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  • #2,601
  • May 3, 2009 7:27pm May 3, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting AminAS
Sunday's bar seems to be telling us alot. AUD/USD looks to be going higher without any rest or respite.
More important - what will NY do with it (London is on holiday)?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,602
  • May 3, 2009 9:30pm May 3, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting strat
More important - what will NY do with it (London is on holiday)?
I have removed my short order. That gapping higher is bullish, and the trend is definitely up. No trade until tomorrow.

I am adding another position onto the USD/JPY long at 99.67.
Bang.
  • #2,603
  • May 3, 2009 10:28pm May 3, 2009 10:28pm
Hi everyone

I've just joined "The Path of Learning" and thought that I should post a short intro. I've been trading forex for about 2 years with limited success (mostly un-success) on shorter time frames.

From what I've read in the past the benefits of trading the higher time frames (weekly, daily) have seemed obvious but I've never really traded them. The thought was that if I could trade the shorter time frames I would make more by placing more trades - yeah right!

But from what Ive read so far on this thread I am now convinced that I NEED to learn PASR set-ups on the daily and higher time frames and learn how to trade them. So now I am committed to 'the path'. I'm still reading through the previous posts (and catching up on James16). Hope to post once I have something meaningful to contribute.

Thanks Strat and all the rest involved in this endeavour.

Greg
  • #2,604
  • May 4, 2009 12:51am May 4, 2009 12:51am
Quoting GregB
Hi everyone

I've just joined "The Path of Learning" and thought that I should post a short intro. I've been trading forex for about 2 years with limited success (mostly un-success) on shorter time frames.

From what I've read in the past the benefits of trading the higher time frames (weekly, daily) have seemed ...
This is the place to be, Welcome Greg! Make sure you read everything that is posted or Strat will get you big time (My personal advice).
Bang.
  • #2,605
  • May 4, 2009 7:02am May 4, 2009 7:02am
Quoting GregB
Hi everyone

I've just joined "The Path of Learning" and thought that I should post a short intro. I've been trading forex for about 2 years with limited success (mostly un-success) on shorter time frames.

From what I've read in the past the benefits of trading the higher time frames (weekly, daily) have seemed obvious but I've never really traded them. The thought was that if I could trade the shorter time frames I would make more by placing more trades - yeah right!

But from what Ive read so far on this thread I am now convinced that I NEED...
Hi Greg,

Shorter time frames = lots of losing trades
Daily + time frames = few winning trades

LESS IS MORE

Welcome and don't forget Amin's advice!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,606
  • May 4, 2009 7:20am May 4, 2009 7:20am
“A cloud does not know why it moves in
such a direction at such speed, it just feels
a compulsion that this is the place to go
now. By the sky knows the reasons and
patterns behind the movements, and you’ll
know too if you lift yourself high enough
to see beyond the horizon.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,607
  • May 4, 2009 9:54am May 4, 2009 9:54am
Hi stress free team, earlier last week we had a lot of PA to tempt us in, predominantly across the Yen pairs on Tuesday.

I took Euro and Dollar Yen, as i didn't fancy playing against what was shaping up to be a monthly shooting star on GBPJPY. However the move over the last 2 days of the month wiped out that shooting star on the monthly and gave us BUEB on the weekly.

Below is the weekly chart for GBPJPY zoomed out to not show PA, but to highlight the importance of the level we're at at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyw.jpg Size: 94 KB


I have marked the level as 149.25 (don't ask why i didn't just mark it as 150?!) This has historically provided strong support to sterling yen, from 1993 up until 1995 when price fell through, only to climb above again a relativley brisk 5 months later.

FIVE years later in 2000, price visited that level again, but didn't like what it saw, and beat a retreat North until...EIGHT years later, amongst the recent financial crisis, when it plunged to lows not seen before on my data.

