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  • #2,381
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:46pm Apr 24, 2009 10:46pm
I don't want to give a wrong impression re. my comments about TLs on post #2368. I always use them and agree 100% with Strat re. their worth. Please take those comments in the context of "comparison of TL vs. SR" and "which one has more significance in my trading style", if they are used individually. When they come together with PA like Strat showed on AUDJPY chart, they are the most valuable tools together.
  • #2,382
  • Apr 25, 2009 4:51am Apr 25, 2009 4:51am
I look around and say.....dry as a bone........but its interesting to see how long this slashing around the boss price action is gonna hold........We had a little munch on gbp/swiss....but really it can be sooooooo much better.......g
  • #2,383
  • Apr 25, 2009 11:47am Apr 25, 2009 11:47am
Quoting strat
CHFJPY:
Two TLs are shown here.

The lower TL was drawn from the open in Jan providing significant support to the open in Feb providing significant support and projected forward - this has not come into play ....... yet ....... watch this space!

The upper TL was drawn from the same significant open in Feb to the second significant open in mid Feb (third circle) and projected forward. Nothing happened until mid April where the TL provides confluence with the support line giving us a pretty good base from which to sneak 150 pips...
It's amazing how much we can get out of one post and a couple of charts. Don't worry..I'm not saying that I can just jump in now. Practice practice practice.
This all looks crystal clear now that we are looking in the rear view (and have an experienced guy to walk us through it). When it was happening in real-time, how did/would you enter and manage the trade?
The March 30th hammer looks awesome, but following our rules of not making decisions until the bar closes, we didn't know it was a hammer until then. Or at least we couldn't act on it.
At that point the stop loss (aka risk) would have been huge...no trade for my MM. Perhaps the % risk was acceptable for your account.

So, how did/would(didn't/wouldn't) you trade that? Is this an advanced lession?

I can hear it now. Wax on. Wax off. Good Danielson. Patience....

Thanks again. This was a great lesson. I don't know how many times I have been suckered by false trendline breaks. If I drew my trendlines like you guys and had a clue about PASR the Queen may not have taken my dinero.
  • #2,384
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:17pm Apr 25, 2009 12:17pm
Sorry Strat.....ive been trying to get round to this all week.

Strat asked me to say a few words about Swami so you could get an idea of who he is and his work.Also our link.

I have known Swami for 13 years or so and i am proud of being godfather to his kid.

We started this quest together and over the years we have wondered around these halls of learning,sometimes meeting at cross roads,sometimes not but always knowing somewhere in this madness is a mate.

Graduation i feel is when you become a Money Manager....and for so many reasons im happy to say that as of next weekish Swami will be that.......And not only that but as the original dream was we will do it together.......

Swami and I have different styles but they are complimentary.This has been obvious to us for some time but around jan this year it just clicked.

He is an Instructor on the J16 private thread and knows his shizzer......he is mad about charting and just mad all round.....so he will fit in here!!!

So wish us luck....and i wish him luck on our thread..................g
  • #2,385
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:40pm Apr 25, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the tips. I am afraid I am aldready in the trade for EURUSD.
These are why I took the risk.

The Big Boss is still consider in the up trend although she has been retraced and tested the strong support level 2600 for 6 months and also happened to be 78.6% retracement. The March candle swallowed Feb. candle.

The Boss is making higher low in the direction of big Boss and also above 365ema.

Daily, 2850-80 has been price pivot since 0ct-08 to Mar-09. Monday candle went down tested this level and closed above it. Wed candle...
Man.....you won..thank the trading gods..... heavy shizzer....i had a poor buob on wends....so i didnt......if i had have my butt ring would actualy eat me alive.......

I dont understand all your analysis...but i only speak bars so i cant comment on that....but if you took that bar as is as a buob......your lucky to be alive.If you start to allow banana bars into your Price action reading its gonna make it a slippery slope........carefull......but nice one.....hey a wins a win.......if you do it again....youll have to give me your money sorry.....g
  • #2,386
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:41pm Apr 25, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting Baba G
Sorry Strat.....ive been trying to get round to this all week.

