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  • #2,541
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:04pm Apr 30, 2009 5:04pm
FTSE/DOW/audusd/nzdusd/cable and eurusd S/Stars. All on good levels on my charts.
Pick of the bunch for me is nzdusd - shooting star within the preceeding S/Star and formed RHS of H&S pattern - Boss and Big Boss equally bearish.
If the indicies tank tomorrow then usd looks like it may benefit from a flight to safety. Some good PASR all round. Choose wisely young paddowin!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,542
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:07pm Apr 30, 2009 5:07pm
I'm sure these charts are trying to tell me something but I can't seem to find Strat's manual!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 23 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,543
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:08pm Apr 30, 2009 5:08pm
Thanks MPP Blackeagle and Strat for your answer, I am practicing my SR line drawing

I have another question: why does price action work?

For example a hammer, does price tend to go up after a hammer because traders recognize it as a bullish, therefore they buy and drive price up?

Or does it go up because traders started buying during the formation of the hammer, thus forming it and then are continuing to buy?

What I'm getting at is does it matter if traders actually recognize the bar as a bullish candle? If so then this is a bit of a problem trading the daily because so many people use different time zones for their charts, so there is not consistency with the bars.
  • #2,544
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:11pm Apr 30, 2009 5:11pm
You have hammer like candles on support and resistance areas, the hammers have a bit of a shadow but is that ok? Also a trade off these is against the recent trend although they are supported by the big boss
  • #2,545
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:13pm Apr 30, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting Grimweasel
FTSE/DOW/audusd/nzdusd/cable and eurusd S/Stars. All on good levels on my charts.
Pick of the bunch for me is nzdusd - shooting star within the preceeding S/Star and formed RHS of H&S pattern - Boss and Big Boss equally bearish.
If the indicies tank tomorrow then usd looks like it may benefit from a flight to safety. Some good PASR all round. Choose wisely young paddowin!
Danny Boy!

I have ignored the Bond Shooting Star on my data - there is something horribly wrong with it!

No Shooting Stars on my data for EURUSD and GBPUSD
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,546
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:16pm Apr 30, 2009 5:16pm
E/U has respected the upper TL for 6 weeks. Today's candle pierced that TL and will close under 1.3270 resistance and at 50% fib.
Big Boss and Boss are flat and there are 3 MA's under price now.
Is this a bond?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,547
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:17pm Apr 30, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting strat
You should be aware that EURJPY is at, and nearing, interesting levels - see chart.

It is already at 126.50 which if you look in recent history on the chart, can see that this was an area of consolidation or, a price where buyers and sellers found equilibrium (balance).

A similar level can be found around 125.50ish, which is not that far off the 50% retrace at 124.72ish.

This then represents an area, 126.50 to 124.50 that we should be closely monitoring in conjunction with the BIG BOSS and BOSS to decide our future trades.
What did that Strat guy say about interesting levels?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,548
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:19pm Apr 30, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting strat
Hmm - I wonder if this means anything? Now where did I put Strat's manual on PASR?
PASR knew it did!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,549
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:27pm Apr 30, 2009 5:27pm
""TLs CHFJPY:
Two TLs are shown here.

The lower TL was drawn from the open in Jan providing significant support to the open in Feb providing significant support and projected forward - this has not come into play ....... yet ....... watch this space!""

So, did any of you lot watch "this space?"
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,550
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:31pm Apr 30, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting shoestring
E/U has respected the upper TL for 6 weeks. Today's candle pierced that TL and will close under 1.3270 resistance and at 50% fib.
Big Boss and Boss are flat and there are 3 MA's under price now.
Is this a bond?
Looks OK on your chart but there are way better opportunities out there than this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,551
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:42pm Apr 30, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Naws
Thanks MPP Blackeagle and Strat for your answer, I am practicing my SR line drawing

I have another question: why does price action work?

For example a hammer, does price tend to go up after a hammer because traders recognize it as a bullish, therefore they buy and drive price up?

Or does it go up because traders started buying during the formation of the hammer, thus forming it and then are continuing to buy?

What I'm getting at is does it matter if traders actually recognize the bar as a bullish candle? If so then this is a bit of a problem...
Way off track, young Mr Naws. It's only us small fry that mess with candles and stuff like this. You obviously didn't read, or didn't understand my ""Dr. Joe does Electronic Trading""

Here is the relevant information:

His initial observation in visiting the Exchange was one of shock. He had seen the Exchanges and Pits on TV many times and thought he knew what to expect.
Like all of us, I guess, he envisaged a very busy open pit for futures trading but what he didn’t expect was the size of the Exchange Floor with hundreds of people each sat in front of a wall of computers!

On closer inspection, each Market Maker had 30 or 40 monitors on his “wall” all linked together so that he could access each individual screen with a touch of his mouse. He was just absolutely amazed that one person could follow what was happening on so many monitors as he personally, had difficulty following his 3 monitors and still retain his sanity!

What really surprised him was that there were very few charts, sometimes none at all, on the monitors. What was on just about every monitor was price, price activity, buying and selling pressure and other information related to price. “What were these guys doing with all that information?” he wanted to know. Well, 10 years or so later from Dr. Joe’s visit, with the latest computer hardware, software, electronic wizardry and gadgetry, these guys are not doing anything any different to what Dr. Joe observed. They are WATCHING and REACTING to PRICE.

