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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #28,681
  • Apr 29, 2009 7:42pm Apr 29, 2009 7:42pm
Last night I was reviewing my charts on Oanda and decided to take a long position on GBP/JPY after seeing a BUOB bouncing off of a reasonable support area.

Oanda opens candles at midnight EST, so I placed a pending order to trigger my position when the BUOB's high had been breached by 15 pips.

I identified the 1st PPZ area and placed a TP of the full position since I was not going to be awake overnight to manage the trade as/if it tried to make it higher or was rejected, and I would not be able to move me SL to break even.

Anyway...I chose to have the pending order valid for 3 hours, thinking that if the new candle had not passed the BUOB within that time frame, maybe momentum wasn't on my side.

When I woke up this morning, as murphy's law would have it, my order expired untriggered....but the move did happen as planned for over 100 pips.

I realize that candles starting at midnight EST aren't going to necessarily move a lightening speed as they are deep in the Asian session.

Any general ideas or guidelines regarding how long some of you may leave a pending order in place and the relation regarding momentum?

Or is it more an example of just a random issue that will vary with each pair and/or timeframe & trading session involved?

Thanks and happy pip hunting.
  • #28,682
  • Apr 29, 2009 7:52pm Apr 29, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting uBERpIP
Last night I was reviewing my charts on Oanda and decided to take a long position on GBP/JPY after seeing a BUOB bouncing off of a reasonable support area.

Oanda opens candles at midnight EST, so I placed a pending order to trigger my position when the BUOB's high had been breached by 15 pips.

I identified the 1st PPZ area and placed a TP of the full position since I was not going to be awake overnight to manage the trade as/if it tried to make it higher or was rejected, and I would not be able to move me SL to break even.

Anyway...I chose to...
Hey UBER

Depending on the traders style you will get a different answer. I believe in high probability setups being high momentum setups(as Jarroo says something like that). So for me the way I define momentum is through the next bar. If I have a BUOB, and the next bar doesn't trigger my buy(above the high), my order is canceled or expires. Some people don't believe in this. THey believe the bar is valid until their order is triggered or the low of the bar is taken out invalidating that BUOB. Which is right? Well I think you know my answer will be, both! It is really up to you. Practice, demo, backtesting can only confirm or deny any of these thoughts best.

Happy pip hunting to you too

Mike
  • #28,683
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:15pm Apr 29, 2009 8:15pm
hi mbqb, I watch your analysis both here and in the PF and i wonder... how long did it take you to become such a disciplined trader??
  • #28,684
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:17pm Apr 29, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting sertio
hi mbqb, I watch your analysis both here and in the PF and i wonder... how long did it take you to become such a disciplined trader??
Mike doesn't need to be a disciplined trader. Mike round house kicks his trading screen and charts become disciplined.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #28,685
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:25pm Apr 29, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting bundyraider
Mike doesn't need to be a disciplined trader. Mike round house kicks his trading screen and charts become disciplined.

Mans gotta do what a mans gotta do
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #28,686
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:31pm Apr 29, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting sertio
hi mbqb, I watch your analysis both here and in the PF and i wonder... how long did it take you to become such a disciplined trader??
Thanks, well I am on 7+ years now so you can imagine the first half of that journey. But I really attribute all my discipline coming from other endeavors(sports, poker). Eventually you beat yourself up enough times, it's either shape up or ship out.

LOL @ bundy
  • #28,687
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:40pm Apr 29, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting bundyraider
Mike doesn't need to be a disciplined trader. Mike round house kicks his trading screen and charts become disciplined.
  • #28,688
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:47pm Apr 29, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting bundyraider
Mike doesn't need to be a disciplined trader. Mike round house kicks his trading screen and charts become disciplined.
LOL!
Mike was trained by Chuck Norris.
Favourite book: "Roundhouse your way to financial freedom"
  • #28,689
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:57pm Apr 29, 2009 8:57pm
I must say I do find the current situation quite fascinating. There are several pairs tinkering with key S/R levels. USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURUSD, EURJPY have my attention. At the moment, none are backing off with any tenacity. Levels are not yet convincingly broken either. The reversals on monthly, weekly and daily EURUSD are difficult to reckon against. Fortunately, many offered convincing PB's yesterday, offering a free trade shot if holding positions at these key levels. Has the dye been cast by AUDJPY perhaps?
  • #28,690
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:01pm Apr 29, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey UBER

Depending on the traders style you will get a different answer. I believe in high probability setups being high momentum setups(as Jarroo says something like that). So for me the way I define momentum is through the next bar. If I have a BUOB, and the next bar doesn't trigger my buy(above the high), my order is canceled or expires. Some people don't believe in this. THey believe the bar is valid until their order is triggered or the low of the bar is taken out invalidating that BUOB. Which is right? Well I think you know my answer will...
I know Jim (James16) has credited me for that line of "A trades as high momentum trades", but I know you have mentioned many times momentum being inherent in high quality PA setups. This isn't your first post about momentum. I guess I just repackage it from what I learned from you.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #28,691
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:11pm Apr 29, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting Alexandra
I find the E/J weekly chart quite revealing....dichotomy between weekly and intraday leaves one burning the candle at both ends it seems!
Word of the week. Had to look that up!

