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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,901
  • May 12, 2009 1:36pm May 12, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting strat
Let me know where you saw this "I have read else where on this thread that it is very important that the candles on my charts correspond with the New York close" [color=Blue][color=Black]because it's a load of rubbish!

It does not matter when YOUR data ends and starts. YOU can only read YOUR charts and trade what is on YOUR charts. We all have different data feeds which present us with different PA, but over the course of the year, it will even itself out. It is because of different data feeds and their closing times...
Thanks Strat
  • #2,902
  • May 12, 2009 2:25pm May 12, 2009 2:25pm
HI Guys I am currently short the U/J I have attatched my charts and here are the reasons I took the trade any advice is more than welcome.

Boss Chart.
The main trend in this pair has been down since Feb 2007. I had noticed that the retracement we have had since Jan 2009 had reached the 61.8 fib area and the weekly candles had not closed above the Boss 50 on 2 attempts and the price was now sat at the 50 fib area and also at an area of s/r I had drawn on my chart.

Worker.
On the worker chart there had been an inside bar on 04/05 but it was above the ma's and I was not interested in selling into them. However on the 08/05 there was another inside bar and the low of the outside bar was below both the ma's which were sitting close to each other and looking ready for a golden cross.
Also a head and shoulders formation was forming so I sold the pair on the break of the low of the mother candle.

I open two lots and closed the first lot at 97.30 for 90 pips profit as it was where I had a trend line and a line of support drawn on my chart.
I am now at break even on my second lot but I am hopeful this could run as we have now had the golden cross of the ma's and powered through the trend line I had drawn, and neckline of the head and shoulders
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  • #2,903
  • May 12, 2009 2:59pm May 12, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting fountaintree
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the reply previously.

Was going through the thread again. Anyway, I am reading post #228 by you with reference to Bloom about the difference between SR as taught by J16 and you.

I am thinking of the difference.

I am sure we agree S&R is a zone thus as you mention the ".xxxish". Secondly, we can find out what is the major SR from weekly chart + reviewing the number of time prices have bounced off at the SR. (Which is in agreement with J16).

Thus, is the differences with reference to the SL. Eg, J16 use SR + other...
Baby G! You made my day, nay my week, nay my month. Thank you!

Other than using definite levels for our S&R, as opposed to J16 PPZ, our PASR is the same. I recommend SL placement either below the set up bar, below S&R or below the swing - it is all on a case by case basis depending on where price is in relation to everything around it.

Where we differ, is on the application of PASR in trading. I don't like wasting my time and effort with getting out of a trade at the first S&R - I'm a trend rider. Baby G and Swami are J16 trained, tried and tested so if you like to load up your pips (but still no more than 2%), they do the short term stuff with low risk waiting for the perfect opportunity. Blackeagle has his style which is probably between my long term trend trading (when I can get it) and Baby G and Swami. All in all we cover just about everything on here - except short time frames although Nicola is very successful with crude on H4 and gets some strokes from gbpjpy on H4.

A set up is a set up and not a trade. A trade only happens when the set up is triggered and we have NO CONTROL over that - ONLY the market controls our destiny once we have set up. PASR is not 100%, nothing in trading is, only The Market.

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,904
  • May 12, 2009 3:11pm May 12, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Strat,
I had a long think about my past 2 errors on the drive into to work this morning and I must apologise for them. Having re-read my post on the errant indicator it does come across as smart-arse. This was not my intention; often I don't articulate myself in my written work as well as orally!

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have a friend who works in London for one of the US large banks and he said (he's in risk management) that a couple of the traders on the floor used the said indicator. I also read...
OK, Danny boy, put your stripes back on. Admitting this in front of everyone takes guts - yes, my PM was a test - a huge part of trading psychology is knowing thyself AND being HONEST with thyself. You have done this.

Let's move forward with a clean sheet - but PLEASE, learn more about PASR especially hammers and shooting stars at S&R so that you don't go looking for your crutches.

