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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,641
  • Edited 5:45pm Apr 30, 2009 3:36am | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting fishmen
Dear all,
Here is my little point of view on GBP/USD.

Price has been confined between 89 and 200 since 21, Apr. All MAs are flat, a consolidation period. Now it break the downtrend channel and 89. Last two candles found support on 89. But the last candle failed to close above price level 1.4772. I view this as a main resistance, u can see how many times price bounce back from this level. The current candle is trying hard to close above this level. If it DOES. Then it will go further to hit the bottom of the previous up channel. Today,however,...
I entered long @1.4802. First target 1.4869, second 1.4945. third 1.5045.
the first two targets had been hit. Let the last one go with 65 trailing stop, profit lock 73pips.

Reasons to take this trade:
1.price broke 89 and the 1.4771 level, stood above it for sometime. I did not long yesterday since it is USD federal funds rate day.
2.MACD trend continue.

It was support by a not bad news Nationwide HPI m/m. Dont know whether it will break the resistance. Current high 1.4945.
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  • #19,642
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:00am Apr 30, 2009 4:00am
Quoting Pipmaniac
LOL I took it also,entered at 9:00 ,thought about to exit before my SL get hit cause of the strong bullish candle at 10:00 but after I saw your post I decided to stay and......what a mess SL hit
Hello my friend,

I was watching that trade very closely and when I saw that bullish candle I decided to get out and reverse my trade as I mentioned in my previous post....I saw a lot of sign of slowing down and that bullish candle raised the red flag for me and when I saw it close above the 21ema and retested it in the following candle and was pulling away, i reversed my position and went long.....I did not have time to post the trade at the time.........................I also lost pips on that trade but I managed to gain them back on the reverse trade which I am still in and am looking for price to get close to the 89sma, my position currently is @ break even and we'll see if price will make it to the 89sma......

It is our losses that we learn from...........you cannot be a great trader without having losses........failure is a big part of success if we know how to learn from it.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,643
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:03am Apr 30, 2009 4:03am
Quoting fishmen
I entered long @1.4802. First target 1.4869, second 1.4945. third 1.5045.
the first two targets had been hit. Let the last one go with 65 trailing stop, profit lock 73pips.

Reasons to take this trade:
1.price broke 89 and the 1.4771 level, stood above it for sometime. I did not long yesterday since it is USD federal funds rate day.
2.MACD trend continue.

It was support by a not bad news Nationwide HPI m/m. Dont know whether it will break the resistance. Current high 1.4945.
Great trade ! Congratulations on all those pips.
  • #19,644
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:07am Apr 30, 2009 4:07am
Quoting welshguy2000
Closed at my TP: 1.4783 ( + 149 pips)

Please see the video review of this trade here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dTehzTxDrA

Please subscribe to my channel to receive updates of when new videos are added.
Great video as usual, WG Thanks.
  • #19,645
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:36am Apr 30, 2009 4:36am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I have updated my price wave (80+/-pips), which marked as L2,L1, M, H1 and H2 and the Equidistant Channel (see pink channel) as I see the market is now in uptrend mode. As per charts below, this pair is now stay around price level H1 (1.3380) as the market almost reach the OVERBOUGHT level as per RSI... Price should be retrace to at least price level M (1.3000) if the market getting weaker before it continue uptrending. Time well tell everything though...
Oh yeah...just as I predicted as in my previous post...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,646
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:21am Apr 30, 2009 5:21am
Hi all...

I will not be online tomorrow so I have finalized my chart and here is the latest update of my fibo level and equidistant channel.

EU should move within the pink channel if the market still bullish for the next few week.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,647
  • Apr 30, 2009 7:46am Apr 30, 2009 7:46am
Can someone post the rsi indicator with those color bars as in previous post.

Thanks
  • #19,648
  • Apr 30, 2009 1:21pm Apr 30, 2009 1:21pm
You can find the additional info at http://www.fxtradeblog.com

Stopping by for a moment.....Past weeks have been hectic...
  • #19,649
  • Apr 30, 2009 1:53pm Apr 30, 2009 1:53pm
Good afternoon all,

I hope there are some of you who profited very well with the nice run up on the GBP and the EUR we had in the last 24 Hours. I was in my USD/JPY trade which I anticipated to test the 89sma which it did and more........I closed my position just below the 89sma as I was going to bed and did not want to give up a nice profit.
Entry was made @ 97.24 and 97.72

Average of 47 Pip gain.........

My thoughts on the EUR/USD

Price made a higher high crossing over the 200sma on the 4H time frame. Price then slightly pulled back and made another higher high before settling and retracing back to fill the 8ema gap with a nice bearish engulfing candle. Setting up the Fibo lines from the Low of leg @ 1.2961 and the high of that leg @ 1.3384 give us the 50% retracement line of 1.3172 which price retraced close to that which happen to be close to the 21ema as well. The last candle made a nice hammer after it retraced to past the 21ema but failed to close below it.........This is an important hammer as it shows the buyers coming in and the momenum might be to continue it's bullish run up. the last run up leg was about 400 pips and we just had about a 200 pip retracement........If price keeps up its bullish momentum, the next leg up might be up to the 1.3350 price point which is also the high of April 6/2009.

