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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,941
  • May 13, 2009 3:17am May 13, 2009 3:17am
Quote
Christopher,
I know you want practice, but analysing like this where there isn't a trade, will only encourage you to "LOOK" for trades instead of "SEEING" trades. So rather than post like this, wait until you "SEE" a valid trade set up and then comment on that. Make sense?
No, I'm not looking for trades at the moment as you were definite that I shouldn't be doing that. Trading forex at the moment has been put in the cupboard until I have done LOTS of practice. But I will only post charts that MIGHT lead to a trade in the near future from now on if that is preferred.

Quote

Well, well, well, Christopher – have you access to my charts? Who taught you to draw TLs like that which provide SO much information? First class job, old chap!
Thanks for that. Yes the insight into the way candles switch zones across the TL came from a specimen chart you posted a while back.

Quote
WORKER: All good except no mention of the support level at 146.80 although I see it on your chart. Also no mention of the fib level which price has retraced to. The confluence of the support level, the fib level and the 20 all provide very powerful support
Can't understand why I didn't mention that. As you say, it was there on my chart and I had gone through the implications in my head. I must make sure I put it ALL in the post.


Quote
Christopher - check that you have your MAs correct
Checked and found to be okay. 20EMA, 50SMA, 100EMA, 250SMA all set at close.

Thanks for your responses Strat. It is good to have a bit of positive feedback that suggests I might be improving. I'll go on working at it and posting otherwise I have no way of knowing that I am progressing - albeit slowly. When I read the posts of others they nearly always make complete sense, it is actually working through the processes myself on my own which is the tricky bit. It is only by posting that I can get feedback. It is MUCH cheaper than getting feedback from the market!!!!

All the best.
  • #2,942
  • Edited 5:42am May 13, 2009 5:30am | Edited 5:42am
Hi Strat
I drew the TLs using a line chart and then revert back to bar chart; I’ve posted both charts below.
I think it was Blackeagle who has this method in his tool box.
I’m just experimenting with them.

Thanks for all your time and dedication on this tread, getting a real feel for PA with your analyst.
I think (Know) having you guys as mentors builds confidence in going forward with this method and helps me enormously physiologically, I can tell the man in the mirror....I will wait for a good set up because I have the backing of the team and I know it’s right.

Cheers
Steve
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,943
  • May 13, 2009 6:52am May 13, 2009 6:52am
Quoting fountaintree
Hi Strart and fellow thread members,

Thanks for the clarification .

However, I am afraid the clarification raised more qns....

I draw your attention to post #720 which reference to the train analogue.
Combine with your reply to me at #2903. I formed the following conclusion:

A)This thread uses PASR selectively hopefully to have set up that give us an edge in catching the start (or at least near the start of the trend)...versus J16 which uses the same PASR to have set up base more on PA then trend.

B) Once the trend is identified,...
Nice research and you are basically correct in your assumptions IMO. Although we are going for the grail as that which as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts, bear in mind that the cart leads the horse and the basic PASR during consolidation is 70% of this business. You must be able to deal with pretty sideways markets because they do that most of the time. However as in that great tune pistoldave posted yesterday that 'one trend pays for em all.'

As for the retrace yes we wait whether we are riding intercity in the meanwhile or just waiting for the TGV. But the important point is to not let any other travel plans disrupt the journey to conssitant daily analysis.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,944
  • May 13, 2009 7:07am May 13, 2009 7:07am
Quoting cowboying
Hi Strat
I drew the TLs using a line chart and then revert back to bar chart; I’ve posted both charts below.
I think it was Blackeagle who has this method in his tool box.
I’m just experimenting with them.

Thanks for all your time and dedication on this tread, getting a real feel for PA with your analysis.
[font=Calibri][size=3]I think (Know) having you guys as mentors...
Steve, as long as the TL means something to you, then that is good, keep doing it.

For everyone:
We should only have "stuff" on our charts which help us in our PASR analysis and trading. So many people put stuff on without knowing why it's on there or what it does for them. Everything on a chart has to have a meaning and a purpose, if it doesn't, take it off so that you can see the candles more clearly.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,945
  • May 13, 2009 7:11am May 13, 2009 7:11am
Quoting cowboying
Hi Strat
I drew the TLs using a line chart and then revert back to bar chart; I’ve posted both charts below.
I think it was Blackeagle who has this method in his tool box.
I’m just experimenting with them.

