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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #29,441
  • Edited 8:21pm May 7, 2009 8:11pm | Edited 8:21pm
Like many others here, I am seeing lots of possible opportunities. My favorite setups are EUR/AUD and GBP/USD.

The EUR/AUD is my favorite: This nice long-legged pinbar hit a PPZ at a round number that is visible on my monthly chart. It also has touched a 61.8 fib on my chart and I believe I see bullish divergence. Assuming the pinbar breaks on the up-side, I do not see any obstacles until a PPZ near 1.8. That's about 140 pips if I am seeing the chart correctly. After I studied today's charts and read the forum, I am seeing a few other folks who agree that this is the most appealing setup of the day.

The GBP/USD BEOB is my second favorite. It crosses what I see as a monthly PPZ and it's hard to find a better round number than 1.5 . I am also seeing some bearish divergence on this one. From my interpretation of the charts, this one seems to have a nice amount of space. I do not expect to see any support until price reaches a PPZ near 1.4850. That's about 80 pips away from my entry point.

There are some other decent looking setups I have filtered through today. I jotted down some reasons why I do not consider these as A+ worthy as the two mentioned above:

 

  1. EUR/GBP - too much traffic
  2. GBP/JPY - too much traffic
  3. CAD/JPY - too much traffic
  4. GBP/CHF - too much traffic and the location was not at a strong PPZ on my chart (only a minor PPZ)
  5. NZD/CHF - my broker does not offer this pair
  6. EUR/CAD - not as much space as EUR/AUD and GBP/USD

The EUR/CAD is actually my third favorite setup. If not for the EUR/AUD and GBP/USD, I am pretty sure that I would trade this one. I am surprised at how picky I can be when I see 7 or 8 price action bars at PPZs on the same day! Some of the pairs I have considered as having "too much traffic" would have normally been a lot more tempting (probably even tradeable for a trigger-happy rookie like me). I have a feeling that if I learn to be this picky when I see only one chart with PA at a PPZ, I will stand a good chance of making it in this business.

I am very excited about what I have seen today and am trying not to let my emotions get the best of me. I have seen how that can cause problems in the past.

I heard about the "Bank Stress Test" results today and I think the results are complete BS. I have a feeling the markets will agree with me, but I do not want to get into fundamentals too much on this thread.

I have already read quite a few opinions about today's charts and am curious to see what others think? Are you trading today's bars? Why? What are your favorite setups?
What price areas do you see as possible trouble spots?

I know that some of the senior members here do not want to have too much influence on decisions made by rookies like myself (and I understand your reasons completely), but I think it would be great if you could tell us your favorite setup(s) of the day (and whether you traded any of them) after the dust settles.

Sorry for the long-winded post, but I have been trying to learn the methods of this thread for more than six months and I do not remember seeing a day like today.

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  • #29,442
  • May 7, 2009 8:24pm May 7, 2009 8:24pm
Hi Pipgator, I'm liking the GBPUSD and EURAUD too.

I've put an order for EURAUD Pin, and is re-evaluating the GBPUSD trade.

IMO I'm maybe too cautious in spotting danger area, I scroll to the far left to find a bar high that will somehow block the price to move downward.

in EURAUD I seriously watch on the 1.7905 bar low to the left, and in GBPUSD I'm planning to take half at 1.4900, I found a minor PPZ at that level, and then move the stop for the other half to 1.4960, so that I have a 60 pips SL and a BE trade if the SL got hit.

Maybe I'm too fast in thightening my stops, but I don't like to see winners goes to drawdown, a hard break is all I need.

comments please my friends

Thanks.

Marcel
  • #29,443
  • May 7, 2009 8:33pm May 7, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting jarroo
I like the BEOB of Daily Gbp/Usd because the swing is higher then the swing Low of the BUOB Daily Eur/Gbp. Plus the big Round Number of 1.5000. Let's see how she breaks. (If she breaks.)

