Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 130 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,581
  • May 1, 2009 12:17pm May 1, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting strat
Remember, a price reversal bar has not failed UNTIL the OPPOSITE extreme price has been taken out.

For example, the Shooting Star:
This fails when the high price is exceeded. Until it's failed, it's still valid.

The Hammer:
This fails when the LOW price is exceeded. Until it's failed, it's still valid.
The Hammer I had on my USDCAD is now a FAILED HAMMER since the low of the Hammer has been taken out.

Breaking of price reversal bars with "thrust" or "momentum" is very good for our trading psychology as it gives us a nice "buzz" or adrenalin...
Hi Strat and Dan,
You beat me to it Strat - just got back from work having not even looked at the charts/market all day and I'm glad to see the PA on audusd as it adds extra weight to that S/Star in my view. A hammer or star followed by an IB or doji etc makes for a stronger move in my past experience.

I do find nzdusd odd though. Big Boss S/Star - weekly hammer and 3 daily shooting stars! (nearly). I think the weekly hammer can be discounted as it appears that the lower part was all from 1 spike down - this move could have been a possible 'clearing patrol' to clear out the orders for a big move down.

All in all I have 2 orders still live for those 2 and still for the FTSE100 Futures as that S Star on my feed is still valid as is the small dragonfly doji / IB within the S/Star's range.

So, lots of potential still there - 3 orders still in the market - nothing filled today - good show - adds weight to the down move - happy MON-days (all being well , although it's a Bank Holiday over here in the UK on Mon)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,582
  • May 1, 2009 12:20pm May 1, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting green
Hi,
20 and 50 are parallel
trend on the day is neither up or down
we have a higher low on the 50
which could lead to 1.3450 level. (66.6 Fib)

Attachment
I think it would be very good for you to register on The Path of Learning
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,583
  • May 1, 2009 12:35pm May 1, 2009 12:35pm
Hi Strat,

I was curoius about your thoughts on it.

Doesn't look like his order filled yet.

Thanks.
  • #2,584
  • May 1, 2009 1:15pm May 1, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Strat and Dan,
You beat me to it Strat - just got back from work having not even looked at the charts/market all day and I'm glad to see the PA on audusd as it adds extra weight to that S/Star in my view. A hammer or star followed by an IB or doji etc makes for a stronger move in my past experience.
Thanks Danny,
I haven't played them (SS) based on IB's before so i'll be watching closely.

How would/do you play it? Is it the break of today's IB (south, obviously), with a SL at today's high?

Thanks for your help Danny,

Dan
  • #2,585
  • May 1, 2009 1:29pm May 1, 2009 1:29pm
Dan,
It all depends on your RR Ratios and appetite for that risk.
I know some who would enter on the break of the IB and have their stop at the high of that IB.
Consider this to be the tighter, tactical entry.

The 'strategic' and safer option is to stick with what you know and place your order below the low of the daily Star, stop at the high. For a tighter stop, again, you could use the high of the IB. It's really up to your trading plan and your RR ratios mate. Just remember that this is more than likely to be tested, so make sure you don't move any stops to BE until the next key SR level has been penetrated; always wait for the first retrace until you move a stop. The stops are what makes the account in this game. I have been right on so many occasions only to foul the trade up and come out with a small loss or profit because I was too stringent on stops. Again, all about sticking to the plan!

My plan states that I'm only trading hammer, stars and IBs on KEY levels on the daily chart. That's it; but if your plan is to only trade hammers and stars then you have to stick with your plan.

The key to this game is EXTREME discipline. Even a slight deviation from YOUR trading plan will result in failure. Harsh, but true imo. Since I embarked on this trading business I have found many errors in my life and personality that were not conducive to trading and wider living; people have noticed the positivity etc and my change in outlook and they look aghast at me when I tell them it's all to make me a better trader!!! The psychology of this is so important, even more critical than entry and exits in my view.

Good trading though Dan!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,586
  • May 1, 2009 2:33pm May 1, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Strat and Dan,
You beat me to it Strat - just got back from work having not even looked at the charts/market all day and I'm glad to see the PA on audusd as it adds extra weight to that S/Star in my view. A hammer or star followed by an IB or doji etc makes for a stronger move in my past experience.

