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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,701
  • May 7, 2009 5:29am May 7, 2009 5:29am
Hi all...(or maybe to myself only )

We still have to wait until next week after all the important red flag news pass away this week.

Based on charts below, this pair is still indecisive and the uptrend market looks vulnerable. Entry should be easy if we can have this pair in overbought/oversold level (RSI) per 4 hour chart and combined it with the original method/rules.

Questions/comments are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #19,702
  • May 7, 2009 5:33am May 7, 2009 5:33am
Quoting time1300
I just wanted to mention that when taking trades, always remember that there will always be another trade and you do not need to take every singal trade.......As Welshguy and many other veteran traders to the system have stated before is to take on the high probability trades.............
Veteran traders would be our Guru himself and Palmer...I still consider myself as a small fry compare to these two great guys...
  • #19,703
  • May 7, 2009 7:35am May 7, 2009 7:35am
Quoting fxnoob08
is anyone finding himself that some of the MA's are just getting in the way of what could have been very profitable trades? is anyone paying more attentions to some of the MA's more than others such as only the 200 SMA, 89 SMA and 21 EMA.
still interested in getting an answer to this
  • #19,704
  • May 7, 2009 8:37am May 7, 2009 8:37am
Quoting fxnoob08
still interested in getting an answer to this
They are not getting in the way. They are always important and usefull. What you have to do is watching the PA around them, and analyse the PA using extra indy such as macd. In my case, I combined macd with rsi for 4 hour TF, 15m and 5m. Meanwhile in 1 hour TF, I use macd and adx to relate the PA around those MAs.

TLs and fib levels are also crucial. You need to set their accuracy to at least 1 Hour TF after you create them from D1.

Hope this the answer that you want to know.
  • #19,705
  • May 7, 2009 9:07am May 7, 2009 9:07am
Quoting Phillip Nel
A candle pattern must just support an already made decision through other methods of analyses. Only my opinion.
thanks for the answer above orange, please analyze this post by phil, way back on page 56....http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=837

who wouldn't have enterted this trade though based on the continuation signal and VERY VERY strong bearing candle signal, which was even preceded by a doji and long tail. you would have been nailed using this system as well as the candle patterns alone

i realize phil is gone. this is for anyone following his system.
  • #19,706
  • Edited 9:46am May 7, 2009 9:36am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting fxnoob08
thanks for the answer above orange, please analyze this post by phil, way back on page 56....http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=837

who wouldn't have enterted this trade though based on the continuation signal and VERY VERY strong bearing candle signal, which was even preceded by a doji and long tail. you would have been nailed using this system as well as the candle patterns alone

i realize phil is gone. this is for anyone following his system.
Morning/Evening Doji Star is the most reliable candlestick pattern compare to the others (3 inside/outside up or down, morning/evening star, etc etc). I myself will not give it a miss to enter my trade after this pattern is formed. However, please keep it mind that Highly Reliable Candlestick Patterns is not a Holy Grail.

As per the above mentioned post, it was downtrending market per the rules. However, if you look @ his macd window, it seems a TC upside. So, the macd itself did not support the PA. If me, I might need the RSI to see whether the market is already oversold or not before I take the trade as well.

And, as I mentioned earlier, TLs and fib levels are crucial. Phillip pointed out about this so clear to tell us on how important to make a correct TLs and fibs.

Last but not least, I always remember three common advices:-

1) Never fall in love in your forex position;
2) Never take revenge if the market hit your stoploss; &
3) Market can change direction at anytime for any reason.

Hope this helps.
  • #19,707
  • Edited 10:31am May 7, 2009 10:00am | Edited 10:31am
Hi all...

This pair has settle back @ fib 61.8% and price level H1 (1.3410) after rising from price level M (1.3330). I use these price levels +/-80pips as I see EU is moving within this wave.

ECB easing the rates and the dust is yet to settle as we have NFP tomorrow, so we still have to wait whether this pair can overcome the R3 res TL or coming back to M level.