Cheers
Steve
Yes, I do that to be able to see a more clear picture and when you do that, you'll see wicks are not that important when drawing TLs (though I use them in special cases, rarely). Btw, you may remove the upper TL since 4/20, 21 bars are not as significant as 4/28 bar, at least for me.
  • #2,946
  • May 13, 2009 7:13am May 13, 2009 7:13am
Strat,

The answer to changing the time in MT4 is no and yes.

No you can't. But yes there is a converter to change it as an indicator.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168562
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=249706

So you can arrange to have candles that start at the time you'd like.
  • #2,947
  • May 13, 2009 7:48am May 13, 2009 7:48am
i sense a ripple in the force..........call me at the studio.....you got my number still?
  • #2,948
  • Edited 10:45am May 13, 2009 7:53am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting Blackeagle
Yes, I do that to be able to see a more clear picture and when you do that, you'll see wicks are not that important when drawing TLs (though I use them in special cases, rarely). Btw, you may remove the upper TL since 4/20, 21 bars are not as significant as 4/28 bar, at least for me.
Hi Blackeagle
Thanks for the feedback.
Because the line is formed using the closed data of the period there’s no reason not to use it for a quick heads-up on S&R levels also.
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,949
  • May 13, 2009 10:25am May 13, 2009 10:25am
Looked back over some trading notes over the past few days and what I managed to glean from them is that I have some sort of psychological issue in that I have an inability to trade with the trend. What seems like a simple process for me is actually very hard.

My major flaw seems to be trying to 'out smart' the market and trying to pick tops and bottoms - not randomly as such, but using PASR where I have not judged with necessary levels of momentum. So, picking hammers etc against the trend, holding on too long in what were minor moves, thinking it was the top and the train had turned.

It seems simple - identify the trend with MAs and TLs, hell, if the PA starts in the bottom left and finished in the top right then the trend is up???
So, you get PASR off the rising TL (GBPYEN as a good example last week) and I talk myslef out, thinking this is the top of a move?

How do I resolve this issue? Is it a mind issue, insufficient training wrt PASR? Is there a better way of spotting falling/rising momentum (back to the TLs?) What are the best signs of the train turning?

Another thing I noticed is a leaning towards shorting markets? Is this a psychological issue too? I would say that around 70% of my trades are shorts? I can't / won't take a long for some odd reason?

If anything, this should highlight one of the reasons for keeping good trading logs - to review hidden trends in one's own trading!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,950
  • May 13, 2009 10:39am May 13, 2009 10:39am
Quoting Grimweasel
?

Another thing I noticed is a leaning towards shorting markets? Is this a psychological issue too? I would say that around 70% of my trades are shorts? I can't / won't take a long for some odd reason?

Looks like you've been following the trend to me.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,951
  • May 13, 2009 11:10am May 13, 2009 11:10am
True Swami - but forex is a zero-sum game so on the opposite side of every short is a long! Depends if you are shorting the right side of the pair and your analysis and PASR recognition is correct - which in my case looks to be on poor form.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,952
  • May 13, 2009 2:35pm May 13, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting strat
OK, haircut. Did you ever tell us the reason behind your handle?...

Thanks Strat...firstly my handle comes from a sketch on a tv show called the Mary Whitehouse experience from 1990 and I went to school the next day and was called haircut and the nickname has stuck ever since many people do not know my real name!!!

I have read and understood all your points above and will not be looking for a head and shoulders formation again as I obviously do not know what one is ha ha ha.

Sorry I mentioned how many pips I closed the first half of the trade for will not happen again!!!.


As for the last half I am going to adjust my stop at the close of each day locking in profit and keeping the stop above previous resistances I will be giving this trade plenty of room to run though as I believe it could go a decent way for me as the golden cross has occured on the worker, there has only been 8 of these in the last year and they normally signal a nice movement, it has also occured at what I believe to be a great level!! ( but what do I now ha ha ha )
Thanks for your advice Strat.

(I have attached the current chart for the trade as I type)
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  • #2,953
  • May 13, 2009 4:27pm May 13, 2009 4:27pm
Hi Team

On checking my charts I see on AusUsd - double high low close, but it's against the prevailing trend. It's a Counter Trend trade, & the last 4 bars have tested a pre drawn trend line from July 08.

