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  • #2,501
  • Edited 4:05am Apr 29, 2009 3:52am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting Naws
I have a fairly strong resistance at about 70.30 on audjpy. What I would like to know is how do you decide whether to take the trade or not despite the obstacles. To wait for a trade that has no near obstacles is the safest but those trades seem to be very rare and being too conservative will not get you any money. So how do you decide when the obstacles create too much risk to take the trade or when they are within your toilerable risk limit. Perhaps based on pros and cons - like you have 7 reasons to take the trade and 1 reason not to so you would...
In this particular case, although there seems to be an SR area around 70.30, I believe it is not a major obstacle, IMO. If you switch to line chart and put your horizontal line starting from 1993, you'll see what I mean.

While drawing SR lines, I am using candlecharts and line charts together, and trying to find the best possible lines. Assuming a long entry above yesterday's high, 70.30 is approx. 180 pips away at which you can take profit for certain percentage of your total position. Depending on the quality and distance of next obstacle from entry, different strategies can be used. If it is too close to the entry, it is better to see PA around that level and then decide whether to take the trade or not.

For current AUDJPY trade, I prefer to hold until 71.50-72.00 and then depending on PA at that level watch 73.50 high to see if it'll be broken for a new HH. Hope this helps.
  • #2,502
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:45am Apr 29, 2009 5:45am
Patience has paid off. First trade in a few weeks.

As we all know most of the jpy pairs produced daily hammers yesterday. I took the eur version as it made it's hammer off the 12600 SR level on increased volume and made a clear 5 wave decline, which means we should see at least an abc correction.

I'm not an elliot wave addict by a long way, but when I see a very clear 5 I put it into the analysis mix. Only if its clear though.

Entry above the diagonal TL and big boss confluence, SL below the candle low, 1st TP at the 12900 level being 38.2 fib, recent minor swing high and daily 20 ema. So a confluence there. Final TP at the 13100 level 50fib confluence.

Very pleased to wake up and see the trade triggered and in the pips, Lovely Jubbley.

SL to BE now, so a free trade.

Patience seems to have paid off.

TonyH
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  • #2,503
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:59am Apr 29, 2009 6:59am
Quoting ajhill
Very pleased to wake up and see the trade triggered and in the pips, Lovely Jubbley.
Well done Tony. I saw the hammers but nothing really got me going so declined on all setups.
  • #2,504
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:51am Apr 29, 2009 10:51am
Had a quick look at the charts there. Last night I wrote out 6 potential trades (from 18 charts I look at), Sl, entry level, targets, then found a reason not to trade them. Obviously I'm not at the stage to enter all 6 but every one of them has gone my way. I should take this as a plus I guess but feeling a tad frustrated.

AUDJPY, which has been mentioned, I dismissed as it was below the daily 20. Am I being too cautious?
  • #2,505
  • Apr 29, 2009 11:50am Apr 29, 2009 11:50am
I did roughly the same. Dismissed a lot of them because of what was happening on monthly chart. I do not see them as missed opportunity. Just because they go your way does not necessarily mean you should be in them. No need to beat yourself up over missed trades. There are others setting up as we speak. I am still waiting for a setup that makes sense to me when I see it, not after the fact. Even very poor price action can make sense after the fact. I have not traded since April 7th, that is almost a month. I am probably being over cautious, but I have not seen any trades that made sense for where I am. Keep learning and looking, over time you will know what to trade. We should not be focusing on the money but on knowledge and capital preservation. Also if you wait for a trade that makes sense from your charts, with your knowledge you will build confidence. With confidence and knowledge will come more trades, and a much higher percentage of winners.
  • #2,506
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:36pm Apr 29, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting shoestring
Hi team,
Big Boss has been going down
Boss closed below 1.2200 and Boss 20 for 2 weeks.
Daily retraced off 20MA today and is currently at 1.2200.
I like this short @ 1.2152, SL 1.2282, 132p risk
TP 1 1.2102 bring 2 & 3 to BE
TP 2 1.2002
TP 3 high of previous bar
It's OK to say "I TOLD YOU SO"! (But there was still NO PA to trigger a trade)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,507
  • Edited 12:50pm Apr 29, 2009 12:48pm | Edited 12:50pm
Hi Team
I went short with the Cad, small shooting star off the boss 100 and 20 plus resistance off a pivot line. Weekly is under 365 ma, however in a sideways market . Strat would you describe this trade as premature?