The initial resistance should be price level H2 @ 1.3490, which I think the price will retrace/pause for a while, because I also predicting that the market could be into overbought status somewhere around this level. This is just the possiblity that I anticipated for now.

Comments/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #19,708
  • May 7, 2009 11:52am May 7, 2009 11:52am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Morning/Evening Doji Star is the most reliable candlestick pattern compare to the others (3 inside/outside up or down, morning/evening star, etc etc). I myself will not give it a miss to enter my trade after this pattern is formed. However, please keep it mind that Highly Reliable Candlestick Patterns is not a Holy Grail.

As per the above mentioned post, it was downtrending market per the rules. However, if you look @ his macd window, it seems a TC upside. So, the macd itself did not support the PA. If me, I might need the RSI to see whether...
hello orange. i'm not sure what you mean by the macd was not supporting the price action. it is a trend continuation pattern pointing to the downside meaning, everything was screaming DOWN, except that trend line in the way. or maybe im missing something.
  • #19,709
  • May 7, 2009 3:44pm May 7, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting fxnoob08
is anyone finding himself that some of the MA's are just getting in the way of what could have been very profitable trades? is anyone paying more attentions to some of the MA's more than others such as only the 200 SMA, 89 SMA and 21 EMA.
Fxnoob - could you give me a some screen shots to explain exactly what you mean? I'm guessing you are talking about the EUR/USD & the GBP/USD?? If you are then these markets are current in a box range / a rest state / consolidation period.

When these MA's come together and converge - it shows lack of momentum & conviction within the moves. If you are aware of this type of market then you can use this to your advantage. Your stops must be tighter, define the range with support and resistance lines and trade it using candle signals & the MACD as the trigger.

When you notice the MA's taking control (as in now on the EUR 21:40) that is when you need to change your approach and can start respecting the MA's. Remember the market has a memory! once it starts respecting the MA's the probability it will again becomes a lot higher.

If you could post screen shots it would help me explain loads easier.

Cheers WG
  • #19,710
  • May 7, 2009 4:09pm May 7, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting yuyudada
Hi,Welshguy2000:...
Hello,

Sorry for the late reply, right lets start from the beginning for this trade. The 1st reason why i didnt take this trade is, I didn't think there was enough upward potential for the target profit. This knowledge was based from the daily level @ 1.5067 (16:04:2009) on the 1D chart.

Reviewing the reasons why you have placed this trade, they are all very good valid reasons. A few things, The box range you highlighted, I wouldn't class this as a classic box range, its more of a rest period to allow the 8EMA to fill the gap. Please find the current box range highlighted on attached image.

Your last question about the fib study - the wave in question is upto the 5162 level - however when you were drawing it i'm guessing it was up to the current high? Until the current wave has completed, keep you fib studies on the previous wave, if that makes sense?

see my image attached.

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.jpg Size: 201 KB
  • #19,711
  • Edited 6:33pm May 7, 2009 6:09pm | Edited 6:33pm
Quoting fxnoob08
still interested in getting an answer to this
I know what you mean. For example, the macd will give a signal to short and once you are in the trade, it will go smack bang into a moving average or trendline providing support. Not only that, it bounces off that support and takes out your stop. Frustrating!

That's why Phil wanted us to concerntrate on price action around the moving averages first and then use the macd as confirmation. The macd isn't always reliable. If you do use the macd as a trigger signal then you still need to look at support and resistance, moving averages and trendlines before putting your trade on.

Did that help ?
  • #19,712
  • May 7, 2009 11:18pm May 7, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting fxnoob08
hello orange. i'm not sure what you mean by the macd was not supporting the price action. it is a trend continuation pattern pointing to the downside meaning, everything was screaming DOWN, except that trend line in the way. or maybe im missing something.
To me, the macd shown TC upside. Welshguy and Xeneric also answer your question too.

If you look at EU below, will you give it a try to SHORT this pair as you see the macd forming RT? If me I will say "NO" because the PA from this TF itself+from lower TF+others indy signal does not agree with the SELLING idea for now.