I do find nzdusd odd though. Big Boss S/Star - weekly hammer and 3 daily shooting stars! (nearly). I think the weekly hammer can be discounted as it appears that the lower part was all from 1 spike down - this move could have been a possible 'clearing...
I really hate to disagree with you Grim but Im still bullish AUD and NZD.
I will post chart later but I still see support from the daily and weekly, higher highs and higher lows and no retracement yet with strong up momentum. Im thinking of Dr Joe here but Im not ready to short them.
I would rather have a long order for the break of the IB (if it stays as one).
Have a great weekend
Nic

I could be wrong of course ...
  • #2,587
  • May 1, 2009 2:55pm May 1, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting elitejets
I really hate to disagree with you Grim but Im still bullish AUD and NZD.
I will post chart later but I still see support from the daily and weekly, higher highs and higher lows and no retracement yet with strong up momentum. Im thinking of Dr Joe here but Im not ready to short them.
I would rather have a long order for the break of the IB (if it stays as one).
Have a great weekend
Nic

I could be wrong of course ...
Don't hate to disagree Nic - this is why there is a market!! Differences of opinion!! If, as the charts may show, the indexes tank next week then usd will be in favour. But who knows - the hammer and shooting star at key SR levels with good fib confluence are about the best trip to the ATM one can have in this business - sure, it's not a given; the markets are unique - but it stacks the odds in your favour.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,588
  • May 1, 2009 4:16pm May 1, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting One14
Hi Strat,

I was curious about your thoughts on it.

Doesn't look like his order filled yet.

Thanks.
He did a very good analysis and identified potential areas of trouble (or targets).

If he has his sell stop below the major resistance (now support) of 0.7220, then he will be OK.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,589
  • May 1, 2009 4:41pm May 1, 2009 4:41pm
I want to first apologize for my delays this last week in updating our new members and the index. I have been working on a few things that I hope will really enhance the group and I hope to have everything compiled very soon.

All new members have been updated and new content added to the index, so please take a look and be sure I have everything. If I am missing information please email me at [email protected] and I will get right on it.

Also, anyone interested in being added to the "Path of Learning" please email me as well.

This thread has changed my trading life and my entire view of the market and I want to thank everyone who contributed to it, for that...

Lance
  • #2,590
  • May 1, 2009 7:38pm May 1, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting strat
He did a very good analysis and identified potential areas of trouble (or targets).

If he has his sell stop below the major resistance (now support) of 0.7220, then he will be OK.
To be realistic I think the S/R to watch for would be the .7200 psycho right? .7220 seems a little bit random, when .7200 is a psycho and has more touches/bounces.
Bang.
  • #2,591
  • May 1, 2009 9:04pm May 1, 2009 9:04pm
The funny thing about PASR is that people seem to have trouble with both PA and SR. I liked Strat's post on hammers and I thought I'd share a couple of other views that might help someone to see it.

First, my own view comes from years of trading pullbacks where I decide on the probable trend then wait for price to pull back (which increases liquidity for a further move) and then continues. What one is looking for in this type of trading is a micro-version of the big PASR.

a) You want probable support for the pullback - and the SR part could come from the high that price just broke out of or from earlier swings back. Once you have a zone then you have a good probability that if you get PA then you will be rewarded for taking the bet.

b) Then you want an indication that this SR will hold and the trend will resume. SR alone gives you X% chance of resumption and some people will trade that. SR + PA gives you X+Y% chance and thats what Strat is suggesting you wait for.

When you have SR you know that the big boys will be thinking "here's where its worth getting in again so we'll start buying as it approaches SR." And some of them will. But until the PA is formed you don't know whether the buyers are winning over the sellers. When the PA is finished then everyone (good pa can be seen by most people) will be saying "the buyers are winning" so everyone will see that, if they want to get back into the trend they have to start buying now. Hence the momentum.

So I am looking for something that shows that price rejected prices below support. It could be a hammer, a doji, a pinbar, or it could be a test and then a retest.

But first comes a zone where "everyone" can see that price is likely to stop and move away. That gets buying from some. Then comes PA that shows that the buying has been happening and it seems to be winning over selling. And that gets commitment from others. And the clearer the PA, the more people know that they have to get in now or miss out ... and you get support from all those buyers.

Anyway - that's my view of why what Strat is teaching is worth learning.


For another view, from an excellent article from a professional trader, Tim Morge, where he talks about price rejection ... this is a compressed firefox document from http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/a...ngtraders-4280
.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip AML - Great Separation.html.zip   113 KB | 1,039 downloads
  • #2,592
  • May 1, 2009 11:22pm May 1, 2009 11:22pm
Quoting strat
Thanks, Blackeagle. This is another pair I have never followed!

How correlated is this with USDCAD and, in your opinion, is it too correlated to trade both USDCAD and EURCAD?
CAD is the common currency here. If price move is caused by CAD only, then you'll see perfect correlation, but this is rare, IMO. Because there is a third pair effecting the move which is EURUSD.

