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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #29,001
  • May 1, 2009 6:51pm May 1, 2009 6:51pm
Just to name a few.
Having a look at the weekly PA in crosses (yen crosses mainly) it looks like a sudden wave of tsunami optymism flooded the markets and there is another plane of risk ready to set off.
There is no crisis, everything from now on is going to be fine - at least weekly PA setups are saying so with its "fantastic" better then expected factors of consumers' optymism, Philadelphia index, and cat&dog consumer confidence index .
I can't recall when the last time reading of the index was worse than expected though, can you ?
Of course it can't be another "Enron type" accountacy blunder cause we'r living in the world of joy and a financial transparency

Just two persistent BUOB on Yen crosses on weekley charts (unless Japanese economy is going down the drain quicker then expected)
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I'm not a great fan of "fundamonals" but are these setups just red herrings or we already have hit the bottom and from tomorrow on we gonna blow another asset bubble and live in a better world again ???
  • #29,002
  • May 1, 2009 7:22pm May 1, 2009 7:22pm
Hey James Traders,

I, along with numerous other traders, am waiting to sell this rally big time. The trick of course will be not to be too early. The bullish sentiment in consumers, the national media and some instiutional traders is getting to the point again where the market will punish this irrational optimism. I think this usd/jpy chart shows that a top is near.

I have concerns about a BUOB on the usd/jpy weekly and the S&P closing above 875 (as CNBC has been pointing out daily now). I would love to see a double top at 101.50. I'm holding out shorting this pair yet and probably won't until after the "stress test" results are released. I'd like to hear thoughts from others.....
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"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #29,003
  • May 1, 2009 7:26pm May 1, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting pakiestra
Just to name a few.
Having a look at the weekly PA in crosses (yen crosses mainly) it looks like a sudden wave of tsunami optymism flooded the markets and there is another plane of risk ready to set off.
There is no crisis, everything from now on is going to be fine - at least weekly PA setups are saying so with its "fantastic" better then expected factors of consumers' optymism, Philadelphia index, and cat&dog consumer confidence index .
I can't recall when the last time reading of the index was worse than expected though, can you ?
Of...

Wow, very similar posts. I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see a head fake higher and then BAM reality comes crushing down.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #29,004
  • May 1, 2009 7:35pm May 1, 2009 7:35pm
I just find it "interesting" how all the crosses are conveniently "rallying" along with the Dow all the while we await the stress test with hearts a flutter. Or am I just a conspiracy guy? not to mention the patterns developing on eur/usd, djia, etc.

mass psychology....
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #29,005
  • May 1, 2009 8:09pm May 1, 2009 8:09pm
Interesting chart!
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  • #29,006
  • May 1, 2009 8:13pm May 1, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting oltciter
Interesting chart!
What.....exactly are you trying to say??? I see you have orders and are biased long.
  • #29,007
  • May 1, 2009 8:20pm May 1, 2009 8:20pm
I have trust for a "long" ride
  • #29,008
  • May 1, 2009 8:32pm May 1, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Hey James Traders,

...this irrational optimism. I think this usd/jpy chart shows that a top is near.

I have concerns about a BUOB on the usd/jpy weekly and the S&P closing above 875 (as CNBC has been pointing out daily now). I would love to see a double top at 101.50. I'm holding out shorting this pair yet and probably won't until after the "stress test" results are released. I'd like to hear thoughts from others.....
Indeed, although this statment is tempered by the well worded comments in the second paragraph, beware telling the forex market what to do. It is not a calf to be roped and manhandled, Tex, but rather a beast (as we used to call Cable)....or...in the case of USDJPY, perhaps a big bull!
  • #29,009
  • May 1, 2009 8:49pm May 1, 2009 8:49pm
Quoting raczekfx
Which way we'll travel today....?
No, one knows, no one cares, follow your trading plan regardless if you're long or short.

p.s. @ Braider. I closed ALL my longs due to 3350 test failure..

Enjoy the weekend..


