Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

Short Video - where's the money?

Congressman Alan Grayson questions Federal Reserve Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman about the trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve is lending, spending, or carrying in off balance sheet obligations. The footage demonstrates the IG doesn’t really have a sense of how the money (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aGq2B3XeGKok) is being used.

http://dailyreckoning.com/is-anyone-minding-the-store-at-the-federal-reserve/

Nice chart Hans. Did you sell in the 1.3660 area? Do you think the daily time frame is trending down? Or has the trend on the daily changed ? I realize that even a 5 year old can tell what the trend is, but looking at your chart, it's difficult for me to say which direction it is trending. At what point do you say "Okay, the trend has switched & I'm going to look for a place to enter an order going the other direction?"

Chart

Hi, shotshell.

Yes, I sold. It was a lucky fill at 1.365. I quickly moved my stop loss to break even when 30 pips in profit because it is a position against the current uptrend. I will hold it until 1.35-ish because I see this level (1.34 - 1.35) the testing area for the larger Daily trend.

Seeing the trend line from July 15 to December 18 has now been broken, I am looking for a retest of that trend line around 1.35 (shown on the graph above). I will then look at BUYING somewhere around 1.34 - 1.35. (I know this is a 100 pip range, but I am a Daily/Weekly time frame trader. I hold positions for a few days, usually.)

I believe we're looking at a Daily uptrend at the moment. (Last week changed my mind from down to up.) But I do not foresee it lasting abnormally long because the overall (long-term) trend is down. Therefore, all BUY positions will be entered into cautiously.

Thanks for the prompt reply Hans! I too feel we are now in at least a temporary uptrend. Best to be careful as you suggest with the long positions until we have more confirmation to the upside.

ah...
I am not alone on this...
it looks long to me...but we never know...
so I am long until PA says otherwise.

Agreed. On May 5, I said the trend had been channeling downward but because of Wednesday through Friday's movement, my viewpoint has changed to northbound. I'll be BUYING for awhile now, possibly to 1.46 or higher.

If north we go...then I go north...
...but taking PT on the way...
from R to R...
we will see...
I am in as long right now.
if fail...then HA

Spoken like a true expert . . . simply trade what the charts provide.

Hello All,

luSan tipped me off to this thread, and I am looking forward to learning the approach here.

Any suggestions (short of reading all 500+ pages) to get started?

I admit that I have fallen prey to attempting to trade short (5min) time frames and just can't seem to get the flow of the market. Thankfully, I haven't lost any money trading live, but hundreds of hours of screen time yielding no return is a real bummer!

So, being the open-minded person that I am, I ventured here to test the waters. I'm an "all-in" kind of guy, so given the word, I'll take the plunge and start reading the entire thread. But hopefully, that's not necessary. I've got my fingers crossed that some of the veterans here can point me to some of the important posts. And I will likely read the entire thread anyway, I just would like to avoid reading it as if cramming for a biology final exam!

No shortcuts for me. I just would like to learn in the most efficient way possible.

I'm looking forward to joining the group.

Doc

im afraid your gonna have to go through the whole thread sorta, I did it recently all 460 pages at that stage...

read carefully all of Jackos posts and the other more knowedgeable posters/turtles, you can skim the rest....

Well it certainly would be good practice to read the entire thread but honestly the core components of Jacko's method are contained on the first page. The only major addendum is that the trailing stop is currently 100 pips (not 50) due to increased volatility.

Also, I think it is important to mention to Jacko newbies is that he only trades in the direction of the main trend. There are a few of his followers who trade both ways but trading strictly Jacko styley is to trade only in the direction of the trend.

Hope this helps!

Hey Doc,

As others have mentioned, all the info you need is on the first couple of pages of the thread. It's prob a good idea to read through as much of the thread as you can anyway.

I have attached a summary of the thread that another member of the forum (Barrypips) put together.

You could read through this 1st and then tackle the thread from the beginning.

cheers
MM

Thanks for the response, guys. You confirmed my suspicions - I figured that most, if not all of the details were in the first posts. And I am slowly working my way through the thread. The more examples I see, the better off I'll be. My concern with this is that the examples are usually provided by those trying to learn the method as opposed to the person teaching the method.

So I will pay particular attention to the posts by Jacko.

Thanks again!

Doc

BTW - thank you for not flaming me for being lazy, because that is not the case at all. I just wanted to better understand what I am getting myself into.

@MinceMeat,

Thanks for providing the summary. Gives a bit more useful detail than simply reading the first pages.

