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  • #11,341
  • May 11, 2009 8:17pm May 11, 2009 8:17pm
I think it can increase your accuracy and % of successful trades a lot, but anyways, here's the EU and GU I'm watching right now
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  • #11,342
  • May 11, 2009 8:26pm May 11, 2009 8:26pm
So is this false downmove in the pound yesterday accompanied by higher relative volume indicative of market strength? It fits with the basic principle of strength on downbars with higher volume. Yeh the mtm pdf is great, trying to get through it.

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  • #11,343
  • May 11, 2009 8:59pm May 11, 2009 8:59pm
Right, they're not definitive moves though. Often times you will see that move duplicated on both sides, i.e. it 'false breaks' upwards on high volume, then 'false breaks' downwards on high volume, before finally beginning the up move.

In that particular case, I would say look to the background-- what do you think is happening? It looks like accumulation to me, so I would probably be looking for moves that confirm an upmove, and a 'false break' downward is a good indication one may be about to begin.

Anyways, right now I'm watching the EURUSD and EURJPY mainly. I trade mostly EURUSD but EURJPY seems to have more action and faster, leading the way for good confirming setups in the EURUSD. Personally I would like to see the EJ slowly move back up after it has just broken down, and the EU move upwards to maybe tag that trendline before heading south. Things don't always work out how you plan, that's just what would be ideal for me

By the way, if you have a lot of questions, check out the VSA thread. There's guys there who have been using it for quite a while, and would be better able to answer any questions than me. I'm new to it, but the basics are relatively easy to grasp and implement.
  • #11,344
  • Edited 10:01pm May 11, 2009 9:30pm | Edited 10:01pm
Would love to go short EU right now, hate taking trades during this hour though..

edit: I'm short now, both EU and in physical stature

we'll see how it goes, relatively tight stop, Asia is slower and less volatile, I like the low risk

edit2: putting some targets and alerts in, time for beddy bye, happy trading tonight
  • #11,345
  • Edited 10:48pm May 11, 2009 10:06pm | Edited 10:48pm
Quoting smittens4212
Right, they're not definitive moves though. Often times you will see that move duplicated on both sides, i.e. it 'false breaks' upwards on high volume, then 'false breaks' downwards on high volume, before finally beginning the up move.

In that particular case, I would say look to the background-- what do you think is happening? It looks like accumulation to me, so I would probably be looking for moves that confirm an upmove, and a 'false break' downward is a good indication one may be about to begin.

Anyways, right now I'm watching the EURUSD...
Ive been digging through it little bit by little bit throughout the day and no surprise than many of the people that post in this thread also have a solid history in that one as well!

Yuppie, smittens or anybody else Ive been digging through searching for a basic summary, if you will, on specific setups. They coincide very well with what we do here.

This indicator alone: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=386

is based on some old principles I used to follow. When I first started trading it was in futures, so much of the materials I read dove deep into VSA. Here's the pdf that goes with it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=286

VSA pretty much sums up the 'herd' mentaility I talk about alot with order flow analysis. Same idea. One boy gets in and the rest follow, wait for the pullbacks caused by banks unloading inventory/scalping countertrend, etc....the only different is they see numbers on the books (but only their own - see market microstructure eg) in terms of position size, we see tick data and make assumptions. But you cant hide enormous moves. Most of these guys that trade only use this as a tool, too. Market makers are just speculators, like you or I.

Just some stuff floating around my head....

Bu the main issue I found with VSA is the lack of definitive rules. There can be a lot of discretion involved in trading it. Patterns of bars, etc etc. Can be 'iffy' alot of times. Im not going to say Im an expert - like anything else once you're comfortable with something you master it so my input admittedly lacks something here.
  • #11,346
  • May 12, 2009 1:43am May 12, 2009 1:43am
Yup, there's only a few 'definitive' moves and one could probably do well enough just trading those. The high volume pin bars and the like, really obvious sometimes.

I got stopped out earlier, lost 15 pips, maybe too narrow a stop-loss as it's just kind of teetering out there

Looking short again perhaps in a bit but I can't tell right now if that'd be forcing it, will hold off and see what happens in the next hour or two

e: actually things look better long maybe, I might just stay out for the rest of the night
  • #11,347
  • May 12, 2009 1:57am May 12, 2009 1:57am
Good Morning

Does anyone want to talk levels today?

