Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

Hello everyone! Just thought I'd make a post before heading into the weekend.

Looks like the dollar took a hit as risk appetite kicked in after the NFP. Though 500,000+ jobless claims were anounced, it was a better number than forecasted, sending the DOW up, along with risk appetite, and the dollar down.

Our main pair, the GBPJPY is bouncing in it's usually 100 pip range, with an hour to close. 148.80-149.80.

You all have a great weekend, and I'll check in going into Monday.

Well wishes to you Tatton. Hope you are feeling Eirie!

Hi FXDad, thanks for all your hard work. Just a question to help me on my forex journey. I'm still on demo and not making much pips. I want to go live with a €500 deposit. I am trying out a trading robot and it seems to make more losers than winners. Therefore I want to do some manual trades. Do you trade on 5M 15M or 30M or 1H and which one works for you? With your experience which currency pairs are the most profitable

have a look at this thread first before u go live http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

Hello Forexchequer,

These are some questions I want to take some time on. I have got to go out and do some running around town, but I will post in a few hours and try to answer your questions, from my perspective. Read the post that Desperate put up for you, and learn as much as you can. Hearing all the different ideas will help you better understand how, and where, you want to go with your trading. The one question that I can answer rather quickly is about the charts..... 1H is what works best for me, and how the methods I like to find setups. I use other timeframes to confirm my ideas, or debunk them. I know Tatton likes 15m and 5m. His style and methods are different than mine, some that I would really like to learn.

Anyhow, I will be back later to answer your questions.

Take Care, Chuck

Hello Forexchequer,

Thanks again for the post! I think it is great that you are going to make the move to live trading. There is a huge psychological difference in trading live, with your own money, rather than "play money" in a demo account. Demo accounts are like training as an airplane pilot in a computer simulator. You must learn the fundamentals, but all it is is a video game, where failure has no consequence. Trading real money is like taking the controls over at 30,000 feet. The game changes, where failure is death (to your margin), and success will let you live another day (to trade again). Just be sure, you are ready, and that the amount of money you will be putting in your account is money that you can afford to lose. Statistics show, that you have more than a 95% chance that you will lose it. Especially being a first time trader. Even if you have a professional guiding you, there are many psychological factors that come into play. Learning the mindset is 99% of the game. When to get in, when to get out, how long to hold, should I take profit, or hold longer? How many pips should I give up before I close out and take a loss? These are the biggest challenges that face every trader, even professionals.

First set up a trade plan:

Are you going to swing trade, intraday trade, or scalp? This will all depend on your tolerence for how long you can ride the ups and downs of the market. The longer you are in a trade, the longer you will sometimes need to hold a negative position. Holding a position, when you are +pips, is much easier than holding when you are down. Usually the longer you hold, the larger your stop loss orders could potentially be. I'm not saying that you need to limit yourself to one length of trade, but to clearly have parameters set for each type of trade.

How many pips are you willing to give up on any one trade? The use of setting stop loss orders, is the most important tool you can learn. In my trade history, the times I've taken the worst losses, is when I decided to cancel my stops, to ride a position further in the hole, to wait for a bounce, and I almost always lost more. A habit I have almost broken. Now, when I go into a trade, I decide where to set my stops based on price action at the time of going into a trade, along with pivots, and support and resistence levels. I have my own comfort level, and everyone should decide what their comfort levels are too. Once you hold a trade beyond your comfort level, emotions and thought patterns change. When you start trading with emotions, rather than parameters, you deviate from the trade plan, and from experience, it is usually more detrimental, than profitable.

Decide on a clear objective in when to take profit. How many pips would you be happy in getting out with on a trade? This has almost the same effect as stops. Sometimes I set limits, to cash out profits, but most always, I like to clear manually. The largest number of my trades are intraday, and depending on price action, and the currency pair I'm trading, will dictate how many pips I will target. For example, the GBPJPY makes larger moves than a pair like NZDUSD. So I may target 50-100pips on the GJ, where I will only expect to gain 25-40 on the NZDUSD. Of course, if you're swing trading, you will probably be targeting 100s to 1000s of pips. Using stops is an important tool in preserving positive moves. This is another skill, that is learned and adjusted to your induvidual comfort level. The main thing is to be happy with profits. If you clear with 50 pips, but you could have held to take 200 and hour later, BE HAPPY WITH A PROFIT! There will always be another trade, in a few hours or days..... a positive move is a positive move!

