someone please analyze my conclusion on the usd/chf trade below:
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To me, the "signal" candle is a bit small and doesn't give a strong signal and then it is followed by some spinners denoting indecision. I would stay out of the trade until the direction is clearer.
To me, the signal candle is a bit small and doesn't give a strong signal and then it is followed by some spinners denoting indecision. I would stay out of the trade until the direction is clearer.
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thanks for the reply. the smaller the candle the smaller the stop loss. looks bearish and engulfing the previous candle. so how can we stay out based on that when everything is telling us to short.
2. we wouldn't know that the following candles are spinners because we'd be in the trade by then.
thanks for the reply. the smaller the candle the smaller the stop loss. looks bearish and engulfing the previous candle. so how can we stay out based on that when everything is telling us to short.
2. we wouldn't know that the following candles are spinners because we'd be in the trade by then.
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I don't trade the uchf but let's say that you did take the trade at the signal candle, you still would have made around 20 pips even if you entered in at the bottom of the signal candle. You should do what Phil did in his examples : Close half at around 20-30 pips then set the rest to Break Even and let it run. If you did that, then even if you got stopped out at B/E, you would still end up with some pips.
Trading is about probabilities and you are looking for precise answers. After a while, you will learn to determine which trades are better than others. If you stick to one or 2 pairs then you will soon know their characteristics and trade better.
For instance, Orange specialises in EU, WG specialises in GU and EU and Time1300 specialises in UJ. That is not to say that they don't trade other pairs but they are skilled in that pair.
Just a reminder that this coming week is Golden week for Japan and Japanese financial institutions will be closed. Also on Monday, UK banks will be closed.
And we also have 3 rate decisions (affecting AUD, GBP and EUR) and Non Farm Payroll.
If you are following this system by the rules correctly then you can use this information to compare yourself results against mine for April.
MONTHLY RESULTS (01-04-2009 : 30-04-2009):
Trades: 10 Winners: 9 Losers: 1
Total pips: 553
Total % return on account: 6.90%
Hopefully that will help you understand that you do not...
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Thanks for sharing your trades with us. It will give us an incentive and motivate us to keep up with you each month or at least we will have something to aim for.
There will be a lot of Red Flag news next week so I think the market will be in a high volatilaty mode.
So, let us see how the EU pair will do tomorrow (Monday 4/5/2009)...
Price coming back to R2 after it this resistance TL was broken several times previously. As per 1 Hour chart below, if the -DM cross above +DM by early session tomorrow, I think price might go below fib 38.2% and will find it immediate support at price level1.3140(L2).
As per our 4 Hour MACD system, in case the price break below 21ematomorrow, 365ema and 89sma are exactly around L2 level at this time acting as the immediate support levels.
It is still too early to predict about what will going on to this pair though...but I still want to keep my price levels (L2, L1,....H2) as they are now. No change yet.
Please ask/comment if you guys want to. I will appreciate it.
Hello all... There will be a lot of Red Flag news next week so I think the market will be in a high volatilaty mode... So, let us see how the EU pair will do tomorrow (Monday 4/5/2009)...
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Hi all...
So far...it seems that this pair still uptrending...but I think EU will find resistance somewhere around price level H1 (1.3380) or fib 61.8%, more or less.
If I am right, the price might hang around fib 50.0% before it decides the next direction. I am watching the PA @ lower timeframe as well the combination of macd+rsi.
Hi all... So far...it seems that this pair still uptrending...but I think EU will find resistance somewhere around price level H1 (1.3380) or fib 61.8%, more or less...
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Hi all...
Eu decided downside after hanging a little while aorund my fib 50.0% today and currently supported @ somewhere nearby price level L1 (1.3220) and going back below R2 res TL.
Next level to watch are:-
1) Fib 38.2%; &
2) Price level L2 (1.3140)
Let the market tell whether this pair can reach these two support levels as mentioned above. The potential seems to be there...too
I seached your videos and this tread, I only found 7trades you taken. they are:
1/ 01 APR 09 GBP/USD...
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You are correct - 2 of the traders are not covered here as of yet - I will try and upload these later tonight or tomorrow, together with my latest trade on the 1st of May
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Joined Apr 2005
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Status: Cruising The Outer Rim...
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Hey guys....talking about getting in early. Used our buddies 'other' strategy that gave an entry along with the 4hr coming back down to the 21. Sorry I've been absent, just been spending lots of time on the 15min with the 4hr flow. Lots of resistance to close above here....http://www.fxtradeblog.com
Hi all... Eu decided downside after hanging a little while aorund my fib 50.0% today and currently supported @ somewhere nearby price level L1 (1.3220) and going back below R2 res TL... Let the market tell whether this pair can reach these two support levels as mentioned above. The potential seems to be there...too
what do u think about this trade should we take this trade keeping the risk/reward ratio in mind. stop loss is about 70 pips and 8-21 MA's are 50 pips above.
what do u think about this trade should we take this trade keeping the risk/reward ratio in mind. stop loss is about 70 pips and 8-21 MA's are 50 pips above.
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In general, R/R should be < 1 and as a new trader you should stick to that rule as much as possible.
However, in this case, 70 pips is not a lot to risk. When Phil started the thread, the world markets weren’t in such turmoil and it wasn’t so volatile so he could use less than 50 pips as a stop. Now things are a bit different. We don’t want to risk too much for obvious reasons but we don’t want to risk too little either because we would get stopped out.
I think 70 pips is not too much to risk in the current environment even if you are only aiming for 50 pips. In hindsight, it would have been a very good trade and your stop would never have been hit but as traders, we can’t see into the future.
The question, then, is what prompted you to take the trade ? If it is backed by good reasoning like fibs, support and resistance, moving averages and rhythm then go ahead.