The big difference now is technology. The data shown on each monitor is integrated and networked into other computers and their software which automatically responds to changes in volatility, bid and ask spreads, volume spikes and abnormalities, exceptional order quantities, institutional trades, Government Bank trades and everything and anything influencing price activity.

For example, if volatility changed on a particular instrument, the percentage increase or decrease was immediately reflected in the Market Makers bids and asks automatically without any human input whatsoever. Similarly, and at the same time, if there were bids and asks which were incorrectly matched or “discounts” based on their software, trades were instantly and automatically initiated by the software based on the programming and parameters set by the Market Maker.

The Market Makers have their plans programmed into their software so that when all the criteria are met, their software takes over and issues the trade. This then highlights the importance of the trading plan. Where ours is mechanical, theirs is fully automated.

So, the bottom line has not really changed, the Floor/Pit traders/Market Makers are still “piggybacking” on what the market does – buy when price goes up and sell when price goes down – it’s just that now, they have very sophisticated computers and software to give them advanced notice and automatically place their trades for them.

Understanding what we are up against, (the big boys with their sophisticated hardware and systems), confirms how difficult it is (not impossible) for the little trader and how important it is for us to thoroughly know and understand PRICE ACTION and trade WITH the big boys (not against them).


In other words, our price reversal bars, S&R etc., are "key" buying and selling pressure points etc., identified for the big boys by their software in their fancy computers. All we are doing is trying to "piggy back" what they do using the information available to us
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,552
  • Apr 30, 2009 5:58pm Apr 30, 2009 5:58pm
I guess I was complicating it too much, anyways back to looking at charts there is a lot going on tonight
  • #2,553
  • Edited 7:06pm Apr 30, 2009 6:29pm | Edited 7:06pm
Aud/Usd looks like a good short, let's start with the BIG BOSS.

The BIG BOSS is looking like a retracement of the down trend. It did post a higher high, but the close of the bar is barely higher than the last swing high. The 20 has crossed below the 50 as well, which is a bearish sign.


The BOSS Is showing roughly the same. Pathetic higher highs. A double bottom formed a month or so ago which would be a bullish sign. But price has been bouncing down off the neckline. Hmm, wondering if that double bottom is very bullish after all?

Then, we come to the Daily. It has formed a beautiful shooting star off of the .7313ish resistance line, and the BOSS 50, and previous trendline which has become resistance. The risk will be 160 pips, which is within my money management. There is an S&R area below this at .7193. Looking back at this level though, it has mainly acted as resistance, not so much as support. The next area i have is the .7063 level, that will be 160 some odd pips. R/R roughly 1:1. The risk/reward is not the greatest. Other than that it looks like a good trade, I have placed my order.

Attached Image
  • #2,554
  • Apr 30, 2009 7:49pm Apr 30, 2009 7:49pm
Hi All,

USDCHF

Today candle bounced of the 50 boss and closed @ 1.1392 a very important level back in Nov 2004 low. The Big Boss broke through it and now resting on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: simchf2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,555
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:25pm Apr 30, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

USDCHF

Today candle bounced of the 50 boss and closed @ 1.1392 a very important level back in Nov 2004 low. The Big Boss broke through it and now resting on it.
I get the feeling you are trying to sell us something, patrick!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,556
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:26pm Apr 30, 2009 8:26pm
Naws, I'm sorry, I guess my reply was not the answer to your question, so second guessing your question on what is happening within a hammer and shooting star: See chart

Hammer:
We are in a downtrend and the sellers continue to sell until they reach a point where:

a) There are no more sellers
b) Buy orders are already in place

At this point, the selling dries up and price rises because of buy orders already in the pipeline. This takes price back up near the open but it doesn't go any higher because:

a) There are no more buy orders
b) Buyers are not convinced (yet), that price will go higher.

While all this is going on, the big boys are watching their monitors. When they see buy orders coming in (buying pressure) and it triggers their software, then they start buying. This usually happens on the next candle. If the big boys don't see the buy orders, they don't do anything and we end up with an inside bar.

If they see sell orders coming in and it triggers their software then they sell in which case we have a failed hammer and prices continue South.

The exact opposite is true for a shooting star at the end of an uptrend.

I hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hammer & shooting star.gif Size: 19 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,557
  • Apr 30, 2009 8:46pm Apr 30, 2009 8:46pm
Some of the indices have shooting stars or possible reversal candles at some very good levels tonight, some of them double tops.
I particularly like the CAC, the FTSE and the DOW.
I'm not saying that the rally is over but if there is a pullback tomorrow it often makes the USD stronger.
Happy Friday
Nicola
  • #2,558
  • Apr 30, 2009 10:50pm Apr 30, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting strat
I get the feeling you are trying to sell us something, patrick!
Hi Strat,

I know you are not going to fall for it. Well I've tried, man you're good.
Thanks.
  • #2,559
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:15pm Apr 30, 2009 11:15pm
Thanks for that explanation Strat, it makes sense, so it doesn't really matter if the regular traders recognize the bar, it just shows us that sentiment is changing and gives us a clue of what the market makers might do next
  • #2,560
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:19pm Apr 30, 2009 11:19pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf may 1.gif Size: 25 KB


Strat you said to watch this level for a breakout because price is in between the 20 and 50. We have an inside bar with a confirmation candle, is this a valid bullish PA in your opinion? Entry would go above the 1.6950 resistance area.
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