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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,581
  • Apr 27, 2009 10:59am Apr 27, 2009 10:59am
Why did you go long?
  • #19,582
  • Apr 27, 2009 7:41pm Apr 27, 2009 7:41pm
the price may bounced off 21ema,the doji i see ,so i buy there.

maybe i should wait for another 4hour per the rule.........

i am thinking......
  • #19,583
  • Apr 28, 2009 12:14am Apr 28, 2009 12:14am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all... Since EU hit the overbought level of RSI @ H4 chart, this pair still moving within the pink channel I made and now coming back to the M level as shown in my H1 below... The R2-S2 TL is now narrowing to the edge but I still want to keep all my res/sup levels as they are right now... Fed rates is some big news that waiting ahead of us so just wait and see what will happen soon...
Hi all...

I have updated my new S2 support TL as per D1 below.

As I anticipated since last week, EU does ranging around 80pips+/- and currently right above L2 level. If the price break below S2, the next immediate support would be fib 61.8% before this pair could reach the next 80pips of its current wave pattern, which is price level 1.2900 (markes as X as per H1 below).

1.2900 should be a level that we must watch since it was the last low that brought this pair into the oversold status as per H4 sometime around last week. Another rebounce around this level would be significant to the RSI signal as well.

Comments/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 39 KB
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  • #19,584
  • Apr 28, 2009 12:35am Apr 28, 2009 12:35am
Quoting ssq
the price may bounced off 21ema,the doji i see ,so i buy there.

maybe i should wait for another 4hour per the rule.........

i am thinking......
Yes, a doji shows indecision but it doesn't show direction. Better to wait for the next 4hr candle or go down to the 1 hour and watch for direction.

All the moving averages are coming together which also shows indecision. This is most likely due to the US Fed rate decision tomorrow. The rhythm on EU and GU is not very good right now.
  • #19,585
  • Apr 28, 2009 1:11am Apr 28, 2009 1:11am
where r u from ? china?I'm also a Chinese from Malaysia.
  • #19,586
  • Edited 1:30am Apr 28, 2009 1:13am | Edited 1:30am
Good evening all..............
My USD/JPY trade I took this afternoon.....sorry i did not get to post earlier.

Type of Setup: riding the 8ema
1st reason: Price has been riding the 8ema without closing beyond the 21ema for about a week.
2nd reason: 8ema caught up to price/entry made on zero break on 1H time frame.
3rd reason: -DI line crossed over +DI line on 1H time frame

Price Targets:
1) 96.45 (+20 pips) TP hit
2) 96.45 (+20 pips) TP hit
3) 96.15 (+50 pips) TP hit
4) 95.80 (+85 pips) TP hit
5) 95.30 (+135 pips)

Edit:
My first 4 targets have been hit when I just got home.......I will let the last one run........

Please do not hesitate to ask any questions
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 1h.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 4h.gif Size: 47 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,587
  • Apr 28, 2009 1:35am Apr 28, 2009 1:35am
Quoting choontianz2
where r u from ? china?I'm also a Chinese from Malaysia.
FROM CHINA.
  • #19,588
  • Apr 28, 2009 3:07am Apr 28, 2009 3:07am
Quoting orangeRANGE
As I anticipated since last week, EU does ranging around 80pips+/- and currently right above L2 level. If the price break below S2, the next immediate support would be fib 61.8% before this pair could reach the next 80pips of its current wave pattern, which is price level 1.2900 (markes as X as per H1 below).
In a week or two, if the market keep on weakening (also depending on H4 rhythm and rules), I am predicting that this pair will fall at least to 1.2800 or somewhere around fib 76.4%.

Based on my D1 below, the previous 3 bars (3 days of trading) has formed 3 INSIDE DOWN pattern. But the S2 TL and fib 61.8% however, are two great immediate support levels right now.

We'll just see if if this can happen or not...only time can tell...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #19,589
  • Apr 28, 2009 3:09am Apr 28, 2009 3:09am
Quoting time1300
Good evening all..............
My USD/JPY trade I took this afternoon.....sorry i did not get to post earlier.

Type of Setup: riding the 8ema
1st reason: Price has been riding the 8ema without closing beyond the 21ema for about a week.
2nd reason: 8ema caught up to price/entry made on zero break on 1H time frame.
3rd reason: -DI line crossed over +DI line on 1H time frame

Price Targets:
1) 96.45 (+20 pips) TP hit
2) 96.45 (+20 pips) TP hit
3) 96.15 (+50 pips) TP hit
4) 95.80 (+85...
Welldone mate...!!!
  • #19,590
  • Apr 28, 2009 1:30pm Apr 28, 2009 1:30pm
Hello All,

Just an update on my last Usd/Jpy trade...........My last lot was stopped out @ breakeven..........I had a chance to close it with +100 pips but my plan was to let it run but still a nice profitable trade.

My thoughts on the EUR/USD........

On the 4H, Price had dipped below the 89sma which happen to sit by the 365ema as well. Price dipped to the 23.6 Fibo Line of the last trend. Price then retraced back up towards the 8 and 21ema but retraced all the way back up to the 89sma. According to the rules, if price crosses the 89sma, it tend to come back to it or come back to the 21ema and then continue in its original direction. Also those familiar with Elliott Wave Theory, when there is a move down as we had from April 24 till April 28, there will be 50% retracement into that move before moving back down to finish the wave.
We might even test the 61.8 Fibo Line, we'll just have to wait and see.