.
I don't have an immediate bias at the moment. Just traded some old set ups I've used for a long time on the five and fifteens. Took profit at 3330 15m pin and not sure if the rest got stopped out B.E. or what yet, haven't looked. ...Must have been close!

Shut down not long after. Awake too long.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #29,010
  • May 1, 2009 9:00pm May 1, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting jarroo
That sure looks pretty Flem. I would like to see that one at a deeper swing low. But it has some potential because of its size (strength). If Price retraces down to the previous bar high area (before or after the break) will tell me if it has any legs.

http://i43.tinypic.com/30ixtmu.jpg
The more I look at it I swear it wants the 50 ema again before it tanks. There is bearish hidden divergence on the weekly but it has yet to play out. Gotta precede with caution on this one.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #29,011
  • May 2, 2009 8:58am May 2, 2009 8:58am
I noticed this nice pin on the monthly AUD/CAD. It's piercing the 61.8% Fib level. I think it has room to go to 0.8370 (minor PPZ) if it breaks down. It does have some congestion right below so that is a negative and might work against this set up.

I'll be watching this one closely. Any opinions about this one?
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  • #29,012
  • Edited 11:35am May 2, 2009 10:57am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting gorubin
I noticed this nice pin on the monthly AUD/CAD. It's piercing the 61.8% Fib level. I think it has room to go to 0.8370 (minor PPZ) if it breaks down. It does have some congestion right below so that is a negative and might work against this set up.

I'll be watching this one closely. Any opinions about this one?
This has the look of a neutral bar to me. I would want to see a much longer nose.

Also if you blend the prior two monthly bars on your chart is gives a two month BUOB. The 61.8 fib area on a monthly chart is a great area for a potential turn though so maybe this will give some pips.


cheers

FXP
  • #29,013
  • May 2, 2009 12:21pm May 2, 2009 12:21pm
Hello fellows, was wondering what you guys think about the current area of EU, maybe short on a retrace to the upside to have a lower stop risk... Input appreciated! Only price action related pls

Cheers,
mank
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  • #29,014
  • May 2, 2009 1:04pm May 2, 2009 1:04pm
Hi everybody, I have been following this Thread for a couple of months now, and just wanted to start to participate a little bit. First I would like to say thanks to all the senior members here, for spending so much time and sharing all their knowledge here. It is much appreciated.
I have just completed the first month of demo trading PA setups, combined with some of my own way of trading, and the first month turned out pretty decent. I had a total of 8 trades in April, 6 winners 1 loser and 1 BE, so now I have to find out if I can be consistent enough, to continue for a few more months.
You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.
  • #29,015
  • May 2, 2009 2:11pm May 2, 2009 2:11pm
You should not even think of risking 3% or more of your account in 1 trade especially if you are new. Try to keep it less than or equal to 2% of your equity on each trade no matter how great the trade looks.

I have a spreadsheet where I calculate what my position size should be based on the # of Pips risked and the $ value of 1 pip for that particulair pair. Then I will know immediately what my position size should be. If I get stopped out I will def. not be pleased but I will NEVER move my stop. My risk and reward are predefined...so the only variable for me is when do I move to breakeven to eliminate risk completely.

Some peope here might argue that R:R is not as important...but I don't think anyone could argue that the Risk part is not important. I think what they mean is that if you limit risk by moving to B/E quickly then the R:R formula doesn't make too much sense. However for most of us there will be times when we hit our max risk, so personally I like to have an idea of my R:R profile and know what can I expect as a reward (based on my trade history). This will give me peace of mind that I have a chance to make profits at the end of the month even with a few losing trades. But that's just me...

Rubin.

Quoting frankm7
It was definitely an eye-opener to me when I placed two orders this past week that risked much more than 2-3% of my account. Unfortunately, both were losers.

From what I've read here so far, R:R isn't necessarily as important as proper money management. My question for the more experience traders is: Do you still find yourself paying close attention to how much you are risking in relation to your account? Does it tend to me 2-3% as James recommends?

Thanks!
  • #29,016
  • Edited 3:09pm May 2, 2009 2:53pm | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting gorubin
You should not even think of risking 3% or more of your account in 1 trade especially if you are new. Try to keep it less than or equal to 2% of your equity on each trade no matter how great the trade looks.

