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  • #11,261
  • May 5, 2009 7:57pm May 5, 2009 7:57pm
eur/cad 4hr

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  • #11,262
  • May 5, 2009 9:20pm May 5, 2009 9:20pm
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Hi guys. I got really nice pips on the way down here but warn against taking a buy back up because it seems a lot of risk trades being cut. I am going back into a sell here if it comes back up to 131.40. Reason I will wait is because the japanese are on holidays and it would be easy to exaggerate the fall here. Things will settle closer to london and could go anywhere during our day. Aussie and nzd are particularly prone to being pushed about when markets are thin so watch them also.
  • #11,263
  • May 5, 2009 9:29pm May 5, 2009 9:29pm
131.40 has no significance.

Failed break back above 132.00/132.30 is more appealing to short.
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  • #11,264
  • May 5, 2009 9:42pm May 5, 2009 9:42pm
I am looking at the areas across my 4 hr chart and would be happy with a sell there. It may not come back up in the short term with so much selling anyway, and took a sell at 130.46 when usdjpy turned back down on the half hour. My post was primarily to comment on the risk of buying into japs with risk trades being cut and because market extremely thin. I guage my trades on much more than the one chart and it is always a personal decision so prefer not to follow opinions. I dont think anyone should follow my opinions either, but they may be happy to hear some ideas about what could be behind some of the action that is going on.
  • #11,265
  • May 5, 2009 10:57pm May 5, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting Tori
Attachment Hi guys. I got really nice pips on the way down here but warn against taking a buy back up because it seems a lot of risk trades being cut. I am going back into a sell here if it comes back up to 131.40. Reason I will wait is because the japanese are on holidays and it would be easy to exaggerate the fall here. Things will settle closer to london and could go anywhere during our day. Aussie and nzd are particularly prone to being pushed about when markets are thin so watch them also.
I was looking at the same level-- 129.70 level.
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  • #11,266
  • Edited 1:59am May 6, 2009 1:13am | Edited 1:59am
Here's my look at EURJPY - sell zone is 13140-13200.
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  • #11,267
  • Edited 1:47am May 6, 2009 1:37am | Edited 1:47am
A short term resistence area 1.3325 - 1.3340
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  • #11,268
  • May 6, 2009 2:34am May 6, 2009 2:34am
Concepts call on GU was an excellent one but I'd be thinking about taking some profit or locking in be+ if I was short. Why?

Because it hadn't reached the longer term resistance (and it doesn't actually have to) and because it looks like its bouncing off s&r.

On a more useful note: I saw the reference to the video BRV posted and having watched it (excellent) thought I'd repost it so that people didn't have to search back for it. It's an interview with Mark Douglas, a guy who has an excellent understanding of the thinking mistakes we make as traders.

http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657...er_Market.html

.
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  • #11,269
  • May 6, 2009 12:15pm May 6, 2009 12:15pm
Werry close to H1 support back in 2008
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  • #11,270
  • May 6, 2009 3:32pm May 6, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting Gambis
Werry close to H1 support back in 2008
Short @0.7494 TP1 - 0.7340 TP2 - 0.7250
  • #11,271
  • May 6, 2009 3:56pm May 6, 2009 3:56pm
Pound double top? Still optimal to enter. Stop just above 5155.
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  • #11,272
  • May 6, 2009 4:16pm May 6, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Pound double top?
Where's the second top?
Mr. Trend
  • #11,273
  • May 6, 2009 4:24pm May 6, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Where's the second top?
How often is a doubple top to-the-pip? .. It need not be to the pip. +/- 10 is ideal for me .. That level is also the monthly R1 pivot. Took a shot right at 5150 with no hesitation.

Accompany that with some daily MACD bearish divergence
  • #11,274
  • May 6, 2009 4:27pm May 6, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting jack.canadia
How often is a doubple top to-the-pip? .. It need not be to the pip. +/- 10 is ideal for me .. That level is also the monthly R1 pivot. Took a shot right at 5150 with no hesitation.

