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Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

  • #1,041
  • Edited 12:41am May 1, 2009 12:37am | Edited 12:41am
That first support level I mentioned held up at 145.64. Now, it is clearly range bound, has been for the past 16 hours. Somethings got to give. At least we hope. Watch for a break above 147, could run pretty well as it has been in an uptrend the past few days. Notice how the 146.90 area has been hit 4 times. Usually, when you see this pattern, it doesn't hold. You can liken it to a battering ram. After a few hits, the door will open. Trendline has held steady the past few days too. Wish I would have taken a buy at 139! Welcome to FOREX! Take care folks and have a great weekend.

Tatton, where are you?
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  • #1,042
  • May 1, 2009 2:07am May 1, 2009 2:07am
nice read, good going guys, FX is a constant learning pool.

GJ bull is real strong and has been heading up all week, currently we are at heavy resistance area and i expect 149 to come into the picture eventually. dont risk much on this current market as this area is critical to determine where we are going b4 market close, i hope you all gad a great trading week as i did, i will drop back in with analysis. Good weekend.
  • #1,043
  • May 1, 2009 4:16am May 1, 2009 4:16am
Quoting Tatton
nice read, good going guys, FX is a constant learning pool.

GJ bull is real strong and has been heading up all week, currently we are at heavy resistance area and i expect 149 to come into the picture eventually. dont risk much on this current market as this area is critical to determine where we are going b4 market close, i hope you all gad a great trading week as i did, i will drop back in with analysis. Good weekend.
WOW! Tatton, Glad to know you're well! Everyone will be glad to know that you are back!
  • #1,044
  • May 1, 2009 8:12am May 1, 2009 8:12am
Hi FX Dad

Just to let you know I'm still watching and trying to learn and you're not whistling in the dark!

Have a good wkend if I don't catch you Later.

Brian
  • #1,045
  • May 1, 2009 10:24am May 1, 2009 10:24am
Quoting LinksMan
Hi FX Dad

Just to let you know I'm still watching and trying to learn and you're not whistling in the dark!

Have a good wkend if I don't catch you Later.

Brian
Hey Brian, I appreciate the feedback. Hope it's helped. This is actually Tatton's thread. A couple posts before yours, you'll see he posted a comment. He took a little break, and now it seems, we have him back! He is a great trader and gives some really profitable trade advice. Stay here and you will learn from him too.

Cheers Mate!
  • #1,046
  • May 1, 2009 10:39am May 1, 2009 10:39am
Quoting FX Dad
Hey Brian, I appreciate the feedback. Hope it's helped. This is actually Tatton's thread. A couple posts before yours, you'll see he posted a comment. He took a little break, and now it seems, we have him back! He is a great trader and gives some really profitable trade advice. Stay here and you will learn from him too.

Cheers Mate!
fxdad thanks for your work here.

im not 100% sure i will continue sharing my trades as i did b4, we had a good run in this thread everyone booking plenty pips for several weeks but it affects my trading for some odd reason. I rather focus on my trading but i will be here more often that i have been since i took a break. See you next week.
  • #1,047
  • May 1, 2009 10:57am May 1, 2009 10:57am
Quoting Tatton
fxdad thanks for your work here.

im not 100% sure i will continue sharing my trades as i did b4, we had a good run in this thread everyone booking plenty pips for several weeks but it affects my trading for some odd reason. I rather focus on my trading but i will be here more often that i have been since i took a break. See you next week.
When you give your trade picks, it puts on a lot of added mental pressure. I felt it just that past few days. Especially when I held a trade too long and it ended up losing 60 pips. Plus, with the GBPJPY, it moves so fast, by the time you execute your trade, type in the trade info to the post, it has already moved past your target, or has already taken a bounce. I trade, as you do, a managed account for a couple of clients. It is much less stress than giving picks to the public. I do a 50/50 split, and if I don't make money, my client doesn't make money. So my clients know I do my best for them. Maybe doing a little forecast, and targets to watch for, will be less time consuming for you. I know people will still follow your lead. I like taking your advice, and applying it to my ideas. It gives me a lot more confidence when I hit the TRADE button. Thanks Tatton. Glad you're back!
  • #1,048
  • May 1, 2009 11:40am May 1, 2009 11:40am
Just saw this setting up ont the Euro, and thought I'd post it since I had talked about it a few posts ago, and charted it out. Watching and trading consolidation breaks is my most favorite of trade patterns. They are easy to see and it can make some nice moves when the lines are broken.

