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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #3,061
  • Apr 30, 2009 12:06am Apr 30, 2009 12:06am
Quoting Y2a
Sorry I took so long to reply, I never got notifications from this thread I actually had a 67% success rate, not 69% as I said earlier, my mistake

Anyhow, during the month of March, I netted a total of 126 valid signals, this is trading the four major pairs, USD/CAD and AUD/USD during the hours from 10am-2pm EST and 10pm-2am EST. I back tested the entire 24 hours of each trading day from Monday-Thursday and came to the conclusion that these were the most convenient trading times for me that gave the most valid signals, therefore...
You say that u back tested 4 pairs and found 126 valid signals for four pairs but many of those occur at the same time. You generally should not enter more than one trade exposed to the same currencies at the same time for risk of breaking money management.

ie. if you have a trade in the AUD/USD and EUR/USD both long and something happens to the USD, with a max risk of 3% each u will effectivly be risking 6%.
  • #3,062
  • Apr 30, 2009 1:21am Apr 30, 2009 1:21am
Quoting AceOfTrades
You say that u back tested 4 pairs and found 126 valid signals for four pairs but many of those occur at the same time. You generally should not enter more than one trade exposed to the same currencies at the same time for risk of breaking money management.

ie. if you have a trade in the AUD/USD and EUR/USD both long and something happens to the USD, with a max risk of 3% each u will effectivly be risking 6%.
Y2a as said used 6 pairs in backtesting, not very clear about the days/hours limits used.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,063
  • Apr 30, 2009 7:21am Apr 30, 2009 7:21am
Quoting abc997
Y2a as said used 6 pairs in backtesting, not very clear about the days/hours limits used.
Got you message. No problem buddy, I am happy if I could help someone.
  • #3,064
  • Apr 30, 2009 10:38am Apr 30, 2009 10:38am
Following Pilatus's advice getting this to work.

Last three trades banked 59 pips.

Many thanks Pilatus!

Key is patience and learn the basics.
  • #3,065
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:06am Apr 30, 2009 11:06am
Quoting rob24hrs
Following Pilatus's advice getting this to work.

Last three trades banked 59 pips.

Many thanks Pilatus!

Key is patience and learn the basics.

Well Done! Keep going.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,066
  • Apr 30, 2009 4:35pm Apr 30, 2009 4:35pm
I have tested the TF5 trading system in M1 time frame,and applied the same rules used in usual M5time frame.
Here are the screemshot of April 30.
TF5 trading system applied in M1 time frame,will give us more chance,altough they only make 10~20pips each time,but there are 3~5 valid signal per day.
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  • #3,067
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:54pm Apr 30, 2009 8:54pm
Yes. With M1, there are more opportunities, but very rarely to caption big trends. usually max 10-20pip.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,068
  • May 2, 2009 4:40am May 2, 2009 4:40am
Hello Pilatus,

I´am trading Wicker´s system on the 5min-TF and startet to use the EA to get a E-Mail on my mobile, when the EA gives a signal.

Regarding the EA I have two questions and would be thankfull, if you would tell me your experience with the EA:

1) Is it possible to get the screenshot in the E-Mail as an attachement? This would be helpfull, because I could check your filters (contraction of the guppy and steady price-movement before the signal) on my mobile, before I place a order.

2) We get the screenshot and the E-Mail-alert on the third candle (first arrow-candle, second candle, start of third candle is email-alert). How do you handle that time delay (esp. your SL on EUR-USD)? I ask this, because by starring at the chart you could enter on the candle after the arrow-candle, when the additional rules are fulfilled. On the third candle you already had price-movement in your direction and sometimes you get a small retrace, before the price moves further in your direction.

Many thanks....
  • #3,069
  • May 2, 2009 6:23am May 2, 2009 6:23am
Quoting Fulgurator
Hello Pilatus,

I´am trading Wicker´s system on the 5min-TF and startet to use the EA to get a E-Mail on my mobile, when the EA gives a signal.

Regarding the EA I have two questions and would be thankfull, if you would tell me your experience with the EA:

1) Is it possible to get the screenshot in the E-Mail as an attachement? This would be helpfull, because I could check your filters (contraction of the guppy and steady price-movement before the signal) on my mobile, before I place a order.

2) We get the screenshot and the E-Mail-alert...
Not sure if this is possible.
There are rare times that I enter a trade because EA gives me alert. This is not scapling system so you do not have to rush when entering a trade, placing stop loss etc before enter.
  • #3,070
  • May 2, 2009 8:41am May 2, 2009 8:41am
Quoting pilatus
Not sure if this is possible.
There are rare times that I enter a trade because EA gives me alert. This is not scapling system so you do not have to rush when entering a trade, placing stop loss etc before enter.

Thanks for your reply....

I think I need more patience by trading this system....

Nice weekend...
  • #3,071
  • May 4, 2009 11:47am May 4, 2009 11:47am
Hello guys

For using EA do i need to have all indicators already put in ind. box or it is just neccesery to download trend folower in expert box and open a chart?!

Please if there is anybody who can answer me

Regards



We are tradeing that our EA on 30TF and almost all pairs?! No?
Work smart not hard
  • #3,072
  • May 5, 2009 8:24am May 5, 2009 8:24am
Ok Lads Hows it Goin.