Strat asked me to say a few words about Swami so you could get an idea of who he is and his work.Also our link.

I have known Swami for 13 years or so and i am proud of being godfather to his kid.

We started this quest together and over the years we have wondered around these halls of learning,sometimes meeting at cross roads,sometimes not but always knowing somewhere in this madness is a mate.

Graduation i feel is when you become a Money Manager....and for so many reasons im happy...
With that said, I am very pleased to advise that Swami S is joining us as our THIRD Strat Certified Trainer.

So, to date, our Strat Certified Trainers are:

Baba G
Blackeagle
Swami

All are Professional traders and Money Managers and, together with myself, have complimetary methods all revolving around PASR and trend.

If you cannot follow the Path of Learning and be CONSISTENTLY successful and profitable with these as your guide and mentor, then you should take up knitting!

I am continually looking for traders of their calibre to strengthen our teaching and training staff and particularly traders from brokers, banks, MMs, and the big boys, so if you know of any, send them our way.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,387
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:41pm Apr 25, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting Baba G
Sorry Strat.....ive been trying to get round to this all week.

Strat asked me to say a few words about Swami so you could get an idea of who he is and his work.Also our link.

I have known Swami for 13 years or so and i am proud of being godfather to his kid.

We started this quest together and over the years we have wondered around these halls of learning,sometimes meeting at cross roads,sometimes not but always knowing somewhere in this madness is a mate.

Graduation i feel is when you become a Money Manager....and for so many reasons im...
Very cool .... I think we are very lucky to have you both ...
Nic
  • #2,388
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:47pm Apr 25, 2009 12:47pm
hi nic
  • #2,389
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:51pm Apr 25, 2009 12:51pm
has anyone had a nice time with jackos stuff?.......i have never looked at his work....
  • #2,390
  • Apr 25, 2009 2:00pm Apr 25, 2009 2:00pm
On one of my psychology posts, I wrote about a guy on another thread and Forum who was trading a proven M5/M15 strategy but, for the life of him, could not make money at it. I knew he was a young guy, and, having been there, knew that he couldn’t afford to lose money. I saw all the signs of a guy wanting more to be seen by his peers as being successful than a guy wanting to make money, so I observed him as best I could. After seeing him write, post after post, how many pips he had lost, I sent him one of my “do you know what you’re doing type PMs”. He politely replied and carried on losing. It got to the point that I TOLD him to STOP trading and evaluate what he was doing wrong. Undaunted, he carried on trading and posting his losses. I then told him I hoped he was on demo. He replied it was REAL money so I sent him PMs begging him and pleading him to STOP before he LOSES EVERYTHING. Eventually he stopped and I am very happy to say he is with me on my thread and doing really, really good.


Anyway, I wanted to get inside his mind to understand why he kept on trading when he knew he was losing trade after trade so, he has kindly sent me his story.

For anyone in a similar situation – STOP TRADING RIGHT NOW!