Jim
are you concerned about NFP friday?
  • #29,444
  • May 7, 2009 8:59pm May 7, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting dengzhi
are you concerned about NFP friday?
If it breaks tonight, I'd play it. But I won't tomorrow morning because of the NFP. It will probably hang around the 1.5000 until that time.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #29,445
  • May 7, 2009 9:02pm May 7, 2009 9:02pm
Nfp days I stay out unless something is already in motion hangin loose till monday, the g/u me personally if i was 2 play i wouldnt wait 4 break of days low i see 1.5000 as the key I would scale down to 15mn and watch to confirm resistance and catch the start right there tight s/l this could run to days low and bouce right up who knows nasty jag april 30 right there, sorry cant post chart right now e/a breaks lookin @17915 area starters 1.7700 support is key I would be lookin for pa to get early jump I enjoy early entrys at these major ppzs they can really cut you s/l size down and provide u protection at the same time.
  • #29,446
  • May 7, 2009 9:14pm May 7, 2009 9:14pm
marcelnyo,

I have been practicing the drawing of PPZs and am seeing lots of improvements, but I feel that I have to get a lot more practice before I can be as consistent as many others here. One of my biggest challenges right now is trying to find possible "trouble spots" or areas where price might turn against you. As you probably know, these are areas that james16 considers important (we must recognize them) and he highly recommends taking profit, moving to break even, trading after price passes these areas, etc. If you look at some of my recent posts, you will see me asking questions geared towards trying to improve my ability to spot these areas.

If we draw suport/resistance lines at every high and low, our charts will be completely covered and we will not see any opportunities to trade. If we do not draw enough lines, we will take too many risks and blow our accounts. I suppose that if we are to chose one mistake over the other, it is safer to have too many "areas of concern" than not enough "areas of concern".

If you are concerned with the 1.79 region, than I think it would be wise to make adjustments to your trade at that point (of course you understand that this advice is coming from a beginner). This region easily falls within the 30-40 pip range where james16, jarroo and others usually take profits and/or move to BE.

I zoomed out as far as I could on my daily chart and was able to find a low of 1.7902 on May 5 2009, a high of 1.7912 on Oct 3 2008 and a high of 1.7915 on Oct 2 2008. I may have missed some other reactions of price near this area. Is this reason enough to consider the 1.79 region as an area of concern? I do not know. Maybe someone else can shed some light on this.

When I look at my weekly chart for this pair, the area near 1.8 jumps out at me as a "price flip" area. It seems to be more important than 1.79 IMHO. Also, the area near 1.76 jumps out as an area where price has bounced (even on my monthly chart). According to my interpretation of the charts, 1.8 and 1.76 are more important and more powerful than 1.79.

I guess the ultimate answer to your question (and my questions) has a lot to do with your style as a trader. (Thanks to TiaForex for helping me realize that trading style is a very important factor in determining whether a setup is tradeable.) Do you prefer to eliminate the possibility of a loss very quickly like james16, jarroo and others? Do you prefer to hold on to your positions and/or only take A+++ setups like Mike and/or Josh?

I too am curious to see how other people respond to our questions. It seems that we both have much to learn.





Quoting marcelnyo
Hi Pipgator, I'm liking the GBPUSD and EURAUD too.

I've put an order for EURAUD Pin, and is re-evaluating the GBPUSD trade.

IMO I'm maybe too cautious in spotting danger area, I scroll to the far left to find a bar high that will somehow block the price to move downward.

in EURAUD I seriously watch on the 1.7905 bar low to the left, and in GBPUSD I'm planning to take half at 1.4900, I found a minor PPZ at that level, and then move the stop for the other half to 1.4960, so that I have a 60 pips SL and a BE trade if the SL got hit.

Maybe I'm too...
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  • #29,447
  • May 7, 2009 9:25pm May 7, 2009 9:25pm
Hi Pipgator,

That's a great answer, now if I had a good night sleep maybe I'd be able to write more than what I did... lol. but that's the gist of it. I guess I'm more Jaroo like, I hate drawdowns and I went for perfect profits... will this be a good habit to maintain I don't know, but yes I guess keeping the 30-40 pips profit and tighten stops is more like my style, I dunno whether it is based on fear or knowledge of a single bar low to the left, but it is what works for me and what I'm comfortable of.

