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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #29,521
  • May 9, 2009 3:41am May 9, 2009 3:41am
Hi
I'm new here.
I notice mike has mentioned often that the pin on the EU/Aus didn't close as a pin - This is true for my GFT feed which closes at GMT But it actually is a pin on my FXPRO feed - closes closer to NY close. Which feed could carry more weight? Do we want both to be pinbars? If there is enough confluence and a good pin bar on one feed but only a nearly pin bar on another feed does that make it a sub-par trade.
Thanks in advance

Tracy

PS I am really really really loving this stuff! Thanks so much for all your wisdom.
  • #29,522
  • May 9, 2009 3:44am May 9, 2009 3:44am
Hi guys

I was tempted by the daily pin on GBP/JPY on close of Thursday and placed an order under the low of the bar with stop above the high of the bar (10 pips each way) - the SL was huge so I took a very small position (this is demo BTW and is the only order I have placed in about 2 weeks). Yesterday closed as an inside bar so the order was not filled. Does this now invalidate the setup? The order is still currently open.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #29,523
  • May 9, 2009 3:52am May 9, 2009 3:52am
The AH is showing 200 pips down already?? www.xe.com That blows
  • #29,524
  • May 9, 2009 4:21am May 9, 2009 4:21am
I am really thankful for giving myself the right to be wrong.

Why do I appreciate this right so much?

- being right or being wrong does not matter while looking at one case,
- it is the money management and sound judgement that keeps our acc. alive,
- I try to post here also when I suspect that I am more wrong than right
because I surely will receive a feedback from other people who can propably be also wrong in some cases,
but see it from different perspective and will point at things I did not take into account,
- when I know that I am propably wrong I do not close for the arguments and I am willing to read and trying to understand,
- it is much more efficient learning process - to behave like a child rather than an all knowing man whose reputation will suffer from asking for advice (It is really not easy for me),
- small childreen learn quickly becuase they trust simple rules and they do not need to invent their own way,
- in my age it is rather difficult to show humility but when I am wise enough and keep my emotions strongly I receive good advice for free here, and it is only my choice to utilize it or not,

- allowing myself being wrong results in taking loses quickly resetting my mind and gaining profits instead of trying to be right for any money,

It was easy to write all that but it is not so easy to follow always - that is why I am still on demo, and J16 PF (Thanks the God for that forum !).

Have a great Sunday

Peter
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #29,525
  • Edited 8:18am May 9, 2009 5:33am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting mbqb11
Hi Paul

This happens where
I really want to thank you for taking the time to do this Mike. It was a real confidence builder because I saw a lot of the same stuff you did. I did end up taking the EURAUD and pulling my order because it didn't breach. I'm never concerned about whether I take the same trades as a mentor, just that if I take them, I take them having seen exactly the problems that he saw.

I have seen threads on FF that are active where people are basically teaching exactly what is taught here but in a bullying and aggressive manner. The patience and time given by the seniors to this thread, and the respect you all show is remarkable and very much appreciated.

A few other thoughts based on some of the recent posts on the thread...

Regarding pre-breach entries, I have seen little benefit from doing it. A key part of the pinbar setup is when the previous day's low is breached. (for a bearish PB). Without seeing this it's almost like taking a trade 6 hours before daily close because you think it might end up being a pin bar later.

That's not to attack the method or being aggressive per se. But those I have seen who make retrace entries before the breach work, do so when there is confirming higher and lower timeframe action. For example, a weekly BUOB that retraces on the daily and gives a pin. Or a daily pin bar that retraces and forms a good solid 4H pin. It's still not for me, but I don't see many seniors playing blind retraces without any form of confluence. As Jarroo keeps pointing out, when that pin is breached, price often shoots off hard. The breach is the rocket fuel. If you play before the breach the low of the pin can act as resistance and actually block your trade.

If you are desperately determined to be aggressive and not just play the bar as Jim/Mike recommend then you can still play the breach but with a tighter stop, say around the second eye, thus giving you a higher pip value if you're using %R MM. And then make sure you get your stop to BE super quick so that you don't get taken out on a whipsaw. Study Jarroo's charts. But this is more of a finesse technique.

These are just my observations from testing and demoing. I'm not live yet so take it all with a pinch of salt. But don't take with a pinch of salt Jim and Mike's experience and the fact that they don't play aggressive entries on bars period.