I was first introduced to spread betting and by extension, trading, by a work colleague who had been experimenting for about 3 years and seriously making good profits for about 2 years (thus 5 years exposure in total). He used a 'recommendations' service which sent out internet alarms and SMS text messages with entry, stop, take profit levels and covered GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, Gold, Oil, FTSE & Dow. He also liked to trade the news.
It has been an ambition of mine for a few years to be able to work from home, cutting out commuting time and hassle as well as facilitating focused work time (ie no typical office 'interruptions'). I have not yet been successful in finding any potential employer with my same view (although at present I am lucky enough to have negotiated working from home every other week, which is a step in the right direction). I was therefore more than interested in any opportunity that might facilitate my earning a living from home, which this 'spread-betting' appeared to do.
I therefore signed up to this recommendations service, watched the daily videos explaining the technical analysis behind the 'calls' and placed a few demo trades. Having got to grips with the trading platform, I was already for the news of a Bank of England interest announcement. As soon as the announcement was made I placed a GBPUSD and a FTSE bet, both @ £5 a point. I used common sense for the trade direction (a cut in the rate would mean a weaker £ against the $, so that was short and would make UK companies more competitive, so that was long). For the first few seconds I had difficulty getting my ticket filled, but as soon as it was I was straight into green and the value of my bet was increasing phenomenally. (No idea of a target of course) after the first 5 minutes the 'spike' settled down into a down move, straight past my entry and after 15 minutes right to the 'automatic' stop applied to all trades by the company I was using. I lost about £1,300 (of my £1,500 account) in 15 minutes. After 90 minutes price was back up where I had originally been filled & rising.
I told the story to my work colleague who explained that he used a 'straddle' strategy (ie orders both a bit below and a bit above the price just before the announcement). That way you were guaranteed your fill price, but you had to be quick to close 'the other side' once one of your trades had been opened. He also told me he used much tighter stops (about 20 points) and had targets set (at the previous swing high / low price before the announcement) thus he usually looked to get 50 to 100 points.
Having witnessed for myself the speed with which you could make (or in my case, lose) money trading news, and now armed with the 'correct' strategy to be sure I was always on the 'winning' side and was limiting my loss with a tight stop, I was all prepared for the next announcement.
Unfortunately what I hadn't realised was that the stop levels used by my spread betting company were dramatically increased around news time, so whilst I was unable to place the stop as tight as I would like, and in the panic of the move both my orders opened, one I made a really good profit on, and the other I lost even more) so net I was down.
After a few months of this and the sometimes right sometimes wrong calls of the recommendations company I was making some & losing some, net was probably slightly down. (I had reduced my stakes greatly, as I didn't want to put any more money into my account).
I started to research the internet to see if I could find a better 'recommendation' company and came across a Forex Forum and was particularly fascinated by a 'trader' who was teaching others how to trade. Here there was much more about key price areas & levels and a candle formation called a 'pin bar.
I took what I could from this excellent free advice site (as a lurker) and started to only look for pin bars on the four hour timeframe. I found the massive stops a problem, but never the less, found trading opportunities and traded them, often making quite good profits, only to let them all go back to loss or break-evens, because my targets hadn't been made (I looked to get twice the number of pips as the pin was telling me to risk). Whilst I read a lot of 'it’s not the pin, its the position that is important' I never fully understood what this meant or how to apply it.
About a year or so after my initial forays into the spreadbetting world I saw some posts on another thread titled 'its all about the pips'. Their concept was that by trading for an hour or so a day, if you made a consistent 50 pips you could make enough to live on and actually spend your time living your life. Well I was sold, that was exactly what I wanted to achieve, work form home and have more time to enjoy my life and do all the things I never have either the time or the money for. Not only that, but here was someone who was actually doing it and willing to teach others. This thread led me to another and from there I joined their “live trading room”.
With very little left in my trading account I 'invested' a further £500 to get me going with the new strategy. The first few weeks were indifferent, I didn't take many trades and lost as much as I made, however after a month or so I followed USDCHF short (for about five hours) which they had explained where they thought the take profit areas were. Instead of taking part profits off at these levels though I added small amounts. Thus when the final (fourth) target was hit, I had three times my stake all making profit, with minimal risk as at each stage I had protected the profits with my stop movement). That really gave my account a boost and re-confirmed my belief in the “live trading room”.
I then wrote myself a plan, how many pips I need to make each day to be able to grow my account to a suitable size to be able to make up a sufficient fund to have the equivalent of three months net salary (safety net) and a trading account where risking no more than 2% per trade, if I maintained my daily pip target, I would make my current salary plus still be growing my account.
That was the easy part, but then the serious business began. The pressure was then on. I HAD to trade every day. I HAD to make my target number of pips. If I lost on a trade, I HAD to make that trade back and then trade again to get my daily pip target. If I didn't get the trades in the live room sessions I HAD to keep an eye on the charts to ensure I got the moves 'out of hours'. That was the beginning of the second end for me (as you know, you commented on my posts on the thread where I was consistently losing week in week out) But I couldn't see where I was going wrong, everyone else in the live room was making pips every session (some experienced members significant number of pips), but I knew my target was relatively modest and it didn't matter what others were making.
I was getting up earlier & earlier to get my analysis done on more charts before the live room then I had time to check them to their analysis before 7am UK time, but even doing all of this didn't improve my performance. My dream was still very much alive, I just HAD to work harder, analyse better, get in (to the move) earlier, tighten my stops, let my winners run, watch the indices, gold, read more widely, watch the higher time-frames, never trade in the CCI danger zone.........As soon as I learnt all of that, my results would turn around and I would start to see some consistent profitability, week in week out (every one gets a bad day / week / month).
It was only when you (Strat) PM'd me to suggest I stopped doing what I was doing if I wasn't getting the results I wanted that I started to think about what I was doing. I eventually (it took a couple of weeks) realised that I didn't actually understand their trading strategy at all, I was just trying to copy other, more successful people. In the past, this had worked well for me in the other aspects of life: I find traits that I admire in people and attempt to mimic them, which leads to me achieving what I wanted to. However it certainly hasn't worked in the trading environment.
I have now (as of the end of March 2009) given up on the short time frames and indeed live trading. My 'business plan' is in the bin.
I have started down The Path of Learning. I am demo trading only for the next three months. I am reading as much of the 'Strat’s stress free trading' and 'J16' threads as I possibly can, and really trying to learn the material and apply it to my trades. I am studying (basic) price action. I am attempting to refine my understanding of Support & Resistance. I am experimenting with trade management. Most importantly I am trying to learn patience.
X number of pips a day is great if you can do it (and respect those that can & do) on the low time frames in an hour or two a day. I can't. I consider what I am learning now to be more about 'investment' strategy than something I can hope to make a living from. My goals are more realistic, I am not under pressure to make enough in the next 3 or 4 years to be able to 'trade for a living'. I am hoping to be able to make a better return each year than the 'experts' that I pay considerable sums to each month to manage my pension fund.
So have I answered the question as set? probably not. Let me try again:
what was on your mind and what made you continue to trade when you were losing hand over fist?
I had a plan, which I was committed to (as its conclusion was the realisation of my dream, to be able to make a living from my home)
I HAD to achieve (or better), my daily pips target, each day, every day. There were two sessions in which to achieve this
When I was suffering from inability to pull the trigger (usually due to a losing day the day before) I could see everyone else who had taken the trades of that session declaring their pips (+30 to +100 usually), so I HAD to take the next trade because I had missed that good one. Sometimes it worked, sometimes not.
Sometimes I would have five or six trades running at the same time, all making profits. That proved to me that I could do it; for a disproportionate number of losses afterwards.
Each week I reviewed my trading and vowed that it would be better next week, after all, everyone else was doing very well, I was just a bit slower to really master the strategy. Perhaps if I got up ten minutes earlier it would give me time to do a more thorough analysis I would 'get it'