Curious to see how others think.
  • #29,448
  • May 7, 2009 9:26pm May 7, 2009 9:26pm
Hey pigator this is all about individuals findin there way and comfort zones me personally I just mark major wk ppzs usually everthing coincides but always aware of the smaller tf ppzs as snags.I get to b/e asap cant stand losing like Jarro says the good ones break hard and fast so why mess around again this will differ with personalities. Those wk ppzs really are the bomb!!
  • #29,449
  • May 7, 2009 9:34pm May 7, 2009 9:34pm
A good example is g/u right now that wk ppz 1.5000 its the key to this trade in my eyes last hour high was 1.5006 get in at 1.5000 20 pip s/l watchin from 15 min tf trade is at b/e plus 1 and your off and runnin cause of that wk ppz!!
  • #29,450
  • May 7, 2009 9:40pm May 7, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting KissFan
Hey Mr.T! Good to see you again. I have really appreciated your insight over the past couple of years.

K.I.S.S.
Hey bro... thanks for the kind words... I get pretty busy and am hardly on here anymore, including trying to get some trading in for my signal clients which seems to be getting harder and harder these days. Now I see why James quit the signal business a long time ago... LOL...

Anyway, keep it up... nice to see you're still on the forums... that's a good sign...
Mr. Trend
  • #29,451
  • May 7, 2009 9:59pm May 7, 2009 9:59pm
Not seeing a lot of talk on USDJPY the last day or two....scared off by the PPZ above 9950?

EURJPY suffering similar indecision.....or is it consolidation??
  • #29,452
  • May 7, 2009 10:05pm May 7, 2009 10:05pm
Decided today to check the charts and do analysis prior to catching up on the thread. I'm in Oz and using Alpari UK demo, daily close at 8am Oz time, it's around noon here now and between other things i've spent the morning checking the charts.
I'm guessing that most of what i'm about to post is already in the thread today so my apologies but this is for my growth as well as for comment.
My stuff is daily only unless otherwise mentioned, here goes.

GBPUSD BeOB (after PB and IB) off 1.5200 and back thru 1.5000. At a minor swing high. Divergence using MACD.
Sell 1.4932 Stop 1.5095 (61 Fib of beob) TP 1.4840 (above pror PPZ).

EURAUD Didn't close as a PB but liked the location and test of the 1.7650 area which is also the monthly 61 fib ret from july 07-oct 08, also divergence on MACD. Shame about the PB thing though!!!

EURGBP BuOB Great bar!! Minor swing low, tested 0.88 area + MACD Divergence. Space not so good, seeing too many issues to the left.

AUDUSD No PA bar on daily PB on H4, Price around weekly 61 fib ret (sep 21-oct 26, 08) and weekly 365ema.
Nearing daily TL, resistance. but 0.7500 not far away
Just watching at the moment not entering anything using H4.

I'm only attaching 2 chart, and will go back and check last 18 hours of posts.

Gov
Attached Images
  • #29,453
  • May 7, 2009 10:16pm May 7, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting Jduester
I've got my order placed for EUR/AUD. Still looking at GBP/JPY but leaning towards no. I like the USD/SGD bar, but I don't even have PPZ up on the minors yet... haven't traded it before.

As for the GU and GChf, I like the formations. My main G/CHF concern was that my profit targets are based on R:R, which would need a substantial move to reach 1:1... on GU, I am wondering why it stopped at 1.52.... the PPZ was at 1.50 or at 1.53(ish)... So that one makes me wonder if we are not simply retracing back to 1.50 (after this 4 month 'breakout' above...

In regards to "why here" .. Look to the left, theres a gap. 5150.
  • #29,454
  • May 7, 2009 10:23pm May 7, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting jack.canadia
In regards to "why here" .. Look to the left, theres a gap. 5150.
Here it is in MT4.. I saw it in your accucharts as well.
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  • #29,455
  • May 7, 2009 10:55pm May 7, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting jarroo
I like the BEOB of Daily Gbp/Usd because the swing is higher then the swing Low of the BUOB Daily Eur/Gbp. Plus the big Round Number of 1.5000.
I mean to say it this way :

I like the BEOB of Daily Gbp/Usd because the high of the swing High is deeper then the Low of the swing Low of the BUOB Daily Eur/Gbp.