It's the E/J chart that has me too. We broke the double bottom trigger on this ( and others).
That pin was creating a higher high that closed above the previous lower high. Sitting pretty snug on top too.
We broke a TL on the 4 hr meaning a possible small pullback.
The 200 EMA on the 4 hr.
We haven't made it to the %50/61.8% area yet.
We are yet to pullback to the 365EMA.
And I could keep going...

We have quite a bit of dichotomy in the pair.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #28,692
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:17pm Apr 29, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting jarroo
I know Jim (James16) has credited me for that line of "A trades as high momentum trades", but I know you have mentioned many times momentum being inherent in high quality PA setups. This isn't your first post about momentum. I guess I just repackage it from what I learned from you.

Jim
You say it perfect Jim!
  • #28,693
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:29pm Apr 29, 2009 9:29pm
Indeed...dichotomy = opportunity
  • #28,694
  • Apr 29, 2009 9:50pm Apr 29, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting jarroo
Like to see where you entered on this one catiron. Got a chart?

jaroo,

If you've got the time still, I've attached my usd/jpy trade from last night.

Daily show my entry, 4h shows where I got stopped out.

By way of introduction, and perhaps as a warning to those who might be tempted to trade the very short timeframes, I've been trading for about a year and a half. Picked-up on j16 last fall and had a terrific run Oct-Jan where I nearly doubled my account. All those trades were on the 5m time frame(!) (old habit). Feb, Mar and now Apr have been been modest losers, and I am now convinced that my early success with 5m was a fluke. So now I am committed to daily/weekly/4hr, but have a bit of a learning curve to work through at the higher timeframes. It is amazing what I continue to learn by reading how you and many others plan your setups. Thanks again.

btw - I loved your 4 hr aud/jpy setup from last night. Looks like you saw the daily trigger, but moved to 4hr to improve r:r. Correct? Is that a common strategy for you?

catiron (John)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"A is A"
  • #28,695
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:08pm Apr 29, 2009 10:08pm
In my charts above, I set my stop to break even after about a 30 pip move up. the trade obvioulsy worked out well after i was stopped out early.Should have held my original stop longer.
"A is A"
  • #28,696
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:18pm Apr 29, 2009 10:18pm
Quote
Depending on the traders style you will get a different answer. I believe in high probability setups being high momentum setups(as Jarroo says something like that). So for me the way I define momentum is through the next bar. If I have a BUOB, and the next bar doesn't trigger my buy(above the high), my order is canceled or expires. Some people don't believe in this. THey believe the bar is valid until their order is triggered or the low of the bar is taken out invalidating that BUOB.
Thanks for the quick response.

I lean more towards your first description of the BUOB being broken by the very next bar. At least that's the PA I'm focusing on for now.

Where I got tripped up last night was the following: I was placing the trade on a Daily chart but for some reason decided that when the new bar opened I would give it an arbitrary 3 hours to "prove" to me it had the momentum to breach the BUOB's high.

For some reason I thought that if the new daily bar took longer than that, it wasn't going to be "strong" enough.

LOL.....amazing the things we (I) can invent about a subject I should just be observing and not predicting.

Thanks, as always for your input...much appreciated.
  • #28,697
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:22pm Apr 29, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting moneybags
Mike was trained by Chuck Norris.

yep and now ole chuck crosses the street when he sees the boz coming.

  • #28,698
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:29pm Apr 29, 2009 10:29pm
Quoting catiron
In my charts above, I set my stop to break even after about a 30 pip move up. the trade obvioulsy worked out well after i was stopped out early.Should have held my original stop longer.

catiron, your post below was a response to dengzhi's trade on the Daily AudJpy. Which even with a 10 pip buffer, above the break, you would have had a 1 pip draw down.

Quoting catiron
I agree 30 pips was a little tight, but not being an A+, i wanted to get to BE fast. I wasn't one of the winners, but I didn't lose, either. Nice trade for you.
Now, I see you have the Usd/Jpy charts posted. Can I ask you which pair did you trade?
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #28,699
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:45pm Apr 29, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting catiron
jaroo,

If you've got the time still, I've attached my usd/jpy trade from last night.

Daily show my entry, 4h shows where I got stopped out.

By way of introduction, and perhaps as a warning to those who might be tempted to trade the very short timeframes, I've been trading for about a year and a half. Picked-up on j16 last fall and had a terrific run Oct-Jan where I nearly doubled my account. All those trades were on the 5m time frame(!) (old habit). Feb, Mar and now Apr have been been modest losers, and I am now convinced that my early success...

I going say it was the Usd/Jpy. Quick answer would be a that your buffer was 16 pips from the break. If it was 10 pip buffer then you would have been safe.

But more importantly there is nothing wrong with being stop out at break even then watching it run. It happens to me all the time. I blame my select of the quality of the PA setup, which it is most of the time when this happens.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #28,700
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:14pm Apr 29, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting jarroo
...But more importantly there is nothing wrong with being stop out at break even then watching it run. It happens to me all the time. I blame my select of the quality of the PA setup, which it is most of the time when this happens.

I think you're right, there are enough good setups that will run. To be at break even during a pull back on a weaker setup is better than risking a loss.
"A is A"
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