Here is a great example on watching a consolidation wedge forming. I drew the large wedge in red, and I also tightened it up using the yellow trendline. Just a couple more hours in the trading day, so it probably won't do much. I never recommend holding intraday trades into the weekend, because large gaps can form and wipe out your trades. Many times, the triangular wedges can be very profitable. Look at it on your own charts, without the lines, and you will better be able to spot it on your own.

Watch for a break and see what it does. If the price continues to trade in this tight range, the yellow trendline can be adjusted as it stretches out. Just watch for a clear break, and see what it does..... Take care and have a good weekend.
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  • #1,049
  • May 4, 2009 12:37am May 4, 2009 12:37am
Quoting FX Dad
Just saw this setting up ont the Euro, and thought I'd post it since I had talked about it a few posts ago, and charted it out. Watching and trading consolidation breaks is my most favorite of trade patterns. They are easy to see and it can make some nice moves when the lines are broken.

Here is a great example on watching a consolidation wedge forming. I drew the large wedge in red, and I also tightened it up using the yellow trendline. Just a couple more hours in the trading day, so it probably won't do much. I never recommend holding intraday...
Here is the follow up chart showing a break in the consolidation pattern on the Euro. (Compare to chart and notes on my previous post.) I also watch the "psychological levels". By this, I mean the round 100 pip numbers, in this case 1.3300. These levels, in many cases also provide support and resistence. You can see on the Euro, that once it broke 1.3300, it carried up for about 50 pips, and now has formed as support.

I hope this example of trendlines, trends forming consolidations, and using the "psycological" levels as possible support and resistence, can help you in your trading. It is the basis for most of my technical trades. Let me know if you have any questions, by email or post.

Click on charts to enlarge
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  • #1,050
  • Edited 1:17am May 4, 2009 1:17am | Edited 1:17am
Quoting FX Dad
That first support level I mentioned held up at 145.64. Now, it is clearly range bound, has been for the past 16 hours. Somethings got to give. At least we hope. Watch for a break above 147, could run pretty well as it has been in an uptrend the past few days. Notice how the 146.90 area has been hit 4 times. Usually, when you see this pattern, it doesn't hold. You can liken it to a battering ram. After a few hits, the door will open. Trendline has held steady the past few days too. Wish I would have taken a buy at 139! Welcome to FOREX! Take care...
Wanted to follow up on the post and chart from Post #1041). Just wanted to point out how you can effectively you can use a strong resistence line to watch for a break. As I had described before, the resistence area near 147, got hammered a few times, and also notice how the price almost seemed to get aqueezed between the 147 resistence, and the trend line. Finally, it made the break up and really moved once it got past the "Psychological" level of 147. Made a nice 130-140 pip run to the 148.30 area. It then came back down again, and bounced off the 147, which then became a support level. It found resistence at 148.30, and almost did the same, as it made a few attempts to get above the 148.30 resistence, but then it finally broke above it. Notice how if you drew line at 148, you can see how it has become support level. It was a slower move this time, but it did make it up to the next "Psychological" level of 149. Notice how the old resistence level of 148.30 has now become a support.

The way I trade these is when the resistence levels are broken, and depending on the price action, the level holds I would have placed a buy, with a short 50 pip stop. If price holds and moves to the next "Psychological" level, again, depending on PA (price action), I would clear partial profit, or take full profit. Everyone has their own style and risk tolerance. New traders need to think about what they are most comfortable with.

I also drew a possible trendline in yellow. Forming a small consolidation at the top. Something to watch.

I hope this gives you new traders something new to think about and I hope it helps you in some way, to see where the market might go.

Trade safe!

Click on chart to enlarge
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  • #1,051
  • May 4, 2009 1:28am May 4, 2009 1:28am
As I was making the last post, the GJ broke downward, but is finding support at the 148 area. Watch for a break below, or it may bounce back up to the 149 area, and maybe trade int that range for a while. If it does, the trendline will need to be moved to reflect the move sideways.