In the next couple of hours or later tonight, the MACD might give us a nice TC off of the 21 and that would be a nice entry point if you are looking for one. more aggressive traders might want to find an entry point in the shorter time frames.

Share any of your thoughts or opinions and questions are always welcomed
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,650
  • Apr 30, 2009 7:14pm Apr 30, 2009 7:14pm
please give me your input

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/8609/golong.jpg
  • #19,651
  • Apr 30, 2009 7:52pm Apr 30, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting fxnoob08
please give me your input
Yes. I will long if it closes above 200sma and MACD give a TC. Put SL under the recent low.
  • #19,652
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:04pm Apr 30, 2009 8:04pm
thanks for the input. this thread is great and is an amazing learning experience for me after blowing 4 accounts and a few thousand dollars.

would you please give me your input on my analysis of the usd/chf pair below:

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/5/shorto.jpg
  • #19,653
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:12pm Apr 30, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting fxnoob08
thanks for the input. this thread is great and is an amazing learning experience for me after blowing 4 accounts and a few thousand dollars.

would you please give me your input on my analysis of the usd/chf pair below:
USD/CHF runs opposite to E/U. If u long E/U then u can short U/CHF and vice versa.
  • #19,654
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:14pm Apr 30, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting fishmen
USD/CHF runs opposite to E/U. If u long E/U then u can short U/CHF and vice versa.
supposes i didn't have e/u chart up though, how would you rate my analysis. and would you short based on the bearish engulfing pattern alone.
  • #19,655
  • Edited May 1, 2009 10:58am Apr 30, 2009 8:29pm | Edited May 1, 2009 10:58am
Quoting fxnoob08
supposes i didn't have e/u chart up though, how would you rate my analysis. and would you short based on the bearish engulfing pattern alone.
I think this engulfing is too small.
u see the chart i included. Currently price is testing a support line. MACD still show green. Short if it closed below the support line and MACD give u a red color. This is only my point of view.

There is a head and shoulder forming in AUD/USD. Wait and See

Finally AUD/USD form a TC. It did not break the neckline. Everything is possible.
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  • #19,656
  • May 1, 2009 6:16am May 1, 2009 6:16am
TO ALL PEOPLE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM!!

If you are following this system by the rules correctly then you can use this information to compare yourself results against mine for April.

You can find video reviews of all the trades I have done on my youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith

MONTHLY RESULTS (01-04-2009 : 30-04-2009):

Trades: 10
Winners: 9
Losers: 1

Total pips: 553

Total % return on account: 6.90%

Hopefully that will help you understand that you do not have to take every signal and work out which are the high probability trades.

Cheers WG
  • #19,657
  • May 1, 2009 8:16am May 1, 2009 8:16am
Quoting welshguy2000
TO ALL PEOPLE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM!!

If you are following this system by the rules correctly then you can use this information to compare yourself results against mine for April.

You can find video reviews of all the trades I have done on my youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith

MONTHLY RESULTS (01-04-2009 : 30-04-2009):

Trades: 10
Winners: 9
Losers: 1

Total pips: 553

Total % return on account: 6.90%

Hopefully that will help you understand that you do not...

Very nice return. I'm not quite there yet. And, thanks for the video's. They're certainly helpful.
  • #19,658
  • May 1, 2009 9:19am May 1, 2009 9:19am
someone please analyze my conclusion on the usd/chf trade below:

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/8744/shortloser.png
  • #19,659
  • May 1, 2009 9:39am May 1, 2009 9:39am
Afternoon all,

I have entered a long of the GBP on a pull back on the 1H chart. I have used the 4H candle as my entry signal, but obtained a better entry point via the 1H. As you will see the price found support around the 1.4760 / 80 region. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bullish engulfing candle close on the 4H, which closed aggressively above previous resistance.

2) Price found support off the 8 & 21EMA's.
3) Strong momentum shown on the 1H charts which should carry a high probability trade.
3) Price action found support off the 50% fib level & old resistance level from daily chart.
4) Good angle and separation of the EMA's confirming upward move.

Entry @ 1.4751
TP: 1.4953 (Just below 100% fib line & bottom of old price channel)
Sl: 1.4673

I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade ocer the weekend which should will answer any questions?

To receive updates of my videos please subscribe to my channel in my signature: http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith

Cheers WG
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  • #19,660
  • May 1, 2009 10:56am May 1, 2009 10:56am
Quoting welshguy2000
Afternoon all,...
Hi WG, A very good entry. Do u normally enter when price pull back to 50% of the signal candle?
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