When I look at USDCAD and EURCAD charts together, I don't see a particular correlation, but one should be careful when opening positions both on USDCAD and EURCAD, especially when one is long and one is short as CAD is not the base currency in either case. In that case, you'll be trading EURUSD and if you have EURUSD open position, then you'll be either doubling your EURUSD position or squaring it.
  • #2,593
  • May 2, 2009 1:17am May 2, 2009 1:17am
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

With regard to S & R lines and only being interested and marking them on charts on the open and close of levels.

When I check after the close of the week to add/amend the S R lines...

What would you advise/perfer us to do? many thanks, Nicole
Nicole,

This is how I draw SR lines. I start with monthly and try to determine obvious SR lines. To do that, max. zoom out your chart and always switch between candle and line charts to see if high/low prices have any meanings relative to closes, if highs/lows are fakes or they are just price shootings/anomalies.

Then go down to weekly tf and do the same thing. SR lines that are not too obvious on monthly are clearer on weekly, therefore, normally my SR line drawing procedure is complete at this stage and I go down to daily tf to fine tune the ones drawn on weekly and monthly. Don't forget to switch between candle and line charts on weekly, too.

Re. daily charts, I either use them to fine tune SR lines drawn on monthly and weekly or if the price is in uncharted territory, I try to determine new SR lines.

You don't need to use open prices to draw SR lines because FX market is not like equities or commodities, since it is a 24hr market, open prices are normally just a few pips away from close prices except Sunday openings. For Sunday case, you can use Friday's close instead of Sunday opening, that's fine.

If you draw your SR lines correctly, then you don't need to amend your lines everyday or every week. They are valid for a long long time. Do you know that 0.7300 level on AUDUSD is coming from 1994? Only if you are in uncharted territory, then you can amend your recent lines depending on how the chart shapes up.

One last hint is that you should see these SR lines as a thick line, not a pinpoint and then watch PA around those lines. Because sometimes PA does not give us enough clue around SR lines or move through those levels without stopping due to news or strong momentum in which case we pass the trade. This is where patience and discipline play a vital role in trading, because if price gets away from recent SR line due to lack of PA, then you need to wait the price reach the next SR line.

Now, if you open your EURGBP chart and do the things I have tried to explaine above (because I believe EURGBP is the most clean chart to practice SR lines), and then switch to other pairs and do the same practice, I believe you'll have more confidence in drawing SR lines correctly.

Hope this helps.
  • #2,594
  • May 2, 2009 1:19am May 2, 2009 1:19am
Quoting rogueforex
I want to first apologize for my delays this last week ....
No need. You are doing a great job. Much appreciated by all.
  • #2,595
  • May 2, 2009 6:01am May 2, 2009 6:01am
Quoting kiwi_trader
The funny thing about PASR is that people seem to have trouble with both PA and SR. I liked Strat's post on hammers and I thought I'd share a couple of other views that might help someone to see it.

.
That was really helpful, Thanks Kiwi trader!
  • #2,596
  • May 3, 2009 6:34am May 3, 2009 6:34am
Just reminder that Sunday/Monday is a Japan and UK Holiday ...
  • #2,597
  • Edited May 4, 2009 12:54am May 3, 2009 2:22pm | Edited May 4, 2009 12:54am
Hello Strat & fellow traders,


I am new to FF and have been lurking the past few weeks reading up on this thread. I have read the entire thread word for word and its amazing! I have already learned a wealth of great information on PASR and have since threw all of the misleading indicators out!

I little backround on myself, I am 23 years old i have been involved with the markets for about a year and a half now, have read stacks of books and studied the markets and charting for countless hrs! yet i think i have a better understanding of it all after reading just 175 pg of your thread.

Up untill now i have traded only the US stock market with minimal success only recently, mainly trading the energy sector. I have been on FX demo for the past two months and am willing to only go live when truly ready.

I will register myself on the path of learning and look forward to becoming a better trader.



Thanks,

Craig
  • #2,598
  • May 3, 2009 5:46pm May 3, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Hellow Strat & fellow traders,


I am new to FF and have been lurking the past few weeks reading up on this thread. I have read the entire thread word for word and its amazing! I have already learned a wealth of great information on PASR and have since threw all of the misleading indicators out!

I little backround on myself, I am 23 years old i have been involved with the markets for about a year and a half now, have read stacks of books and studied the markets and charting for countless hrs! yet i think i have a better understanding of it all...
It's that good is it? Maybe I ought to read it!

Glad you can join us, Craig, post when you are ready.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,599
  • May 3, 2009 6:58pm May 3, 2009 6:58pm
Sunday's bar seems to be telling us alot. AUD/USD looks to be going higher without any rest or respite.
Bang.
  • #2,600
  • May 3, 2009 7:25pm May 3, 2009 7:25pm
I don't know how you chart looks but on my feed there is another IB so I'll keep my order in place until it breaks the high of the IB.
32 traders viewing now