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  • #2,621
  • May 4, 2009 10:40pm May 4, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting rgrace
Eur/Usd has closed well above the trendline on the daily that has been in place since July of last year. Higher highs and higher swing low on daily. This would also be a break of the triangle it has been in since July of last year. Could this be the resumption of the secular uptrend on the monthly chart? Only time and price action will tell. Definitely one to add to your watch list though in my opinion.
Yes, young Mr Grace. See my previous post - watch to see if it uses this trendline for support and take it from there
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,622
  • May 4, 2009 10:43pm May 4, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting ausfx
Hi all. Very "green" (and gold) trader here. So after much stumbling around in the dark in a room looking for that ever elusive "light switch" it wasn't until recently that I discovered I was in fact in the wrong room. Now that I've found said right room I have turned the light onto dim and looking to steadily increase the brilliance and eventually be "blinded by the light".

Currently I'm sitting about 1/3 of the way through this thread, have marked J16 as a must read and will be registering for the "Path of Learning".
The light gets brighter but ONLY if you READ and UNDERSTAND. Any questions please ask as you will get answers from those who have travelled The Path before you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,623
  • Edited 11:05pm May 4, 2009 10:49pm | Edited 11:05pm
AUD/USD

Big Boss is up on strong PA but inbetween 100 and 200 EMAs.

Boss trend is up, 20 is trending up 50 is still bearish.

Daily trend is up just closed strong above major resistance at .7300 level, 20,50 and 100 are all trending up 200 is flat acting as confluence at 7300.

On my charts i have minor resistance at the 7400 level also, i have placed a buy stop at 7435 with a SL at 7290. is this stop too close to 7300??

Strat how are my SR levels looking? do they look correct? any input would be appreciated..
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  • #2,624
  • May 4, 2009 10:53pm May 4, 2009 10:53pm
Sunday bars - NO, not the one AstonDan goes to after Sunday lunch but for those of us who have Sunday bars for Asian trading.

As I have previously mentioned, I use Sunday bars in my trading BUT only if they present PASR and only if it LOOKS right and only if it feels right. How to teach this is impossible as it just comes with experience.

This week's Sunday bars produced quite a few BEOBs and BEEBs on my data and from a PASR point of view looked pretty good. However, the rest of it just didn't stack up for me, so I ignored them (thank goodness!). I didn't like them in the context of the bars before them, the levels they were at and mainly the fact that London was on holiday leaving only NY to trade. To me, this was going to be an "unbalanced" trading day.

It's not a rule that you can trade by but many times, the Sunday bar is wiped out by London only to be re-instated by NY, so with a third of the equation missing, and being in doubt, I stayed out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,625
  • Edited May 5, 2009 2:48am May 4, 2009 11:19pm | Edited May 5, 2009 2:48am
The black stuff is at a very important level right here. Major Resistance at 54.00. i find it hard to belive we could break this level but the dollar weakining further and a strong inventories report on wednesday could push it up?????
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  • #2,626
  • May 5, 2009 2:31am May 5, 2009 2:31am
Quoting CrudeCraig
The black stuff is at a very important level right here. Major support at 54.00. i find it hard to belive we could break this level but the dollar weakining further and a strong inventories report on wednesday could push it up?????
Hi Craig
Crude is right at the top of the range it has been stuck in for the past couple of months. If we break up through 54.50 we are at a price we have not seen since last November so it is significant.
Much of the price rise is due to the US dollar weakness this week and all the commodities including crude are shaking off bad news and continuing up. Last weeks crude inventories data was bearish, very high levels (we are swimming in oil) and weak demand forecasts and yet crude has broken up. If you look at the weekly hammers though it was only a matter of time ...
Gold had a huge rise yesterday too.
All the commodity currencies have been strong as a result ... AUD, CAD etc.

Best wishes
Nicola
  • #2,627
  • May 5, 2009 3:09am May 5, 2009 3:09am
Quoting elitejets
Hi Craig
Crude is right at the top of the range it has been stuck in for the past couple of months. If we break up through 54.50 we are at a price we have not seen since last November so it is significant.
Much of the price rise is due to the US dollar weakness this week and all the commodities including crude are shaking off bad news and continuing up. Last weeks crude inventories data was bearish, very high levels (we are swimming in oil) and weak demand forecasts and yet crude has broken up. If you look at the weekly hammers though it was only...
Hi Nicola,

I agree, it will be interesting to see where this week takes us....

