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  • #2,561
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:20pm Apr 30, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting Naws
Thanks for that explanation Strat, it makes sense, so it doesn't really matter if the regular traders recognize the bar, it just shows us that sentiment is changing and gives us a clue of what the market makers might do next
Yes, you always need to be understanding candles and reading beneath the surface.

There is always a reason for what price does.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,562
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:24pm Apr 30, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting Naws
Attachment

Strat you said to watch this level for a breakout because price is in between the 20 and 50. We have an inside bar with a confirmation candle, is this a valid bullish PA in your opinion? Entry would go above the 1.6950 resistance area.
Today's bar is an IB4 but for where you guys are right now, don't touch it UNTIL you see clear PASR. Watch and see what happens and learn from it but don't risk anything.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,563
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:26pm Apr 30, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

I know you are not going to fall for it. Well I've tried, man you're good.
Thanks.
Hmm, the testee testing the tester - too much tester os on me!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,564
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:31pm Apr 30, 2009 11:31pm
Why don't you consider it a clear PASR? What would be a valid PA in this case?
  • #2,565
  • May 1, 2009 2:08am May 1, 2009 2:08am
An innocent puts his head on the block:

AUDUSD
Daily trend is UP
Shooting star on R at 0.72827
Ist SR at 0.7197 is not as strong as 2nd SR at 0.7039 and 0.7010 confluence.
To Short would be against overall trend so what is W1 and MN doing?
Target would be 0.70383ish level.

USDCAD
Daily trend DOWN
Hammer over support at 1.18358
First R at 1.2035 is weak
Second R at 1.2210 stronger
Long would be again trend.
What is W1 and MN doing?
Target would be 1.23981 confluence.

Now......what have I done wrong there?? There must be lots of errors so I rely on people to put me right.

Help!

LEM
  • #2,566
  • May 1, 2009 2:41am May 1, 2009 2:41am
Quoting strat
I can go back as far as 1979 on my data and see the same thing - 1.1900 has been the line in the sand and mainly support.

So, yes Dan, this is an important level - a bloody important level!

Blackeagle is more "in tune" with key levels, so let's wait for his words of wisdom
I can go back as far as 1991 on my data, and I see two major supports at 1.2000 and 1.1800. If you look at weekly close data, 1.1900 has been a support since Nov. last year.

Although we see LH-LL since March 2009 on daily, unless 1.18 not broken decisively, weekly chart shows we are in a wide consolidation range
( between 1.1800 - 1.2900 ) of previous uptrend since Oct. 2008.
  • #2,567
  • May 1, 2009 3:49am May 1, 2009 3:49am
Another possible setup is forming, watch PA around 1.5700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD - Daily.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #2,568
  • May 1, 2009 6:22am May 1, 2009 6:22am
Quoting Lotuselanman
An innocent puts his head on the block:

AUDUSD
Daily trend is UP
Shooting star on R at 0.72827
Ist SR at 0.7197 is not as strong as 2nd SR at 0.7039 and 0.7010 confluence.
To Short would be against overall trend so what is W1 and MN doing?
Target would be 0.70383ish level.

USDCAD
Daily trend DOWN
Hammer over support at 1.18358
First R at 1.2035 is weak
Second R at 1.2210 stronger
Long would be again trend.
What is W1 and MN doing?
Target would be 1.23981 confluence.

Now......what have I done wrong there??...
Hi LEM, it would be good if you could post your charts along with your analysis so the rest of the group can see what you're seeing.

We all have different feeds and my chart feed might look completely different from yours (although key areas should be in a similar vicinity).

Don't worry about being critised or put down for your analysis or charts, it doesn't happen on here, or when it does, it's done to help you and is constructive.

My USDCAD didn't show a hammer last night so i took the AUDUSD shooting star but felt uneasy about it to be honest. It was off resitance but something about it didn't ring true which i couldn't put my finger on.

When in doubt, stay out!

However the risk was within my plan and was covered three-fold by locked in profit on earlier trades this week, so i played it, which is a warning sign in itself.