Welcome back, Danny boy
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,905
  • May 12, 2009 3:42pm May 12, 2009 3:42pm
Thanks Strat - means a lot - back to school for this callsign.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,906
  • May 12, 2009 3:43pm May 12, 2009 3:43pm
Thanks for the reply to the pm.
Welcome back, it's as if you've never been away!
Re your handicap, all i can say is, if you analyse your swing as much as you do your trading, you'll be playing off scratch in no time!!

G
  • #2,907
  • May 12, 2009 3:45pm May 12, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the post....
Thanks for the offer to hug, but sadly I must decline. Now if you were Nicola or Nicole, I may think twice!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,908
  • May 12, 2009 3:47pm May 12, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting AstonDan
My two cents, for what its worth (about 1 cent ).

EURGBP isn't one to go near until it proves its intentions in either of these areas. I think it's a horrible pair though so i'm not full of love for it!

Attachment
It would have only been an ATM trade for me
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,909
  • Edited 4:17pm May 12, 2009 4:13pm | Edited 4:17pm
Evening all, now we have Grim back our equilibrium is restored

But what about the queen?

On Cable, i marked off 1.5 as key psycho resistance a while ago (because i'm simple and like to think in big round numbers). When price closed above 1.5 last week i PM'd Strat who warned me not to forget about the next step of resistance around 1.5220 - he's a wise old owl so i listened.

Since then we've seen 1.5 supporting price but it hasn't really gone anywhere, being held down by an ascending TL. Today i have a BUEB which has touched 1.5350 (above the TL) and is looking to close ABOVE 1.5220 (the previous resistance from the beginning of January 2009.

So my trade idea this evening WOULD be a Buy Stop at 1.5375 with a stop loss at 1.5050 - its with the trend (boss and big boss), its a break out of TL and resistance, its PA...unfortunatley, this puts it at 2.89% risk, which is out of my rulebook and out of my comfort zone, so i'm back on the sidelines but for those with larger accounts than mine, it may be something to consider.

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  • #2,910
  • May 12, 2009 4:35pm May 12, 2009 4:35pm
Just after the close on my feed:

Big Boss consolidating after down trend since July 2008. Forming triangle on R at 1.26442.

Boss similar although after breakout up two weeks ago now showing doji with close at 1.36484.

Daily now showing a possible double top at previous resistance of 1.36500ish with today's candle being almost a shooting star but wick not long enough for full SS status. Not a BEOB either quite. Nevertheless it shows a degree of doubt for the bull break out from the triangle after the bear candle of yesterday. Possible elastic band effect?

Watch for further PA at this R level of 3.6800 ish. Possible development would be continuation of breakout up trend from triangle but Big Boss MA above it. If R level holds and a double top is formed and confirmed by PA tomorrow, a down move from here might be to the the next major support at 1.32400 which is also a Fib 23.6. Next move down might be to the confluence of MAs (20, 50 and Boss 20), TL and Fib 38.2. Rule of 4?

Worth watching?
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  • #2,911
  • May 12, 2009 4:41pm May 12, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting AstonDan
So my trade idea this evening WOULD be a Buy Stop at 1.5375 with a stop loss at 1.5050 - its with the trend (boss and big boss), its a break out of TL and resistance, its PA...unfortunatley, this puts it at 2.89% risk, which is out of my rulebook and out of my comfort zone, so i'm back on the sidelines but for those with larger accounts than mine, it may be something to consider.

Attachment
Dan this makes no sense, how exactly do you position size a trade please.
You are in charge of the % risk buddy not the trade. I am worried..........and not just abut the MM.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,912
  • May 12, 2009 4:54pm May 12, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Strat,
I had a long think about my past 2 errors on the drive into to work this morning and I must apologise for them. Having re-read my post on the errant indicator it does come across as smart-arse. This was not my intention; often I don't articulate myself in my written work as well as orally!

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have a friend who works in London for one of the US large banks and he said (he's in risk management) that a couple of the traders on the floor used the said indicator. I also read...

Good post Grimweasel,

I often think Strat is being a bit harsh (not the words that pass through my mind) when he slaps posters down, but then I remember the thread's purpose. It's a thread to teach a particular approach that Strat has found to work so like all Guru's he has to smack the devil out of errant learners. Reminiscent of Zen masters and their sticks.