Cheers
Steve
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,508
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:02pm Apr 29, 2009 1:02pm
HI Strat
Long on the AUSUSA,momentum on the weekly with two hammers off the 20
Daily hammer phased in two positions past the boss 20.
Again I seen this as a fair trade with good R/R my question is am I flying by the seat of my pants with these type of trades and need more patience (Always need more of that)

Thanks
Steve
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,509
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:08pm Apr 29, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting Naws
I have a fairly strong resistance at about 70.30 on audjpy. What I would like to know is how do you decide whether to take the trade or not despite the obstacles. To wait for a trade that has no near obstacles is the safest but those trades seem to be very rare and being too conservative will not get you any money. So how do you decide when the obstacles create too much risk to take the trade or when they are within your toilerable risk limit. Perhaps based on pros and cons - like you have 7 reasons to take the trade and 1 reason not to so you would...
I was going to answer this but saw that MPP and Blackeagle had both done admirable jobs in answering your concerns.

The only thing I can add is that remember you are only still learning - don't beat yourself up that you can't see these or that you see obstacles preventing you from trading. Most newbies just jump in head first like Rambo without any thought of risk. You have progressed beyond that and are recognising LOSS before profit - this is something many "so called" traders would like to do so be proud of where you are right now.

As far as recognising S&R and the value to add to each, you have to be patient and study thousands of charts and practice reading them. If the only time you get to use S&R is when you are trading then you will NEVER make it. You must study and practice on history.

Blackeagle already gave you a big hint on what to look for so, just to repeat and expand on that, draw your S&R lines and then ZOOM OUT. For each line you have drawn, find out HOW IMPORTANT THAT LINE was to the pair. How many times was it support? How many times was it resistance? Was it swing support/resistance? If so, how many times? Was it MAJOR swing support/resistance? If so, how many times? Was it a consolidation price?

By doing this, you will be able to see which SHOULD be the problem areas. Nothing is perfect and don't ever expect it to be - there will always be a NEW support/resistance which takes us by surprise - but that is why we have MM.

The other thing you should do before each trade is either have targets or expectations. In other words, are you looking for a 200 pip trade or looking to get in on a new trend? You MUST know this before any trade otherwise you will come away with nothing or maybe a loss.

Naws, the best advice I can give you is, instead of watching sports on TV or whatever you do in your spare time, get out historical charts and practice identifying S&R.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,510
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:22pm Apr 29, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting ajhill
Patience has paid off....
Good lad, Tony, I'm really pleased for you - stress free as well - yes?

This was one of six trades I took yesterday for similar reasons. Seeing Elliott Waves -eh?

Patience and Discipline ALWAYS reward you - they are the part of trading psychology that accounts for 90% of our success as traders.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,511
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:28pm Apr 29, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting Bloom
Had a quick look at the charts there. Last night I wrote out 6 potential trades (from 18 charts I look at), Sl, entry level, targets, then found a reason not to trade them. Obviously I'm not at the stage to enter all 6 but every one of them has gone my way. I should take this as a plus I guess but feeling a tad frustrated.

AUDJPY, which has been mentioned, I dismissed as it was below the daily 20. Am I being too cautious?
Malcom and this goes for others too:

Don't be too reliant on the 20 - it is there as a guide and is only one of the tools in our tool box. Price HAS to go above it at some point so look for PA in the context of the overall trend to give you an idea as to when. Blackeagle gave a good summary of reasons for taking the trade so check them with yours and advise any questions.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,512
  • Apr 29, 2009 1:31pm Apr 29, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting rgrace
I did roughly the same....
I could not have said this better myself! Are you reading my notes, young Mr Grace?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,513
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:11pm Apr 29, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting cowboying
Hi Team
I went short with the Cad, small shooting star off the boss 100 and 20 plus resistance off a pivot line. Weekly is under 365 ma, however in a sideways market . Strat would you describe this trade as premature?

Cheers
Steve
Steve, I would describe this as making a trade out of nothing but well done!

There were so many things against this that I discounted looking at it for a trade.

The "shooting star" was a "Bond Shooting Star" and was really cancelled out by the prior "Bond hammer". There was support and the TL. Psycho 1.2100 WAS strong support.

