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  • #11,321
  • May 11, 2009 2:34am May 11, 2009 2:34am
And 1.5175 playing around....another one on the last wave, this time opposite direction.

I have a general feeing its going to be hard to turn this trend around short term.

My money shot would be to see if it wants to go higher and if so, push for sells towards the top of this channel if not already in a sell.

You've got decent resistance up around 1.5250 now, too, ...see my previous posts.
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  • #11,322
  • Edited 3:16am May 11, 2009 2:54am | Edited 3:16am
Mary Pippins just told me I did a good job here. I said - "if it gets to 1.5122 than you can say that".

Right now bouncing off May 5 high....pretty clean push.
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  • #11,323
  • Edited 3:46am May 11, 2009 3:26am | Edited 3:46am
Somebody just sent this to me - its an ebook about volume spread analysis - big file about 17mb.
I havent read it yet but at first glance the author is making sense. Market manipulation, trend analysis, etc

My friend said he found it somewhere else here on FF
here's what he said:

[4:13:10 AM] Steve: ok so whats the basic jist here
[4:13:17 AM] Steve: without me reading 188 pages
[4:14:13 AM] xx: well, it correlates the volume of a traded stock or currency with the PA to get a hint on further movements
[4:14:32 AM] xx: tries to forecast trend exhaustion reversals etc.
[4:15:43 AM] xx: volume on FX is tick volume only but, as the author claims, it can be used as well since it shows increased activity which should translate in higher volume
[4:16:25 AM] Steve: that makes sense
[4:16:34 AM] xx: most decent brokers today are plugged up with all the major players so their price feeds dont vary too much
[4:16:45 AM] Steve: I agree

anyway here it is for the helluv it its a good freebie: http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf


...
  • #11,324
  • May 11, 2009 3:28am May 11, 2009 3:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629



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  • #11,325
  • May 11, 2009 3:31am May 11, 2009 3:31am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Somebody just sent this to me - its an ebook about volume spread analysis - big file about 17mb.
I havent read it yet but at first glance the author is making sense. Market manipulation, trend analysis, etc

My friend said he found it somewhere else here on FF
here's what he said:

[4:13:10 AM] Steve W.: ok so whats the basic jist here
[4:13:17 AM] Steve W.: without me reading 188 pages
[4:14:13 AM] xx: well, it correlates the volume of a traded stock or currency with the PA to get a hint on further movements
[4:14:32 AM] xx: tries to forecast...

Yes, I am half-way through it.

Very good stuff indeed...

I promise you won't look at trading again in quite the same way.

You certainly won't believe what the papers/news tell you.

Any beliefs that you hold that markets aren't manipulated will be blown completely out the water...


Magnus
  • #11,326
  • May 11, 2009 4:25am May 11, 2009 4:25am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Somebody just sent this to me - its an ebook about volume spread analysis - big file about 17mb.
I havent read it yet but at first glance the author is making sense. Market manipulation, trend analysis, etc

My friend said he found it somewhere else here on FF
here's what he said:

[4:13:10 AM] Steve: ok so whats the basic jist here
[4:13:17 AM] Steve: without me reading 188 pages
[4:14:13 AM] xx: well, it correlates the volume of a traded stock or currency with the PA to get a hint on further movements
[4:14:32 AM] xx: tries to forecast trend...
I'm a big fan of selling whatever they push up just before London open e.g. EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD today.

Looks like this may well help me with that.

Edited to add: -

I shorted EURUSD at the best price I could get (13643) before London open. Based on the subsequent EURGBP rally and USDJPY sell off, EURJPY or GBPUSD would have been better trades but they had visually less space around them at the time.
  • #11,327
  • May 11, 2009 5:42am May 11, 2009 5:42am
Heads up for 5981 in NZDUSD.

Obviously watch AUDUSD when NZD hits this price too.