The case would be the same if macd don't support the PA. So what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #19,713
  • May 8, 2009 12:01am May 8, 2009 12:01am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all... This pair has settle back @ fib 61.8% and price level H1 (1.3410) after rising from price level M (1.3330). I use these price levels +/-80pips as I see EU is moving within this wave... ECB easing the rates and the dust is yet to settle as we have NFP tomorrow, so we still have to wait whether this pair can overcome the R3 res TL or coming back to M level... The initial resistance should be price level H2 @ 1.3490, which I think the price will retrace/pause for a while,...
Hello all...

The price will either stay away from the R3 res TL, or break through it later on. This TL is very much tricky since the fib 61.8% also provide a good resistance to this pair.

However, if I am right, the market still bias to the upside and will hit price level H2 @ 1.3490, and perhaps go all the way to fib 76.4% before it touch the overbought level. This is just my prediction. Time will tell the truth though.

Comments/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #19,714
  • May 8, 2009 1:25am May 8, 2009 1:25am
I took the EURUSD long position,
enter at 1.3402 stoploss at 1.3337 TP at 1.348
anyone took this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 20090508 04.gif Size: 23 KB
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #19,715
  • May 8, 2009 2:03am May 8, 2009 2:03am
Quoting dhalsim
I took the EURUSD long position,
enter at 1.3402 stoploss at 1.3337 TP at 1.348
anyone took this?
Mist it If it comes back I'll be getting long for a target of 1.3506, I will be keeping a close eye on this as NFP is up this afternoon and i dont like to keep positions open over this.
  • #19,716
  • Edited 4:16am May 8, 2009 4:04am | Edited 4:16am
Morning everyone,

As I mentioned earlier, I mist the initial TC entry at 7:00 this morning, however i've managed to get long on a pull back on the 1H chart. Although I dont usually trade over non farms, i'm going to review the position 15 mins before the news release. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, yesterday after ECB rate decision. This candle closed aggressively above some serious resistance.
2) Price pulled back and found support off the 8 EMA.
3) Daily chart shows price action bottomed out at 1.3243 (previous resistance which has now turned to support)
3) Price has a high probability of breaking out of the daily resistance like show on the attached image.

Entry @ 1.3407
TP: 1.3508 (Just below daily trend line & R3 daily pivot.
Sl: 1.3215

I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade ocer the weekend which should will answer any questions?

To receive updates of my videos please subscribe to my channel in my signature: http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur4h(08-05-09).gif Size: 26 KB
  • #19,717
  • May 8, 2009 4:43am May 8, 2009 4:43am
Can anyone help me how to turn on private massage, please.
  • #19,718
  • May 8, 2009 5:06am May 8, 2009 5:06am
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning everyone, As I mentioned earlier, I mist the initial TC entry at 7:00 this morning, however i've managed to get long on a pull back on the 1H chart. Although I dont usually trade over non farms, i'm going to review the position 15 mins before the news release. Reasons for this trade are as follows:
1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, yesterday after ECB rate decision. This candle closed aggressively above some serious resistance.
2) Price pulled back and found support off the 8 EMA.
3) Daily chart shows price action bottomed...
I have no intention to make you quit your trade but as per my charts below, the R3 res TL+fib 61.8% provide strong resistance to this pair. From lower time frames, price making double top @ 15m reacting to these two res levels and in 5m, price is now going below 50sma. Maybe you should leave the market for a while and let the dust settle down? I don't know man, its your money, hope the market will favour you...

All the best...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #19,719
  • May 8, 2009 5:10am May 8, 2009 5:10am
Someone has asked me to share this indy. Here it is...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Support Resistance.mq4   1 KB | 469 downloads
  • #19,720
  • May 8, 2009 5:38am May 8, 2009 5:38am
Quoting mxm
Can anyone help me how to turn on private massage, please.

On the top left, there is Forum Links and under that there is Private Messages. Click on that. Then click on Send New Message. It is just like posting but don't forget to put in the name of the person whom you are sending the PM to. You have to be logged in first.
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