I have a spreadsheet where I calculate what my position size should be based on the # of Pips risked and the $ value of 1 pip for that particulair pair. Then I will know immediately what my position size should be. If I get stopped out I will def. not be pleased but I will NEVER move my stop. My risk and reward are predefined...so the only...
i think you make some good points there bro. im not gonna try and tell people how much they should risk,after all each to there own ...BUT....why????? last week i made 6% of my account, (wish i could do this every week) and i NEVER risked even 1% (slightly less) on any one trade! when i am more consistant, i will raise my stakes to 2%. account size will take care of the rest. stress free trading for me is the way to go.
3% * 3 positions = 9%
9% * 25,000 (small account) = 2250....
thats a big loss for one day!!!
by the way 9% of the (fictional)account now is only 2047.5
the account now needs 9.89% to BE
a few days of this.........??
cheers
jon
EDIT:one thing i do is to take a % of my account as a buffer to cover losses. this way any loosing trades i make do not affect the %s
e.g. with a 25000 account trade your prefered %risk on say 22000 and let the 3000 take the losses.It is easier this way to regain any losses and controll any damage to the account.
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #29,017
  • May 2, 2009 3:24pm May 2, 2009 3:24pm
I have to ask a question that has been troubling me for some time. I see on the EUR/USD daily there is potential for a short following Thursdays pin if the price brerks down to around 180 (I reckon this may run into trouble around 130 or so tho'). Anyhow, my question really concerns the weekly chart which exhibits a pin or sorts in the opposite direction. My question really is (assuming the weekly pin was a valid one, which I accept it isn't) which chart should I pay most attention to, given that they seem to contradict? I know this is hypothetical but the situation must arise where a valid PA appears to suggest long in the higher TF but an equally valid PA suggests short in the lower TF.
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  • #29,018
  • Edited 4:19pm May 2, 2009 4:03pm | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting TotalNewbie
I have to ask a question that has been troubling me for some time. I see on the EUR/USD daily there is potential for a short following Thursdays pin if the price brerks down to around 180 (I reckon this may run into trouble around 130 or so tho'). Anyhow, my question really concerns the weekly chart which exhibits a pin or sorts in the opposite direction. My question really is (assuming the weekly pin was a valid one, which I accept it isn't) which chart should I pay most attention to, given that they seem to contradict? I know this is hypothetical...
I'm a new guy here to, but here is what I think. The Higher TF rules over the lower TF; therefore, weekly is stonger than daily. I see this chart as sending mixed signals right now. if you were to try and short based on the daily I would move Stops to Break even quickly, because it might only retrace to a protion of the weekly bar. Not sure if this helps, but I tried. When in doubt, stay out!

Good trading

Jim
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #29,019
  • May 2, 2009 4:07pm May 2, 2009 4:07pm
Longer time frames are more significant. That's way James16 recommends trading only weekly and daily charts for beginners like myself. Longer timeframes provide more information and volume of trading. They also give you more time to plan a trade. I have been told that when the big boys (ie: central banks and large hedge fund companies) trade currencies, they pay attention to the longer time frames. If you feel that there is conflicting information between the chart you are watching and a longer timeframe, that is a good reason to stay out of a trade. That's just the way I see it.

Quoting TotalNewbie
I have to ask a question that has been troubling me for some time. I see on the EUR/USD daily there is potential for a short following Thursdays pin if the price brerks down to around 180 (I reckon this may run into trouble around 130 or so tho'). Anyhow, my question really concerns the weekly chart which exhibits a pin or sorts in the opposite direction. My question really is (assuming the weekly pin was a valid one, which I accept it isn't) which chart should I pay most attention to, given that they seem to contradict? I know this is hypothetical...
  • #29,020
  • May 2, 2009 4:24pm May 2, 2009 4:24pm
I imagin it will be most crazy day 7 may
if u don't know why take a look
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...y=2009-5-7&c=2
from 7 am to 9.30 am
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