Apologies if it got a little rant-y.....
  • #29,526
  • May 9, 2009 6:06am May 9, 2009 6:06am
Quoting consisTracy
Hi
I'm new here.
I notice mike has mentioned often that the pin on the EU/Aus didn't close as a pin - This is true for my GFT feed which closes at GMT But it actually is a pin on my FXPRO feed - closes closer to NY close. Which feed could carry more weight? Do we want both to be pinbars? If there is enough confluence and a good pin bar on one feed but only a nearly pin bar on another feed does that make it a sub-par trade.
Thanks in advance

Tracy

PS I am really really really loving this stuff! Thanks so much for all your wisdom.
Good question, my advice would be to choose one feed that closes around the New York close and trade off that. The pin bar on the E/A closed as a pin bar on my FXDD feed so I have an order in, although it hasn't broke yet. I dont care about news or NFP or anything, as this is daily TF so a 100 pip spike wont change the PA much.

Regarding drawing PPZ's I used to draw them all over my chart, and I think its good for new people to do this for practice as you get good at quickly seeing them. However now I wait for a daily/weekly PA bar, I then look to see PPZ around that area by zooming out on daily and weekly, looking right back for years. Then I look for minor S/R like bar lows/highs that might cause the trade to stall, within the last month or two (using daily). It keeps tha chart clean and the zones are always fresh.

Below are 2 charts that I created when looking at the EUR/AUD pin bar on daily on Thursday. I zoomed out to look for PPZ and found major resistance at 1.7700 from 2004. Then I looked locally at the possible minor stall points (my second chart).

Have a nice weekend

Mark
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #29,527
  • May 9, 2009 6:36am May 9, 2009 6:36am
Quoting mbqb11
Hi Paul

This happens where people get so emotionally involved in the learning process that it almost becomes blinding that they might not be seeing everything. Also people want to be perfection into trading which is also not a perfect thing.

Instead of going on a rant here I am simply going to outline each trade you posted.

Hope this sheds some light

Mike
Mike, this was simply an AWESOME post!! For me, (and I hope for others), this speaks directly to the concept of why we should be looking for reasons NOT to take a trade rather than reasons TO take one.

I've only been studying J16 for what now...a little more than a month or so? When I started and began to learn of each "individual" element.. i.e. pins, location, confluence... etc., I found that I was "eager" to go find examples of "Each One" and thus once found, the other elements needed lost some (if not all) of my attention. I think this is a perfectly natural thing when learning.

I realized what I was doing fairly quickly. I was looking for reasons TO take a trade. So when I'd see a nice pin, confluence or location I started "Looking" for "More" reasons to take the trade. For me, this opened the "emotional door of excitement" and I was "convincing" myself those other elements actually existed when in fact (and now hindsight) they did not.

Please forgive me guys, within the thousands upon thousands of posts I've read to date, I can't remember which of you said it first but 2 days after I realized what I was doing, I came across a post that mentioned we should be looking for reasons NOT to trade. This immediately resonated with me thus confirmed my personal theory.

Since that point, whenever I see a "potential" setup I ask myself one simple question.... What are the reasons for NOT taking this trade?

We all "want" to trade. I think it's simply human nature that when we "want" to do something, it's very easy to find reasons to do so. When we look for reasons NOT to do something we "want", for me it's like a filter that adds clarity. When I can't answer the above question for myself, I have a TRADE...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #29,528
  • May 9, 2009 7:50am May 9, 2009 7:50am
It's nice to get back from a wreck dive, on a Saturday, to find gold nuggets lying around.

Once again, Thank you Jim and Mike.
  • #29,529
  • May 9, 2009 8:02am May 9, 2009 8:02am
Quoting mbqb11
Hi Paul

This happens where people get so emotionally involved in the learning process that it almost becomes blinding that they might not be seeing everything. Also people want to be perfection into trading which is also not a perfect thing.

Instead of going on a rant here I am simply going to outline each trade you posted. THere are certain things like taking 4 trades in one day going into NFP that alone I recommend against. Manipulation and thinking the market is out to get you will prevent you from moving forward. This market is way to big...
Thats pure trading art.Mike you are a maestro.
I took the Eur/Aud pin cause in my feed it broke but it retraced so hard that i didnt give it the chance to even get close to my stoploss
Thanks for the time...
  • #29,530
  • May 9, 2009 8:12am May 9, 2009 8:12am
Quoting consisTracy
Hi
I'm new here.
I notice mike has mentioned often that the pin on the EU/Aus didn't close as a pin - This is true for my GFT feed which closes at GMT But it actually is a pin on my FXPRO feed - closes closer to NY close. Which feed could carry more weight? Do we want both to be pinbars? If there is enough confluence and a good pin bar on one feed but only a nearly pin bar on another feed does that make it a sub-par trade.
Thanks in advance

Tracy

PS I am really really really loving this stuff! Thanks so much for all your wisdom.
Hey Tracy and welcome to the thread.

Regarding which bar to take, price is price. It's our brokers that aggregate it differently depending on close time to show us the bars. I personally have no problem if I think we are at a key support/resistance area to look at a few feeds to see if I get the pin I want.