Anyone watching EUR/CHF?

Nice Pennant being formed, PA has been bouncing off the 50 acting as support, price is currently attempting to push through resistance at the 1.5100 level and the daily 20. Also a perfect 50% fib from the lows on march 6th.
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  • #2,628
  • May 5, 2009 7:07am May 5, 2009 7:07am
Quoting CrudeCraig
AUD/USD

Big Boss is up on strong PA but inbetween 100 and 200 EMAs.

Boss trend is up, 20 is trending up 50 is still bearish.

Daily trend is up just closed strong above major resistance at .7300 level, 20,50 and 100 are all trending up 200 is flat acting as confluence at 7300.

On my charts i have minor resistance at the 7400 level also, i have placed a buy stop at 7435 with a SL at 7290. is this stop too close to 7300??

Strat how are my SR levels looking? do they look correct? any input would be appreciated..
What was the PASR that triggered you long?

Apart from 0.7300 level, I have different levels
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,629
  • May 5, 2009 1:30pm May 5, 2009 1:30pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Hey guys,

Finally swallowing my own pride and acknowledging the fact that in order to make a change that makes a difference I need to do something different.

I have been reading this thread for a while and found it very enjoyable and useful - thanks to all those wonderful people who share their knowledge and experience, especially of course to you Strat!

Now it's time to get more actively involved.

My trading background: started trading stocks at 16 and made what was a small fortune for me at the time, then the .com bubble exploded and left very little behind (I was about 20 then). Got back into the madness at the end of last year (I am 29 now) and have ever since blown 4 accounts.

At the very beginning I tripled my account within two weeks trading the S&P, making a profit almost every day and thought "hey, that's easy" then I lost it all within 3 days. Oh though bitter pain!

Ever since been reading quite a bit - Trader_dante, BillyRayValentine, J16, Jacko and more recently this thread, having loads of light bulb moments along the way... and I am still at the very beginnning. My trading actually improved after coming across this thread, but I quickly fell back into old habits. (jumping the gun, micro-managing, having to be "in", wanting to win back money etc.)

Now...

What better way to get your act together, than stripping naked and embarrassing yourself in front of other people...

Thus, I have attached my bucket shop's chart of my profit/loss. Raw and uncsensored. Ouch! Strong downtrend, few areas of consolidation but hit upper resistance level at 300 and went straight through support at around 450. Would anyone like to short it?

I'd like to change that trend, by walking the line, or rather the path of learning I should say.

Cheers
Sid
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  • #2,630
  • May 5, 2009 1:39pm May 5, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting strat
The conservative, safest and lowest risk way (which is what is being taught on here) is to let price show us the way at these critical levels and THEN observe what she does after that.

For example, AUDUSD has broken the very important resistance level of 0.7300. Is it genuine? Is it a fake by the MMs? It looks good but we don't know for sure so until you have that 3 years of consistent equity growth and the experience that goes along with it, let's just play it safe. So what we do is look for price to trade above 0.7300 and then retrace BACK to...
Hi All,

Like Strat has said, any long on Audusd should be with caution. Audusd is forming a bearish AB=CD form.
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  • #2,631
  • May 5, 2009 3:22pm May 5, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting AstonDan
Personally, i'll be WAITING to see PA ABOVE/OFF 1.5 SR. That's it, job done, forget about until then, relax, no stress.

Easy like a sunday morning
Price may close above your SR level today, Dan. This week may see some PA to point us in one direction or the other?

best
Paul
  • #2,632
  • May 5, 2009 4:16pm May 5, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting PaulKing
Price may close above your SR level today, Dan. This week may see some PA to point us in one direction or the other?

best
Paul
Hi Paul, i noticed that earlier tonight - patience is a virtue! I'll now be looking for BULLISH PA for the reasons i mentioned in the post you quoted but also because...

I've just looked at the weekly for Cable, and noticed that for the first time since July 2008, price closed ABOVE the 20EMA.

Is this the train now fully turned around?

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(ignore the trendline, which is drawn from the Daily close)
  • #2,633
  • Edited 4:46pm May 5, 2009 4:27pm | Edited 4:46pm
AUDUSD - round 2!