Am I making sense at all?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #29,456
  • Edited 11:31pm May 7, 2009 11:03pm | Edited 11:31pm
Quoting PipGator
marcelnyo,

I have been practicing the drawing of PPZs and am seeing lots of improvements, but I feel that I have to get a lot more practice before I can be as consistent as many others here. One of my biggest challenges right now is trying to find possible "trouble spots" or areas where price might turn against you. As you probably know, these are areas that james16 considers important (we must recognize them) and he highly recommends taking profit, moving to break even, trading after price passes these areas, etc. If you look at some of my...
Pipgator you ask some great questions and pose some good concerns as we all have to do.

Concerning PPZ levels. A great way to start is on the weekly time frame around the big (Bold) round numbers. Like the 2000s, 1500s, 18500, 150.00, 145.00, etc.

Mike talks about these "Extra special" round numbers all the time. And I give them due respect because of Mike. In a sense, they act as their own confluence and looking for PA around these numbers, in and of themselves, can be tradable.

The Eur/Aud Weekly chart shows this all to clearly:
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #29,457
  • May 7, 2009 11:19pm May 7, 2009 11:19pm
You da man, Jarroo. One more lesson learned. One more tool in my toolbox.

Quoting jarroo
Pipgator you ask some great questions and pose some good concerns as we all have to do.

Concern PPZ levels. A great way to start is on the weekly time frame around the big (Bold) round numbers. Like the 2000s, 1500s, 18500, 150.00, 145.00, etc.

Mike talks about these "Extra special" round numbers all the time. And I give them due respect because of Mike. In a sense, they act as their own confluence and looking for PA around these numbers, in and of itself, can be tradable.

The Eur/Aud Weekly chart shows this all to clearly:
  • #29,458
  • Edited May 8, 2009 1:52am May 7, 2009 11:20pm | Edited May 8, 2009 1:52am
Quoting PipGator
marcelnyo,


I guess the ultimate answer to your question (and my questions) has a lot to do with your style as a trader. (Thanks to TiaForex for helping me realize that trading style is a very important factor in determining whether a setup is tradeable.) Do you prefer to eliminate the possibility of a loss very quickly like james16, jarroo and others? Do you prefer to hold on to your positions and/or only take A+++ setups like Mike and/or Josh?

I too am curious to see how other people respond to our questions. It seems that we both have much...
Its interesting, the different styles between Mike and James16. They do wait for the best setup to trade. They are very picky as we all should be.

But Mike is much more strict in his evaluation of a A+ setup then James16. I don't want to say conservative in the trading sense because once the "A+" setup is confirmed by both of them, their strictness is reversed.

James16 will move to break even quickly, where Mike will understand the strength and power behind an A+ setup and allow for some draw down. He knows that his stop loss at the bottom/top of that A+ PA setup is very unlikely to be hit.

Now this is just my view Mike and James16. So don't quote me on any of this, OK? lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #29,459
  • May 7, 2009 11:39pm May 7, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting jarroo
Pipgator you ask some great questions and pose some good concerns as we all have to do.

Concerning PPZ levels. A great way to start is on the weekly time frame around the big (Bold) round numbers. Like the 2000s, 1500s, 18500, 150.00, 145.00, etc.

Mike talks about these "Extra special" round numbers all the time. And I give them due respect because of Mike. In a sense, they act as their own confluence and looking for PA around these numbers, in and of themselves, can be tradable.

The Eur/Aud Weekly chart shows this all to clearly:
hey you're giving all my tricks out !
  • #29,460
  • May 8, 2009 12:00am May 8, 2009 12:00am
Quoting mbqb11
hey you're giving all my tricks out !

You have many tricks up your sleeve Mike. Learning all of them and putting them all together does take some time, for sure.
But when they do come together it sure is a whole alot of fun.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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