Why you did you continue to do it? what went on in your mind?
Because I am quite a determined, single minded personality. I was justifying the losses as 'learning' experience which would eventually all turn around and I would be as good as the rest of the club. I just needed to apply more effort (this has worked for me in other areas of my life, particularly my career, so why should trading be any different as I wanted it to become my new career?)

What was driving you etc., etc
I don't think this is a major reason, but I think they are really nice guys and good teachers and mentors, I didn't want to fail in their eyes, or even fail them as a student
The biggest driver for me was this (trading) is the only realistic option I have yet come across which enables individuals to earn their living from their own homes. This is something I have been trying to achieve for many years. The club was the first time I came across other people that were actually doing it, if it worked for them, why shouldn't it work for me?

With hindsight I can see that I was (and perhaps still am) very naive, I have read in many forums that 95% of people who try to make money by trading lose it and give up. The biggest clue should have been the reaction of my (now) wife when we were first dating. She found out that I had bought shares in RailTrack (admittedly it was many years before we had met), but she still found it inconsistent for some-one who is naturally very risk adverse and tight with money.......
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,391
  • Edited 3:54pm Apr 25, 2009 3:35pm | Edited 3:54pm
Hi Team Strat,

EURGBP has caught my eye this weekend so i thought i'd share my analysis with you.