Shooting Star No 2 on the .7457-60 SR level combined with 38% Fib level from monthly swing high to low (although not the best S Star so maybe best to wait for confirmation. Weak move thru that level could be caused by losing momentum or candle time)

Orders in below low of S Star.

BTW - I've seen numerous debates over the threads about the body of the hammer/star. Some say it has to be within the body of the previous candle, others say it must be red for a short and blue for a long etc. Others say it's not the exact candle formation rather where it appears. I think Strat said once that they 'stand out like a sore thumb' if they are worth taking. Once we deliberate I suppose we should pass on the trade for not being 100% perfect?
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,634
  • May 5, 2009 4:59pm May 5, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting Grimweasel
AUDUSD - round 2!

Shooting Star No 2 on the .7457-60 SR level combined with 38% Fib level from monthly swing high to low (although not the best S Star so maybe best to wait for confirmation. Weak move thru that level could be caused by losing momentum or candle time)

Orders in below low of S Star.

BTW - I've seen numerous debates over the threads about the body of the hammer/star. Some say it has to be within the body of the previous candle, others say it must be red for a short and blue for a long etc. Others say it's not the exact candle formation...
Even though I have a better looking shooting star on my data, I will not be taking this one. It is above the BOSS 50 which is also right around the S/R level I have at .7313. That along with the Psycho .7300 has me a little worried. I may be overly cautious, but this trade does not look as good as the last one to me.
  • #2,635
  • May 5, 2009 8:25pm May 5, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting Sid
Hey guys,

Finally swallowing my own pride and acknowledging the fact that in order to make a change that makes a difference I need to do something different.

I have been reading this thread for a while and found it very enjoyable and useful - thanks to all those wonderful people who share their knowledge and experience, especially of course to you Strat!

Now it's time to get more actively involved.

My trading background: started trading stocks at 16 and made what was a small fortune for me at the time, then the .com bubble exploded and left...
Sid,

It seems to me like you are suffering from trading psychology, specifically NO PATIENCE and ABSOLUTELY NO DISCIPLINE without even considering your technical analysis skills.

Until you recognise this, it does not matter how good you are in your technical anaysis skills as your trading psychology will ALWAYS let you down (read LOSE).

If I'm wrong on this let me know because until we find your problem and the cause, we can't work on the solution.

""Finally swallowing my own pride and acknowledging the fact that in order to make a change that makes a difference I need to do something different""

To acknowledge this and DO something about it is a step on The Path of Learning.

Now, the first thing you must do is forget everything you already know and start with A BLANK SHEET OF PAPER and AN OPEN MIND. Go to the beginning of The Path of Learning by starting again at the beginning of this thread only this time, READ and UNDERSTAND each and every post. Anything you don't understand, ASK! DO NOT TRADE or EVEN THINK ABOUT TRADING until you have caught up on the thread. Then let us know where you are by posting comments on set ups etc but again, DO NOT TRADE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,636
  • May 5, 2009 9:09pm May 5, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Paul, i noticed that earlier tonight - patience is a virtue! I'll now be looking for BULLISH PA for the reasons i mentioned in the post you quoted but also because...

I've just looked at the weekly for Cable, and noticed that for the first time since July 2008, price closed ABOVE the 20EMA.

Is this the train now fully turned around?

Attachment

(ignore the trendline, which is drawn from the Daily close)
I've been thinking GBPUSD is going through the transformation to bullish for a few weeks now.

The BIG BOSS, even ignoring the 5 days in May is very bullish, that is, the immediate trend is up while the overall trend is still down. When we consider the BIG BOSS, we must always do this in terms of one of those huge oil tankers on the ocean - these take something like 20 nautical miles to stop and something similar to turn around.

The BOSS is also bullish and making HLs and HHs with last week's close above the 20. She is banging her head against resistance so to confirm the trend, we need the next retrace to hold above the last swing low of 1.4396 on my data.

The WORKER has put in a weak shooting star on my data. I would have liked to see the high up at the resistance at psycho 1.5200 but it stopped slightly short. However, the close is below my next resistance of 1.5025 and I see Asian trading keep going up to test it.

My next support is at 1.4865 and below that, my TL, all of which tells me this is more likely to be a retrace than a short although it does seem a "quickie" can be got for 100 pips if that is your style.