If you look at the USDJPY, it is stuck in a range, and may be squeezing into a consolidation. Looking at the 1hr, you can see how it has formed support ar 99, and resistence at 99.60. So, the GJ might be setting up to do the same.

It is still Monday. The market is still waking from it's weekend slumber so I'm usually not in a rush to trade on Mondays. I think Tatton feels the same way too, unless there is an obvious setup. ie, a good drop on the GJ below the 148 could provide 50 to 100 pips on a quick intraday trade.

Note: Always check the News events on the front page of ForexFactory. You don't want news events to interfere with any of your open trades. Protect profits with stops or trailing stops.
  • #1,052
  • May 4, 2009 2:35am May 4, 2009 2:35am
I was thinking of watching for a trade, and checked the news..... Bank holiday for both GBP/JPY. I'd stay away from the pair today. Ususally means lower liquidity for the pair, which can equate to erratic behavior in pricing. I'm just going to sit back and watch how the the week starts to shape up.

Trade safe
  • #1,053
  • May 4, 2009 5:47pm May 4, 2009 5:47pm
A consolidation pattern is setting up on GJ. I have moved the bull trendline to reflect the new break sideways. The red trendline is the older trendline I had drawn from last week. Notice how it made a break down below the red trendline, and made a nice little 100 pip run down and formed support around 147.50.

The new yellow lines I've drawn shows the squeeze of the 100 pip range (148-149), down to a 35 pip range.

Watch for a break above for a short move to 149-149.10. If it breaks that level, there isn't much to hold it until 150. After that is 150.62 and 151.50. (I'll point the resistence and support levels out on a 4hr chart below)

It is flirting with a possible break below now. If it breaks down, watch for support at 147.50, 147, 146.50 and 146.
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  • #1,054
  • May 4, 2009 5:59pm May 4, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting FX Dad
A consolidation pattern is setting up on GJ. I have moved the bull trendline to reflect the new break sideways. The red trendline is the older trendline I had drawn from last week. Notice how it made a break down below the red trendline, and made a nice little 100 pip run down and formed support around 147.50.

The new yellow lines I've drawn shows the squeeze of the 100 pip range (148-149), down to a 35 pip range.

[font=Arial]Watch for a break above for a short move to 149-149.10. If it breaks that level,...
It's not making a definate break yet. But is staying under the daily pivot of 148.32. A move under 148 may provide more of a fall. Take a look at the EURJPY. It also broke consolidation, but is clearly staying in the range of the past 10 hours.

Actually, I was just thinking of taking a short, but looked at the News calendar, and it is another bank holiday in JPY. 2 in a row? That explains why it is quieter than normal. Usually these breaks are more decisive. Anyhow..... it's food for thought.
  • #1,055
  • May 4, 2009 6:03pm May 4, 2009 6:03pm
hi

on the weekly we have a continuation pattern form,so i think in the long term we are bullish

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs87.asp

on the daily we might have a pullback
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  • #1,056
  • May 4, 2009 7:37pm May 4, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting FX Dad
It's not making a definate break yet. But is staying under the daily pivot of 148.32. A move under 148 may provide more of a fall. Take a look at the EURJPY. It also broke consolidation, but is clearly staying in the range of the past 10 hours.

Actually, I was just thinking of taking a short, but looked at the News calendar, and it is another bank holiday in JPY. 2 in a row? That explains why it is quieter than normal. Usually these breaks are more decisive. Anyhow..... it's food for thought.
I am long on both of these on the hourly. RSI Positive Reversals indicate and upward swing.
Paul
http://www.youlearnforex.com
  • #1,057
  • May 4, 2009 9:37pm May 4, 2009 9:37pm
good analysis guys, im currently waiting on the side with no open position.

bull are good choice but i will wait on the trade when i see it if i am awake.
  • #1,058
  • May 4, 2009 9:55pm May 4, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting Tatton
good analysis guys, im currently waiting on the side with no open position.

bull are good choice but i will wait on the trade when i see it if i am awake.
good to see your back ,hope everything is alright
  • #1,059
  • May 4, 2009 11:24pm May 4, 2009 11:24pm
Hi,

Look like creating bull flag

Nasir
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  • #1,060
  • May 5, 2009 12:45am May 5, 2009 12:45am
has tried to break the 149 on 3 times ,is trying hard to do it
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