On the question of charts and different midnights I don't entirely agree with Strat's post. I know why he said to trade what you've got and what you see but it does illustrate the must problematic element of 4 hour bars and to a lesser extent, daily bars.

They look different depending on your midnight. What is worse the efficacy of hammers is different for different midnights. Why? Because PA works in a significant part, like SR, because lots of people can see it. So the more people have the midnight that matters the more people see it. The two best midnights are London midnight and reopen of Globex (in the late Chicago afternoon after its shut down). London because of the amount of trading financials and Globex because so many contracts start their new day with Globex open ... and no small amount of trading on fx, bond, and index futures.

So personally I set my daily bars to the Globex midnight. My charting package, Sierra Chart, lets me adjust the zones to achieve that. If you're charting package doesn't let you do that and you can't fix it by changing the time zones on your computer then go back to the basic principle and trade what you see.
  • #2,913
  • May 12, 2009 4:58pm May 12, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting haircut
HI Guys I am currently short the U/J I have attatched my charts and here are the reasons I took the trade any advice is more than welcome.

Boss Chart.
The main trend in this pair has been down since Feb 2007. I had noticed that the retracement we have had since Jan 2009 had reached the 61.8 fib area and the weekly candles had not closed above the Boss 50 on 2 attempts and the price was now sat at the 50 fib area and also at an area of s/r I had drawn on my chart.

Worker.
On the worker chart there had been an inside bar on 04/05 but it was above...
OK, haircut. Did you ever tell us the reason behind your handle?

There are some good points, some not so good points and some bad points in your trade

First of all congratulations on a successful trade – you are on demo right? Please don’t post the number of pips made – we can work it out if we need to.

Everything on the BOSS was good except last week’s candle was neither ideal or at the best of positions to give the go ahead for a LOW RISK trade, but OK for a higher risk trade. The previous week’s candle was a BUOB FULLY supported by BOTH the 20 and previous support. This alone should have alerted you to RISK. Last week’s candle was NOT PA – yes it bounced off the 50 and closed below support and 50% fib BUT it was NOT a directional candle. Price could have gone either way on this candle so in this respect you were lucky. Now if this week’s candle holds, it has set up a bearish harami pattern which is far safer to trade off with LOWER RISK.

Let’s look at your analysis on the Worker.
“”On the worker chart there had been an inside bar on 04/05 but it was above the ma's and I was not interested in selling into them””
This is very good. One important point and consideration you missed is – remember the IB is an indecision bar – it is at the crossroads (Eric Clapton 1970s) where the buyers and sellers have met and agreed to do ---NOTHING. An IB is also a PAUSE bar in an established trend. Since the previous bar had not reached resistance, there was always the possibility that price could have continued in the direction of the previous trend, up.

“”0n 8/05 there was another inside bar and the low of the outside bar was below both the ma's which were sitting close to each other and looking ready for a golden cross””
This is very good.

“”Also a head and shoulders formation was forming””
This is WRONG and talking yourself into a trade. A H&S is a bottom/top reversal pattern that needs to form over at least 30 bars, the more the better, to be valid.

“”I sold the pair on the break of the low of the mother candle””
“”Mother” candle – is this for Baby G’s benefit?
Let’s get our terminology correct – it is the “set up” candle.
This is also WRONG and you were lucky with this. The “set up” candle has no buy/sell boundaries – it is floating in space – it is in no man’s land. Look to the left at the next candle, May 6th, I think. What do you see? There is a candle with a lower low, which on my data has bounced off support. This is the level where PREVIOUSLY, the sellers were rejected and buyers came in, so for the lowest risk entry, your sell stop should have at least been below the low of this bar and better yet, below that support level. Do you see this and understand this? You came out OK this time but next time, the Queen may take her revenge!

As with the previous IB, it COULD have gone either way so again you dropped lucky.

So, you have 1 contract running, what is your PLAN for this? How are you going to manage this?