@Anyone

A quick question about the trailing stop. Is anyone adjusting based upon ATR, or similar calculation, scaled using the benchmark of 50 pips for the 2006 ATR?

e.g. in the latter half of 2006 the ATR(14) on the daily chart was approximately 0.007. Today it is on the order of 0.016, so the scaled TS would be 50*0.016/0.007 = 114 pips, which is essentially the 100 pips that has been suggested. Can this "scaling" be used to find the appropriate TS for other currency pairs?

Thanks,
Doc

I've been keeping an eye on this rising trendline I drew a few days ago. Price is crossing back and forth, but it seems to be holding true at the moment.

Funny how outlook changes so rapidly. If the market changes back south, so will our precious e/u. Especially since this bullishness is dependent on dollar weakness more than euro strength. Whatever the case. I would love to see more clear direction soon. A weaker market will increase appetite for risk aversion, strengthening the greenback.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aurndyPek5zg&refer=home

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Most U.S. stocks fell for a second day as share sales at Ford Motor Co., U.S. Bancorp and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. heightened concern that earnings will be diluted by capital-raising efforts.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased most of a 1.4 percent slide as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan+Greenspan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1) said the housing may be near a recovery and financial markets should continue improving. Pfizer Inc. led gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average as Credit Suisse Group AG said the company may boost its dividend after buying Wyeth. Ford slid 18 percent, while U.S. Bancorp (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USB%3AUS) and Anadarko slumped at least 3.3 percent after selling shares or announcing plans to do so.
“In the long term these things will be positive steps for a more sound financial system, but in the intermediate or short term, they’re not shareholder-friendly,” Eric Teal (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Eric+Teal&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), who oversees $5 billion as chief investment officer at First Citizens Bank in Raleigh, North Carolina, said of the share sales.
Almost two stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent to 908.35 at 4:09 p.m. in New York. The Dow added 50.34 points, or 0.6 percent, to 8,469.11. European and Asian stocks declined.
The S&P 500 briefly turned positive in afternoon trading after Greenspan told a conference of the National Association of Realtors that the U.S. is “at the edge of a major liquidation” of unsold properties, which may help stabilize prices.


Last Week’s Rally
The S&P 500 last week rose 5.9 percent, erasing this year’s loss, as results from the government’s stress tests of banks reassured investors and the pace of job cuts slowed in April. The measure’s 37 percent jump from March 9 through May 8 is the most over similar spans since the 1930s.
The two-month rally (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND) in global equity markets has been based on expectations of a rapid economic recovery that is “extremely unlikely” to materialize, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Paul+Krugman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), who spoke at a forum in Shanghai today.


Economists downgraded their projections for a recovery from the deepest U.S. recession in half a century, now seeing the jobless rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) exceeding 8 percent through 2011, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Unemployment will average 8.5 percent in 2011 after a 9.6 percent rate next year, higher than previously expected, according to the median forecast in the survey taken from May 4 to May 11. The economy may expand 2.8 percent in 2011, less than estimated last month, after a 1.9 percent rise in 2010.
The S&P 500 is up 0.6 percent in 2009 after tumbling 38 percent last year, its worst annual tumble since the Great Depression.
“We’re in a bottom formation,” said Gregor Mast (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Gregor+Mast&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), an equity strategist at Clariden Leu in Zurich, which oversees about $88 billion. “Economic data and earnings are less bad and sentiment has improved but that’s not enough for a lasting upward trend. We’ll see backlashes.”

Hi BullsAndBear,

Tks for that most informative post, but we should not worry about the future as we have Obama as captain of the ship along with his able bodied crew. I have no doubt the current situation will only get better once they have socialism up and running at full steam ahead. We should all take comfort in knowing our every need could be met in the future. ???

"Yes we can!"

Hi Guys,

I have trading this method successfully for a while now. However, took a week's vacation last week and didn't trade. Have come back to the charts this week after my break and i'm totally confused! The reason i'm struggling is because the market has gone bullish this week and last and I am now having problems identifying which way to trade. People are talking about trendlines being broken and a short-term bull trend, however when I look at the daily chart I see that this current move up is not really anything compared to other retracements we have seen in this bear run. So I am reluctant to trade long. The strength in the Jacko method is being on the correct side of the trend, so don't want to get this wrong. I have tried drawing trendlines on my charts but these confuse me even more. I know Jacko says that to identify a change of trend, wait for daily TL to break and then the confirmation is TL showing support. I think what I really need to know is what is the correct way to draw these TLs for Jackos method, I really struggle to identify the significant highs/lows. If anyone could offer any guidance I would be very grateful.