Took this trade on GBP/USD at 11.25 GMT. Waited for Long signal and when it came I had my reasons to enter the trade.

Steady price movement an hour and half before signal 30 – 40 Pips. Guppy well ordered and MACD Positive showing bullish possibility. Upward trend confirmed on 4 Hour and 30 Minute charts. I established an upward trend. No evidence of major resistance.

However I could not get any data on Volumes as Pilatus suggested to look at? The eVOLution site would not give me data for last day or this week?

Anyhow thought it all looked good, went for it and targeted DR2 for closing half position. My entry was slightly late (lime green line) and stop loss was Purple set according to my MM rules at 2:1 R/R.

Hit DR2 and closed with a 45 + Pips gain. Now waiting on slope direction change to close other half. Might close before Bernanke speaks?

Comments and criticisms very much appreciated, especially from you Pilatus, so that we can analyse what I did right and wrong and was i right or lucky?

P.s. Pilatus do you know why I couldn't get today's volumes?

Cheers
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  • #3,073
  • May 5, 2009 8:53am May 5, 2009 8:53am
Exited on slope direction line colour change. Hit my B/E and ate half my postion. Total + 24 Pips.

DR2 was strong resistance maybe should have closed entire position there.

Thoughts/ Comments.....

Thanks.
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  • #3,074
  • May 5, 2009 9:17am May 5, 2009 9:17am
Quoting Pipinaintez
Exited on slope direction line colour change. Hit my B/E and ate half my postion. Total + 24 Pips.

DR2 was strong resistance maybe should have closed entire position there.

Thoughts/ Comments.....

Thanks.
I found that this time your reasoning method moves close to what has so far been on the thread. With hindsight, I wonder whether it is wiser to exit all position when the price touching R3 or S3, without the expectation of the price going further using the Slope D. line?
Learning never stops...
  • #3,075
  • May 5, 2009 9:37am May 5, 2009 9:37am
Quoting abc997
I found that this time your reasoning method moves close to what has so far been on the thread. With hindsight, I wonder whether it is wiser to exit all position when the price touching R3 or S3, without the expectation of the price going further using the Slope D. line?
Thanks abc997

The only reason I kept half was because it was the solid red DR2 line I was looking at had it been DR3 I would have closed it all.

As far as the dashed support and resistance lines go should we be using them too? What are they and why are they different?

Cheers
  • #3,076
  • Edited 10:13am May 5, 2009 9:40am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting Pipinaintez
Exited on slope direction line colour change. Hit my B/E and ate half my postion. Total + 24 Pips.

DR2 was strong resistance maybe should have closed entire position there.

Thoughts/ Comments.....

Thanks.
If your reasons to enter a trade was because those reasons you metioned before it is ok to enter, but honestly I think it is a little risky to enter....why? Because, you are near MR1 and price was slightly bellow DR1 before signal, so not enough space to move more, next risk/reward is to high, stop loss is more than 45 pips. hmmmm....according to me, better to skip it.
But, there is one good thing to enter, price rebund from last high which can be sign of price continuation, especially if we look that we are above all last highs and that there is no recent significant high to stop us. I am not sure that price was so much steady before signal, but let say that it is, becsuse price was in range for 2 hours and that is enough time to acumulate some good volume for next move.
We do not have volume today because CME do not gives us volume from yestrday probably because it was some holiday.....not sure.
  • #3,077
  • May 6, 2009 4:25am May 6, 2009 4:25am
[quote=pilatus;2714272]If your reasons to enter a trade was because those reasons you metioned before it is ok to enter, but honestly I think it is a little risky to enter....why? Because, you are near MR1 and price was

Oh yeah of course it was Bank Holiday on Monday.

Thanks for the advice.

One thing I wasn't sure of though, you said price was below DR1 before signal, is that a Problem? I thought because price had broken DR1 it would be a good time to get in? Is it because it does not class as a break and may retrace?

Thanks Man
  • #3,078
  • May 6, 2009 5:03am May 6, 2009 5:03am
[quote=Pipinaintez;2716068]
Quoting pilatus
If your reasons to enter a trade was because those reasons you metioned before it is ok to enter, but honestly I think it is a little risky to enter....why? Because, you are near MR1 and price was

Oh yeah of course it was Bank Holiday on Monday.

Thanks for the advice....
Mine mistake, I saw that was bellow DR1 but it wasn't. Yes, then ok everything.
  • #3,079
  • May 6, 2009 5:53am May 6, 2009 5:53am
Signal on GBP/USD at 11.20 GMT

Did not take this because:
Price below max volume of yesterday (yellow line). Price range very high before signal some 100 Pips. ADP non-farm data due in less than 2 hours.



Let's wait and see what happens.
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  • #3,080
  • May 6, 2009 6:13am May 6, 2009 6:13am
Sure enough it failed.

Thanks to the logic of Pilatus that volume line was very strong resistance. I am learning a lot from Pilatus and ABC 997. I am not on your level yet but hopefully I can learn more from you and I look forward to discussing this and other trades with you both when you come on.

Thanks Guys.
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