If price stalls here and starts to turn around, then it would be a nice time to look for short entry opportunities. But we need to wait and see what the next few candles do.

Happy Pippin Guys
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4h.gif Size: 48 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,591
  • Edited 4:13pm Apr 28, 2009 4:02pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting time1300
Hello All,

Just an update on my last Usd/Jpy trade...........My last lot was stopped out @ breakeven..........I had a chance to close it with +100 pips but my plan was to let it run but still a nice profitable trade....
I was in that trade as well. I shorted @1.3187 when price break the flag and a divergence occurred. My targets are 1.3109, 1.3025 and 1.2925. Because I thought that the previous swing last about 30 candles, so this time maybe similar. My first two targets got hit. But the last one closed out at +100 pips. I can have made 200pips (the recent low is @1.2965) for the last one. But I am still happy.
  • #19,592
  • Apr 28, 2009 4:21pm Apr 28, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting fishmen
I was in that trade as well. I shorted @1.3187 when price break the flag and a divergence occurred. My targets are 1.3109, 1.3025 and 1.2925. Because I thought that the previous swing last about 30 candles, so this time maybe similar. My first two targets got hit. But the last one closed out at +100 pips. I can have made 200pips (the recent low is @1.2965) for the last one. But I am still happy.
Hey fishmen,

congratulations on making those pips. I myself was not in the trade but was in the USD/JPY trade. I will be looking closely to see how the EUR behaves now that it has retraced back up to the 89sma.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,593
  • Apr 28, 2009 4:27pm Apr 28, 2009 4:27pm
i've gone over the exercises and pdf, and quite a few pages of this thread.

1)I still have a hard time making any pips with the zero line crosses, they often turn back on me as soon as I enter
2)agressive reversals, often end up turning on me as well.

also, it seems that people are not trading this method to the t and have diverted a bit such as taking entries on the 1h time frame, etc.....
  • #19,594
  • Apr 28, 2009 4:39pm Apr 28, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting fxnoob08
i've gone over the exercises and pdf, and quite a few pages of this thread.

1)I still have a hard time making any pips with the zero line crosses, they often turn back on me as soon as I enter
2)agressive reversals, often end up turning on me as well.

also, it seems that people are not trading this method to the t and have diverted a bit such as taking entries on the 1h time frame, etc.....
From my own point of view, chart patterns, candles are more important than the MACD signals. MACD only acts as a support.
  • #19,595
  • Edited 9:21pm Apr 28, 2009 8:47pm | Edited 9:21pm
someone please give me your input, i must be missing something from the 4hr macd strategy

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7005/forex.jpg
  • #19,596
  • Edited 10:25pm Apr 28, 2009 10:05pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting fxnoob08
someone please give me your input, i must be missing something from the 4hr macd strategy

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7005/forex.jpg
Hi fxnoob, welcome. The MACD crossing the zero line is not part of Phil's system even though one or two people have used it on this thread. Phil wanted us to concerntrate on trend continuations (TCs). The following chart of UJ shows a number of TCs which would have been successful over the last week. Notice that rather than cross the zero line, the MACD continues on with the current downward trend. You cannot rely entirely on the MACD. It helps when price also bounces off one or more of the MAs and the MACD confirms the action. According to the rules, the MACD can also break the zero line slightly like in the first example before continuing. It is called a ZB(zero break).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #19,597
  • Apr 28, 2009 10:51pm Apr 28, 2009 10:51pm
^^^thanks for that reply, i apreciate it and makes this alot more clear.

i am really trying to get the hang of this method. however one thing worries me. i've attached a chart below. phil or anyone else please give me your input on the following.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/4227/roundtop.jpg
  • #19,598
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:07pm Apr 28, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting fxnoob08
^^^thanks for that reply, i apreciate it and makes this alot more clear.

i am really trying to get the hang of this method. however one thing worries me. i've attached a chart below. phil or anyone else please give me your input on the following.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/4227/roundtop.jpg
You've got to learn PA from lower TF, especially H1 because it is taught in this method. MACD is only a supportive indicator. Please go through his teaching and learn about PA around certain MAs, which is the most important subject of all.

Goodluck.
  • #19,599
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:09pm Apr 28, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
You've got to learn PA from lower TF, especially H1 because it is taught in this method. MACD is only a supportive indicator. Please go through his teaching and learn about PA around certain MAs, which is the most important subject of all.

Goodluck.
thanks for the reply.

then additions have been made to this method? no where in his PDF does he mention we need to pay attention to the 1hr.

the MA's all seem to be in order for it to go down. are you saying you would not have gone short?
  • #19,600
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:14pm Apr 28, 2009 11:14pm
Hi all...

EU still ranging inside the pink channel I made. As per H1 below, I still keep H2 as the highest point it could reach and L2 as the lowest level as its support. I still like to use the 80pips +/- range of wave for this pair.

In longer term (W1 and MN), I think this pair still can bottoming until around 1.2400. Just my rough prediction though.

Comments/questions are most welcome.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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