Look out for BIG AUD news at 10-30am GMT+1 tomorrow though.
  • #11,328
  • May 11, 2009 10:02am May 11, 2009 10:02am
I definitely recommend reading that VSA thread that BRV linked. Unfortunately there's a lot of garbage in it, but the OP is pretty good and there's some insightful posts in there.

Somewhere in the thread (you can click the attachment icon in the top right corner), someone took the Master the Markets pdf file and shortened it down to just the basics-- about a 30 page word document. While the volume isn't hard volume data like you would get from an exchange (it's just tick data), it does still work well. There's some comparison charts in that thread between MT4 spot volumes and futures volumes, and they're pretty identical.

It really is great stuff, I shorted EURUSD at 1.3660 last night after a new high was made but there was no subsequent volume to continue to push through-- no demand, it must drop. You can check out the volume on the 15M bars when it pushed new highs around 11PM. It sat for a while but eventually came down.

I would check a few different MT4 platforms when reading volume though, a few have had some whacky changes lately (HUGE volumes for the past week, like double-triple all the previous weeks). I was using IBFX for charting but they had this issue (Alpari, too), moved to FXPRO as their volume was much more consistent.

I'll post some charts tonight, it works GREAT with no brainer trade setups. It really gives you insight into whether a level can or will hold, and you can pinpoint some damn good entries on no-demand bars or high volume pin bars (volume accumulates against the trend, hence the pin) into S&R.
  • #11,329
  • May 11, 2009 10:07am May 11, 2009 10:07am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting smittens4212
I definitely recommend reading that VSA thread that BRV linked.

Somewhere in the thread (you can click the attachment icon in the top right corner), someone took the Master the Markets pdf file and shortened it down to just the basics-- about a 30 page word document.

It really is great stuff, I shorted EURUSD at 1.3660 last night after a new high was made but there was no subsequent volume to continue to push through-- no demand, it must drop. You can check out the volume on the 15M bars when it pushed new highs around 11PM. It sat for a while...

I'll add a couple of things here, if I may...


- I found ODL and MIG MT4 feeds to be very good with regard to volume.

- I read about half of the condensed 30-page MTM document (then started reading the orignal) - in my view, you miss quite a lot by not reading the full-document.


Magnus
  • #11,330
  • May 11, 2009 10:10am May 11, 2009 10:10am
I agree, the full pdf document is more substantive (and has a ton of examples), the word document is a decent summation of the basic concepts involved, though.
  • #11,331
  • May 11, 2009 10:40am May 11, 2009 10:40am
Quoting smittens4212
I definitely recommend reading that VSA thread that BRV linked. Unfortunately there's a lot of garbage in it, but the OP is pretty good and there's some insightful posts in there.

Somewhere in the thread (you can click the attachment icon in the top right corner), someone took the Master the Markets pdf file and shortened it down to just the basics-- about a 30 page word document. While the volume isn't hard volume data like you would get from an exchange (it's just tick data), it does still work well. There's some comparison charts in that thread...
Please do, that would be great. There's alot to say on the top of the subject - I'd like to see how you guys interpret it.
  • #11,332
  • May 11, 2009 1:17pm May 11, 2009 1:17pm
Hello everyone,

I started using BRV ideas quite recently.

Today, I was looking to enter long Eur/ Jpy at 132.10, but as market approached and price had retracement from around 5-10 pips away from my Limit order, I decided according to BRV that chances to bounce from 132.10 diminished and decided to cancel the order and moved it to 132.01. Well, it did bounced from 132.05 and went up 50-70 pips in my direction. i did not follow it of course. Tried to go short from 132.85 but as price moved in my favor, I was waiting for it to hit 10 pips to move stop loss to B/E, it went against mne I closed position at few pips win, It crossed 132.85 was, there for some time and then reversed and went again where I expected. i wonder, what am I doing wrong? I just follow my rule, as price moved into my favor, I should never let it go against me.
  • #11,333
  • May 11, 2009 3:31pm May 11, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting shiko
Hello everyone,

I started using BRV ideas quite recently.