How many lots should you trade? Here is where it gets pretty cut and dry. All successful traders will tell you, "Never over leverage!" I know, during my learing process, I went through a few thousand dollars, learning that over leveraging is bad. As a rule, most of what I've read other traders preach, and I tend to agree, is no more than 5% on any one trade (that is if you are at 100:1 leverage) on intraday trades.. I've adjusted it to fit my trading style and where I decide to place stops. I like to keep my stops tighter than a lot of traders. So my percentages change with the nature of the trade, but 5% is a good place to start.

OK, so I didn't give you exact pips or percentages. I don't want to post them, because what works for me, might not work for you. Everyone needs to adjust to their own style, comfort levels and emotional strengths and weeknesses. The trade plan is your blueprint to construct your forex future. You will make many mistakes and many adjustments, but always try and stick to a basic plan. Whoever wants, can email me and I will be happy to share more of my personal trade parameters, if you need help finding a starting point. I have mentioned some of my stops, and take profits etc. in previous posts.

These are fundamentals that you need to think about and try to stick with. It is trading, using good money management, and keeping your self and your trades, at a comfortable level for you. It keeps your mind clear and helps you to keep from making "emotional trades." Some will argue that you should be diverse, and that a good trader will be able to make changes on the fly. I thought that too, and it didn't work for me. I've heard other experienced traders say the same thing. The most important thing you can do to start off as a successful trader, is make a trading plan that fits you, and STICK TO IT!

Now Forexchequer, I will answer your specific questions. I didn't mean to rant, but I just wanted to enforce what you have probably already read or heard about planning your own stratedgy and tolerences. I remember how I felt when I was new to Forex, and I wish I had a forum where I could ask questions and learn more. I do thank you for the questions. I assume by now, you all can see I like to write, and talk about Forex!

So you traded a bot? I've played with a few, and some are OK, but I like how I do on my own. I don't like mathmatical equations, and a computer to make trading decisions for me. Most bots I've seen work during certain macroeconomic market conditions, ususally conditions effecting the market, at the time the bot is being programmed. If anyone has a good bot, that consistently made good profits over the last 6 months to a year, I'm sure we would all like to hear about them!

As I answered before, I watch the 1H charts, and sometimes use 4H and 1D charts to look for previous support and resistence levels.

As far as what pairs I like to trade, before I found Tatton's Thread, I traded the 7 major pairs exclusively. Now, the action on the GBPJPY has been addicting. I always shyed away from it. During my early learning curve, the GBPJPY was akin to the "red-headed step child." In the past few months, it is now my most traded pair. Again, it fits my trading style. Though I traded all of the 7 majors, I mostly traded the CAD, CHF, EUR, JPY and GBPUSD. I find the GBPJPY, USDCHF, and the GBPUSD tend to make more dramatic moves, therefore tend to make more profits. BUT, they also have greater potential for loss. GBPJPY and EURJPY can make large moves, but because of their volatility, the spreads brokers charge can fluctuate and get rather steep. So, shop around for good rates when you find your favorite pairs. I have a 2 monitor setup, and sometimes I pull out the laptop for a third. I have 8 charts set up on one monitor, and expand them when I need to. The second monitor is where I keep my main trading platform setup, along with their news ticker. I will attach a screenshot of how I have my charts set.

I hope this was of some help to you Forexchequer, and anyone else who has been patient enough to read all of this. Any questions.... please feel free to ask on the post.

I'm keeping an eye on the charts. AUDUSD and EURUSD look they want to consolidate, Cable and EUR is in a tight range right now. It's Monday, so I'm just watching right now.

Thanks! Chuck

The range on the GBPJPY has broken to the downside. I drew the range I was watching in Orange. A consolidation started to develop, but didn't get the range squeeze I would have liked to enter a sell. But, the range break would have caught my attention. Not a lot of resistence below the weekly pivot, especially after 149 was broken. It was a nice clean break and didn't hesitate much at the 149.30 area.