I woke up this morning to see it hadn't behaved as a classic shooting star should, and i hadn't been filled, so deleted my order.

Perhaps pick a few pairs this weekend and post your thoughts on what the monthly and weekly are trying to tell us, and what that means for the daily.

  • #2,569
  • Edited 6:59am May 1, 2009 6:38am | Edited 6:59am
Hi,
20 and 50 are parallel
trend on the day is neither up or down
we have a higher low on the 50
which could lead to 1.3450 level. (66.6 Fib)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: er.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #2,570
  • May 1, 2009 6:42am May 1, 2009 6:42am
Quoting strat
I'm sure these charts are trying to tell me something but I can't seem to find Strat's manual!
My comments were based on Strat's charts in his test message #2542 Hello, Hello, Hello was the title. At least I presume it was a test message and we were being invited to do an analysis. Maybe I got that wrong. There haven't been any other responses so far.

So the charts are in his message.

Thanks for your response.

I tried a couple of minimal trades last night, both shorts in EUR/USD AND EUR/GBP but neither triggered and I deleted them. I'm quite relieved as you seem to be about yours. I suppose eventually it will all become second nature but at the moment there seem to be a dozen balls to keep juggling in the air at once. But I look forward to the time I feel really in control of what I understand and the action I then take.

I will do what you suggest at the weekend.

By the way, where do we go to get to see the stuff Strat posts for people registered on The Path?

Best etc.....
  • #2,571
  • May 1, 2009 6:47am May 1, 2009 6:47am
Quoting Lotuselanman
My comments were based on Strat's charts in his test message #2542 Hello, Hello, Hello was the title. At least I presume it was a test message and we were being invited to do an analysis. Maybe I got that wrong. There haven't been any other responses so far.

So the charts are in his message.
Sorry LEM

(still a good idea to base your response on what you see on your charts though, rather than Strat's)
  • #2,572
  • May 1, 2009 9:48am May 1, 2009 9:48am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I tried a couple of minimal trades last night, both shorts in EUR/USD AND EUR/GBP but neither triggered and I deleted them. I'm quite relieved as you seem to be.....
Don't worry about those, but do keep an eye on today's close. As Strat says there is always a trade being set up, or in this case like five.

On EUR/USD my data shows a massive doji, not good for trading. I'm not sure what you saw on EUR/GBP. Different data, different results.
Bang.
  • #2,573
  • May 1, 2009 10:31am May 1, 2009 10:31am
Hi Strat

With regard to S & R lines and only being interested and marking them on charts on the open and close of levels. I've been doing this as you advise.

Now the question is:- I've just checked some weekly charts and some are lining themselves up to be dojis. (EurChf;UsdChf). When I check after the close of the week to add/amend the S R lines, is it best to put on the narrow range of the doji and also the previous weekly open and close as well? Or do you ignore doji's open and close as it's such an indescion point and put S R lines on H & L of the week?

What would you advise/perfer us to do? many thanks, Nicole

P.S the chart is a screen shot from my online broker, posting from work during the day, until new lappy arrives, then I'll be posting in the evening again.

P.P.S I'm now scrolling further left on my charts to check SR; thanks for the feed back.
Attached Image
  • #2,574
  • Edited 11:51am May 1, 2009 10:51am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Naws
Why don't you consider it a clear PASR? What would be a valid PA in this case?
If you are referring to the BUEB on April 27, I have discounted it because there was no bullish action to follow the next day. Unless today, breaks the high, this will be IB5.

Baba G already discussed IB4s in previous posts so please have another look at those.

I have two reasons for not considering it:

1) I want all new traders to focus on the two main price reversal bars, get to know them and trade them and make money from them until it's like robbing a bank. THEN, you can move onto other set ups. If you try and do every set up that shows itself you will become a jack of all trades and Master of None. The jacks usually end up with diddly squat and the Masters with all the loot.