There are a couple of things to bear in mind. I wouldn't use multiple feed confirmation as confluence. It doesn't carry more weight if it's showing on several feeds, nor is one feed better than the other. Location is the key to price action. With the EURAUD as Markmm showed, it was at such a good location that I looked to fxpro (not my usual feed) to see if I could find a pin, where my main Alpari feed didn't give me one (the late breaking news from NY blew it on my feed).

I'd never check 3 feeds a night on every pair because that would fry my brain and simple is always best in trading in my opinion. I'd also try and stick to the feeds that close around NY close. I wouldn't want any of the Asian session on my bar and I think there are some that close around 5 hours into that session, which I would definitely avoid.

The general rule of thumb, especially if you're new, is to trade it as you see it on your broker. Don't worry about missing out, there'll always be more trades. It's a danger, especially when very new, to look for trades everywhere and start to curve fit what you see. Multiple feeds can exacerbate this problem. When you've had a good enough run at it then you can perhaps look at multiple feeds now and again if the location is good, and also at things like combining bars to make 2 day pins. All techniques that work, they just fry your head at first because of all the options.

Good luck and well done for jumping in and asking questions. It really does make all the difference here in my opinion.
  • #29,531
  • May 9, 2009 10:52am May 9, 2009 10:52am
Just going over the charts on a lazy Sat am and couldnt help but notice this head&shoulder setup I know recent trend is up this weeks candle bearish,look at thurs & friday day candle combined gives a bear pin i am not saying this is a trend changer but worth taking note! Btw some really excellent post everyone
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  • #29,532
  • May 9, 2009 12:09pm May 9, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting james16


did i miss something or am i just missunderstanding tex's post?

brutal day?

Hi James,

I guess you misunderstood my post. There was a trader who was ranting about all the "perfect" setups that lost. I was sharing my thoughts about why it happened and how to deal with days like that.

Thanks again for all you have contributed.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #29,533
  • May 9, 2009 1:00pm May 9, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Hi James,

I guess you misunderstood my post. There was a trader who was ranting about all the "perfect" setups that lost. I was sharing my thoughts about why it happened and how to deal with days like that.

Thanks again for all you have contributed.
Yeah but I think what Jim was saying was the setups werent actual setups because the trader entered before the break of the bar, therefore trading before the PA was established. I would only say a setup failed if it broke the pin bar (for example) by say 10-20 pips then reverses right back to the end of the nose and passes it by 10-20 pips. Very unusual if you are on high timeframe and the location is optimal.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #29,534
  • May 9, 2009 1:06pm May 9, 2009 1:06pm
Watching and waiting . . . there are a lot of pairs at critical areas with clear divergence. Let them finish their moves and wait for price action to pull the trigger. You'll win every time. I am saying this to all you newbies and myself as well . . .
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #29,535
  • May 9, 2009 1:13pm May 9, 2009 1:13pm
Here's another one. Australian yen classic bearish divergence (higher high in price and lower highs on MACD) getting close to the 365 ema (blue line). Come on baby give us a signal . . .
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #29,536
  • May 9, 2009 1:21pm May 9, 2009 1:21pm
Alright . . . last one. Kiwi daily. Again, bearish divergence. And getting to an area where it has reversed a few times in the past. Let's watch, see, and hopefully play . . .
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #29,537
  • May 9, 2009 1:38pm May 9, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting Flem26
Alright . . . last one. Kiwi daily. Again, bearish divergence. And getting to an area where it has reversed a few times in the past. Let's watch, see, and hopefully play . . .
Hey Flem26 good eye that 6000 to 6150 nice level for some pa action most definitelyhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #29,538
  • May 9, 2009 1:41pm May 9, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting albchr
Mike, this was simply an AWESOME post!! For me, (and I hope for others), this speaks directly to the concept of why we should be looking for reasons NOT to take a trade rather than reasons TO take one.

I've only been studying J16 for what now...a little more than a month or so? When I started and began to learn of each "individual" element.. i.e. pins, location, confluence... etc., I found that I was "eager" to go find examples of "Each One" and thus once found, the other elements needed lost some (if not all) of my attention. I think...
I very much agree with this post Christopher. It got me thinking too. This thought process is actually how my trading became structured and consistent. These rules of when or why not to trade ended up really creating my trading plan. Sure it is still discretion but repeatable structured discretion for me. As much as it ticks people off to hear it trading the way we do it here is rather simple after some time the rest is getting out of your own way.

Thanks for all the other responses i enjoyed reading them all.

Mike
  • #29,539
  • May 9, 2009 1:46pm May 9, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting mbqb11
the rest is getting out of your own way.

Thanks for all the other responses i enjoyed reading them all.

Mike
Getting out of your own way . . . that's it. Don't know how many times I have gotten in the way and fumbled the football. Definitely a work in process for me . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #29,540
  • May 9, 2009 1:51pm May 9, 2009 1:51pm
amen!
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