Very similar for NzdUsd.

However, I will not be taking them as I, as per Strat's rules, I'm only to trade shooting stars and hammers, respectively in a trend.

usd Jpy and CadJpy todays bars have touched pre drawn trend lines from Jan 09 & feb 09, I will be watching this TL area.

...will carry on checking the others...
  • #2,954
  • May 13, 2009 4:27pm May 13, 2009 4:27pm
USD CHF

At a very interesting stage.

The Big Boss is definitely down.
Boss is in strong down trend although the current candle (obviously not completed until Friday) is bullish.
Daily is stalled at the psycho level of 1.1000 and the Fib 61.8. After a large bear candle last Friday, the three days of this week so far have settled at the R 1.1100 level. All the MAs are above this week’s candles and yesterday’s candle was a bond hammer. Today’s is a small bodied almost BEOB which indicates indecision by bulls/bears.
The overall trend seems bearish but any trader needs to wait for PASR around this psycho-Fib level to confirm the likely short.

As all the chart signs are that a break upwards is unlikely, a move downwards from the present SR level would be to the next S level of 1.09233 and thence to 1.07292.

1.05718 is the level of the previous SL.

So… PASR around the 1.1100 level needed to confirm the break down. A break down would give three PTs: 1.09233, 1.07292 and 1.05718.

SL would be above the R level of 1.1100 level until BE and profit taking at the subsequent PTs.

Risk would be the length of the previous day’s candle plus two pips + spread for a potential fall of around 600 pips.
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  • #2,955
  • May 13, 2009 5:17pm May 13, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Team

On checking my charts I see on AusUsd - double high low close, but it's against the prevailing trend. It's a Counter Trend trade, & the last 4 bars have tested a pre drawn trend line from July 08.

Very similar for NzdUsd.

However, I will not be taking them as I, as per Strat's rules, I'm only to trade shooting stars and hammers, respectively in a trend.

usd Jpy and CadJpy todays bars have touched pre drawn trend lines from Jan 09 & feb 09, I will be watching this TL area.

...will carry on checking the others...

I saw that as well, it is not a double high on my data, but it is almost a Bearish Engulfing, just a couple pips to engulf the low. But, like you no trades without a star or hammer. Also a fairly nice Bearish Engulfing on NZD/USD, again it is against the trend and not a star or hammer.
  • #2,956
  • May 13, 2009 6:03pm May 13, 2009 6:03pm
I too will be passing on the Aussie and Kiwi......wrong way really.......
  • #2,957
  • May 13, 2009 6:23pm May 13, 2009 6:23pm
The world holds its breath....is it a recovery?but its falling off now.......

Stop hunt?....retrace?.....i dont know....but i know i dont fancy selling the beobs......


it cant stay here for ever......but i can wait forever...........g
  • #2,958
  • May 13, 2009 6:27pm May 13, 2009 6:27pm
guys you gotta go to "you tube" and see the "whipsaw song".....right now
  • #2,959
  • May 13, 2009 7:19pm May 13, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting strat
Naws, your concerns are VERY valid and for those on their very first step on the path, should stay out until more experienced. The long trades where the 20 is supporting prices (prices above 20) are the safest and lowest risk and usually more profitable.

In this case, what I hope One14 saw was an established uptrend retracing to 61.8% (my data) with good PASR (no hammer on my data so didn't take!). Price usually dips below the 20 on full retraces (not just profit taking) AND, providing everything else lines up (confluence) we ASSUME the trend...
I did see a trend retracing, but my retrace calculation (Fib) was closer to 50%.

So I ask myself..."Self...did I measure differently than Strat?"

I measured from the low of Jan 21 (112.06) to the high of Apr 06 (137.42) including the wicks.

Our data can't be off that many pips.
  • #2,960
  • May 13, 2009 7:52pm May 13, 2009 7:52pm
Hi All,

EURUSD

What a price action to watch eurusd reacting to 3700 level. Yesterday candle earlier hit 3700 and rejected hard but came back closed near 3700. Today candle took out yesterday high and closed below 3580 which has been minor support for last two days. Today price action is pretty bearish and no Strat, I am not trying to sell something just comments.
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