I don't see any of my favourite London openers setting up so I'll carry on sorting my charts out and look what the GMT 4hr close might serve up.
  • #11,348
  • May 12, 2009 2:04am May 12, 2009 2:04am
giving long gu a try, not much patience there though, relatively tight stop for the pair (30 pips). not really a no brainer, but worth a shot

going to play it with a target towards the bucket on the H1 chart around 1.5200

I don't trade this pair too often, so I'm taking this as a sort of training trade, should be interesting

edit: well... that was quick. up 30, moved stop to breakeven, if it moves back against me, no harm no foul
  • #11,349
  • May 12, 2009 2:17am May 12, 2009 2:17am
Was this pin indicating smart money coming in before the break?

I hope so, but it's still too early to tell. In any case it could've been used for a good scalping signal at least.
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  • #11,350
  • May 12, 2009 2:47am May 12, 2009 2:47am
Quoting smittens4212
giving long gu a try, not much patience there though, relatively tight stop for the pair (30 pips). not really a no brainer, but worth a shot

going to play it with a target towards the bucket on the H1 chart around 1.5200

I don't trade this pair too often, so I'm taking this as a sort of training trade, should be interesting

edit: well... that was quick. up 30, moved stop to breakeven, if it moves back against me, no harm no foul
This sort of counter trend push just before London open is the sort of think I look for to start my day. However I like to see a push toward established s/r, this was not so clear.

A good trade to be in to begin the session though!
  • #11,351
  • May 12, 2009 3:48am May 12, 2009 3:48am
Potential Head and Shoulders on eurjpy?
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  • #11,352
  • May 12, 2009 4:20am May 12, 2009 4:20am
Anyone else thinking of fading GBP/USD?

I have 1.5336-1.5358 as resistance zone, might scale in here.
  • #11,353
  • May 12, 2009 5:00am May 12, 2009 5:00am
Quoting RedCabbage
Heads up for 5981 in NZDUSD.

Obviously watch AUDUSD when NZD hits this price too.

Look out for BIG AUD news at 10-30am GMT+1 tomorrow though.
A nice 95 pips from this trend trade.
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  • #11,354
  • Edited 6:30am May 12, 2009 5:38am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting RedCabbage
Potential Head and Shoulders on eurjpy?

Now +50pips - all safe from here.

Update: - Too much traffic for this to be a runner, price is bouncing off a minor TL and is trying to form a new channel.
  • #11,355
  • May 12, 2009 6:20am May 12, 2009 6:20am
Shiko i am new but trying to help a few people out. I dont think its the case of never letting a trade go against you. More the case of having a reasonable stop logically positioned which is in line with your money management and your risk reward ratio. It is rare to get a trade with 0 pips drawdown.//////////////


Yes, it is funny, but risk was extremely low, just 0.1% of the equity with 40 pips stop loss. i am following BRV, as he used 40 pips max, I do same now.
I think it is psychological thing cause I notice, I find S/R levels pretty accurately.
I wonder what to do about it.
  • #11,356
  • May 12, 2009 6:20am May 12, 2009 6:20am
Nice posts redcabbage
  • #11,357
  • May 12, 2009 6:26am May 12, 2009 6:26am
Quoting shiko
Shiko i am new but trying to help a few people out. I dont think its the case of never letting a trade go against you. More the case of having a reasonable stop logically positioned which is in line with your money management and your risk reward ratio. It is rare to get a trade with...
The phrase is: -

Never let a winner turn into a loser

This doesn't mean never having any drawdown but to me it means having a strict stop to b/e rule that still allows the trade room to breathe while keeping my risk as low as possible.
  • #11,358
  • May 12, 2009 6:27am May 12, 2009 6:27am
Quoting dingo432
Nice posts redcabbage
We could do with a few more 'live' posters chipping in.
  • #11,359
  • May 12, 2009 7:14am May 12, 2009 7:14am
Quoting RedCabbage
We could do with a few more 'live' posters chipping in.
Here's a Gartley in work on the Swissy daily chart. This is consistant with market sentiment of accepting risk; dollar futures down, Dow futures up and Swissy futures up. Might be a couple of days yet and lots of US news coming. Swiss news on Friday too.

SR
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  • #11,360
  • May 12, 2009 7:33am May 12, 2009 7:33am
There is a Fib (.618) at 952.20 - which also happens to be the 1.618 extension of the last move up (from 865 to 918).

The 945 level corresponds with some good SR levels on 4H chart. Maybe if it all comes together at the channel top,it might be worth a punt...

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