Today, I was looking to enter long Eur/ Jpy at 132.10, but as market approached and price had retracement from around 5-10 pips away from my Limit order, I decided according to BRV that chances to bounce from 132.10 diminished and decided to cancel the order and moved it to 132.01. Well, it did bounced from 132.05 and went up 50-70 pips in my direction. i did not follow it of course. Tried to go short from 132.85 but as price moved in my favor, I was waiting for it to hit 10 pips to move...
Shiko i am new but trying to help a few people out. I dont think its the case of never letting a trade go against you. More the case of having a reasonable stop logically positioned which is in line with your money management and your risk reward ratio. It is rare to get a trade with 0 pips drawdown.
  • #11,334
  • May 11, 2009 4:12pm May 11, 2009 4:12pm
Finished reading the mtm pdf file, a very interesting read. Anyone familiar with the concepts care to comment on this. Its a trade on the aussie today, one can see that when price reached support volume greately increased, suggesting accumulation of aussie dollars (an absorbsion of supply). Price then rallied from that level.

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  • #11,335
  • May 11, 2009 4:30pm May 11, 2009 4:30pm
Right, but then demand fell off sharply as we went into the lunch and late NY hours. The last few hours are typical low volume end of NY session.
  • #11,336
  • May 11, 2009 5:49pm May 11, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting smittens4212
Right, but then demand fell off sharply as we went into the lunch and late NY hours. The last few hours are typical low volume end of NY session.
Still would have been a nice 50 pip trade.
  • #11,337
  • May 11, 2009 7:51pm May 11, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Still would have been a nice 50 pip trade.
Definitely, a very quick move too.

If you zoom down to the 15M chart (the lowest I go for volume analysis), you can see it hit a little pocket of resistance, and volumes stay relatively high while keeping the spread low and keeping the close near the middle/low.

It's a pretty solid intra-day move, similar to some of the bucket setups. The volume gives great credence to the level holding. The opposite signal at the resistance would've been either high volume high spread breakthrough (obvious), or the less obvious low volume low spread-- indicates that there is not much selling interest. In the second case of low volume low spread, if you were long it would be a good idea to see how the next few bars play out. Often times you will see price hit resistance or support with low volume for one or a few bars, only for a high spread high volume bar to come back into the equation continuing on the move. This is where you get the best help imo. Often times you will see a level get hit slightly, only for price to kind of hang around and not do much. If you take volume into consideration, price may not be doing 'much' because sellers are accumulating (high volume, low spread) and the level will hold, or because there's a temporary slowdown in buying (low volume, low spread) which can sucker people into taking shorts.
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  • #11,338
  • May 11, 2009 7:55pm May 11, 2009 7:55pm
So the take home message for analysing volume in relation to our support and resistance levels is that when we see relatively increasing volume around these areas it is suggestive of professional accumulation?
  • #11,339
  • May 11, 2009 8:08pm May 11, 2009 8:08pm
It seems that the principle of VSA is quite simple, strength appears on downbars and weakness appears on up bars. I am really interested in meshing VSA with my current knowledge of support and resistance. Check out another example of this on the USDJPY last week.

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  • #11,340
  • May 11, 2009 8:12pm May 11, 2009 8:12pm
Exactly

I would definitely recommend Master The Markets though, because it can be a lot more nuanced than that, especially reading the 'big picture'. You won't always get such easy to see price action like high volume pin bars at resistance, and this is when things can get difficult.

Another thing volume analysis is awesome for is detecting tests/fake breakouts. If a level is breached (like a new high or low) and there is no subsequent strong volume to accompany it, professionals are most likely 'testing' the market to see what sellers/buyers there are left at those levels. Or they may just be sweeping to collect any easy stops out on the market; remember, the market makers have access to that information, they know who is an easy sucker and they play it often.
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