james16 Chart Thread

I took no trades today. But it looks like the Gbp/Chf was the winner. Very nice retrace test on the break of the BEOB.

I'm still in a few: Cad, Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy.

Was there a break of that PB on the Eur/Aud on your feed tj?

Sorry not at my home computer with all my regular charts.

You got some great posts g_j_. Good stuff for all to read.

I like your avatar also. That's what its all about.

Lol i just meant he had a way bigger account i would stick with what i do it is where i am most comfortable

Mike,

Did you take the GBPCHF ? When I saw that in my head I thought to myself - That's a really Mike type trade.

Am I right ?

(I hope I am right )

Nope daily was to sloppy. 4 hr had some nice late in they day fri action decided to stay out being fri and late

Mike

Hi,

I've been around for a while. Just thought I'd post some trades that should have worked out, but didn't. Days like these make me think that spending years in front of a computer screen studying/perfecting trading is quite pointless unless you have a $200k account. (I started writing a couple paragraphs as to why, but decided against including it since it would take up too much space. And to avoid the hassle of counter-arguments. Let's just leave it as my opinion.) On to the charts.

Last night, here's how things looked:

CHF: Bullish
USD: Bullish
GBP: Bearish
AUD: Bearish
Gold/Silver: Bearish
Oil: Bearish
Dow Futures (and other stocks): Bearish
Soybeans/Grains: Bearish

Reasons:

GBP/CHF: Beob, top of a wedge, 150 EMA
AUD/CHF: Bounce off of a major PPZ, incomplete pinbar, MACD divergence
USD/CHF: Daily pinbar/beob off of 150 EMA, Broke below the channel and PPZ

GBP/USD: Beob
USD/SGD: Pinbar at a vital PPZ
EUR/AUD: Nice Pinbar off of weekly 150 EMA and a vital PPZ and round number.
GBP/JPY: Pinbar. Could be viewed as a double top. MACD Divergence.

Dow Futures: Two-Day pinbar, swing high, 150 EMA, round number.
SOYBEANS: Two-Bar pinbar, swing high.
CORN: Top of a wedge.
GOLD: Great pinbar at the top of the channel, PPZ (round number). Formed a 4H pin inside the daily pinbar. *see chart*
SILVER: Nice pinbar at a swing high, PPZ, round number.
OIL: Best Setup. Great pinbar, 150 EMA, top of a trendline (wedge), swing high, PPZ, MACD Divergence. Upon retracing, it also formed a 4H pin off of the PPZ inside the daily. Can't get better than that. *see chart*

I mentioned a few without great setups mainly because they impact or follow other markets. There was a lot of correlation here.
Also, many of these were due for a nice correction after a good run.

So much for all those hours analyzing and planning these trades. I was picky and chose mainly oil, gbp/jpy, silver, and gold. Took the trades on a retracement of the pin, since I don't have a large account and wanted to decrease a potential loss.
So much for price being the leading indicator. Who in their right mind would buy into PA on OIL like that? With all of that confluence!? Same thing for the other markets.

Since everyone always gives a reason as to why price acted the way it did, I will chime in and say that I see only one explanation. MANIPULATION.

I've looked it over, and that's the only possibility that I can see.
Profit taking is one thing; but when all of the markets have this kind of correlation which points in one direction, and then it reverses for no reason, then manipulation can be the only answer.

I've attached some pictures of what I was talking about.

-Paul

Charts.

Hi Paul

This happens where people get so emotionally involved in the learning process that it almost becomes blinding that they might not be seeing everything. Also people want to be perfection into trading which is also not a perfect thing.

Instead of going on a rant here I am simply going to outline each trade you posted. THere are certain things like taking 4 trades in one day going into NFP that alone I recommend against. Manipulation and thinking the market is out to get you will prevent you from moving forward. This market is way to big to manipulate in the long term. But lets stick to the charts to keep it short and simple.

Firstly Gold- This pin is in heavy traffic. Created no space away from previous price. This means that there is going to immediatly be problems below the bar. As we can see directly under our pin there is a lot of congestion. So lack of space makes prior highs and lows always a problem. Where does price stop? Well at the prior high marked with horizontal pink line. This is an easy no trade in my book. For those that trade and gets stops to b/e quick, they would have their stops to b/e ASAP at this point. This is a classic case of seeing a bar that is a beautiful pin but disregarding the importance of what is around it.