The monthly is still trading an IB from December's huge bar and on Friday, price closed at the 50% Fib from the IB.

On the weekly, we have seen 4 weeks of LH & LL until this week, when price has made a slightly HL and HH, closing above the 20 EMA AND key S/R and physco 0.9000 (which also has confluence with the 50% Fib from the December IB).

On the daily, price has been coiling ever tighter since 07/12/08. After meeting resistance off the weekly and daily 20 EMA on Wednesday & Thursday, it was thrid time lucky as price finally broke through on Friday.

I know this may not go down well in a room of chartists, but for those of you who may not be aware, the British Chancellor delivered a budget this week predicting recovery figures at odds with just about every other financial body while also announcing some rather alarming borrowing figures and debt forecasts - which hammered Sterling midweek although it did recover some ground, while on Friday, the Eurozone showed signs of REAL recovery in manufacturing, despite Spain posting a 17% unemployment rate! So where would you put your money?

PA off 0.9000 and i'm in like Flynn.



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BTW: MA's are all 20's, for D/W/M and i'm loving the monochrome charts on here so when in Rome...
  • #2,392
  • Apr 25, 2009 8:59pm Apr 25, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting Baba G
has anyone had a nice time with jackos stuff?.......i have never looked at his work....
I tried his anti-hedge strategy thing for a bit, disaster. Probably operator error (i.e. me) because he seems to make it work but its not for me.
I'm on the path now, woohoo!

PS ...Hi BG
  • #2,393
  • Apr 25, 2009 11:29pm Apr 25, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting Baba G
has anyone had a nice time with jackos stuff?.......i have never looked at his work....

I have read his thread, I traded for a short time with his methods. I was actually trading a lot more often than I should have been, at least according to others on the thread. I had good results, I did not trade it long enough to tell if it was luck or due to good methods.

His strategy is so drop dead simple that most of the people on the thread try to complicate it, myself included. I never had the opportunity to use the anti hedge. Most of my entries that did not work would only go a few pips past my stop then turn around. I was also trading the method during the chop that has been going on in Eur/Usd. I am sure his method like most others would work much better once a clear longer term trend emerges. All in all, I like the way he thinks. I believe that everyone would do well to read at least enough of his thread to understand the basic concepts. If I am not mistaken Strat was one of his students, maybe he will enlighten us a bit.
  • #2,394
  • Apr 25, 2009 11:40pm Apr 25, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Team Strat,

EURGBP

On the weekly, we have seen 4 weeks of LH & LL until this week.

So where would you put your money?
Check out your weekly chart. Although the up TL on daily was broken down, Feb 13th, 2009 weekly "swing" low is very important and until that is broken, uptrend is still intact, IMO. April 20th bar was an important one and telling the intention of bulls as they were kicked out since March 19th, but until when? Do you see where the price has reversed up? Do you see where the bulls stopped pushing prices higher on Apr. 20th and 21st and why? Do you see why bulls stopped pushing higher on 22nd and where were they on 23rd?
As you can see every bar gives us lots of info to plan your trade. Hope that helps.
  • #2,395
  • Apr 26, 2009 3:59am Apr 26, 2009 3:59am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Team Strat,

EURGBP has caught my eye this weekend so i thought i'd share my analysis with you.

The monthly is still trading an IB from December's huge bar and on Friday, price closed at the 50% Fib from the IB.

On the weekly, we have seen 4 weeks of LH & LL until this week, when price has made a slightly HL and HH, closing above the 20 EMA AND key S/R and physco 0.9000 (which also has confluence with the 50% Fib from the December IB).