Wow, really nice move, is making a fast push now for 148. Just broke below into the 147s..... wow! I was watching TV thinking it would be a quiet night, and there it goes! LOL. Dollar and yen are gaining ground. Maybe a return to risk aversion today?

It's wanting to break up past .1520. Showing a range of .1520 down to .1475. Break above .1520 cound make a clean run to .1559. But may be quiet for the next couple of hours until the day begins on that side of the world. Something to watch for 20-30 pips maybe? Keep stops tight if you do.

It's breaking down again, but holding above 1.1500. If it does hold, watch for the break up. If 1.15 doesn't hold as support, a break below .1475 could send it 75 pips to easily see the 1.1400 area. USDCAD hasn't seen 1.1500 since November 5, 2008.

It made a move above .1520 to .1540 area. If you took a buy near the .1520 level, I'd move the stop to breakeven. I'm looking at this more in terms of a scalp. Mondays aren't always so cut and dry. Also, the Dollar has lost a little steam against the other majors over the past half hour or so. I always like to take profits when I can. Hate to give pips back.

I'm calling it a night. I live in the US Pacific time zone. Anyone have a room for rent in Eastern Europe? That would be a great time zone to live in for my trading! LOL! If you're in the CAD, tighten up your stops to at least breakeven. I hope you took the 20 pip target I mentioned earlier. This looks like it is going to fall back down. .1538 was holding for a bit as a short term support, but it has fallen a few pips below that. Keep an eye on it.

I'll check back in a few hours.

OK, so it moved a little better than I thought. LOL. I still probably would have ended up taking my 20-30 pips, rather than holding. It was a slow move. Anyone take this trade? Hope the info helped you bag some pips.

I'll be back a little later.

Thanks Desperate

Hi Chuck,
Thanks for your detailed reply. WOW. I have read it twice already and I will have to read it again to take it all in. How do you monitor 7 pairs and keep sane? Don't you get information overload? It's nervy watching the charts when the rates against me. I have read on some forums to stay away from GJ but the more confident I get then I guess I'll relax and enjoy the forex rollercoaster and pick up some pips along the way.

hi fxdad

hope u had a good weekend,

no i didnt take that trade,dam ,

doing a renovation to my girlfriends house,and its kept me very busy

once this is over,ill be keeping a close eye on your messages

desperate

Thanks Des!

I hope your girlfriend appreciates your work! It seems all I work for is to pay my exwife! LOL. I just could not keep my eyes open and went to sleep. It's up to .1657 right now, but I know if I would have stayed in, I would have cleared with only 10-20 pips. A trailing stop would have taken me out, because of the 1H candle at 12:00 GMT. It retraced about 20 pips, and I would not have had that wide of a stop on the TS.

Looking at the the 1H charts now, I see a consolidation squeeze on the EURGBP (yes, sometimes I watch this one too, and the GBPJPY and EURJPY setting up a nice range. Looks Like the may want to go to the downside. USDCHF forming a nice tight range too.

If you have noticed, I don't like to post exactly when to buy, sell etc. For one, no one really learns anything. That's why I like to post charts. Two, these pairs can move so fast, that by the time you see my post, it has moved out of range. That is why I like to give the range lines, and consolidation lines, so you can learn to watch for the breaks, and know when to enter trades on your own.

Check back in later. Thanks for the comments everyone!

If it breaks below the psych level of 132, it has room to fall to 131.

If you're in the trade, keep your stop tight at around 132.25-.30

I don't like to trade these similar pairs at the same time. EJ broke range first, and it was a good indicator that the GJ would follow. Remember that.

I'm out at break even. Have to go away fro the comp for a while and don't have time to watch. If it hangs around this 132 area, could make the break back down, but I'm happy with break even.

I'll check back later.

The GJ looks like it wants to move further to the south, if we can take ou previous lows we will be heading for 144 area, on high tfs we are in uptrend so make sure you use your stops when putting on the trade and use good mm.. this chart illustrates the bearish movement we are currently in, i expect to be continue falling, lets wait n see what hapens, if i have a entry i will let u guys know.

the market could easily be forming support and run up, im in a sell currently but if i see bulls coming i will follow be buying, dont commit yourself to a directing, just trade what the market does, im just giving heads up of what i think might happen.