Silver - Better in terms of space to move. Always like to see a better close then this barely closing within prior bar. Remember a pin is NOT valid until the low of the bar breaks. The low was never even close to breaking here, thus for most of us no trade. To take every trade on a retracement in order to increase your position size is not wrong, but one has to know that a pin is not technically valid till that low breaks. This is a problem with smaller accounts b/c we want the most and biggest gains we can get to hit that finish line quicker. No chart needed here

gbp/jpy - again another case of no break = no trade. This is the prime reason I don't play retraces. I am not comforatble with the fact of getting in before something is confirmed. Doesn't make it wrong, but one has to udnerstand it. I still would not have traded this bar as I spoke about yest to many. Small nose made me stay away from it. Those that did, it was a case like gold, you are trading into many bar lows stop has to get to b/e ASAP. Also there is no macd divergence as MACD is making a lower high and price is lower high as well(see chart with trendlines). We need price to get higher then that first high and MACD remain lower (which may happen and will look out for).

gbp/chf - This one caught my attention the most, but I passed on it with friday/nfp and all the traffic underneath. Notice the HUGE BEOB, with a close below the 1.7000 big round number. This was a sstrong bearish sign. Again I passed on this b/c I knew my stops would have to get to b/e very quickly and I tend to wait out for the more clear ones on the higher timeframes and save that for my lower timeframes. Big Bars = much more clear indication and information in my opinon. It is something I constantly stress. Ex gbp/jpy = small bar showing less signficance then a big bar like gbp/chf

aud/chf - as you said not a pinbar not even proxy availability = pass

usd/chf - This is a beob, as a pin can not have a lower low then the previous bar. We want to see BEOBs up at swing highs, this was stuck completly sideways with a less then stellar close. Some would say a tip off of a trendline, to me this would be an easy pass.

Gbp/usd - another one that caught my attention at the 1.5 mark. Negatives for me on a BEOB is when it doesn't close below prior bar low and even more importantly it failed to close below the 1.5 big round number mark. Price never broke the low of the BEOB(which it would have been trading into a lot of highs), so this is a no trade and not a failed bar, just never activated

Usd/sgd - pinbar swing low, not a huge nose in comparison to such a large trending move down. I like to see a big bar when trying to completly reverse(see above about big bars = better information for me). Bar never triggered the high = no trade . Again not a failed bar, never activated.

Eur/aud- this was the one that I was eyeing up most. This was off a strong ppz at 1.75 nice long nose, swing low and move to room up. Problems i had is when the falling knife is occuring I pay careful attention to the open and close. Notice the close could not close withing the previous bars body, but sort of hung just within the prior bar barely with in the low. I have talked about this previously on this thread, something that throw up a red flag. Again bar never broke the high = no trade never activated. Some may choose to keep their orders above the high of the pin considering fridays action

corn - assuming you are speaking about futures(i am looking at #cn9) this is not a pin as the open and close are not within previous bar. Could be a pin by proxy, but again never broke the low so never triggered = no pinbar. So not a failed trade. If it was a pin, it was coming into a strong ppz around 400 stops would have had to be moved quick here

Soybean - Interesting chart. BEOB at a swing high around the 1100 mark. If beob had a much lower close say engulfing 2-3 bars prior, that could be one hell of a nice trade. Price never broke the low so no trade. May still work out with a sell below that low, coming into the prior lows and highs near 1085-1075 range

Oil- decent pin as the close barely made it within the prior bar, maybe diff feeds it was more clear. Pin never brokle the low so no trade. Playing a bar like this on the retrace is near impossible as the close is the Left eye/high, so retracing makes little sense to me. If it did break the low we would have expected 54.67 multiple bar highs to be the trouble area.


So I hope this helps. Many of these trades were no trades based on location, and those that still thought of them as good trades could have avoided them by waiting for breaks. Always remember a bar is not valid till the low/high breaks. So going through this I don't see any failed setups/PA etc. I know you sound frustrated b/c of a possibly bad day of trading, but this should be an educational process until you get the time under your belt(ie 3 months consec profit demo, small live, etc etc as outline by James). The more time you spend all this stuff jumps out and will make the process easier slowly. Be patient and keep at it and post away if you ever have more questions.

Hope this sheds some light

Mike

Rac, it's a few weeks old, but I really like this post. I have to ask you and jaroo and others who set their stops to BE quickly (30-40 pips): What do you do when your entry is triggered, but there is no hard break? It never gets to a 30 pip gain. Do you get out quickly with a small loss, or do you wait it out and risk losing your whole original stop? Jaroo has said that without a hard break, that's proof that the setup was not A+, but you've still got to get out of it somehow. Thanks.

This is great Mike. This just reinforces what we look for. A great teaching post. Thank you.

I was going to answer it a little shorter, but yours as always is excellent.


I would say . . tell me which PA setup broke not the ones that didn't. And who told you that taking a PA setup before the break was a good thing to do?

Next. If the PA setup broke, did you do the following trade management:

James16:

THIS IS CRITICAL.

WE MUST LEARN TO:

Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.

If we know its there, we have several choices.

1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.

[quote=mbqb11;2722452]Hi Paul

This happens where people get so emotionally involved in the learning process that it almost becomes blinding that they might not be seeing everything. Also people want to be perfection into trading which is also not a perfect thing.


