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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #3,261
  • Apr 12, 2007 11:33am Apr 12, 2007 11:33am
mmm i love sugar.
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  • #3,262
  • Apr 12, 2007 11:40am Apr 12, 2007 11:40am
Quoting SeekingLight
Don't see that BEOB. I got a PB at the low.
Same story as on USDCAD in effect(also pinned).
USDCAD doesn't have such a nice channel however

EURCAD is an unknown entity to me, but I spent a minute alone with it and this is what I can quickdraw you.


This chart is NOT trading advice. This is simply how _I_ would look at this.
Don't change any of your running trades just because I am posting this.

I just wanted to make you aware of a possible squeeze to either side here. Could be it gets squeezed up, exhausts after a short while and uses that impetus to smash back down to new lows.
Things like to do evil stuff like that
Could also just squeeze out to above the descending TL and find footing again in the chan and even hop that. Trichet is due today, so anything goes.

Edit: just saw the_wizard's post - yea, that 4h PB sits smack dab on that supporting trendline. So unless that goes, it's still got good support. But nothing lasts forever, eh? *g*
thought i would throw this up for you, yeah u know me and the monthly charts
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  • #3,263
  • Apr 12, 2007 12:40pm Apr 12, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting mbqb11
thought i would throw this up for you, yeah u know me and the monthly charts
That's a really nice looking chart!

These type of setups always make me wonder if people like Raczekfx got in at TL touch and just kept on holding on for quite some money

If we at least get back to 50% that should mean another nudge for USDCAD as well
Posted a monthly USDCAD with similiar pins / TL a short while ago, you'd be proud of me!
(in the PF USD/CAD thread)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,264
  • Apr 12, 2007 1:44pm Apr 12, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting the_wizard
mmm i love sugar.
Don't forget, yesterday was the second bar of a DBLHC.
Keeping it Simple
  • #3,265
  • Apr 12, 2007 1:50pm Apr 12, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting mbqb11
thought i would throw this up for you, yeah u know me and the monthly charts
hi mike
would u wait for monthly bar to close?
and if it closes heigher than it opend - but still lower than the nose - wd u still go short?
i'll wach for it pls sign me up on that trade
thx for ur very nice shots
  • #3,266
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:20pm Apr 12, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting habeeb
Don't forget, yesterday was the second bar of a DBLHC.
you're right! well spotted habeeb!
that was one hell of a move today.
it's interesting that the may contract moved 119 ticks but the august only managed 22.
i guess that is probably the result of the upcoming expiry.
  • #3,267
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:35pm Apr 12, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting shamstec
hi mike
would u wait for monthly bar to close?
and if it closes heigher than it opend - but still lower than the nose - wd u still go short?
i'll wach for it pls sign me up on that trade
thx for ur very nice shots
if the current month breaks last months bar(pin bar) then it is a valid pin bar and you can short it with proper MM and allthat good stuff

best,
mike
  • #3,268
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:11pm Apr 12, 2007 3:11pm
Okay, since I want to clear this up for anyone asking as well as for myself in my own trading - here's a mini-series on WHY IT PAYS TO HOLD TRADES!!!!

So next time when you enter a trade and go panicky after 50 pips, trying no to have all that profit disappear as it moves 20 pips against you - keep these pictures in mind.

PLEASE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETAIL - THESE TRADES ARE ALL IN DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND OF THE PAIR SHOWN.

Let's kick it off on a small timeframe - 4h, NZDUSD.

Also realize it doesn't matter where this happens - we were/are at record highs, everyone was looking for tops, even James (and I, too) got fooled into trying to see a short where there wasn't one.

After that I realized - wait. Trend is UP. I should be looking to go LONG.

And then this happened:
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  • #3,269
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:13pm Apr 12, 2007 3:13pm
A small cable example - please note what this ONE trade could have done to your account with 2% risk at the size of that 4h PB.

Stop size around 30 pips, moved 200, imagine closing at +180 -> you get 6 times your risk. Assuming risk is 2% -> that is 12% account increase ON ONE TRADE IF YOU JUST HOLD IT LONG ENOUGH.