Accompany that with some daily MACD bearish divergence
On the H4 chart the inverted hammer is violated to the upside. more bullish than bearish??
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #11,275
  • May 6, 2009 4:32pm May 6, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
On the H4 chart the inverted hammer is violated to the upside. more bullish than bearish??
Our close times are different. I compare 5 pm EST NY close and 00:00 GMT close on MT4

Yesterday 00:00 GMT close was spinning top or doji (w/e you want to call it) and today 5:00 PM EST close was a hanging man.

Im just providing my view. Theres no risk to my current trade as im covered BE.
  • #11,276
  • May 6, 2009 4:34pm May 6, 2009 4:34pm
Typical!

After seeing tumbleweed all day, an interesting debate breaks out just as I'm about to go to bed...

http://www.jonrb.com/emoticons/tumbleweed2.gif
  • #11,277
  • May 6, 2009 4:36pm May 6, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Our close times are different. I compare 5 pm EST NY close and 00:00 GMT close on MT4

Yesterday 00:00 GMT close was spinning top or doji (w/e you want to call it) and today 5:00 PM EST close was a hanging man.

Im just providing my view. Theres no risk to my current trade as im covered BE.
I am talking about the 4 hour chart above. The inverted hammer there might be providing bullish pressure. What do you think?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #11,278
  • May 6, 2009 4:38pm May 6, 2009 4:38pm
GU Double Top?

You could get one. Or you might not. This post doesn't say you wont but I wanted to put up the counterpoint.

Real time double top predictions are predictions that the trend of the moment will reverse and put one in the countertrend mode. Also put one in the classic bottom/top picking mode (I sold a beautiful crude oil double top around 30 a few years back). I posted last night that the original call to short 15150 was a good one but the caller should consider taking profit or snugging stops.

Why? Because a reversal would seem likely eventually but it doesn't have to be now. The major resistance (IMO) lies above current prices including the 200sma currently at around (1.575). Feel free to ignore the mas on my charts and just consider the s&r zones.

IMO we have a daily trend up in a possible weekly trend reversal (possible only but with new highs). Betting that the daily trend is over is fine but personally the thing I liked best about BRV's discussion of S&R was his use of S&R to support trades with the trend.

.
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  • #11,279
  • May 6, 2009 4:46pm May 6, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
GU Double Top?

You could get one. Or you might not. This post doesn't say you wont but I wanted to put up the counterpoint.

Real time double top predictions are predictions that the trend of the moment will reverse and put one in the countertrend mode. I posted last night that the original call to short 15150 was a good one but the caller should consider taking profit or snugging stops.

Why? Because a reversal would seem likely eventually but it doesn't have to be now. The major resistance (IMO) lies above current prices including the 200sma...
Well, I agree 100%. Had I come to the computer now and saw a re-test of yesterday's high, I wouldn't short. But since I'm already short from todays high, then why not. With the pound, the next highest supply, or the next lowest demand levels are favored by institutions compared to minor ones in the way.

I didn't say that this would be the be-all-end-all turn-a-round in the pound. Come on now. Im just a retail trader.

What I do know is that, based on the reaction at yesterdays high, given it being a monthly R1 and weekly mid level pivot, and prior s/r (if you really look youll find it on the daily to the left) that if price found its way there today, I would short, and I did. I always assume some supply is left. Hell my stop was 15 pips from entry.

S/R trading allows you to make money in two directions, but the most with the trend. I am a trader, and will take long trades and short trades in the same day even if the weekly, daily, 4-hour and 1 hour charts are all favoring one direction.
  • #11,280
  • May 6, 2009 4:54pm May 6, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting Jigsaw
omfg its Mr.Trend

Your posts are quality.

Come back to the J16 thread bro ? Loved your posts there.
How ya doing JS... Yeah, I drop in from time to time... always to see who's left, who's new, etc... James16 is doing pretty well for himself these days eh... who needs trading -- FF has made a lot of people on here a lot of friggin' money... I should quit my dayjob and bug merlin, or whomever is running the show these days....
Mr. Trend
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