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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #29,421
  • Edited 5:02pm May 7, 2009 4:49pm | Edited 5:02pm
My daily chart closes in 10 minutes.

I do not see any trades on the daily charts. Am I over looking one (or more) potential trades?

I see the EURGPB looks decent. That is about it. The other trades that were shaping up appeared to be "disformed" with the late news on the banking strength in the USA.
  • #29,422
  • May 7, 2009 5:03pm May 7, 2009 5:03pm
When you imagine the 2-3% potential loss, that fear just kept getting bigger doesn't it? but I guess that's why we only look for the best setups, for sure profits.

I have a question though, does an outside bar needs to close higher than the previous bar to make it one?

I'm pretty sleepy but I really like the PA and location for EURAUD Pin.
Other PA in sight are GBPUSD BEOB, GBPJPY Pin, and EURCAD BUOB

although right now the EURCAD BUOB gives some wrong feeling, those bar lows at from Jan 09 to March 09 gives the creeps, and you can see more of that from 2008, maybe I'll pass EURCAD' PA.

GBPUSD Seems like in a good location, and despite the rising weekly trendline, there's going to be a Bearish PB on weekly if this daily BEOB breaks and closes under it.

And now I'm currently looking for anything wrong with GBPJPY and EURAUD, the GBPJPY will be a quick profit, I'll take half profit on +35 and move stops for the other half to -35, so if I get stopped out, will be BE for the GJ trade.
  • #29,423
  • May 7, 2009 5:10pm May 7, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting marcelnyo
When you imagine the 2-3% potential loss, that fear just kept getting bigger doesn't it? but I guess that's why we only look for the best setups, for sure profits.

I have a question though, does an outside bar needs to close higher than the previous bar to make it one?

I'm pretty sleepy but I really like the PA and location for EURAUD Pin.
Other PA in sight are GBPUSD BEOB, GBPJPY Pin, and EURCAD BUOB

although right now the EURCAD BUOB gives some wrong feeling, those bar lows at from Jan 09 to March 09 gives the creeps, and you can see more of...
Hey marcelnyo,

An outside bar close does not necessarily need to close higher or lower than the previous bar in order for it to qualify as an outside bar but I do know that a number of ppl on this fourm will only consider those that have closed higher or lower than the previous bar. Depending on your criteria I suppose it could make the difference between an A and B setup. I personally am only playing the bars if the close is higher or lower than the previous bar. Guess it's a matter of personal preference at the end of the day.

Also passing on the EURCAD. There's also the 365 EMA which may act as some resistance.

Cheers
MM
  • #29,424
  • May 7, 2009 5:11pm May 7, 2009 5:11pm
Well after analysing all my pairs it's another pass for me. Nothing outstanding and tomorrows data could throw a spanner in the works if just going for a few pips.

Catch you guys next week.
  • #29,425
  • May 7, 2009 5:25pm May 7, 2009 5:25pm
Possible potential??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-7-2009 EUR_NZD.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #29,426
  • May 7, 2009 5:33pm May 7, 2009 5:33pm
Another Potential
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-7-2009 GBP_JPY.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #29,427
  • May 7, 2009 5:34pm May 7, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting Digger48
Possible potential??
Hi digger, it's not a pin on my feed, I use fxopen
  • #29,428
  • May 7, 2009 5:44pm May 7, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting Digger48
Another Potential
Hi Digger48

Take a look at the weekly for the GBPJPY pair you posted.

If taking a daily trade when would you take profit bearing in mind you would be trading against a weekly BUOB (admitedly not at good swing low but still amixed signal)?

Would you close before data is released tomorrow?

These are some of the questions I ask myself.

cheers

fxp
  • #29,429
  • May 7, 2009 5:47pm May 7, 2009 5:47pm
I've narrowed it down to GU, GC. EURAUD, USDSGD and a great pin on silver which I only watch.

I had to look at fxpro bars on a few of them because of that stress test business. But price is price, our broker aggregates it how they decide to and as long as we don't get into too much of a curve fitting scenario, then it's okay in my book to look at a few brokers. Especially if they are closer to NY close. I'd never look at a broker that had a bit of Asia in the bar.