So, good job on a successful trade but next time do it with LESS RISK and until you get a lot of winning trades under your belt, I would prefer you stick with the basic price reversal bars first.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,914
  • May 12, 2009 4:59pm May 12, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting Swami S
Dan this makes no sense, how exactly do you position size a trade please.
You are in charge of the % risk buddy not the trade. I am worried..........and not just abut the MM.
Because this is the minimum position size i could trade. I can't go any lower in terms of £ per pip, and i can't reduce the stop size on this bar...

I'm sorry Swami, am i missing something?
  • #2,915
  • May 12, 2009 5:07pm May 12, 2009 5:07pm
If you have not read this then you might want to.
Full of wisdom for the traders mind.

http://www.sonshi.com/learn.html

there is also an excellent thread by FTI exploring it specifically in regards to trading.

G's Favourite " 1 bushel of the enemy's rice is worth 20 of mine"
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,916
  • May 12, 2009 5:16pm May 12, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting AstonDan
Because this is the minimum position size i could trade. I can't go any lower in terms of £ per pip, and i can't reduce the stop size on this bar...

I'm sorry Swami, am i missing something?

Yes I believe so. I figured this was your problem but either you need a bigger account or smaller lot sizes to trade. Period.
I may be misunderstanding you but basically you should be able to put even 1% on this if you wanted to and have sufficient granulation to take some off as required.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,917
  • May 12, 2009 5:17pm May 12, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting Swami S
If you have not read this then you might want to. Full of wisdom for the traders mind.
One who knows the enemy and knows himself will not be endangered in a hundred engagements. One who does not know the enemy but knows himself will sometimes be victorious, sometimes meet with defeat. One who knows neither the enemy or himself will invariably be defeated in every engagement.


Dan ... that candle is just too damn big then. Wait for a better one.
  • #2,918
  • May 12, 2009 5:19pm May 12, 2009 5:19pm
GBPJPY

On my feed at end of day:

Big Boss - shooting star at 147.107. Long term down trend from 7/07 with current up trend for last 4 months finishing(?) with the current SS. Need to wait for the close of this month's candle to see if this SS marks the end of the current short lasting bull trend.

Boss - Up trend since Jan 09. Now double top at R of 149.982 with BEEB. Watch for further PA to see if double top marks a move down.

Daily - previous bull TL now providing resistance with BEEB on 11/05 followed by bearish dragonfly doji supported on MA20, 50 and Boss 20 also below. This support is likely to be powerful so????? Wait for further PA to see how situation develops.
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  • #2,919
  • Edited 5:32pm May 12, 2009 5:31pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting AstonDan
Evening all, now we have Grim back our equilibrium is restored

But what about the queen?

On Cable, i marked off 1.5 as key psycho resistance a while ago (because i'm simple and like to think in big round numbers). When price closed above 1.5 last week i PM'd Strat who warned me not to forget about the next step of resistance around 1.5220 - he's a wise old owl so i listened.

Since then we've seen 1.5 supporting price but it hasn't really gone anywhere, being held down by an ascending TL. Today i have a BUEB which has touched 1.5350...
Hey, less of the "old"!

I don't like it at all Dan. Today's bar has been rejected by one level of resistance leaving a long wick to close at a lower level of resistance.

I have just thrown up some of my other "stuff" and it shows confluence of 3 levels of resistance at 1.5388. That aside, visually I don't like it because it is at the top of the "channel" (have you been talking with Paul - he is into channels?) you have drawn and as the channel traders will tell you, you should only buy at the bottom of the channel.

Yes, it's in an uptrend, but we need to get in at the right time to avoid some serious draw down.

I understand your risk % - must be something in the water down South!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,920
  • May 12, 2009 5:39pm May 12, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting strat
Hey, less of the "old"!

I don't like it at all Dan. Today's bar has been rejected by one level of resistance leaving a long wick to close at a lower level of resistance.
Thanks Strat. I suppose i'm looking (alarm bells ) for price to go through the upper TL and become support, when i've no idea what will happen!

Back to the drawing board for me.

(Sorry about the old )
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