2) GBPCHF is still in hibernation - until she wakes up, I'm going elsewhere.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,575
  • May 1, 2009 11:10am May 1, 2009 11:10am
""My USDCAD didn't show a hammer last night so i took the AUDUSD shooting star but felt uneasy about it to be honest. It was off resitance but something about it didn't ring true which i couldn't put my finger on.

When in doubt, stay out!

However the risk was within my plan and was covered three-fold by locked in profit on earlier trades this week, so i played it, which is a warning sign in itself.

I woke up this morning to see it hadn't behaved as a classic shooting star should, and i hadn't been filled, so deleted my order.""

Dan, you may find deleting your order a bit premature. Today's bar has not changed the situation with price - if anything, it's confirming a move down. This looks to me like profit taking at resistance.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,576
  • May 1, 2009 11:16am May 1, 2009 11:16am
Quoting strat
Dan, you may find deleting your order a bit premature. Today's bar has not changed the situation with price - if anything, it's confirming a move down. This looks to me like profit taking at resistance.
I suppose this is all going to come to me with more experience.

The thing for me (at the moment) is, I expect these to break with momentum, as is the 'typical' nature of a shooting star or hammer, so when they don't, i see the reason i entered as a failed trade and cancel my ticket.
  • #2,577
  • May 1, 2009 11:26am May 1, 2009 11:26am
"''Now......what have I done wrong there?? There must be lots of errors so I rely on people to put me right.
Help! LEM''"

Christopher, I may be wrong, but it seems to me you are trying to trade with your past experience and knowledge rather than what is being taught on here. I say this because in your post, you do not seem to recognise what PASR is.

There was NO PASR to trigger a trade on either EURUSD and EURGBP and these two should be left alone anyway, until they resolve themselves within their respective triangles.

There was and is, PASR to trigger a trade on AUDUSD and you didn't have a clue!

So, I'm going to tell you what I tell others in your situation - STOP TRADING and go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning. Go back to the beginning of this thread, start at page 1 and read and UNDERSTAND every single post, don't flash read. Make a list of questions. Then learn BASIC PASR from J16 - then come back here and we'll get you to your next step.

Slow down and don't rush - the markets will always be here and trades are being set up every day.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,578
  • May 1, 2009 11:45am May 1, 2009 11:45am
Quoting Blackeagle
Another possible setup is forming, watch PA around 1.5700.
Thanks, Blackeagle. This is another pair I have never followed!

How correlated is this with USDCAD and, in your opinion, is it too correlated to trade both USDCAD and EURCAD?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,579
  • May 1, 2009 12:05pm May 1, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting AstonDan
I suppose this is all going to come to me with more experience.

The thing for me (at the moment) is, I expect these to break with momentum, as is the 'typical' nature of a shooting star or hammer, so when they don't, i see the reason i entered as a failed trade and cancel my ticket.
Remember, a price reversal bar has not failed UNTIL the OPPOSITE extreme price has been taken out.

For example, the Shooting Star:
This fails when the high price is exceeded. Until it's failed, it's still valid.

The Hammer:
This fails when the LOW price is exceeded. Until it's failed, it's still valid.
The Hammer I had on my USDCAD is now a FAILED HAMMER since the low of the Hammer has been taken out.

Breaking of price reversal bars with "thrust" or "momentum" is very good for our trading psychology as it gives us a nice "buzz" or adrenalin rush.

However, I prefer to see IBs after solid price reversal bars as it gives me a chance to get in with a discount price.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,580
  • May 1, 2009 12:11pm May 1, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

With regard to S & R lines and only being interested and marking them on charts on the open and close of levels. I've been doing this as you advise.

Now the question is:- I've just checked some weekly charts and some are lining themselves up to be dojis. (EurChf;UsdChf). When I check after the close of the week to add/amend the S R lines, is it best to put on the narrow range of the doji and also the previous weekly open and close as well? Or do you ignore doji's open and close as it's such an indescion point and put S R lines on H...
Nicole,
I'm confused with exactly how you are identifying your S&R lines. Please go back to Blackeagle's last post where he discussed identifying S&R lines, then all the other posts on that topic. If that doesn't do it, PM me.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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