Until she hit major psycho 1.5000, the WORKER was stair stepping nicely in an uptrend. The profit taking at 1.5000 was always expected. She needs to close any retrace above her last swing low of 1.4514 to maintain her uptrend.

Although we have cycles topping out on both the WORKER and BOSS, Momentum is still bullish and accelerating.

So, the bottom line is to watch how and where this next retrace (if it is a retrace) closes before jumping in long.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,637
  • May 5, 2009 9:17pm May 5, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting Grimweasel
AUDUSD - round 2!

Shooting Star No 2 on the .7457-60 SR level combined with 38% Fib level from monthly swing high to low (although not the best S Star so maybe best to wait for confirmation. Weak move thru that level could be caused by losing momentum or candle time)

Orders in below low of S Star.

BTW - I've seen numerous debates over the threads about the body of the hammer/star. Some say it has to be within the body of the previous candle, others say it must be red for a short and blue for a long etc. Others say it's not the exact candle formation...
Danny boy be very careful with this. For some reason you don't have the very important SUPPORT of 0.7300 on your chart which young Mr Grace has reminded you of. This WAS very important RESISTANCE and now with 3 closes above it, becomes very important SUPPORT.

I suggest you re-read my post on testing this as support to go long before even considering a short.

In addition to 0.7300 as support, AUDUSD seems to be in the similar transformation to GBPUSD.

I am not messing with Oz.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,638
  • May 5, 2009 9:22pm May 5, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting rgrace
Even though I have a better looking shooting star on my data, I will not be taking this one. It is above the BOSS 50 which is also right around the S/R level I have at .7313. That along with the Psycho .7300 has me a little worried. I may be overly cautious, but this trade does not look as good as the last one to me.
Young Mr Grace you are doing really good - thinking about LOSING before winning is what will GROW your account.

At this stage of everyone's learning process, you MUST be cautious rather than aggressive. The time will come, and you will know it, when you can be more adventurous in your trading. Until that time, PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL is the TOP PRIORITY.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,639
  • May 5, 2009 9:29pm May 5, 2009 9:29pm
I am surprised no-one has mentioned USDCAD - Nicola, are you still knee deep in crude?

Opposite to AUDUSD, USDCAD broke through very important SUPPORT and has now thrown a Bond hammer out on my data which has closed above that support. I would like to think it has found support there but just above it is resistance at 1.1850. Also putting me off is my Momentum which is bearish and accelerating.

This is another to watch.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,640
  • May 5, 2009 9:56pm May 5, 2009 9:56pm
One of the first steps on The Path of Learning is learning basic PRICE ACTION. Even considering all the books out there, the best place, by far, to learn basic PRICE ACTION is J16.

Having said that, do not go further than a hundred or so pages as not only does it repeat but it wanders off into short time frames. In case anyone has forgotten, the HIGHER the time frame, the MORE RELIABLE price action and all other technical data is. Conversely, the lower the time frame, the less reliable (MORE RISKY) price action and all other technical data is.

At this point, J16 and myself take different paths, which is why you need to come back to this thread AFTER you have LEARNED and UNDERSTOOD basic price action.

Our J16 purists on here, Baba G and Swami S, want the close of the price reversal bars to be within the prior candle's body for it to be valid. I respect that but also know from previous trades and from looking back in history, there are many price reversals where this is not true and also where the price reversal bar is not "perfect".

If everything else in the trade lines up, I will take the trade regardless of where the close is. Don't forget also that unlike J16, who propose entering price reversal bars on a 50% retrace, I don't get filled on a trade UNTIL the respective extreme of the bar is taken out.

For example, the recent shooting star on the AUDUSD. My sell stop was not only below the low of the shooting star it was also below the 0.7220 support. For me to get filled, the price had to go BELOW the LOW of the shooting star AND BELOW the support of 0.7220. I NEED MOMENTUM to fill me in my trades and this is one way of doing it. As with the AUDUSD, price didn't go there so I didn't get filled and my order was cancelled when the HIGH of the shooting star was taken out.

Now, if you had gone in with your sell order on a 50% retrace of the shooting star, you would have been filled AND taken LONG for a COSTLY AMOUNT OF PIPS which is VERY DAMAGING to your account.

I will tell you again that the small amount of lost pips in profit by placing your stop orders at the extreme of price reversal bars is NOTHING compared to the amount YOU WILL LOSE by doing different.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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