Since price hit those record lows on 23rd Jan 2009 (with a nice Hammer, i might add), price has been climbing back towards 149.25, until reaching it in April, and trying to break through for almost two weeks, before falling away again, finding support off an ascending TL, and again, banging its head on 149/150 (Below)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyd.jpg Size: 82 KB


So, we have a very very important historical level, a clear trend, strong PA on the weekly...only one thing missing which i'll be keeping my eye on over the next couple of weeks

(Strat, how did i do?!)
  • #2,608
  • May 4, 2009 10:11am May 4, 2009 10:11am
Order has been cancelled. The high of the shooting star has been violated. I was hoping that my first order would be profitable, but there is another one right around the corner. The good thing about Aud/Usd is I was wrong, but had no loss. That is always nice. Now to keep my eyes peeled for another setup.
  • #2,609
  • May 4, 2009 10:18am May 4, 2009 10:18am
Quoting rgrace
Order has been cancelled. The high of the shooting star has been violated. I was hoping that my first order would be profitable, but there is another one right around the corner. The good thing about Aud/Usd is I was wrong, but had no loss. That is always nice. Now to keep my eyes peeled for another setup.
Same here.
  • #2,610
  • May 4, 2009 11:17am May 4, 2009 11:17am
Quoting Bloom
Same here.
Yep, same here as well as nzdusd
Let's see what the banks' stress test has in store!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,611
  • Edited May 5, 2009 6:00am May 4, 2009 3:06pm | Edited May 5, 2009 6:00am
HI Dan

I’m already long on this one, (Risky entry) coming up to strong resistance as you pointed out, 1490 1500ish. Current bar shaping up to be a doji with a few hours to go. Fifth touch of the S&R on the weekly (My data) as we have all discussed earlier about scaling I entered two lots so will close one B/E on second.
T/L drawn off line chart as Blackeagle suggests, with a good angle i.e. not too steep.

Two - thirds into the triangle suggesting a break? Because the S&R is a significant one, should a break south develop will the momentum be strong enough to touch old swing low support. As Strat already said to me before let the queen show the way.
Should be interesting, test for me to wait .......for it (PA) I’ll wait for Strat and the team for a heads up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 2.gif Size: 23 KB
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,612
  • May 4, 2009 3:15pm May 4, 2009 3:15pm
Cad continues to strengthen against the usd - the current down trend in usdcad started and mirrors the up trend in the DJI (starting on 8/3/09). So, as long as equities keep rising looks like usdcad will keep falling.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,613
  • Edited May 5, 2009 6:00am May 4, 2009 3:53pm | Edited May 5, 2009 6:00am
HI Strat
Quick question would you have pulled the trigger at current price point (0.74050, ish)
Again just getting the feel for daily. (My earlier entry we discussed before....premature and lucky this time) Strong weekly BUEB off 20 boss.
Stop at S&R 0.70280 Target the 365 / 250 ma, giving fair R/R
Thanks
Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusa 2.gif Size: 23 KB
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,614
  • May 4, 2009 4:36pm May 4, 2009 4:36pm
Eur/Usd has closed well above the trendline on the daily that has been in place since July of last year. Higher highs and higher swing low on daily. This would also be a break of the triangle it has been in since July of last year. Could this be the resumption of the secular uptrend on the monthly chart? Only time and price action will tell. Definitely one to add to your watch list though in my opinion.
  • #2,615
  • May 4, 2009 6:03pm May 4, 2009 6:03pm
Hi all. Very "green" (and gold) trader here. So after much stumbling around in the dark in a room looking for that ever elusive "light switch" it wasn't until recently that I discovered I was in fact in the wrong room. Now that I've found said right room I have turned the light onto dim and looking to steadily increase the brilliance and eventually be "blinded by the light".

Currently I'm sitting about 1/3 of the way through this thread, have marked J16 as a must read and will be registering for the "Path of Learning".
  • #2,616
  • May 4, 2009 10:02pm May 4, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi stress free team, earlier last week we had a lot of PA to tempt us in, predominantly across the Yen pairs on Tuesday.

I took Euro and Dollar Yen, as i didn't fancy playing against what was shaping up to be a monthly shooting star on GBPJPY. However the move over the last 2 days of the month wiped out that shooting star on the monthly and gave us BUEB on the weekly.