Also a reminder to not overtrade but WAIT for the good setups.
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  • #3,270
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:15pm Apr 12, 2007 3:15pm
USDCAD - have been watching this one closely.

Tons and tons of chances to go short on this one, doesn't really matter which high you took - there were 200-400 pips in this with patience, easy.

Again - HOLDING THE TRADE would have done it.

After the trendline went things started picking up even more.
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  • #3,271
  • Edited 3:54pm Apr 12, 2007 3:19pm | Edited 3:54pm
And to finish it off with the nuclear Pip Holocaust - the EJ A-Trade.

700 pips for holding on to this from an inside bar 130 pips big.

At the very least - 5 times your risked amount, if you entered on a smaller timeframe setup, depending on stop, 5-20 times. (5-20 x 2% = 10-40%)


Lessons here:

-HOLD TRADES. Give them a CHANCE.

-There is NO NEED to use more than 2% to make INSANE returns

-There is NO NEED TO OVERTRADE. One trade can go a long way if you can just WAIT for the RIGHT moment. (all 4 trades with around 2% risked would have done 8-12% each / moved 4-5+ times their stop size)

-GO WITH THE TREND, NOT AGAINST IT



If you can read, absorb, understand and then transform these 4 basics into your everyday trading, you've got it made.

And if anyone is wondering why I am shouting, it is so that I myself may actually hear and understand it, too.

That's it, mini-series closed.
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  • #3,272
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:19pm Apr 12, 2007 3:19pm
Those are some nice trades Seeking.

I think the point you made about going with the trend is an important one.
I have found that it's easier to hold trades and let your profits run when the trade is with the trend.

When you're trading against the trend it's a little trickier and riskier to let your winner keep going. It takes a little more expertise to be able to spot whether the trend is reversing or if your trade is about to lose steam and get beat by the trend.
  • #3,273
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:22pm Apr 12, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting mbqb11
if the current month breaks last months bar(pin bar) then it is a valid pin bar and you can short it with proper MM and allthat good stuff

best,
mike
thx mike
but i'm not sure of ''break'' is it the close below the pb low ?
regards
  • #3,274
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:33pm Apr 12, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting shamstec
thx mike
but i'm not sure of ''break'' is it the close below the pb low ?
regards
shamstec, by "break" i am fairly certain mike means as soon as the price goes below the pb low. it does not have to actually close below it.
tom
  • #3,275
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:37pm Apr 12, 2007 5:37pm
calling seeking or mike,
this is a pin bar isn't it?
i know the close is not within the previous eye but it's only 3 ticks out...
besides, we've still got 23 minutes to go until the session end here in london...
tom
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  • #3,276
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:47pm Apr 12, 2007 5:47pm
here is a view of that last chart on the hourly.
i always thought there was no "sure thing" in this game but there is no way that was ever going anywhere but down.
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  • #3,277
  • Apr 12, 2007 5:48pm Apr 12, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting the_wizard
shamstec, by "break" i am fairly certain mike means as soon as the price goes below the pb low. it does not have to actually close below it.
tom
yep thanks tom
  • #3,278
  • Apr 12, 2007 6:02pm Apr 12, 2007 6:02pm
Quoting the_wizard
shamstec, by "break" i am fairly certain mike means as soon as the price goes below the pb low. it does not have to actually close below it.
tom
thx wizard
i'm waiting for g/u on w chart to show some respect to 1.980-2.000 area
then it meight be a good short
regards
  • #3,279
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:38pm Apr 12, 2007 8:38pm
There goes the daily IB, Pin Bar, and the weekly Pin Bar... and is that a reversed head and shoulder? Maybe .2000 will stop it now, or next resistence at 1.9913
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  • #3,280
  • Apr 13, 2007 2:08am Apr 13, 2007 2:08am
Wow, that OIL trade i posted a while back is flying off that support, shame i was stopped out by 1 pip. Will post later to explain why i had incorrectly placed my stop loss, need to sort my charting package out.
My Eur/Cad was stopped out for a small profit, but NZD/USD pin bar off 240 chart yesterday is going strong. My stop has now been moved to BE on that one, giving it plenty of room.
Anyone spotted the inside daily bar on GBP/JPY? Would be nice to see a break north from this one.
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