Awesome Post Mike, This is going in my notes page. Well said and very informative.

Thanks,

Jim

Hi J16 Traders!

I know it was a brutal day for all the pinbars, engulfing bars and the rest as signals. I certainly can empathize as I, as well as any trader who has been around for more than oh say 3 days lol , have had days like that.

I'll just throw out these nuggets that I've learned after sucking on enough lemons.

First, price makes news about 95% of the time. NFP days are one of the few exceptions, especially nowadays when there is so much uncertainty in the economic horizon. Basically, if news gets interpreted a certain way on these rare days, perfect technical patterns will get blasted and with all the stops getting run it magnifies the effect.
On these days, I've learned that having an open position going in to the news is basically having an opinion or forecast about the upcoming data. This is just plain wrong, imvho. Not only is the data unsure, BUT THE MARKETS REACTION TO THIS DATA IS EVEN MORE UNSURE. And that reaction is by far and away the most important thing to understand.
Second, in some instances those trades had a high correlation factor. There are too many to list from yesterday, but trust me alot of those signals overlapped. Having at least a vague notion about the recent correlations between multiple positions on a high volatility day can be a life saver.
Finally, rather than stew about how much money a trader lost, or how "manipulated" the markets are or anything else, look for things to learn from these experiences. Experienced traders don't learn nearly as much from wins as they do from losses. These instances will define and galvanize your judgement in the future.

Best of luck.

did i miss something or am i just missunderstanding tex's post?

brutal day?

thank you mike. i know this took some time.

[quote=jarroo;
I'm still in a few: Cad, Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy.[/quote]

hi jarroo, i should also still be in the eu/yen but i cant seem to keep them open longer term!!?? what has been your management untill now? do you only moves your stops at the end of the day, or go to smaller TFs ?
cheers
jon

Quick question to Jarroo and others:

Once price hits our initial 30pip target and we sell the first half, do we instantly need to put our BE stop in place?

A) WITH NORMAL ORDERS ON MT4: The only way I see that is say: buy 2 microlots 10 pips above the pin, SL(1) @ -30pips, TP(1) @ +30pips. Once the TP(1) hit sell both lots, AND buy 1 microlot at that price with a new SL(2) @ BE, THEN trail the SL.

B) WITH AN EA: I believe the swiss army EA from forex-tsd could automate it so as to only sell one microlot at TP(1) @ +30pips and place the SL @ BE instantly...

...it really all hangs on how quickly we need to move our stop to BE....?

yes and it always will.

it bothers me that so many people here seem to be taking these set ups before a break.

a pin bar IS NOT a pin bar until it has broken in the correct direction.

until that happens it just LOOKS like a pin bar.

if it does not happen then it NEVER was a pin bar.

same with an outside bar.

if you play these bars on retraces before a break your a hero when it works and a goat when it does not.

why not just wait for 3 to 5 great set ups a month and take a break on them and be a hero 90 percent of the time and make the goat trades be a small loss at the most?

breakeven is hero status to my account and always will be.

im actually proud of myself when i see a 30,40 or 50 pip move come back and stop me out at breakeven on a daily chart.

i dont give a rats ass if it shoots off for 200 pips and leaves me behind.

i only give a rats ass when i screw up and hope for something instead of doing what i know works.

so what works?

coming to the realization that a certain percentage of those 30 pip moves where i moved my stop to breakeven will shoot off to 200 pips BEFORE stopping me out at breakeven.

I will say it again for the umteenth time.

when 200 pips is worth your current yeary salary this will no longer be hard for you.

IM NOT WITHOUT EMPATHY FOR ANY OF YOU. I HAVE BEEN IN YOUR SHOES.

WHY DO YOU THINK I STARTED THIS THREAD 4 YEARS AGO?

THIS THREAD WAS STARTED TO HELP PEOPLE ALL THOSE YEARS AGO GET PAST THE VERY SAME PROBLEMS THAT NEW PEOPLE TO THIS THREAD HAVE NOW.

A few of them are still here but not many. Thats the truth.

The road is clearly marked and available to any that wish to travel it but for some reason most people take the road that is also clearly marked and leads to a cliff.

It doesnt matter though. Most will walk up to it, clearly see its a cliff and jump off anyway.

I have jumped off that very same cliff more than any of you and the 50th jump is no different than the 1st.

Step away from the cliff, turn around and take the other road please.

Jim

Thanks James

I will automate instantly selling the first half & moving my SL to BE as I don't have time to watch the daily pins unfold throughout the day.

Cheers

Adam

Hello there I'm a fan of this tread for a while, never post, but I like to say that this is a great tread and I highly respect all of you here but this last post make me sai, thankyou Sr. Mr James16(Jim), for helping others that are in the new stages of this non stoping learning road, thanks again and god bless all.

Carlos A. Fernandez