Which ones did you plump for Josh?...
  • #29,430
  • May 7, 2009 5:57pm May 7, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi Digger48

Take a look at the weekly for the GBPJPY pair you posted.

If taking a daily trade when would you take profit bearing in mind you would be trading against a weekly BUOB (admitedly not at good swing low but still amixed signal)?

Would you close before data is released tomorrow?

These are some of the questions I ask myself.

cheers

fxp
The weekly does look interesting. 4 of the last 6 have bounced from the 150.0. NFP just might be what pushes it through the 150. For the most part I don't really try to keep up with the news or the fundies, however lately they do seems to move the market drastically at times. If I did get in this trade, 1 TP would be 146.73, 2 TP 144.67. Not decided yet though because it's counter trend. Would have to be at BE quickly.
  • #29,431
  • May 7, 2009 6:13pm May 7, 2009 6:13pm
Bullish Outside Bar on EUR/GBP Daily...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp-daily.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #29,432
  • May 7, 2009 6:16pm May 7, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting TiaForex
I've narrowed it down to GU, GC. EURAUD, USDSGD and a great pin on silver which I only watch.

I had to look at fxpro bars on a few of them because of that stress test business. But price is price, our broker aggregates it how they decide to and as long as we don't get into too much of a curve fitting scenario, then it's okay in my book to look at a few brokers. Especially if they are closer to NY close. I'd never look at a broker that had a bit of Asia in the bar.

Which ones did you plump for Josh?...
I've got my order placed for EUR/AUD. Still looking at GBP/JPY but leaning towards no. I like the USD/SGD bar, but I don't even have PPZ up on the minors yet... haven't traded it before.

As for the GU and GChf, I like the formations. My main G/CHF concern was that my profit targets are based on R:R, which would need a substantial move to reach 1:1... on GU, I am wondering why it stopped at 1.52.... the PPZ was at 1.50 or at 1.53(ish)... So that one makes me wonder if we are not simply retracing back to 1.50 (after this 4 month 'breakout' above 1.50) and will continue higher. If it breaks the low of the BEOB, my stance might change as we will have moved well through the 1.50 PPZ...

So you see my reasons are based on my strategy... they could very well work out for a different strategy, as you often allude to. Will be out for a while tonight, so good luck deciding guys and remember - Plan your trade and trade your plan .

Charts below.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF 050709_day.GIF Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 050709_day.GIF Size: 55 KB
  • #29,433
  • May 7, 2009 6:24pm May 7, 2009 6:24pm
Forgot to mention that this will be my first live trade with FX (small account, 2% risk) so I'm trying to be extra confident...possibly anal ...

No go on G/J... pinbar previous followed by pinbar... not all that convincing of a pinbar... not setup to be a confidence builder on my first trade...

Will be watching all of these of course to see if they all work according to what expect...

Josh
  • #29,434
  • May 7, 2009 6:32pm May 7, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting Jduester
I've got my order placed for EUR/AUD....
Now you're the one reading my mind....

I took the EURAUD. I do like the zoomed out daily chart showing what a key area this is. And I am taking the USDSGD as well. And I am watching silver which I would have "mentally" picked were I trading metals...just in the watching stage on those but they have both been giving good reliable PA recently.

I have a parallel demo account where I take these trades and have tightened stops behind the second eye or comparable S/R level. I'm running that account for a few months to see what it does to my trades.

I passed on GU for exactly the same reason. It didn't seem like a strong enough close to me above. Admittedly if the bar breaches it'll have slipped below the 1.5 by a lot but I like to see a strong close to my bar.

I was tempted by GC but I had two trades out there already and I really would have liked to see that bar higher, around the 1.75 level where al the interest and major PPZ is. The fact that the nose of the pin didn't reach the last high and the tough stuff it's trading into made it a no trade for me.

I had a loser on the daily AUD last week which was sheer cockiness. I didn't move my stop to BE where I should have done and it bounced. Luckily I got out for 0.5R moving my stop down to behind the nose of a bearish 1h pin but it was a mismanaged trade. My first loss in over two months and puts me behind the game this month, which I am hoping will be my third profitable demo month.