Below is the weekly chart for GBPJPY zoomed out to not show PA, but to highlight the importance of the level we're at at the moment.

Attachment

I have marked...
My line is at 150.60 so the critical area to watch is 149 to 151ish.

You did great, Dan, bloody great!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,617
  • May 4, 2009 10:11pm May 4, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting rgrace
Order has been cancelled. The high of the shooting star has been violated. I was hoping that my first order would be profitable, but there is another one right around the corner. The good thing about Aud/Usd is I was wrong, but had no loss. That is always nice. Now to keep my eyes peeled for another setup.
rgrace, Bloom, Grimweasel and anyone else who set up to sell AUD USD short.

Guys, guys, guys, stop this " I was wrong", because it's bad for your trading psychology. You were NOT wrong, YOUR ANALYSIS WAS CORRECT and providing you had your sell stops below the low or the support, your trades were not triggered and no loss was incurred.

The market just chose to do something different at a very important level.

You are only wrong when your analysis is wrong and that is what we are trying to correct on here.

So instead of beating yourself up that you were "wrong", pat yourselves on the back that you got the analysis RIGHT and no damage was done if you placed your sell stop correctly.

Remember, trading psychology accounts for 90% of our success in trading
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,618
  • May 4, 2009 10:26pm May 4, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Dan

I’m already long on this one, (Risky entry) coming up to strong resistance as you pointed out, 1490 1500ish. Current bar shaping up to be a doji with a few hours to go. Fifth touch of the S&R on the weekly (My data) as we have all discussed earlier about scaling I entered two lots so will close one B/E on second.
T/L drawn off line chart as Blackeagle suggests, with a good angle i.e. not too steep.

[font=Calibri][size=3]Two - thirds...
The conservative, safest and lowest risk way (which is what is being taught on here) is to let price show us the way at these critical levels and THEN observe what she does after that.

For example, AUDUSD has broken the very important resistance level of 0.7300. Is it genuine? Is it a fake by the MMs? It looks good but we don't know for sure so until you have that 3 years of consistent equity growth and the experience that goes along with it, let's just play it safe. So what we do is look for price to trade above 0.7300 and then retrace BACK to 0.7300 and CONFIRM it as support. Once it retraces and confirms support with PA then we know we have a good trade. Of course, the trend could be so strong that we may not get a retrace but we will get some form of PASR.

Steve, once you get these "high risk" trades out of the way, you really have to go back to the beginning and trade in a safe, conservative, low risk manner. I've been there, lost my head several times, had it handed to me on a plate, and still kept on doing it until I saw the light. You may not think it now, but what I'm telling you, will save you in the long run.

Oh, by the way, Baba G was not joking when he said he experienced the same thing happening to a very close friend!

Just make sure YOU are not our NEXT close friend!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,619
  • May 4, 2009 10:27pm May 4, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Cad continues to strengthen against the usd - the current down trend in usdcad started and mirrors the up trend in the DJI (starting on 8/3/09). So, as long as equities keep rising looks like usdcad will keep falling.
Just like AUDUSD, USDCAD broke through a very important support level
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,620
  • May 4, 2009 10:38pm May 4, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Strat
Quick question would you have pulled the trigger at current price point (0.74050, ish)
Again just getting the feel for daily. (My earlier entry we discussed before....premature and lucky this time) Strong weekly BUEB off 20 boss.
Stop at S&R 0.70280 Target the 365 / 250 ma, giving fair R/R
Thanks
Steve
Steve, I don't know the answer because I didn't take the trade and therefore don't have a plan. If you don't know where to TP, then this shows YOU don't have a PLAN. Trading without a plan is like driving a Ferrari without brakes!

As stated in many posts, don't trade without a PLAN!

So you are in profit, so the first thing you need to do is take profit on a portion of your trade if you have more than one contract. The next thing to do is pull your SL to BE.

After that, either TP at a set TP target or trail price in any number of ways depending on your fear and greed factor. Again, without a plan, you are bringing emotions in, which is what, on this thread, we are trying to avoid.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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