The only thing favouring a short was the downtrend and momentum but without PA, I couldn't consider it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,514
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:40pm Apr 29, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting strat
It's OK to say "I TOLD YOU SO"! (But there was still NO PA to trigger a trade)
Strat,
I TOLD YOU SO....
I didn't take the trade (*$#^%&*$) Your rebuke made me rethink it, thanks.
I am learning from you, so keep it coming.
The audjpy and eurjpy didn't look good trading into the 20ma. Your post #2511 addresses this.
  • #2,515
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:52pm Apr 29, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Strat
Long on the AUSUSA,momentum on the weekly with two hammers off the 20
Daily hammer phased in two positions past the boss 20.
Again I seen this as a fair trade with good R/R my question is am I flying by the seat of my pants with these type of trades and need more patience (Always need more of that)

Thanks
Steve
If I couldn't see the green behind your ears, I would say you are doing some "cowboy" trades!

I had AUDUSD earmarked as a pair to watch to go long. I saw price bouncing off that important 0.6965ish support for the third time in seven days but no other PA to trigger an entry.

As I look again, I see the 365 also gave good support.

Hopefully, you have banked your profits on this as price was rejected by that important psycho 0.7300 level and the BOSS 50.

This trade and your USDCAD trade are what I would describe as "risky" trades and not the safe, lowest risk trades we need to be learning on.

You made good on these, but will you on the next trades?

Maybe you and Bloom should form a consortium to trade - with his caution and your risk averse approach, maybe something good would come out of it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,516
  • Apr 29, 2009 4:58pm Apr 29, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting shoestring
Strat,
I TOLD YOU SO....
I didn't take the trade (*$#^%&*$) Your rebuke made me rethink it, thanks.
I am learning from you, so keep it coming.
The audjpy and eurjpy didn't look good trading into the 20ma. Your post #2511 addresses this.
Good for you, young man!

Even knowing the outcome of that trade, I still would not have taken it.

This applies to all those who were considering trades yesterday based on PA:

Look at all your reasons to take the trade and check them against what happened.

Look at all the reasons NOT to take the trade and check them against what happened

Now, knowing the outcome, would you have traded any different? If so, what are the reasons? These are the areas to work on in preparation for the next trade.

Remember - there is no hurry - there is always a new trade being set up right now.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,517
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:03pm Apr 29, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting strat
Steve, I would describe this as making a trade out of nothing but well done!

There were so many things against this that I discounted looking at it for a trade.

The "shooting star" was a "Bond Shooting Star" and was really cancelled out by the prior "Bond hammer". There was support and the TL. Psycho 1.2100 WAS strong support.

The only thing favouring a short was the downtrend and momentum but without PA, I couldn't consider it.
Hi Strat
Thanks for the feed back, trigger happy I will step back , need to master patience.
When I have a few good solid PA trades under my belt within the Daily TF, this will build my confidence in waiting for the a low risk setup.
cheers
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,518
  • Edited 5:50pm Apr 29, 2009 5:45pm | Edited 5:50pm
OK Strat I’ll come clean, one more trigger happy trade last night , just trying to get a feel for Daily.
Big boss building some upward momentum. Weekly good bounce off support (Same as big Boss)
Daily bounce of boss 50 preceding two bars hammers (weak I know) and T/L support.
R/R looked good to me. Against heading in to boss 20 and 100, and guess what ….where is it right now (23.45 GMT) flat lined on both.

Where’s Baba G to tell me I’m surrounded by Indians.
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,519
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:48pm Apr 29, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting cowboying
Hi Strat
Thanks for the feed back, trigger happy I will step back , need to master patience.
When I have a few good solid PA trades under my belt within the Daily TF, this will build my confidence in waiting for the a low risk setup.
cheers
Hi Steve, i used to be the worst at trigger happy trading (or freestyling) - if it looked like it was going up, i'd buy, and vice versa. I would enter soley on trend which is perhaps not a bad thing...

But looking back over my journal i can see a clear growth between this and selective PASR trading, to the extent that five weeks ago, i took about 10 trades, and grew my account by 2.56%.

Two weeks ago, i took one trade, and grew my account by 2.37%...go figure!

It's diffiicult (or i find it so) to put my guns away, but seeing it in black and white has helped me force myself to be more selective, and hopefully, more successful.

Just my thoughts though.

Dan
  • #2,520
  • Apr 29, 2009 6:08pm Apr 29, 2009 6:08pm
Note that price is in the 20/50 trap AND the MAs are horizontal telling us that, for the time being, the buyers and sellers have reached agreement on price.

But for how long? This is the quiet before the storm meaning that, usually, a big move comes off flat MAs AND price in the 20/50 trap.

Don't guess the trade - wait for PASR
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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