And on a psych note, I found it really really hard to pull the trigger tonight. I really do have this perfectionist's fear of being wrong. I looked at mbqb11, raczek, both forums.....then had to put all that out of my head. Trading really is 90% psychological.

In relation to your TP system, I am really intrigued by it and would be very interested in watching how it works for you. It's appealingly simple. Personally I prefer to use SR levels to set TPs because I gain confidence from seeing price bounce where I expect it to. If you had told me your TP about your TP system before showing me your backtesting results I probably would have been skeptical. But it's gone through rigorous backtesting as everything does with you so I am fascinated to see its progress.
  • #29,435
  • May 7, 2009 6:36pm May 7, 2009 6:36pm
nice.

Quoting MinceMeat
Looks like there have been some decent 4 hour pin bar setups on AUDCHF and CADCHF.

Attachment
  • #29,436
  • May 7, 2009 6:38pm May 7, 2009 6:38pm
very nice mike.

man thats a pretty picture.

Quoting mbqb11
These are the days we have to be patient for.

Big pin
Big Round number
Clear divergence
  • #29,437
  • May 7, 2009 6:39pm May 7, 2009 6:39pm
Quoting Jduester
I've got my order placed for EUR/AUD. Still looking at GBP/JPY but leaning towards no. I like the USD/SGD bar, but I don't even have PPZ up on the minors yet... haven't traded it before.

As for the GU and GChf, I like the formations. My main G/CHF concern was that my profit targets are based on R:R, which would need a substantial move to reach 1:1... on GU, I am wondering why it stopped at 1.52.... the PPZ was at 1.50 or at 1.53(ish)... So that one makes me wonder if we are not simply retracing back to 1.50 (after this 4 month 'breakout' above 1.50) and will continue higher. If it breaks the low of the BEOB, my stance might change as we will have moved well through the 1.50 PPZ...

So you see my reasons are based on my strategy... they could very well work out for a different strategy, as you often allude to. Will be out for a while tonight, so good luck deciding guys and remember - Plan your trade and trade your plan .
It stopped because of an old minor PPZ as shown in this chart. That's the only explanation I need.

Quote
Forgot to mention that this will be my first live trade with FX (small account, 2% risk) so I'm trying to be extra confident...possibly anal ...
Good luck to you on your first trade. Looking forward to that day myself, real soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-7-2009 GBP_USD.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #29,438
  • May 7, 2009 6:45pm May 7, 2009 6:45pm
Quoting Jduester
Forgot to mention that this will be my first live trade with FX (small account, 2% risk) so I'm trying to be extra confident...possibly anal ...

No go on G/J... pinbar previous followed by pinbar... not all that convincing of a pinbar... not setup to be a confidence builder on my first trade...

Will be watching all of these of course to see if they all work according to what expect...

Josh
Hmmm,

Hope it works out well for you J, I remember my first live trade was a loss (lol) not because it wasn't a great setup it was, the outside bar broke down but then came back up and retraced, so instead of "taking a full loss" Instead I took a small loss.

In the end the setup fully worked out and did what it indicated it was going to do. Reminds me of Shakespeare -

Our doubts are traitors,
And make us lose the good we oft might win
By fearing to attempt.

The psychological aspect of trading probably is the hardest for me to figure out, the analysis is always the same really after a while. Now trading for me is really boring heh.
  • #29,439
  • May 7, 2009 6:50pm May 7, 2009 6:50pm
9minutes to IBFX daily close
  • #29,440
  • Edited 7:53pm May 7, 2009 7:43pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting MinceMeat
Yep, a real beauty!

Crazy how I haven't really seen any really decent trades (by my newly improved standards anyway) for well over a week and then a boat load come along in one day!
I'm trying to decide between the BUOBs/BEOBs on EURGBP, GBPUSD and GBPCHF at the mo ..... must say I'm leaning towards the EURGBP setup out of these at the mo.

EURAUD Pin Bar is also on the list of possibilities!
I like the BEOB of Daily Gbp/Usd because the swing is higher then the swing Low of the BUOB Daily Eur/Gbp. Plus the big Round Number of 1.5000. Let's see how she breaks. (If she breaks.)

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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