On the daily, price has been coiling ever tighter since 07/12/08. After meeting resistance off the weekly...
i aint putting my money Anywhere////////
  • #2,396
  • Apr 26, 2009 5:01am Apr 26, 2009 5:01am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Baba G
has anyone had a nice time with jackos stuff?.......i have never looked at his work....
Hi Baba G
I have traded Jacko's method and was a turtle for a full year.

when it comes to fuzzyMentals ( i think thats how you lot refer to the fundi stuff) i don't know anyone with there finger on the pulse like Jacko, many people in the private group even started taking trades up or down to the entry points jacko was looking for - he was that accurate

how ever i do feel his undoing was the private group and the managed fund - he started IMO to over trade to keep others happy and would regulaly be changing direction and making small changes to the method - that said overall he is still more positive in pips then other systems i have looked at but nothing like in the past or our early days in the thread.

this is the reason i started reading J16 and now Strat's thread so i can add the PA to the process - i was a serious indicator trader and sometimes even a scalper - a very stressed one at that without much to show for it, it's been a strange journey for me, when i started trading i only used TL on my FXCM brokers charts and made good money i then found FF and blew through it, thankfully i managed to stop trading before my account was empty and then the other day i got a slap from Strat, one of thoughs WTF moments THANKS STRAT.

Anti-Hedge, this is the greatest part of Jacko's sytem and one that i will be testing later when i get this PA training under my belt, it has on many occasions return much of my loses and even turned some into good winners, now imagine the power of PA mixed with it.

there must be times when we get the direction correct but get in to early, get stoped out only to see things head in our direction again - AH is a no brainer process of getting straight back in were we got out but only after we have had a our entry criteria meet to activate the AH (50pip retracement past our stop point - this will need reviewing as this is based on EU and other pairs may require a little more).

jacko's system is based on 50% fib, TL's and AH trades in the direction of the trend - it really is that simple and when the EU is trending again jacko will lead the way all the way to the bank.

hope this helps answer your questions

MPP
  • #2,397
  • Apr 26, 2009 5:21am Apr 26, 2009 5:21am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting strat
Hello Jason,

Looks like a good play down IF it breaks that huge support that is holding everything up (can't read from your chart and I don't have that pair - 0.8100?)
This might help - we not only need to break the 8100 (which has been a support line going back years 94-95, 98-99, 2002) but we also need to clear the support of the 20ema on the daily, the low of the BEEB is 0.8122, so a clear break of this below 81 would show strength in the break.

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  • #2,398
  • Apr 26, 2009 6:16am Apr 26, 2009 6:16am
Quoting Baba G
Sorry Strat.....ive been trying to get round to this all week.

Strat asked me to say a few words about Swami so you could get an idea of who he is and his work.Also our link.

I have known Swami for 13 years or so and i am proud of being godfather to his kid.

We started this quest together and over the years we have wondered around these halls of learning,sometimes meeting at cross roads,sometimes not but always knowing somewhere in this madness is a mate.

Graduation i feel is when you become a Money Manager....and for so many reasons...
SwamiS has been a money manager before now.

I wish him luck in his new venture.
  • #2,399
  • Apr 26, 2009 7:19am Apr 26, 2009 7:19am
(So, to date, our Strat Certified Trainers are:

Baba G
Blackeagle
Swami)

And not forgetting you Strat as well...wow, this is excellent, we're all very lucky to have such a great team to help us on our paths. Thank you
  • #2,400
  • Apr 26, 2009 8:52am Apr 26, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Blackeagle
Check out your weekly chart. Although the up TL on daily was broken down, Feb 13th, 2009 weekly "swing" low is very important and until that is broken, uptrend is still intact, IMO. April 20th bar was an important one and telling the intention of bulls as they were kicked out since March 19th, but until when? Do you see where the price has reversed up? Do you see where the bulls stopped pushing prices higher on Apr. 20th and 21st and why? Do you see why bulls stopped pushing higher on 22nd and where were they on 23rd?
As you can see every bar...
Thank you for your feedback Blackeagle. On the 20th and 21st the Bulls pushed against 0.9000, trying hard to break through, on Friday, they managed it.

(There is also some resistance at 0.9080 from the 9th April and Early to mid February, but i think breaking back through 0.9000 is significant)

Thanks again Blackeagle.
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