated in the last 24 hours for your stories and thoughts.....it means alot to me........g
  • #3,078
  • May 15, 2009 10:46am May 15, 2009 10:46am
Hi strat, and team.
Just finished reading the thread, it's longer than I first thought, but well worth every minute. Some great synergy working here.
Hope you have room for one more learner.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #3,079
  • May 15, 2009 11:03am May 15, 2009 11:03am
Quoting strat
...Do you remember why I didn't take the trade - you might want to re-visit that again Oliver!

(Another fine mess you've got me in said Stan Laurel to Oliver Hardy)
Ummm, noooooo... I think my gig was that I entered after that shooting star in the middle of the bar for a cheaper entry. The low hadn't been taken out yet. It was only like a 45 pip stop-

When you enter in the middle of a price bar...

1.) It is higher risk, because the PA hasn't actually been confirmed yet.

2.) Your risk/reward on any given trade improves dramatically.

PS - Didn't you say somewhere that entering in the middle of a bar was ok if you entered with a smaller percentage risk?

PSS - I just found it, you stay stayed out because of the BOSS. You said get out at any sign of reverse PA.
Bang.
  • #3,080
  • May 15, 2009 11:24am May 15, 2009 11:24am
I guess it is finally happening. EUR/CHF is breaking to the upside. With a solid close above BOSS 20 and the 20, I am a buyer. Close is in 5 hours.

Where is the volume?

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5107/eurchf.gif

Observe how Dr. Joe's theory is proven yet again with the long lower wick.

PS - I haven't really drawn S/R on this chart.
Bang.
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